Impacts of natural rubber export trajectories on the regional development of the Brazilian Amazon Region between 1827 and 2021

Abstract

This study has the following objectives: a - to estimate the instabilities and behavior of the trajectories of prices and exports of Brazilian natural rubber in each of the periods; b - to estimate forecast models of prices and exports of natural rubber from 1827 to 2021; c - to estimate the impacts of price forecast errors on the forecast errors of Brazilian rubber exports in the three periods that classify the trajectory of natural rubber exports. The research used data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and the Brazilian Ministry of Industry and Trade. ARIMA models are estimated to predict the series of exports and prices of Brazilian natural rubber. From these models the forecast errors are generated and the influence of price forecast errors on the forecast errors of natural rubber exports is evaluated. Growth rates of exports and prices in the three periods studied were estimated, as well as the levels of instability of exports and prices. The results showed that both prices and exports of Brazilian natural rubber were quite unstable in the three periods evaluated and that the forecast errors of prices, as was one of the hypotheses of the research, interfered differently in the forecast errors of natural rubber exports and that exports had positive growth rates before and during the rubber cycle, while prices only had positive growth rates before and during the rubber cycle.