Household Fertility Research Articles

Digital Inclusive Financial and Household Fertility:Discoveries Based on Dual Machine Learning Algorithm

The continuous decline in fertility rates and the postponement of childbirth represent significant social issues in China. Utilizing data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) spanning 2013 to 2019, this paper employs a dual machine learning algorithm (DML) to estimate the causal effects of digital inclusive finance (DIF) on family size and the age at first childbirth, while also exploring the underlying mechanisms. The findings indicate that DIF has a modest positive impact on the household fertility rate and a notable negative effect on the age at first childbirth. Specifically, DIF has contributed to a slight increase in the number of births by reducing the opportunity cost of childbirth for households and has significantly lowered the age of first childbirth by mitigating income fluctuations. Given its positive effects, DIF should be actively promoted.

Intrahousehold Decision Making and Fertility Choices in Rural Senegal and Uganda

Feminist economic approaches have transformed mainstream economic analysis to better account for intrahousehold decision making. To quantify decision making, studies resort to self-reported survey-based measures, derived from questions directed to household members, or proxy-variable methods. This study uses a choice experiment, a stated preference method, implemented in rural Senegal and Uganda and specifically distinguishes between individual and household choices to analyze spouses’ preferences on fertility and child raising and calculate a decision-making coefficient. Findings show individual fertility preferences of men and women cannot substitute for household-level choices, and intrahousehold decision making concerning fertility and child raising is region specific. While in Uganda household fertility choices reflect a balance between the spouses’ fertility preferences, in Senegal these choices seem more dominated by the husband’s preference. This study demonstrates the importance of considering the adequate decision-making unit when designing family planning and child-centered programs and of using a region-specific approach. HIGHLIGHTS Analyzing spousal fertility and child-raising choices provides an alternative to traditional proxies for intrahousehold decision making. Choice experimental data and methods enables the calculation of a decision-making coefficient. Individual fertility preferences cannot substitute for household-level choices. Considering the adequate gender and decision-making unit is crucial in designing family planning programs.

Socio-economic and Demographic Determinants of Household Fertility Decisions

This study investigates the socio-economic and demographic determinants of household fertility decisions in Nigeria. Using the family system model as framework, a cross-sectional survey design in a retrospective study was adopted. Quantitative data were purposively gotten from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) household recode dataset. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and Logistic Regressions at P<0.05. The mean age at first birth of respondents was 18.8±4.0 years. The mean of Children ever-born was 5.9±2.8. The Children ever-born was highest in the North West region (36.7%), while the South East had the least (12.6%) sum of Children ever-born in the six regions. The relationship between children ever-born and the age at first birth is statistically significant (χ2= 8334.4, p=<0.001). Women with all living are 2.0 times (OR=2.071, CI=1.987-2.158) more likely to increase their Children ever-born than women who have experienced the loss of a child. Women who have no formal education are 5.8 times (OR=5.835, CI=5.504-6.186) more likely to increase their Children ever-born than women with tertiary education. Women who do not utilize contraception in any way and those who used the folkloric method were respectively 0.8 times and 5.5 times more likely to increase their children ever-born than women using modern contraceptives respectively. Based on the findings, it is recommended that fertility controls must be prioritized, specifically by encouraging girl child education across the nation.

Evaluation of physical and chemical characteristics of wastewater and sludge of Zahedan urban wastewater treatment plant for reuse

Following the water shortage in the world, the use of wastewater as a sustainable resource has been considered in large volume. The study conducted to evaluate the physical and chemical characteristics of the wastewater and sludge of the Zahedan urban wastewater treatment plant showed that the wastewater and sludge treatment system of the treatment plant has high efficiency and effectiveness in removing the investigated parameters. The investigated parameters in the effluent included Chemical oxygen demand (COD), Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and Total suspended solids (TSS), turbidity, temperature, nitrate, nitrite, phosphate, pH, zinc, cobalt, lead and copper. Also, the investigated parameters in the sludge included Mixed liquor suspended solids (MLSS), Mixed liquor volatile suspended solids (MLVSS), pH, electrical conductivity and heavy metals. The results showed that the average concentration of metals in the treated effluent is Zn > Mn > Cu > Pb > Ni > Cr > Cd ،and Chemical oxygen demand and Biochemical oxygen demand in the effluent of this treatment plant are on average 171 and 44.4 mg/L, respectively, and its discharge in surface water is limited, but it can be applied for agriculture. Also, the purified sludge had the necessary standards and could be used as soil or household fertilizer and compost for agricultural land.

Digital inclusive and rural household fertility decision-making

This paper selects data from the CHFS in 2017, 2019, and 2021 to explore the relationship between the development of digital inclusive finance and the fertility decisions of rural families. It is found that digital inclusive finance plays a positive role in rural families' fertility decisions in general; the higher the level of social pension security, the greater the negative effect of digital inclusive finance on rural families' fertility decisions. Digital inclusive finance promotes families' positive fertility decisions by relieving rural families from liquidity constraints.

Modeling multi-scale influences on household lawncare decisions: Formal and informal neighborhood conforming effects on fertilizer use

Residential lawncare is understood to be a multi-scale process. In this article, we estimate a statistical model of household fertilizer decisions that characterizes household- and neighborhood-scale influences, emphasizing both informal and formal neighborhood effects. We develop a novel methodological approach that leverages spatially explicit parcel-level tax assessor data to examine informal neighborhood conforming pressures based on quantifiable metrics of property characteristics for each sampled household relative to surrounding neighbors. Using survey data from 2,635 households in the Baltimore metro region (in Maryland, USA), the statistical model is estimated for two sequenced decisions faced by households—whether to fertilize, and if so with what frequency. Results reveal that several household demographic and informal neighborhood variables are significant for one decision but not the other, demonstrating the importance of disaggregating these two decision stages. Informal neighborhood effects are primarily significant for the initial decision on whether to fertilize, perhaps because this decision is more readily observable by surrounding neighbors. Effects of formal neighborhood characteristics are significant in both fertilizer decisions but vary between homeowner and neighborhood associations and over the two sequential decisions. The widespread availability of parcel-level tax assessor data enables application of this novel approach in other regions to examine informal neighborhood pressures on fertilizer use or other lawncare behaviors.

Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility

Abstract This paper examines whether monetary policy pass-through to mortgage interest rates affects household fertility decisions. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in households’ eligibility for a rate adjustment, coupled with the large reductions in the monetary policy rate that occurred during the Great Recession in the U.K. and U.S. We estimate that each one percentage point drop in the policy rate increased birth rates amongst households eligible for a rate adjustment by 3%. Our results provide new evidence on the nature of monetary policy transmission to households and suggest a new mechanism via which mortgage contract structures can affect both aggregate demand and supply.

Increasing inequality and voting for basic income: Could gender inequality worsen?

This paper examines the link between political support for basic income funded by linear income taxation and income inequality by household and gender. We develop a model with an increasingly right-skewed distribution of skill across households and a gender wage gap within households. Household preference for basic income decreases as skill level increases and female labour supply decreases with time spent rearing children. Majority voting supports the basic income scheme as mean relative to median household skill increases. Household fertility and skill level are inversely related under the scheme. An increase in the marginal tax rate to fund required government revenue could exacerbate gender inequality by reducing female labour supply. Quantitative illustrations suggest that the recent peak in the mean to median wage gap would provide voting support for basic income from the majority of households in the United States. Basic income of $12,000 conditional on below-median wages would increase government spending by 10.8% which, if funded by progressive income taxation, could reduce the adverse effects on gender inequality.

Assessment of profitability and risk management in vegetable production in Ogun State, Nigeria

The study examined the performance and risk management of vegetable production in Ogun State, Nigeria. A multistage sampling procedure was used to select 120 respondents for the study. Data were collected through a well-structured questionnaire and personal interview schedule. Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics such as Ordinary Least Square (OLS) were used for the analysis of this study. The results found out that lack of discriminating pricing system, conflict in policy making, and high cost of inputs affect the market prices and as well serve as the main production risks that were observed by the farmers in the area. The average cost incurred for the production was about ₦6,908, while the total revenue accrued was ₦41,751. The gross margin and net farm income realized per production season were ₦36,973 and ₦34,843, respectively. The value (6.0) of return on investment showed that farmers realized times six of their investment. The variables such as household size, farm size, fertilizer application and equipment were the main determinants of vegetable production in the area. Also, the main challenges faced by the farmers were the infestation of pests and diseases, inadequate funds and climate change consequences. Therefore, it is recommended that the vegetable farmers should be encouraged through technical training on innovative approach to price determination and forming of functioning market structure in the area.

Influence of the Two-Child Policy on Household Second Child Fertility and Consumption: Investigation Based on CFPS Data

The two-child policy is an important public policy to promote the optimization of population structure and economic and social development in China. Based on the four-phase data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper evaluates the impacts of the “single two-child” and “universal two-child” policies on the household’s fertility and consumption. This paper finds that: (1) The “single two-child” policy does not affect household fertility and consumption, basically supporting the academic common wisdom that the “single two-child” policy does not work as expected. (2) The “universal two-child” policy has a weak impact on the birth of second child in non-only-child families. The probability of having second child in non-only-child families increases by about 2.3 percent compared to all households before the policy. (3) The “single two-child” policy does not affect household consumption, while the “universal two-child” policy significantly reduces the consumption of non-only-child families with second child. From the view of household consumption structure, the development and enjoyment consumption of non-only-child families with second child has decreased significantly, but the survival consumption has not decreased obviously. (4) A further analysis of the impact of the “universal two-child” policy on household consumption reveals that housing loans have a negative effect on the consumption of non-only-child families with second child. (5) The “universal two-child” policy mainly affects the consumption of low-income families and “out-of-system” families with second child, but has no effect on high-income families and “in-system” families. This study provides empirical evidence to evaluate the effect of the two-child policy and its impact on household consumption.The adjustment of fertility policy has been widely concerned by all walks of life. Its implementation has brought more space for family choice. However, how to better stimulate the fertility desire of target families and stimulate family consumption is a problem we need to think about. With the aging of non-only “post-70s” and “post-80s”, “post-90s” gradually enter the period of marriage and childbearing. Using the current two-child fertility rate to predict, the number of two-child births in this generation is not optimistic. In terms of future policy design, China should shift from birth control to birth encourage, and let the choice return to family. China should speed up the establishment of policy support system under the new fertility pattern, and make full use of welfare policies such as education, medical treatment and old-age care to improve the family’s internal fertility desire, therefore change the current low fertility status quo. The “universal two-child” policy has a certain inhibitory effect on the consumption of low-income families and “out-of-system” families. Policy in the future should focus on supporting these families to improve their consumption ability and consumption level.

Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility

This paper examines whether monetary policy pass-through to mortgage interest rates affects household fertility decisions. Using administrative data on mortgages and births in the UK, our empirical strategy exploits variation in the timing of when families were eligible for a rate adjustment, coupled with the large reductions in the monetary policy rate that occurred during the Great Recession. We estimate that each 1 percentage point drop in the policy rate increased birth rates by 2 percent. In aggregate, this pass-through of accommodative monetary policy to mortgage rates was sufficiently large to outweigh the headwinds of the Great Recession and prevent a “baby bust” in the UK, in contrast to the US. Our results provide new evidence on the nature of monetary policy transmission to households and suggest a new mechanism via which mortgage contract structures can affect both aggregate demand and supply.

The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence From Colombia’s Peace Agreement With the FARC

Violent environments are known to affect household fertility choices, demand for health services and health outcomes of newborns. Using administrative data with a difference-in- differences, we study how the end of the 50 years old Colombian conflict with FARC modified such decisions and outcomes in traditionally affected areas of the country. Results indicate that generalized reductions in total fertility rate were slowed down for municipalities traditionally affected by conflict as a result of the permanent ceasefire declared by the FARC insurgency. Total fertility rate observed a relative increase of 2.6% in the formerly conflict-affected areas, in all age groups. However, no impact was found for demand of health care services, neonatal and infant mortality rates, or birth outcomes such as the incidence of low weight at birth or the percentage of preterm births. Our evidence shows that municipalities with mines victims and expelled population by forced displacement before the ceasefire have significantly higher total fertility rate in the four years following the ceasefire. We argue that the mechanism behind this result is the optimism to raise the children in a better environment due to the reduction in victimization in areas that experience FARC violence.

Fertility and Child Occupation: Theory and Evidence from Senegal

This paper analyzes household fertility and child occupation decisions in a risky environment. Fertility decisions are made first, when only the distribution of shocks is known. When shocks are realized and fertility is fixed, parents adapt by allocating children's occupations, i.e. school, paid work and domestic chores. Fertility is decreasing with the shock probability and increasing with parental permanent income. Households facing an adverse shock make more use of child labor and send fewer children to school, unless the total number of children is small. These predictions are tested with data from the Senegalese SEHW (2003) following this two-step methodology. A Poisson model estimates the number of children with classical instruments and household-level information on shock distribution, confirming the theory's predictions on fertility. A multivariate Tobit model estimates the determinants of children occupations, including the occurrence of shocks and accounting for the endogeneity of fertility. The number of children increases (decreases) the probability of child specialization (multiple activities). Shock-related variables have an adverse effect on schooling.

OPTIMALISASI NILAI GUNA SAMPAH SEBAGAI PUPUK KOMPOS UNTUK BUDIDAYA SAYURAN SECARA VERTIKULTUR

Hygiene is an important aspect in everyday life. However, in some areas there is still waste that is just thrown away and mixed between organic and inorganic waste. These wastes should still be utilized as products that are useful for everyday life or used to increase the value of waste by making products that are worth selling. For example in an organic waste can be used to make compost fertilizer (compost can come from leftovers such as leftover vegetables and fruits that cannot be eaten), while inorganic waste can be used for making verticulture (this product can be used as a place to grow vegetables or flowers). The socialization and training in making compost for vegetable cultivation vertically is one way to increase the interest and talent of the community in Cibitung Kulon village. The compost training is not only used to grow vegetables vertically in the yard of the house and in the cultivation of vegetables in the farmer's garden, but it is also intended to help farmers in the maintenance / cultivation of rice plants or food crops in order to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers. This verticulture training in composting and vegetable cultivation is conducted in August 2018 in the Cibitung Kulon Village Office Hall RW 7, Pamijahan District, Bogor. The results of the implementation of training activities in making compost and growing vegetables vertically in Cibinong Kulon, RW 07, Pamijahan District, Bogor went well. This can be seen from the enthusiasm of the many participants present and the involvement of the community in following a series of activities that have been well prepared from the beginning to the end of the activity. Keywords: Environment, Household Fertilizer, Hygiene, Organic, Plants

Envy, inequality and fertility

This study seeks to examine the consequences of “keeping up with the Joneses” on household fertility outcomes. “Envy” is introduced in a simple “quality-quantity” trade-off type of fertility model, where the trade-off is induced by the fact that being out of the labor market due to child-bearing is more expensive for people with higher human capital levels. The effect of introducing upward-looking “envy” in the model is that households, notably low-income ones, reduce fertility in an attempt to emulate consumption levels of their high-income neighbors. This effect is stronger the larger the reference consumption—that is, in areas with higher income inequality, which are characterized by longer right tails of income distributions. It follows that if households indeed tend to “keep up with the Joneses,” one should expect lower fertility rates in areas with higher income inequality compared to more equal areas. The empirical analysis using the American Community Survey confirms that indeed, households residing in more unequal metropolitan areas tend to have fewer children than households residing in more equal metropolitan areas.

Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic

A fundamental question about human behavior is whether fertility responds to disease risk. The standard economic theory of household fertility decision-making generates ambiguous predictions, and the response has large implications for human welfare. We examine the fertility response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries. Instrumental variable (IV) estimates using distance to the origin of the pandemic suggest that HIV/AIDS has increased the total fertility rate (TFR) and the number of surviving children. These results rekindle the debate about the fertility response to disease risk, particularly the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and highlight the question of whether the HIV/AIDS pandemic has reduced GDP per capita.

Abolishing user fees, fertility choice, and educational attainment

This study examines the effect of abolishing user fees from the maternal and child health (MCH) services on child quantity and quality in South Africa in the post-apartheid era. Exploiting exogenous variation in exposure to the policy effect, we find that the policy resulted in lower fertility in households and greater educational attainment of children a decade later. The absence of the effects among children not subject to the policy eliminates channels through heterogeneous preexisting trends or unobserved concurrent changes. The important policy implications are (i) the theoretical predictions of the child quantity-quality tradeoff model characterize reproductive behavior among parents in developing countries; and (ii) MCH policy serves as a motivating force underlying the demographic transition and human capital development.

Economic conditions and birth spacing in Colombia: a semi-parametric approach

This document aims to provide evidence on the association between economic conditions and household fertility decisions related to birth spacing by using a Cox proportional hazards model. The contribution of the paper is twofold: first, it adds to the scarce existing literature on this topic for Latin America by offering evidence for Colombia; second, local heterogeneity in economic performance is considered by using regional economic growth as a shock potentially modifying household decisions. We find that better economic performance is associated with reductions in birth spacing. Thus, it seems that demand for children might be procyclical, an income effect predominating; however, when good conditions persist, demand for children decreases, suggesting the dominance of a substitution effect. An alternative interpretation is simply that economic growth increases the probability of having children, automatically reducing the risk after the boom.

Child Labor Laws and Household Fertility Decisions: Evidence from Nigeria

Child Labor Laws and Household Fertility Decisions: Evidence from Nigeria

The Effect of Cash Transfers on Fertility: Evidence from Argentina

In 2009 Argentina introduced a large poverty-alleviation program (AUH) that provides monthly cash transfers per child to households without workers in the formal sector. In this paper we study the potential unintended effect of this program on fertility. We apply a difference-in-difference strategy comparing the probability of having a new child among eligible and ineligible mothers both before and after the program inception. The intention to treat estimations suggest a significant positive impact on fertility in households with at least one child (around 2 percentage points), but no significant effect on childless households. Given the short time window since the implementation of the AUH, we are unable to identify whether this positive effect reflects changes in the timing of births or in the equilibrium number of children.