Export Growth Rate Research Articles

Assessing the export competitiveness of industries from Índia and Nepal - a cross-country analysis

This study compares and analyses the export competitiveness of Nepal and India adopting a multi-dimensional framework to show export competitiveness in the industry. This research also emphasises the relative market importance of Indian and Nepalese industries to each other's marketplaces. To determine the export competitiveness of 97 industries in India and Nepal from 2010 to 2021, a multidimensional framework was used that takes into account industry specialisation, industry growth, and market size. According to the results of our study, approximately 68 per cent of Indian industries are dynamic, indicating that they are expanding, and 42 per cent of them are global, making them more specialised and export-oriented. However, the majority of Nepal's industries (72 per cent) are static, and their export growth rate is less than the average growth rate for the world. In addition, the research analyses realistic export opportunities for Indian and Nepalese industries in each other's markets based on relative market importance. Policymakers, government representatives, business executives, and industry leaders in both countries may use this study to focus their limited resources on the industries that could benefit from them the most. Although export competitiveness research is extensive and contemporary, it lacks some prospective stud areas, such as cross-country analyses of various industries. Using a multi-dimensional framework, this study analyses and categorises 97 industries in India and Nepal as static or dynamic in global and domestic regions.

Zmiany wartości polskiego eksportu w ujęciu Trade in Value Added na tle krajów Grupy Wyszehradzkiej

Research on export based on domestic value added greatly complements the knowledge about the gross export of a given country. This measure provides not only information on trade flows, but also makes it possible to determine how much they are the result of work carried out in a given country and to what extent they depend on other links of value chains. The Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database, created by OECD and the WTO, provides such information. However, the data tend to be rarely analysed and presented in public discourse. The aim of the study presented in the paper is to show the changes in Polish export based on TiVA. In order to create a complete picture of the situation of Poland, the data covering TiVA for Poland were compared with analogous results obtained for the other Visegrad Group countries, whose economies share similar historical and geopolitical conditions: the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. The study uses data covering the period between 2004 (the year Poland joined the EU) and 2018 (the last year available in the database) and applies descriptive and statistical methods. The main hypothesis of the paper, stating that TiVA in Polish export grows relatively slower than the value of export measured in the traditional way, was verified. Additionally, a supporting hypothesis, assuming that TiVA in Polish export increases relatively slower than in the other researched countries, was also examined. The analysis shows that Poland has a significantly higher percentage of domestic value added in export and the dynamics of the changes in this factor is higher compared to the other Visegrad Group countries. Nevertheless, the growth rate of Polish gross export measured in the traditional way is higher than the export measured according to TiVA.

Dynamics of Export of Soy Meal from India

Significant changes had occurred in agricultural trade and export in the recent times in terms of cereals, pulses, oilseeds and their products. In the present study, an analysis had been carried out to estimate the growth rate of export of soybean and its main by-products particularly soy meal from India. The study was conducted using the data for the period of 2000-01 to 2020-21. The results revealed that there had been growth in export quantity and value of soybean from India however, negative growth rate was observed for export quantity of soy meal, but positive growth was observed for trade value. Republic of Korea emerged as the major importer for soy meal from India followed by Indonesia. China and USA emerged as major soybean meal exporter in the world. From India, export of soy meal was higher as compared to soybean, but lower growth rate of export value over the years clearly indicating that some other countries are competing the Indian export in world trade of soy meal due to increase awareness about non-GMO soybean in GMO soybean producing countries like Brazil, USA etc. For export of soy meal globally India is competing mainly with Argentina, Brazil, China and USA.

External shocks, global value chain transmission and China's export fluctuation

Using inter-country input-output model, this paper deconstructs the fluctuation of China's export growth rate from the perspective of global value chains. The results indicate that, China's export growth rate holds a significant "transitional fluctuations" feature under the mirror statistical method. Overall, from 2007 to 2011, the contribution of global value chains embedding on the fluctuation of China's export growth rate is biggest. From Sub-industry perspective, the contribution of technology-intensive manufacturing industry on the fluctuation of China's export growth rate is extremely high, the contribution rate of primary industry is relatively low.

Evolution of sugar exports in two centuries

The research showed the trajectory of Brazilian exports and sugar prices between 1821 and 2020 (two centuries). The hypothesis of the research was that exporters' price forecasting errors affected their export forecasting errors in the period evaluated. The data were obtained from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade (MIDIC). Sugar prices were translated to 2020 Brazilian currency values (R$) and then to US dollars using the 2020 (R$/USD) average conversion rate. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast sugar exports and prices over the entire period. Geometric growth rates of exports and prices were estimated for each quartile using trend evaluation models. Dummy variables were used to test whether there were differences between the elasticities measuring the forecast errors of exports as a function of the forecast errors of sugar prices in each quartile. The estimated models proved to be parsimonious and robust from a statistical point of view. The hypotheses that prices and export quantities expanded at different rates in the four quartiles were confirmed and the estimated elasticities were shown to be statistically different suggesting that export forecasting errors are likely to be related to sugar price forecasts.

MODERN STATISTICAL TRENDS OF EXPORTS BY SEA TRANSPORT TO THE CIS COUNTRIES

Nino Abesadze 
 Email:nino.abesadze@tsu.ge
 Associate Professor, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisis State University 
 Tbilisi, Georgia
 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6564-2771
 
 Otar Abesadze 
 Email:o.abesadze@gmail.com 
 Associate Professor, Georgian National University SEU 
 Tbilisi, Georgia
 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1644-4995
 
 Nino Paresashvili 
 Email:nino.paresashvili@tsu.ge 
 Associate Professor, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisis State University 
 Tbilisi, Georgia
 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7645-6491
 Abstract. In the modern conditions of globalization, the use of sea transport is becoming more and more popular, the share of which is quite high in export trade relations. 
 The main goal of the paper is to outline the trends in export under the conditions of sea transport and to determine the main parameters. Analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction were used in the research process, as well as specific statistical methods: observation, grouping, and analysis. For the purpose of analysis, data were processed, and indicators were calculated with computer software SPSS.
 Over the years, historically, the CIS has been and still is one of the major trade partners of Georgia. Its share in the total volume of exports is almost 50%, which was characterized by certain fluctuations in 2016-2022. If at the beginning of the period, only 35% of Georgia's total exports went to CIS countries, by 2019 its share increased to 53.8%. 
 Export relations with the CIS are mainly carried out by road (81%), while marine transport has a share of 9.8%. In 2016-2022, the average annual growth rate of exports to the CIS countries amounted to 123.9%, while the increase of exports by sea transport was 19% annually during the same period. In 2022, the share of exports by sea transport decreased, which makes up 4.7% of the total export in the CIS countries, which is 5.9 percentage points lower than the previous year's figure. Despite the fact that before and after the pandemic, Georgia has active trade relations with the countries of the region, bat a large part of re-exports, 94%, goes to the CIS countries, by road and then by sea.
 Georgia's total export to the CIS increased by 33.3% compared to the previous year, while local export decreased by 1%. The increase in exports to the CIS was largely related to the increase in re-exports because in this period re-exports increased by 76%. Despite the growth of domestic exports, re-exports have a significant share in the total exports of Georgia with the CIS, and its change affects the characteristics of foreign trade. Accordingly, the ratio between local export and re-export is variable, which amounted to 0.69 in 2022.

Research on Regional Financial Risk Identification and Contribution Analysis Based on ANN-RBF Neural Network

Regional financial risk is an issue that cannot be ignored around the world today. Studying financial risk and analyzing the deep-seated influential factors is conducive to reducing the generation of financial crises. This paper aims to study the influencing factors of regional financial risk and their contribution. Firstly, we identify influential factors of regional risk in the three northeastern provinces of China, then based on the artificial neural network-radial basis function (ANN-RBF) algorithm, we collect data from the region for the past 20 years for analysis and calculate the contribution of different risk influential factors to regional risk. The results show that: (1) CPI dominates in influencing the regional financial risk in the three northeastern provinces of China, followed by the growth rate of import and export and the local public finance surplus. (2) When the neuron is 29, the accuracy of the algorithm converges at this point and the model reaches optimum. The research in this paper is conducive to uncovering the influential factors of regional financial risk and reducing the generation of financial crises.

Assessing the competitiveness of solar photovoltaic products in comprehensive and progressive agreement for trans-pacific partnership countries.

Solar PV enables the conversion of solar energy into electricity and has become a clean energy technology for economic development. The advantages and disadvantages of solar photovoltaic vary among CPTPP member nations; nevertheless, since the CPTPP's implementation, fewer researchers have evaluated the member countries' solar photovoltaic goods' level of international competitiveness. In order to correct the flaw that the RCA index can only be studied from trade volume, this study adopts the IRCA index method and the revised CMS model, which integrates a number of variables to analyze the competitiveness of solar photovoltaic in each country. The study's findings indicate that: (1) the structural effect has a significant impact on export growth, particularly during the epidemic period, when Australia's contribution rate reached 106.58%; (2) the competitiveness effect has a lesser impact on export growth, and the epidemic led to a decline in competitiveness, with Japan's contribution rate reaching -262.85%; (3) the second-order effect has a declining trend in its contribution rate of export growth; (4) the export competitiveness of solar PV products differs between CPTPP countries, with power supply products having the most export competitiveness and solar cells having a steady comparative advantage in a weaker state. Apart than Japan, the remaining nations' comparative advantages for PV products are less than 1. Based on the above research findings, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.

Impacts of natural rubber export trajectories on the regional development of the Brazilian Amazon Region between 1827 and 2021

This study has the following objectives: a - to estimate the instabilities and behavior of the trajectories of prices and exports of Brazilian natural rubber in each of the periods; b - to estimate forecast models of prices and exports of natural rubber from 1827 to 2021; c - to estimate the impacts of price forecast errors on the forecast errors of Brazilian rubber exports in the three periods that classify the trajectory of natural rubber exports. The research used data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and the Brazilian Ministry of Industry and Trade. ARIMA models are estimated to predict the series of exports and prices of Brazilian natural rubber. From these models the forecast errors are generated and the influence of price forecast errors on the forecast errors of natural rubber exports is evaluated. Growth rates of exports and prices in the three periods studied were estimated, as well as the levels of instability of exports and prices. The results showed that both prices and exports of Brazilian natural rubber were quite unstable in the three periods evaluated and that the forecast errors of prices, as was one of the hypotheses of the research, interfered differently in the forecast errors of natural rubber exports and that exports had positive growth rates before and during the rubber cycle, while prices only had positive growth rates before and during the rubber cycle.

Export-Import Performance of Patchouli Oil in India: Growth and Instability Analysis

A Patchouli is a perennial, erect, branched aromatic herb with fragrant leaves grown in tropical and subtropical regions with warm and humid climate condition. It is cultivated mainly for its essential oil which extracted by steam distillation from the tender parts of the dried leaves and stems using a small amount of oil. Patchouli oil is deep orange to amber in colour and has an exotic, heavy, earthy aroma. The aroma of patchouli oil is usually described as a blend of earthy, woody, sweet, and musky notes.
 The objectives of study is an attempt to examine the annual and compound growth rates in the export and import of patchouli oil. The time series data of patchouli oil (export-import) collected through Department of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India for a period of 2001-22 and was analyzed by using growth model i.e., annual, compound growth rate instability and variation.
 The results revealed that compound growth rates (CGRs) of export and import both are statistically significant at 1% probability level. The CGRs of quantity export and value export has 14.26% and 15.47% respectively and in case of import CGRs of quantity import is 22.15% per annum and CGRs of imported value is high i.e.,38.28% per annum. It is found that the import of patchouli oil is much higher than the quantity exported. The significant import of Patchouli oil was observed from countries Indonesia, Singapore, Spain and Switzerland. Since, increase the demand of patchouli oil on both domestic and international markets, there is a significant opportunity to enhance production by expanding the patchouli crop area. It is also necessary to increase cultivation to reduce its import from other countries.

OPPORTUNITIES AND PROSPECTS FOR "GREEN" EXPORT OF CONSUMER GOODS

The article discusses the process of implementing the foreign trade policy of the Republic of Uzbekistan and foreign countries, in particular the European Union in modern conditions. This process is significantly affected by the slowdown in export growth rates in industry and the need to increase sales of high-tech goods to ensure sustainable growth of the national economy and its competitiveness in the world. The concept of “green” exports has been clarified and considered in the economic and customs aspects, also based on the SWOT-analysis, the weaknesses and strengths of “green” exports have been identified, the possibilities and prospects for its development in the national economy have been identified.

Evolution of the bilateral trade situation between Belt and Road countries and China

The Belt and Road Initiative's (BRI) potential impact on bilateral trade between Belt and Road countries (BRCs) and China is hotly contested. It is crucial to clarify what changes in the trade situation of China-BRCs bilateral trade before and after the BRI, including economic gains and environmental costs. This study applies the decomposition of production activities method to calculate the value-added (VA) and embodied CO2 emissions (ECE) transfer in China-BRCs bilateral trade from 2004 to 2017. The relevant results are fourfold. (1) The growth rates of China's VA exports and ECE exports to the BRCs are 1.44 times and 1.36 times higher than the growth rates of imports. (2) Electricity, iron and steel, and chemical rubber products are the main sectors of China's ECE exports. The oil industry is the main industry of BRCs' VA exports. (3) From 2004 to 2017, China's bilateral trade with most of the BRCs exchanged net ECE for net VA. Compared with traditional trade, China is gradually losing net benefits in VA for reducing the net costs of ECE under GVC activities. (4) The embodied CO2 intensity (ECI) of China-BRCs bilateral trade is decreasing, and the ECI of China's exports to BRCs is 2.11 times of imports. The primary driver of a decline in ECI is the CO2 emissions coefficient. These findings demonstrate that the BRI has had a positive impact on the China-BRCs bilateral trade and GVC activities leading to cleaner exports from China and BRCs. The research comprehensive analysis framework of economic and carbon emissions of cross-border trade established in this study provides a methodological basis for subsequent studies of other environmental indicators.

Theoretical and methodological aspects of analysing the foreign economic activity of enterprises

It is important for enterprises to determine exactly the current reserves for the development of export activities and, based on them, make adequate and objective management decisions regarding the further implementation of foreign economic activity. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to develop a comprehensive methodology for analysing foreign economic activity based on the determination of factors of the external and internal environment of the enterprise functioning, which affect the analysis of foreign economic activity, as well as the study of the process of implementing a comprehensive methodology for analysing foreign economic activity of the enterprise, based on the consistent implementation of stages: the stage of information and analytical support, the analytical and calculation stage, and the management stage – analytical processing of calculations and the formulation of reasonable conclusions. The study used the following methods: dialectical, analysis and synthesis, comparison, theoretical generalisation, and tabular method. The process of implementing a comprehensive methodology for analysing the foreign economic activity of the enterprise is considered, which provides an opportunity to obtain complete and objective information on the state of implementation of the foreign economic activity of the enterprise, the development and implementation of the foreign economic strategy. Recommended indicators of a comprehensive methodology for analysing the company's foreign economic activity are proposed, which are grouped into four main categories: indicators of export growth and growth rates, relative export indicators, efficiency indicators, and structure indicators. The generalised theoretical provisions obtained in the course of the study can be used in the activities of enterprises to analyse foreign economic activity

Opportunities for Pakistan’s Exports Growth through OBOR: Case of Central Asian Republics

The economic expansion of these large countries generates a boundless prospect for the Central Asia Republics to emerge as a hub for trade and commerce. Especially with trade road development programs such as Western Europe - Western China (WE-WC) International Transit Corridor Project, One Belt One Road Project (OBOR), this paper analyzes the exports of Pakistan to Central Asian Republics. It explores the flaws and opportunities for bilateral trade. The study uses the Constant Market Share (CMS) method for the analysis and estimates World Trade Effect, Markets Distribution Effect, Commodity Composition Effect, and Competitiveness Effect for Pakistan`s exports. The study found that the World Trade Effect and Markets Distribution Effect positively impacted the exports of Pakistan while the Commodity Composition Effect and Competitiveness Effect were causing problems for Pakistan’s export growth for Central Asian Republics Markets. The study concluded that exports of Pakistan are concentrated in a few commodities, such that 45-50% of Pakistan’s overall exports have a lower global export growth rate than other commodities. Also, the exports to Central Asian Republics (from Pakistan) have a growth rate, but still not substantial due to the low share of these commodities (in the total imports of Central Asian Republics). Lastly, an effective exchange rate policy for the Central Asian Republics can minimize this negative effect of the Competitiveness Effect.

Using the annual growth rate of exports palm from the Kingdom to the United States

Using the annual growth rate of exports palm from the Kingdom to the United States

Study on the Growth Potential of Beijing's Service Trade Export

In 2020, the comprehensive pilot project of expanding the opening-up of Beijing's service industry has entered a new stage of comprehensive upgrading. It is of great practical significance to study the growth potential source of Beijing's service trade export. Based on the data of 2012-2018 Beijing service export volume and the national service export volume of 2012-2018, this paper uses the Dynamic shift - share model to analyze the dynamic evolution of the export structure and competitiveness of Beijing service trade. The study shows that the overall growth rate of Beijing's service export lags behind the national standard level. All the traditional service export departments have competitive disadvantages and their competitiveness is declining year by year. Among the modern service export departments, financial and insurance service exports have gradually shown competitive advantages since Beijing became the comprehensive pilot to expand the opening up of the service industry in 2015, but other modern service export departments still face the problem of insufficient competitiveness. According to the study, Beijing should promote the digital transformation and upgrading of the traditional service export sector, steadily promote the development of financial service trade, and enhance its professional export capacity.

An Economic Analysis of Cotton Price Forecasting Using ANN in Andhra Pradesh, India

Cotton is essentially produced for its fibre, which is universally used as a textile raw material. Cotton is an important commodity in the world economy. A remunerative price environment for the growers is very important for increasing production. In this context the study on area, production, export, import, supply and demand and their compound growth rates as well as influence on prices of cotton were analyzed using descriptive statistical tools and Artificial Neural Network model (ANN). The results showed that, compound growth rate of exports was negative and significant with -2.41 per cent whereas, imports showed a positive and significant growth rate with10.44per cent from 2006-07 to 2021-22. The seasonal indices of cotton arrivals in Andhra Pradesh were highest in the months of January (177.54), December (153.67) and November (146.10) because of holding of previous seasons crop by traders and farmers in anticipation of higher prices. The return on rupee investment was 0.596 which is concerned to tenant farmers and return on variable costs was 0.848 which is mostly related to owner farmers. The lower seasonal indices for cotton prices were observed in the months of December (97.23) and November (101.50). The results of ANN model revealed that, neural network 9-29-1(9 input nodes, 29 hidden nodes, and 1 output) outperformed all other neural networks with lower MAPE (2.904), RMSE (140.59), MAE (90.02), and MASE (0.114) values. It was expected that demand will persist in 2022-23 harvesting season also with a price around Rs. 8269/ q.

Re-Export: Assessing the Impact of Re-Export Companies on Sectors and the Economy

Re-exports are an important part of international trade, as they account for about a quarter of total exports, and the growth rate of re-exports exceeds the growth rate of exports. Researchers find that re-exports have a positive impact on economic growth. Despite this, in existing studies, little attention has been paid to the impact of re-exports on sectors of the economy and the direct and indirect effects of re-exports on the national economy. Based on this, the purpose of the article is to consider the impact of re-export activities on sectors of the economy and on the economy as a whole using the example of one company. The study examines the distribution of the effects of re-export companies’ activities between the national economy and foreign economies and among sectors of the economy. In addition, the value of the primary and secondary effects of the influence of the re-export company on the national economy was determined and the local multiplier value was calculated. This study identifies the main factors that influence the distribution of re-export effects between the national economy and foreign economies and among sectors and industries, as well as factors that affect the magnitude of direct and indirect re-export effects on the national economy. The local multiplier value of re-exports was also determined at 1.73.

Модель контролю та оцінки ризику зовнішньоекономічної безпеки національних економік в умовах світових криз

The aim of the research work is to form a model of control and risk assessment of foreign economic security (FES) of national economies in the conditions of global crises. Its implementation will make it possible to take into account the likely future threats of FES in time and introduce effective mechanisms for their extinguishing or reduction in the present time to form an optimal trajectory for the development of foreign economic relations. The article substantiates that as the forecast values of FES indicators for the formation of a model of control and risk assessment of FES of national economies, it is advisable to include the following indicators: the level of openness of the economy; import export coverage ratio; growth rates of exports and imports; the share of imports in domestic consumption of the country; level of unemployment. As a method of forecasting the FES indicators, it is proposed to use a consensus forecast based on the principle of calculating the median values of indicators based on expert assessments by macroeconomic analysis and forecasting specialists. The practical implementation of the model of control and risk assessment of the FES of national economies was carried out on the example of the Ukrainian economy as one that is subject to the strong influence of crisis phenomena that cause a complex of threats to the FES. The projected level of FES risk for Ukraine according to a pessimistic and probable estimate is dangerously high, according to an optimistic one – high. This means the presence of a destabilizing negative impact of the crisis occurrences on the foreign economic activity of the national economy and a significant decrease in its functionality. To ensure the proper level of the FES of Ukraine in the context of crisis, it is necessary to: improve the regulatory framework by introducing a mandatory norm for calculating the FES index annually along with the forecast value of the risk level; introduction of mechanisms to increase Ukraine's role in the world trade system through the development of high-tech sectors of the economy, in particular through attracting international investment; search for new opportunities for foreign trade cooperation and development of the internal market.

ОЦІНКА ФАКТОРІВ ВПЛИВУ НА РОЗВИТОК ЗОВНІШНЬОЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ АГРАРНИХ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ

In determining the influence of factors on the development of foreign economic activity of agricultural enterprises, the index method, which is one of the main methods of statistical analysis, is used. It has been established that the largest share in the commodity structure is occupied by: cereals, oilseeds, vegetable oil, meat and meat products, and milk and dairy products. Therefore, it is advisable to use these products for factor analysis of foreign economic activity of agricultural enterprises. The article examines changes in the value, physical volume, and commodity structure of agricultural exports and calculates the absolute change in exports, the growth rate and the growth rate of exports, and its commodity structure. Among the calculated indicators of the factor analysis of export efficiency, the most significant was the contract price index, and the least significant was the physical volume index, i.e., the efficiency of foreign economic activity of agricultural enterprises is most affected by the cost of exported products, not their volume. Most of the interviewed experts from among the managers of agricultural enterprises in Lviv region engaged in foreign economic activity identified the factors that determine the political situation in the country and its stability, the level of competitiveness of domestic goods and the complexity of the foreign economic activity procedure as the most important factors affecting the success of the implementation of foreign economic activity of agricultural enterprises in general. It is proved that the results obtained in assessing the factors influencing the foreign economic activity of agrarian enterprises in Lviv region, in terms of their significance, can be trusted and used in further research. The standard deviation for the mean values presented in the analysis is 15.4% of the mean value. Thus, expert estimates vary on average by 14-15%, which proves a high level of consistency in the opinions of the surveyed experts. This, in turn, confirms the statistical significance of the study and the fact that the weighting factors obtained as a result of further calculations can be used in practice.