Do profitable wagering strategies indicate an inefficient market? An investigation into simple wagering strategies in Major League Baseball moneyline markets

Abstract

ABSTRACT In a vacuum, the existence of a profitable wagering strategy would seem to point to an inefficiency in that particular wagering market. Here, we examine 1,547 simple wagering strategies from 1999 to 2016. Our results show that 38 (2.46%) of these simple wagering strategies produce profits at the 5% level of statistical significance; 7 strategies (0.45%) were profitable at the 1% level of statistical significance. Additional methods of controlling for family-wise error further confirm the extremely efficient nature of the Major League Baseball moneyline wagering market over the timeframe analysed.