Family-wise Error Research Articles

A multi-arm multi-stage platform design that allows preplanned addition of arms while still controlling the family-wise error.

There is growing interest in platform trials that allow for adding of new treatment arms as the trial progresses as well as being able to stop treatments part way through the trial for either lack of benefit/futility or for superiority. In some situations, platform trials need to guarantee that error rates are controlled. This paper presents a multi-stage design, that allows additional arms to be added in a platform trial in a preplanned fashion, while still controlling the family-wise error rate, under the assumption of known number and timing of treatments to be added, and no time trends. A method is given to compute the sample size required to achieve a desired level of power and we show how the distribution of the sample size and the expected sample size can be found. We focus on power under the least favorable configuration which is the power of finding the treatment with a clinically relevant effect out of a set of treatments while the rest have an uninteresting treatment effect. A motivating trial is presented which focuses on two settings, with the first being a set number of stages per active treatment arm and the second being a set total number of stages, with treatments that are added later getting fewer stages. Compared to Bonferroni, the savings in the total maximum sample size are modest in a trial with three arms, <1% of the total sample size. However, the savings are more substantial in trials with more arms.

Familywise error for multiple time-to-event endpoints in a group sequential design.

We investigate the familywise error rate (FWER) for time-to-event endpoints evaluated using a group sequential design with a hierarchical testing procedure for secondary endpoints. We show that, in this setup, the correlation between the log-rank test statistics at interim and at end of study is not congruent with the canonical correlation derived for normal-distributed endpoints. We show, both theoretically and by simulation, that the correlation also depends on the level of censoring, the hazard rates of the endpoints, and the hazard ratio. To optimize operating characteristics in this complex scenario, we propose a simulation-based method to assess the FWER which, better than the alpha-spending approach, can inform the choice of critical values for testing secondary endpoints.

Adding experimental treatment arms to multi-arm multi-stage platform trials in progress.

Multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) platform trials efficiently compare several treatments with a common control arm. Crucially MAMS designs allow for adjustment for multiplicity if required. If for example, the active treatment arms in a clinical trial relate to different dose levels or different routes of administration of a drug, the strict control of the family-wise error rate (FWER) is paramount. Suppose a further treatment becomes available, it is desirable to add this to the trial already in progress; to access both the practical and statistical benefits of the MAMS design. In any setting where control of the error rate is required, we must add corresponding hypotheses without compromising the validity of the testing procedure.To strongly control the FWER, MAMS designs use pre-planned decision rules that determine the recruitment of the next stage of the trial based on the available data. The addition of a treatment arm presents an unplanned change to the design that we must account for in the testing procedure. We demonstrate the use of the conditional error approach to add hypotheses to any testing procedure that strongly controls the FWER. We use this framework to add treatments to a MAMS trial in progress. Simulations illustrate the possible characteristics of such procedures.

Do profitable wagering strategies indicate an inefficient market? An investigation into simple wagering strategies in Major League Baseball moneyline markets

ABSTRACT In a vacuum, the existence of a profitable wagering strategy would seem to point to an inefficiency in that particular wagering market. Here, we examine 1,547 simple wagering strategies from 1999 to 2016. Our results show that 38 (2.46%) of these simple wagering strategies produce profits at the 5% level of statistical significance; 7 strategies (0.45%) were profitable at the 1% level of statistical significance. Additional methods of controlling for family-wise error further confirm the extremely efficient nature of the Major League Baseball moneyline wagering market over the timeframe analysed.

Transdiagnostic markers across the psychosis continuum: a systematic review and meta-analysis of resting state fMRI studies.

https://osf.io/, identifier (ycqpz).

Brain structural and functional abnormalities associated with acute post-traumatic headache: iron deposition and functional connectivity

BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to interrogate brain iron accumulation in participants with acute post-traumatic headache (PTH) due to mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), and to determine if functional connectivity is affected in areas with iron accumulation. We aimed to examine the correlations between iron accumulation and headache frequency, post-concussion symptom severity, number of mTBIs, and time since most recent TBI.MethodsSixty participants with acute PTH and 60 age-matched healthy controls (HC) underwent 3T magnetic resonance imaging including quantitative T2* maps and resting-state functional connectivity imaging. Between group T2* differences were determined using T-tests (p < 0.005, cluster size threshold of 90 voxels). For regions with T2* differences, two analyses were conducted. First, the correlations with clinical variables including headache frequency, number of lifetime mTBIs, time since most recent mTBI, and Sport Concussion Assessment Tool (SCAT) symptom severity scale scores were investigated using linear regression. Second, the functional connectivity of these regions with the rest of the brain was examined (significance of p < 0.05 with family wise error correction for multiple comparisons).ResultsThe acute PTH group consisted of 60 participants (22 male, 38 female) with average age of 42 ± 14 years. The HC group consisted of 60 age-matched controls (17 male, 43 female, average age of 42 ± 13). PTH participants had lower T2* values compared to HC in the left posterior cingulate and the bilateral cuneus. Stronger functional connectivity was observed between bilateral cuneus and right cerebellar areas in PTH compared to HC. Within the PTH group, linear regression showed negative associations of T2* in the left posterior cingulate with SCAT symptom severity score (p = 0.05) and T2* in the left cuneus with headache frequency (p = 0.04).ConclusionsIron accumulation in posterior cingulate and cuneus was observed in those with acute PTH relative to HC; stronger functional connectivity was detected between the bilateral cuneus and the right cerebellum. The correlations of decreased T2* (suggesting higher iron content) with headache frequency and post mTBI symptom severity suggest that the iron accumulation that results from mTBI might reflect the severity of underlying mTBI pathophysiology and associate with post-mTBI symptom severity including PTH.

Microstructural changes of the white matter in systemic lupus erythematosus patients without neuropsychiatric symptoms: a multi-shell diffusion imaging study

BackgroundDiffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI) and neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging (NODDI) provide more comprehensive and informative perspective on microstructural alterations of cerebral white matter (WM) than single-shell diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), especially in the detection of crossing fiber. However, studies on systemic lupus erythematosus patients without neuropsychiatric symptoms (non-NPSLE patients) using multi-shell diffusion imaging remain scarce.MethodsTotally 49 non-NPSLE patients and 41 age-, sex-, and education-matched healthy controls underwent multi-shell diffusion magnetic resonance imaging. Totally 10 diffusion metrics based on DKI (fractional anisotropy, mean diffusivity, axial diffusivity, radial diffusivity, mean kurtosis, axial kurtosis and radial kurtosis) and NODDI (neurite density index, orientation dispersion index and volume fraction of the isotropic diffusion compartment) were evaluated. Tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) and atlas-based region-of-interest (ROI) analyses were performed to determine group differences in brain WM microstructure. The associations of multi-shell diffusion metrics with clinical indicators were determined for further investigation.ResultsTBSS analysis revealed reduced FA, AD and RK and increased ODI in the WM of non-NPSLE patients (P < 0.05, family-wise error corrected), and ODI showed the best discriminative ability. Atlas-based ROI analysis found increased ODI values in anterior thalamic radiation (ATR), inferior frontal-occipital fasciculus (IFOF), forceps major (F_major), forceps minor (F_minor) and uncinate fasciculus (UF) in non-NPSLE patients, and the right ATR showed the best discriminative ability. ODI in the F_major was positively correlated to C3.ConclusionThis study suggested that DKI and NODDI metrics can complementarily detect WM abnormalities in non-NPSLE patients and revealed ODI as a more sensitive and specific biomarker than DKI, guiding further understanding of the pathophysiological mechanism of normal-appearing WM injury in SLE.

Acute neural effects of the mood stabiliser lamotrigine on emotional processing in healthy volunteers: a randomised control trial.

Lamotrigine is an effective mood stabiliser, largely used for the management and prevention of depression in bipolar disorder. The neuropsychological mechanisms by which lamotrigine acts to relieve symptoms as well as its neural effects on emotional processing remain unclear. The primary objective of this current study was to investigate the impact of an acute dose of lamotrigine on the neural response to a well-characterised fMRI task probing implicit emotional processing relevant to negative bias. 31 healthy participants were administered either a single dose of lamotrigine (300 mg, n = 14) or placebo (n = 17) in a randomized, double-blind design. Inside the 3 T MRI scanner, participants completed a covert emotional faces gender discrimination task. Brain activations showing significant group differences were identified using voxel-wise general linear model (GLM) nonparametric permutation testing, with threshold free cluster enhancement (TFCE) and a family wise error (FWE)-corrected cluster significance threshold of p < 0.05. Participants receiving lamotrigine were more accurate at identifying the gender of fearful (but not happy or angry) faces. A network of regions associated with emotional processing, including amygdala, insula, and the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), was significantly less activated in the lamotrigine group compared to the placebo group across emotional facial expressions. A single dose of lamotrigine reduced activation in limbic areas in response to faces with both positive and negative expressions, suggesting a valence-independent effect. However, at a behavioural level lamotrigine appeared to reduce the distracting effect of fear on face discrimination. Such effects may be relevant to the mood stabilisation effects of lamotrigine.

A.2 Understanding Grit in healthy older adults at-risk for Alzheimer’s disease

Background: Adherence to healthy lifestyle behaviours or to prescribed medication requires perseverance with stamina, and this is captured by Grit, a non-cognitive trait defined as perseverance and passion for long-term goals. Despite predicting cognitive decline and physical, emotional, and social functioning, Grit remains poorly understood and its neural substrates are unknown in cognitive aging. Methods: Ninety-five cognitively unimpaired older adults with a family history of Alzheimer’s disease were recruited through the PREVENT-AD longitudinal cohort. Participants completed tests that assess grit and conscientiousness and underwent resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Multivariate pattern analyses (MVPA), a rigorous data-driven whole-brain approach, were used to examine if resting-state functional connectivity of connectome-wide voxels were associated with grit scores, controlling for age, sex, APOE ε4 carriership, mean displacement, and conscientiousness. Results: Our analyses identified two large (≥54 voxels) and statistically significant (p&lt;0.01 corrected for family-wise error) clusters in the right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex and the left orbitofrontal cortex underlying grit. Conclusions: Being the first to identify functional neural correlates supporting grit in the aging population while accounting for the variance of conscientiousness, our study provides unique insights into the construct which has important applications in adherence to clinical and empirical neurological interventions as well as in successful aging.

A comparison of outcomes including bile duct injury of subtotal cholecystectomy versus open total cholecystectomy as bailout procedures for severe cholecystitis: A multicenter real-world study

BackgroundDense inflammation obscuring the hepatocystic anatomy can hinder the ability to perform a safe standard laparoscopic cholecystectomy in severe cholecystitis, requiring use of a bailout procedure. We compared clinical outcomes of laparoscopic and open subtotal cholecystectomy against the traditional standard of open total cholecystectomy to identify the optimal bailout strategy for the difficult gallbladder. MethodsA multicenter, multinational retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent bailout procedures for severe cholecystitis. Procedures were compared using one-way analysis of variance/Kruskal-Wallis tests and χ2 tests with multiple pairwise comparisons, maintaining a family-wise error rate at 0.05. Multiple multivariate linear/logistical regression models were created. ResultsIn 11 centers, 727 bailout procedures were conducted: 317 laparoscopic subtotal cholecystectomies, 172 open subtotal cholecystectomies, and 238 open cholecystectomies. Baseline characteristics were similar among subgroups. Bile leak was common in laparoscopic and open fenestrating subtotal cholecystectomies, with increased intraoperative drain placements and postoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(P < .05). In contrast, intraoperative bleeding (odds ratio = 3.71 [1.9, 7.22]), surgical site infection (odds ratio = 2.41 [1.09, 5.3]), intensive care unit admission (odds ratio = 2.65 [1.51, 4.63]), and length of stay (Δ = 2 days, P < .001) were higher in open procedures. Reoperation rates were higher for open reconstituting subtotal cholecystectomies (odds ratio = 3.43 [1.03, 11.44]) than other subtypes. The overall rate of bile duct injury was 1.1% and was not statistically different between groups. Laparoscopic subtotal cholecystectomy had a bile duct injury rate of 0.63%. ConclusionLaparoscopic subtotal cholecystectomy is a feasible surgical bailout procedure in cases of severe cholecystitis where standard laparoscopic cholecystectomy may carry undue risk of bile duct injury. Open cholecystectomy remains a reasonable option.

Simultaneous MEG and EEG source imaging of electrophysiological activity in response to acute transcranial photobiomodulation.

Transcranial photobiomodulation (tPBM) is a non-invasive neuromodulation technique that improves human cognition. The effects of tPBM of the right forehead on neurophysiological activity have been previously investigated using EEG in sensor space. However, the spatial resolution of these studies is limited. Magnetoencephalography (MEG) is known to facilitate a higher spatial resolution of brain source images. This study aimed to image post-tPBM effects in brain space based on both MEG and EEG measurements across the entire human brain. MEG and EEG scans were concurrently acquired for 6 min before and after 8-min of tPBM delivered using a 1,064-nm laser on the right forehead of 25 healthy participants. Group-level changes in both the MEG and EEG power spectral density with respect to the baseline (pre-tPBM) were quantified and averaged within each frequency band in the sensor space. Constrained modeling was used to generate MEG and EEG source images of post-tPBM, followed by cluster-based permutation analysis for family wise error correction (p < 0.05). The 8-min tPBM enabled significant increases in alpha (8-12 Hz) and beta (13-30 Hz) powers across multiple cortical regions, as confirmed by MEG and EEG source images. Moreover, tPBM-enhanced oscillations in the beta band were located not only near the stimulation site but also in remote cerebral regions, including the frontal, parietal, and occipital regions, particularly on the ipsilateral side. MEG and EEG results shown in this study demonstrated that tPBM modulates neurophysiological activity locally and in distant cortical areas. The EEG topographies reported in this study were consistent with previous observations. This study is the first to present MEG and EEG evidence of the electrophysiological effects of tPBM in the brain space, supporting the potential utility of tPBM in treating neurological diseases through the modulation of brain oscillations.

Examining the Influence of Cognitive Load and Environmental Conditions on Autonomic Nervous System Response in Military Aircrew: A Hypoxia-Normoxia Study.

Executing flight operations demand that military personnel continuously perform tasks that utilize low- and high-order cognitive functions. The autonomic nervous system (ANS) is crucial for regulating the supply of oxygen (O2) to the brain, but it is unclear how sustained cognitive loads of different complexities may affect this regulation. Therefore, in the current study, ANS responses to low and high cognitive loads in hypoxic and normoxic conditions were evaluated. The present analysis used data from a previously conducted, two-factor experimental design. Healthy subjects (n = 24) aged 19 to 45 years and located near Fort Novosel, AL, participated in the parent study. Over two, 2-h trials, subjects were exposed to hypoxic (14.0% O2) and normoxic (21.0% O2) air while simultaneously performing one, 15-min and one, 10-min simulation incorporating low- and high-cognitive aviation-related tasks, respectively. The tests were alternated across five, 27-min epochs; however, only epochs 2 through 4 were used in the analyses. Heart rate (HR), HR variability (HRV), and arterial O2 saturation were continuously measured using the Warfighter MonitorTM (Tiger Tech Solutions, Inc., Miami, FL, USA), a previously validated armband device equipped with electrocardiographic and pulse oximetry capabilities. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) regression models were performed to compare ANS responses between the low- and high-cognitive-load assessments under hypoxic and normoxic conditions. Pairwise comparisons corrected for familywise error were performed using Tukey's test within and between high and low cognitive loads under each environmental condition. Across epochs 2 through 4, in both the hypoxic condition and the normoxic condition, the high-cognitive-load assessment (MATB-II) elicited heightened ANS activity, reflected by increased HR (+2.4 ± 6.9 bpm) and decreased HRV (-rMSSD: -0.4 ± 2.7 ms and SDNN: -13.6 ± 14.6 ms). Conversely, low cognitive load (ADVT) induced an improvement in ANS activity, with reduced HR (-2.6 ± 6.3 bpm) and increased HRV (rMSSD: +1.8 ± 6.0 ms and SDNN: vs. +0.7 ± 6.3 ms). Similar observations were found for the normoxic condition, albeit to a lower degree. These within-group ANS responses were significantly different between high and low cognitive loads (HR: +5.0 bpm, 95% CI: 2.1, 7.9, p < 0.0001; rMSSD: -2.2 ms, 95% CI: -4.2, -0.2, p = 0.03; SDNN: -14.3 ms, 95% CI: -18.4, -10.1, p < 0.0001) under the hypoxic condition. For normoxia, significant differences in ANS response were only observed for HR (+4.3 bpm, 95% CI: 1.2, 7.4, p = 0.002). Lastly, only high cognitive loads elicited significant differences between hypoxic and normoxic conditions but just for SDNN (-13.3 ms, 95% CI, -17.5, -8.9, p < 0.0001). Our study observations suggest that compared to low cognitive loads, performing high-cognitive-load tasks significantly alters ANS activity, especially under hypoxic conditions. Accounting for this response is critical, as military personnel during flight operations sustain exposure to high cognitive loads of unpredictable duration and frequency. Additionally, this is likely compounded by the increased ANS activity consequent to pre-flight activities and anticipation of combat-related outcomes.

Apathy and Depression Among People Aging With Traumatic Brain Injury: Relationships to Cognitive Performance and Psychosocial Functioning.

Apathy and depression are both common after moderate to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and may be especially important to distinguish in older adults with TBI. The authors examined apathy and depression in relation to cognitive performance domains and their potentially unique contribution to psychosocial functioning in this patient population. A total of 106 participants (mean±SD age=64±8 years) with chronic moderate to severe TBI (≥1 year) completed questionnaires assessing severity of apathy (Frontal Systems Behavior Scale-apathy subscale) and depression (Geriatric Depression Scale-15) symptoms, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and societal participation. Participants also completed neuropsychological tests of episodic memory, processing speed, and executive functioning. Apathy symptom severity was significantly associated with all cognitive performances in correlations adjusted for the familywise error rate; a relationship with executive functioning remained after controlling for demographic and injury variables. Depression symptom severity was not significantly associated with cognition after statistical correction. Both symptomatologies uniquely contributed to HRQoL. Only depression symptoms contributed to societal participation. On the basis of clinical cutoffs, half the sample had neither depression nor apathy, approximately 25% met criteria for only apathy, and 25% had both apathy and depression. The combined presence of clinical depression and apathy was associated with worse HRQoL and societal participation. This is the first study to examine apathy and depression in relation to cognition and psychosocial functioning in an older sample with a history of TBI. Findings suggest that the two syndromes can be dissociated in clinically meaningful ways, which may help to refine psychiatric and behavioral interventions in this vulnerable population.

Aberrant cortical morphology patterns are associated with cognitive impairment in patients with chronic heart failure.

A mounting body of evidences suggests that patients with chronic heart failure (HF) frequently experience cognitive impairments, but the neuroanatomical mechanism underlying these impairments remains elusive. In this retrospective study, 49 chronic HF patients and 49 healthy controls (HCs) underwent brain structural MRI scans and cognitive assessments. Cortical morphology index (cortical thickness, complexity, sulcal depth and gyrification) were evaluated. Correlations between cortical morphology and cognitive scores and clinical variables were explored. Logistic regression analysis was employed to identify risk factors for predicting 3-year major adverse cardiovascular events. Compared with HCs, patients with chronic HF exhibited decreased cognitive scores (p < .001) and decreased cortical thickness, sulcal depth and gyrification in brain regions involved cognition, sensorimotor, autonomic nervous system (family-wise error correction, all p values <.05). Notably, HF duration and New York Heart Association (NYHA) demonstrated negative correlations with abnormal cortex morphology, particularly HF duration and thickness in left precentral gyrus (r = -.387, p = .006). Cortical morphology characteristics exhibited positive associations with global cognition, particularly cortical thickness in left pars opercularis (r= .476, p< .001). NYHA class is an independent risk factor for adverse outcome (p = .001). The observed correlation between abnormal cortical morphology and global cognition suggested that cortical morphology may serve as a promising imaging biomarker and provide insights into neuroanatomical underpinnings of cognitive impairment in patients with chronic HF.

Functional alterations of the brain default mode network and somatosensory system in trigeminal neuralgia

Mapping the localization of the functional brain regions in trigeminal neuralgia (TN) patients is still lacking. The study aimed to explore the functional brain alterations and influencing factors in TN patients using functional brain imaging techniques. All participants underwent functional brain imaging to collect resting-state brain activity. The significant differences in regional homogeneity (ReHo) and amplitude of low frequency (ALFF) between the TN and control groups were calculated. After familywise error (FWE) correction, the differential brain regions in ReHo values between the two groups were mainly located in bilateral middle frontal gyrus, bilateral inferior cerebellum, right superior orbital frontal gyrus, right postcentral gyrus, left inferior temporal gyrus, left middle temporal gyrus, and left gyrus rectus. The differential brain regions in ALFF values between the two groups were mainly located in the left triangular inferior frontal gyrus, left supplementary motor area, right supramarginal gyrus, and right middle frontal gyrus. With the functional impairment of the central pain area, the active areas controlling memory and emotion also change during the progression of TN. There may be different central mechanisms in TN patients of different sexes, affected sides, and degrees of nerve damage. The exact central mechanisms remain to be elucidated.

Comparison of two methods for seamless phase II/III Clinical trials using early outcome for treatment selection

Seamless phase II/III trials have been advocated following the US Food and Drug Administration’s Critical Path Initiative lunched in 2004. Statistical methods have been proposed to address the treatment selection (phase II portion) and final test (phase III portion) issues. We compare two popular methods of Shun, Lan, and Soo (2008) and Friede et al. (2011) in terms of the familywise error rate and power as a function of interim analysis information time and the correlation between the short-term surrogate endpoint, on which the treatment selection is based, and the long-term primary endpoint, on which the final test is focused. The numerical study shows that there is generally a slight gain of power by the method of Shun et al. owing to being less conservative, compared to Friede et al. regardless when the interim selection is performed, as long as the two endpoints are not perfectly correlated. For the case of perfectly correlated endpoints, the gain is shown for the scenario when the patients in the unselected treatment arm is no longer followed up, where the gain for Shun et al. is around 1%∼2%.

Regularizing stock return covariance matrices via multiple testing of correlations

This paper develops a large-scale inference approach for the regularization of stock return covariance matrices. The framework allows for the presence of heavy tails and multivariate GARCH-type effects of unknown form among the stock returns. The approach involves simultaneous testing of all pairwise correlations, followed by setting non-statistically significant elements to zero. This adaptive thresholding is achieved through sign-based Monte Carlo resampling within multiple testing procedures, controlling either the traditional familywise error rate, a generalized familywise error rate, or the false discovery proportion. Subsequent shrinkage ensures that the final covariance matrix estimate is positive definite and well-conditioned while preserving the achieved sparsity. Compared to alternative estimators, this new regularization method demonstrates strong performance in simulation experiments and real portfolio optimization.

High CO2 exposure due to facemask wear is unlikely to impair cognition even in a warm environment after a long-term adaptation

There is a lack of consensus regarding the impact of elevated indoor CO2 exposure on cognition. COVID-19 provided an opportunity to study responses to long-term elevated CO2 exposure from facemask wear. Such an opportunity allows us to avoid exposing participants to elevated CO2 levels not typically experienced in real-life settings, potentially increasing the ecological validity of our experimental design. Further, the worsening warmness during summer necessitates studies and understanding of peoples’ cognition with combined stressors of both heat and CO2 accumulation. In this work, we recruited 60 college students to understand whether facemask wear elevates local CO2 levels and, if so, the extent to which it impacts cognition in warm conditions. Subjects remained in a controlled summer environmental room (temperature 31.5 °C, relative humidity 30 %) for 90 min with or without facemasks. Participants completed six cognitive tests in a random order and answered surveys using computer-based software. Ten experimental subjects had a second 30 min visit to measure CO2 concentration at the ala of the nose with and without surgical masks. The results show that wearing a surgical mask sharply increased CO2 concentration near the nose by 15,000 ppm. Our analysis showed that the experimental group with facemask wear did not exhibit significantly different cognition performance except for short-term memory which was higher instead of lower than the control group. Participants with facemask wear showed significantly lower risk-taking, possibly attributed to thermal discomfort. Nevertheless, no significance in cognition or decision-making was observed after controlling the familywise error rate using the Bonferroni correction. We hypothesize that the insignificant difference might be caused by adaptation to long-term wear and high CO2 exposure in daily life during COVID-19, which cannot be revealed in the studies prior to the pandemic.

Post-selection Inference in Multiverse Analysis (PIMA): An Inferential Framework Based on the Sign Flipping Score Test.

When analyzing data, researchers make some choices that are either arbitrary, based on subjective beliefs about the data-generating process, or for which equally justifiable alternative choices could have been made. This wide range of data-analytic choices can be abused and has been one of the underlying causes of the replication crisis in several fields. Recently, the introduction of multiverse analysis provides researchers with a method to evaluate the stability of the results across reasonable choices that could be made when analyzing data. Multiverse analysis is confined to a descriptive role, lacking a proper and comprehensive inferential procedure. Recently, specification curve analysis adds an inferential procedure to multiverse analysis, but this approach is limited to simple cases related to the linear model, and only allows researchers to infer whether at least one specification rejects the null hypothesis, but not which specifications should be selected. In this paper, we present a Post-selection Inference approach to Multiverse Analysis (PIMA) which is a flexible and general inferential approach that considers for all possible models, i.e., the multiverse of reasonable analyses. The approach allows for a wide range of data specifications (i.e., preprocessing) and any generalized linear model; it allows testing the null hypothesis that a given predictor is not associated with the outcome, by combining information from all reasonable models of multiverse analysis, and provides strong control of the family-wise error rate allowing researchers to claim that the null hypothesis can be rejected for any specification that shows a significant effect. The inferential proposal is based on a conditional resampling procedure. We formally prove that the Type I error rate is controlled, and compute the statistical power of the test through a simulation study. Finally, we apply the PIMA procedure to the analysis of a real dataset on the self-reported hesitancy for the COronaVIrus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine before and after the 2020 lockdown in Italy. We conclude with practical recommendations to be considered when implementing the proposed procedure.

Deep Brain Stimulation Modulates the Visual Pathway to Improve Freezing of Gait in Parkinson's Disease Patients

ObjectiveTo investigate the involvement of the visual cortex in improving freezing of gait (FoG) after subthalamic nucleus (STN) deep brain stimulation (DBS) in Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients using whole-brain seed-based functional connectivity. MethodsA total of 66 PD patients with FoG who underwent bilateral STN-DBS were included in our study. Patients were divided into a FoG responder group (FoG-R) and an FoG non-responder group (FoG-nonR) according to whether FoG improved one year after DBS. We compared the differences in clinical characteristics, brain structural imaging and seed-based functional connectivity between the two groups. The locations of active contacts were further analyzed. ResultsAll PD patients benefited from STN-DBS. No significant differences in the baseline characteristics or brain structures were found between the two groups. Seed-based functional connectivity analysis revealed that better connectivity in bilateral primary visual areas was associated with better clinical improvement in FoG (p < 0.05 familywise error [FWE] corrected). Further analysis revealed that this disparity was associated with the location of the active contacts within the rostral region of the sensorimotor subregion in the FoG-R group, in contrast to the findings in the FoG-nonR group. ConclusionThis study suggested that DBS in the rostral region of the STN sensorimotor subregion may alleviate FoG by strengthening functional connectivity in primary visual areas, which has significant implications for guiding surgical strategies for FoG in the future.