Federal Plan Research Articles

Новые национальные проекты: взгляд в будущее

The list of national projects of the “second wave” approved by the Government of the Russian Federation is quite wide and covers a variety of areas of development of the country’s socio-economic complex. National projects 2019–2024 developed in three main areas (“Human capital”, “Comfortable living environment” and “Economic growth”) and approved by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation “On national goals and strategic objectives of the development of the Russian Federation until 2024”. Officially, the program of national projects was launched in 2019 for a period until 2024, but in July 2020 it was decided to postpone the achievement of a number of indicators until 2030 and adjust the program taking into account changed circumstances, which affected not only the composition and structure of existing national projects, but also led to the development of 4 new projects aimed at developing tourism, nuclear energy, cybersecurity systems and unmanned aircraft. An important task in the implementation of national projects is to achieve a clear relationship between the amount of funding and the planned result, a system of indicators that is not yet sufficiently developed, and many indicators do not have approved calculation methods and are not included in the federal statistical work plan. The main problems in the implementation of national projects are the result of the unpreparedness of management personnel at all levels to work on projects of great social importance under conditions of limited budget and time. A culture of project management has not yet been formed, and an atmosphere of intolerance towards the managerial illiteracy of direct executors, including managers, has not been created. Meanwhile, for the successful implementation of priority national projects implemented until 2024, it is necessary to take into account the experience accumulated to date, which can largely be considered positive.

Między traumą Trianon a integralnością Korony św. Stefana. Koncepcje i próby odbudowy Wielkich Węgier 1920-1947

The goal of the article is to undertake a cause and effect analysis of political events and to present the effects of the Treaty of Trianon as factors significantly influencing Hungarian efforts to preserve the integrity of the Holy Crown. Stefan. The analysis of the achievements of historiography leads to the conclusion that finding a way to connect the “lost lands” with the Kingdom was supposed to be an antidote to political, social and economic problems resulting from territorial losses. Opportunities to implement the idea of Greater Hungary until the mid-1930s were seen in federal plans integrating state organisms located along the Danube. It is not possible to implement the plans drawn up, e.g. by Oszkár Jászi, Elmér Hantos, Gusztáv Gratz and Miklós Makáy, as well as the deepening economic difficulties, were to cause that even at the ideological level the Hungarians were to abandon all attempts at a federation. Hopes of crossing out Trianon would find their outlet in alliances with countries striving to revise the treaties concluded after the First World War. The relationship with the Third Reich allowed for a short-term recovery of fragments of Slovakia, Transylvania and Transcarpathian Ruthenia and gave hope for a return to the pre-1914 borders. However, these acquisitions proved to be unsustainable. The conclusion of peace in Paris in 1947 closed the way for the restitution of Greater Hungary. Although nowadays both the concepts of the Danube federation and the postulates of territorial changes have only the value of a historical argument, they do not mean the abandonment of the idea of Nagy-Magyarország. This concept has now only changed its formula in the direction of connecting Hungarians living in neighboring countries with the Motherland.

Analyzing the effectiveness of tourist flows based on the assessment of tourism's contribution to the regional economy

Subject. The article investigates the effectiveness of tourist flows. Objectives. The aim is to study the problem of assessing the effectiveness of tourism, considering the existing economic potential, the volume of tourist flows, achievements and challenges in the domestic tourism development for effective and efficient management of the industry. Methods. We employed methods of systems, comparative, logical, and statistical analysis. Results. We devised a methodology to calculate the specific value added and analyzed it for Russia’s regions. The findings can be used to monitor the level of tourism development and elaborate strategic planning documents for domestic tourism development in regions. Conclusions. The existing methodology for calculating the tourism industry contribution to the economy of regions makes it possible to use its indicators as a tool for assessing the effectiveness of the tourist flow based on specific gross value added (GVA) of the tourism industry by region. Our calculations show that there is a significant variation in the specific GVA of the tourism industry in the subjects of the Russian Federation, due to the peculiarities of the methodology and differences in the economic and climatic development of the regions. The analysis of the obtained specific GVA of the tourism industry enables to highlight several groups of regions to determine the possible size and direction of tourist flows, taking into account their economic efficiency. The findings may be helpful for formulating recommendations to evaluate the effectiveness of tourism development, when regional and federal strategic planning documents are elaborated.

PHC service resilience during COVID19 in Brazil’s Northeast

Abstract COVID19 affected health system, including its ability to care for other health issues. Health System Resilience is related to the ability of a health service to continue to offer ongoing care for health issues while under a stressor. Brazil has a public-funded unified health system with a Primary Health Care (PHC) organized by the Family Health Strategy (FHS), which comprise a family doctor, a nurse, a dentist, nurse auxiliaries and Community Health Agents (CHAs). The CHAs are individuals from the community trained to provide a range of services in the territories, including home visits, and act as liaisons between health units and communities-key informant on the reality faced in the public services during COVID19. Brazil's northeast region is one of the country's poorest regions, with poor social indicators, including low HDI and high illiteracy, utilization of Brazil's conditional cash transfer program and COVID19 mortality. This study evaluated aspects regarding the impact of COVID19 in PHC activities related to diabetes&hypertension, tuberculosis, leprae, pre-natal care, pap smear and oral health care in Brazil's northeast region public service. Questionnaires were applied to CHAs from 8 different cities - 4 capitals and 4 country-side municipalities. A total of 1935 CHAs were interviewed. The data show unequal COVID19 impact in PHC (different impact of COVID19 in the various municipalities and health care services). For 21.3% of CHW, the activities related to pre-natal care diminished during 2021 COVID19 pandemia, this percentage was 25.6%, 30.2%, 41.9%, 79.9% and 79.3% for tuberculosis, leprae, diabetes & hypertension, pap smear and oral health respectively in the PHC. The lack of a unified federal plan, due to a political misleading perspective may have negatively influenced the PHC. Understand how PHC was affected in different scenarios is important to strength the system in a more resilient manner, which is central in the event of other stressful events Key messages • There was an unequal impact of COVID19 on different PHC public services, which may be due to political tension and lack of federal guidance of the health system. • Understand how PHC was affected is important to reorganize the system in a more resilient manner, which is central in the event of another COVID19 wave or other stressful event.

Evaluating achieving tobacco control targets in Belgium using modelled projections

Abstract Background Tobacco use in Belgium remains a key public health concern with an estimated 15% of adults reporting daily tobacco use in 2018. In 2022, the Belgian government launched the “Interfederal Strategy 2022-2028 for a Smoke-free Generation.” The strategy outlines a number of targets for reducing daily tobacco use among adults 15+ years and young adults 15-24 years. We evaluate the feasibility of achieving these targets given current daily smoking trajectories at a national and regional level. Methods We modelled time trends of smoking in Belgium based on repeated cross-sectional data taken from the nationally representative Belgian Health Interview Survey. We applied a Bayesian inference model, the integrated nested Laplace approximation, to obtain a time series of daily tobacco use for adults by age, sex, and region of Belgium from 1997 to 2018. We then projected this model to 2070 using population projections from the Belgian Federal Planning bureau for population distributions. We compared trajectories with targets from the Interfederal Strategy to assess whether they are likely to be achieved. Results The national target of reducing daily smoking among adults 15+ years to 10% by 2028 and 5% by 2040 will not be achieved on current trajectories. Wallonia has the highest level of people smoking daily and is projected to miss the targets by the largest margin. Flanders is expected to reach the 10% threshold by 2032. The target for reduction of prevalence of daily smoking among youth 15-24 years to 6% by 2028 will not be achieved before 2040. Smoking among the youngest age group (15-24 years) is decreasing rapidly with prevalence of daily smoking in that age group projected to be < 2% in Flanders by 2059. Conclusions No region of Belgium is expected to achieve targets for reduction in daily smoking given current trajectories. Tobacco control policies in the country should be re-assessed, targeted and intensified. Key messages • The Belgian national target of 5% daily smoking prevalence in adults by 2040 will not be achieved. • Differences in smoking trajectories in Belgium exist by age and region; tobacco control policies should be targeted.

Rapid changes in age structure, mortality, and escapement accompanied stock recovery of the estuarine Red Drum population of Texas

AbstractObjectiveWe analyzed a fishery‐independent catch time series in the context of predicted historical age structure of Red Drum Sciaenops ocellatus for the years 1980–2019. This time series roughly coincided with closure of the commercial fishery in Texas (in 1981) and federal waters (in 1987). Changes in size and age were used to estimate changes in mortality and offshore escapement.MethodsOtoliths collected from Red Drum between 1997 and 2015 in Texas were used to create seasonal length‐at‐age growth functions, which were then used to estimate ages (based on total length) of all Red Drum encountered in fishery‐independent gill‐net samples collected by the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department during 1980–2019 (total n = 311,150). Temporal changes in observed body size and overall catch were used to predict annualized changes in mean age, mortality, and offshore escapement of the estuarine population.ResultThe initial 14‐year period (1980–1993) was characterized by rapid increases in mean catch per hour and mean total length (mm) in fishery‐independent samples, followed by relative stability for the remainder of the time series. There was a 55% increase in estimated mean age of Red Drum when comparing 1980 (mean age = 0.84 year) to 2019 (1.30 years). There were also rapid and significant declines in total mortality (Z; estimated via catch curves) and increases in offshore escapement (estimated indirectly from mortality) in the initial recovery period.ConclusionThe current estuarine population of Red Drum in Texas is significantly larger and older than it was at the onset of fishery management measures, and offshore escapement is annually well above the current target level of 30% set by the federal fisheries management plan. These findings suggest that regulations put into effect starting in the 1980s have succeeded in recovering the estuarine Red Drum population in Texas.

Breaking wind: A comparison between U.S. and European approaches in offshore wind energy leadership in the North Atlantic region

The United States has only recently begun investing in commercial-scale offshore wind energy (OWE). Although the United States is slow to progress, it is uniquely positioned to build on the existing knowledge that coastal European countries have applied for their own energy transitions. In this study, we analyze how federal and regional plans for expanding the OWE sector in the United States brought to the surface decade-long tensions related to multi-scale governance mismatches, jurisdictional conflicts, and unclear pathways for implementing national industrial policies. Drawing upon the European experience with OWE, we employ a dynamic multi-level perspective framework enriched by socio-ecological elements to examine the United States energy transition through its most promising technology. From our framework we identify six categories of OWE developments characterized by both unique and shared elements between the United States and European coastal countries. These elements are: (1) role of local communities, (2) governance structures, (3) multi-scale government interactions, (4) regional socioeconomic structures, (5) socio-ecological impacts, and (6) relationships with existing industries. Drawing upon our analysis, we identify and conceptually map four research areas in need of further development for the United States and the research community— (1) knowledge, (2) potential, (3) adaptation, and (4) learning. These insights provide critical information to ensure that the United States expansion into offshore energy generation is characterized by elements of justice, equity, and inclusive regional economic development.

Demokracja bezpośrednia w Austrii – praktyka i perspektywy rozwoju

DIRECT DEMOCRACY IN AUSTRIA – PRACTICE AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS First, the article traces the historical development of and legal regulations related to the instruments of direct democracy in the Second Republic. It details such forms of direct democracy as: the obligatory and optional referendum (Volksabstimmung), consultative referendum (Volksbefragung) and popular legislative initiative (Volksbegehren), as well as provides historical examples of their use. The latter part of the article elaborates on the positions of the main political parties in Austria and federal coalition plans for the years 2003-2020 against the backdrop of popularisation of forms of direct democracy. The research hypothesis adopted assumes that there is no agreement among the Austrian establishment as to whether direct democracy should become a permanent and significant supplement to representative democracy. The scarce interest in referendums and non-binding (consultative) referendums in Austria results from institutional and legal barriers, which make it difficult to initiate any forms of direct democracy, as well as from the huge influence of political parties that support representative democracy.

Aggregating social benefits of endangered species protection: the case of the Cook Inlet beluga whale

ABSTRACT The Cook Inlet beluga whale (CIBW) is an endangered whale found in waters off the state of Alaska that is protected under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The federal recovery plan estimates recovery costs will total $73 million (in 2013 dollars). In this study, we use data from a stated preference discrete choice experiment (CE) study to estimate the aggregate benefits of recovering the CIBW and generally for improving its conservation status and reducing extinction risk. Estimated CE models account and test for utility scale heterogeneity, attribute non-attendance, self-selection bias, and demographic effects. Aggregation methods that differ in adjustments made to the mean household welfare and/or to the number of population units are compared by assessing their impact on the resulting aggregate (population-level) welfare estimates. Alaska households are willing to pay between $34 million (95% CI of [$25 million, $44 million]) and $103 million ([$74 million, $131 million]) for full recovery of the CIBW, depending upon the model and aggregation assumptions. While some of the state-level recovery value estimates are below the total cost of combined federal and state recovery actions, accounting for welfare benefits beyond the state of Alaska justifies recovery actions by the benefit–cost criterion.

Lawfare in America: A Commentary on the Standing Rock Sioux

ABSTRACT Renewed emphasis by the executive branch regarding the value of indigenous knowledge in government policy hints at the long historical trajectory of eliding native perspectives in American federal planning. Even liberal democracies can marginalize social groups through the enforcement or threat of enforcement of laws. Rules-based societies therefore can exercise disproportionate command through the application of laws in which sanctions are attached to noncompliance. This article follows Charles Dunlap’s definition of lawfare, where laws are applied, or misapplied, as a substitute for military action in order to achieve an operational objective. Lawfare so defined is a valuable lens through which to view the Standing Rock Sioux protest against the Dakota Access Pipeline, a more than 1000 mile long underground oil pipeline from North Dakota to Illinois. This protest was effectively criminalized and dissent met with sanctions including incarceration. The case illustrates the fragility of rights when the law is applied to achieve operational objectives.

Neue Prioritäten in der Bundesverkehrswegeplanung?

Abstract In the course of the so-called requirements plan review, a fundamental discussion is taking place about the priorities in federal transport infrastructure planning. Numerous interest groups are calling for a sole focus on climate protection and environmental goals. This paper argues that such a miopic orientation of transport infrastructure planning will lead to productivity and growth losses.The key lever of climate policy, rather, is decarbonization of transport activities.

Rates of surgical site infections and length of stay following major gynecologic oncology surgery for patients on federally funded insurance: A 6-month retrospective cohort.

e18627 Background: An estimated 94,000 women have newly diagnosed gynecologic cancer annually–with rates increasing over the last 20 years. The incidence of gynecologic cancers is known to vary by insurance status; more specifically, uninsured or federally insured women are more likely to have advanced-stage disease at the time of diagnosis and worse overall survival compared to privately insured women. Surgical site infections (SSIs) complicate up to 4% of hysterectomies in the United States. Other post-operative sequelae, such as wound dehiscence and 30-day readmission, further complicate the post-surgical course. We sought to determine differences in postoperative outcomes for patients with private and federally-funded insurance plans, such as SSI, length of hospital stay, and 30-day wound dehiscence, and 30 all-cause readmission following gynecologic oncologic surgery. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study from a large metropolitan academic health system between January 1st, 2022, to June 30th, 2022. The study population included adult women who received gynecologic oncologic surgery–surgical staging or interval cytoreduction. Postoperative complications were compared to national rates from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Project (NSQIP) database. Trends were analyzed using chi-squared analysis and a two-sample t-test. Results: Over our 6-month study period, 233 patients underwent gynecologic oncologic surgery. Robotic-assisted hysterectomies were the most common (27.89%, n = 65), followed by total abdominal hysterectomies (21%, n = 49), laparoscopic hysterectomies (7.72%, n = 18), and supracervical hysterectomies (3%, n = 7). More patients required bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (63.51%, n = 148) compared to unilateral procedures (9.87%, n = 23). Although most patients had private insurance (73.39%, n = 171), 26.1% had federally-funded health plans (n = 62)–Medicaid and Medicare. Rates of wound dehiscence were higher than the NSQIP rate of 1% among our cohort (3%, n = 7). Although there was a high rate of 30-day readmission (9.44%, n = 22) compared to NSQIP rate of 6.1%, the incidence of SSI was fewer than the NSQIP rate of 4% (3.86%, n = 9). Upon intersectional analysis, patients with federal insurance plans had higher rates of SSI (n = 5, p < 0.05). Specifically, Medicare patients had a longer average length of stay at 2.64 days (p < 0.05) compared to a study average of 1.76 days. Conclusions: Patients with federal insurance had longer hospital stays and higher rates of SSI compared to those with private plans. There was no difference in 30-day wound dehiscence or 30-day all-cause readmission between study populations. More studies are needed to risk-stratify patients by insurance type before gynecologic oncology surgery to improve postoperative outcomes further.

The effect of paid parental leave on breastfeeding, parental health and behavior

Little is known about the effects of paid parental leave (in particular fathers’ quotas) on parental health and involvement. In this paper, we exploit a reform that took place in the Canadian province of Quebec to address that important topic. In 2006, Quebec opted out of the federal plan and established its own parental insurance plan, named the Quebec Parental Insurance Plan (QPIP). This program has lowered the eligibility criteria, increased income replacement and introduced fathers’ quotas. Using three data sets, we investigate the impact of the QPIP on breastfeeding and parental health and behavior. Our results show that the reform increased breastfeeding duration. The results also suggest that the policy had limited positive effects on parental health and parenting practices.

Anti-science conspiracies pose new threats to US biomedicine in 2023.

Anti-science conspiracies pose new threats to US biomedicine in 2023.

Development of Dairy Cattle Breeding in the Regions of the Russian Federation: Economic and Statistical Study

The article reflects the main results of the statistical analysis of the development of dairy cattle breeding in the Russian regions. The relevance of the topic is due to the strategic value of the industry, serving the needs of the population of the country's regions in demanded food products. Based on statistical data compiled by the Federal State Statistics Service, the dynamics of milk production and the number of live-stock and cattle of dairy breeds are analyzed. In addition, an assessment is made of the impact of climate on the industry in question, as well as a number of other factors on milk yields in individual regions. To deepen the inter-regional comparative analysis of the problems of the development of dairy cattle breeding, the author used the hierarchical clustering method. To do this, the author built a system of indicators that characterizes the industry in question, the effectiveness of its functioning, and the factors of its development, while the calculations used the average annual values of each indicator for the period from 2018 to 2021. The preference for the 5-cluster structural model is substantiated, which reflects the differentiation of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of the development of dairy cattle breeding. The conclusion summarizes the results of an interregional comparative analysis of the development of the considered segment of the economy, which, in the author's opinion, should be taken into account when improving and optimizing both the federal program and regional plans for socio-economic development, increasing the welfare of the Russian population, equalizing the levels of economic development of individual regions of the country.

Federal spending planning in Germany: accuracy of projections

The article considers the decrease in the reliability of expenditures’ budgeting in Germany that has occurred in recent years. The author used the data on the formation and execution of a five-year financial plan for 2017-2021. The comparison of this plan with its execution was carried out in four profiles: total expenses by functional classification, total expenses by economic classification, current expenses by functional classification, capital expenses by functional classification. Using the same methodology, the author previously compared plans for 2002-2006, 2007-2011, 2012-2016 with their execution. The results of the calculations made it possible to identify areas with increased and decreased accuracy of budget planning, key areas of significant overspending of budget funds in 2020-2021 and reasons for the deviations. In addition, the author analysed the most important consequence of the deterioration in the accuracy of budget projections - the return to the deficit and net borrowings of the federal budget. The dynamics of expenses, net borrowings and the ratio of net borrowing to expenses in 2002-2021 and a plan for these parameters for 2022-2026 are presented. Based on the data reviewed, a conclusion was drawn about the critical importance of 2023 for restoring the lost reliability of federal spending planning.

Was priority setting included in the Canadian COVID-19 pandemic planning and preparedness? A comparative analysis of COVID-19 pandemic plans from eight provinces and three territories

BackgroundVariation in priorities during pandemic planning among the federal, provincial and territorial jurisdictions are thought to have impacted Canada's ability to effectively control the spread of the COVID-19 virus, and protect the most vulnerable. The potential influence of diverse and divergent political, cultural, and behavioural factors, regarding inclusion of priority setting (PS) in pandemic preparedness planning across the country is not well understood. This study aimed to examine how the Canadian federal, provincial and territorial COVID-19 pandemic preparedness planning documents integrated PS. MethodsA documentary analysis of the federal, eight provincial, three territorial COVID-19 preparedness and response plans. We assessed the degree to which the documented PS processes fulfilled established quality requirements of effective PS using the Kapiriri & Martin framework. ResultsWhile the federal plan included most of the parameters of effective PS, the provinces and territories reflected few. The lack of obligation for the provinces and territories to emulate the federal plan is one of the possible reasons for the varying inclusion of these parameters. The parameters included did not vary systematically with the jurisdiction's context. ConclusionProvinces could consider using the framework of the federal plan and the WHO guidelines to guide future pandemic planning. Regular evaluation of the instituted PS would provide a mechanism through which lessons can be harnessed and improvement strategies developed. Future studies should describe and evaluate what PS mechanisms were implemented.

Explaining fluctuations in the Thrift Savings Fund daily balance at U.S. treasury

AbstractThis article examines the G-Fund, which is one of the five funds in the federal government employee retirement Thrift Savings Plan. The G-Fund is held as internal debt by the U.S. Department of Treasury. Our examination shows that the fund balance is exclusively composed of 1-day notes that are redeemed/reissued every business day, generating $55 trillion in annual debt reissuance. We also show that the fund balance drops substantially as resources are transferred to the general fund when the government is constrained by a debt ceiling and returns to pre-constraint levels when the ceiling is expanded/suspended.

Academic Health Centers and Humanitarian Crises: One Health System's Response to Unaccompanied Children at the Border.

University of California Health (UCH) provided a system-wide, rapid response to the humanitarian crisis of unaccompanied children crossing the southern U.S. border in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. In collaboration with multiple federal, state, and local agencies, UCH mobilized a multidisciplinary team to deliver acute general and specialty pediatric care to unaccompanied children at 2 Californian emergency intake sites (EISs). The response, which did not disrupt normal UCH operations, mobilized the capacities of the system and resulted in a safe and developmentally appropriate environment that supported the physical and mental health of migrant children during this traumatic period. The capacities of UCH's 6 academic health centers ensured access to trauma-informed medical care and culturally sensitive psychological and social support. Child life professionals provided access to exercise, play, and entertainment. Overall, 260 physicians, 42 residents and fellows, 4 nurse practitioners participated as treating clinicians and were supported by hundreds of staff across the 2 EISs. Over 5 months and across both EISs, a total of 4,911 children aged 3 to 17 years were cared for. A total of 782 children had COVID-19, most infected before arrival. Most children (3,931) were reunified with family or sponsors. Continuity of care after reunification or placement in a long-term shelter was enhanced by use of an electronic health record. The effort provided an educational experience for residents and fellows with instruction in immigrant health and trauma-informed care. The effort benefitted from UCH's recent experience of providing a system-wide response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Lessons learned are reported to encourage the alignment and integration of academic health centers' capacities with federal, state, and local plans to better prepare for and respond to the accelerating need to care for those in the wake of disasters and humanitarian crises.

Factors Influencing the Chance of Inheriting the Family Farming Career among Heirs in the Upper Northern Region of Thailand in the Crisis of Farming Labor Decline

The aging society of farmers and lack of motivation to pursue a farming career among farmers’ young heirs could induce a severe labor shortage crisis in the farming sector in Thailand in the near future, especially in the upper northern region, which has been officially declared as the base of the organic agricultural production of the country. The main problem is the decision of farmers’ heirs to inherit or not inherit the farming career of their families. The relevant factors and their effects on the decision must be investigated and analyzed. A set of descriptive statistical tools were used to analyze the significance of each factor. A prediction model based on logistic regression was applied to analyze how sensitive of each factor is to the decision to inherit the family farming career. The discovered results could help the federal organization to plan and establish an appropriate strategy in order to cope with the crisis. Here, there are 519 surveyed samples referring to farmers’ heirs from five provinces in the upper northern region, which are Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Nan, Lamphun, and Mae Hong Son. The data were collected using a questionnaire. The following 10 relevant factors were found to have direct impacts on the decision to inherit the farming career: gender, increased age, marital status, increased yearly income, the chance to obtain advice from the Federal Department of Agricultural Extension, attitudes towards the farming career, an increase in the land size for farming per family, increase in the land size for farming in the rural area, the variety of agricultural products produced by the family, and an increased set of farming equipment and tools possessed by the family. However, an increase in the number of new family members could lead to unwillingness to inherit the farming career. All these factors in both the willing and unwilling groups had a statistical significance at the level of 0.05. Since the sample size of the willing group was considerably larger than the sample size of the unwilling group, a technique of minority oversampling was adopted to alleviate the problem of the imbalanced datasets. The classification accuracy obtained was 77.56. In addition to the federal planning and strategies applied to ease the crisis, the factors discovered in this study can be used as a stimulus for persuading and stimulating the young generation to inherit the farming career or become a skillful as well as knowledgeable professional farmer capable of producing high-quality agricultural products for the upper northern region of Thailand.