Export Demand Research Articles

Study of the causal relationship of certain economic variables to the growth of agricultural GDP in Iraq and Algeria for the period 1990-2022

The objective of the study was to analyses some of the economic variables of the exchange rate and money supply as well as the relationship between these economic variables and their impact on agricultural GDP in Algeria and Iraq for the period 1990-2022, after taking an overview of a range of concepts of economic variables as well as an analysis of the economic realities of agricultural GDP, The applied study showed that the impact of the variables (exchange rate, cash supply) on the agricultural GDP of Iraq and Algeria was analyses, The results showed that the exchange rate was negatively related to agricultural GDP because of the impact of other variables on the exchange rate itself, However the money supply and its inverse relationship emerged, defying economic logic, and this helped to explain the positive supply and impact on the GDP in general and the agricultural domestic product in particular. Over time, however, we observe that the exchange rate and the agricultural domestic product have a positive relationship, and this is because the government was able to obtain control over the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar, causing fluctuations in the exchange rate. As for the phone supply during the period allotted to specialists, this increased the money supply to the gross domestic agricultural product, which in turn increased the amount of money subscription to the GDP, In Algeria, the exchange rate and agricultural domestic product did not seem to have a significant relationship. However, there is a positive direct relationship the higher the foreign exchange rate, the higher the inflation rate, which in turn increases demand for Algerian agricultural exports because they are perceived as being inexpensive by non-residents. Regarding the money supply parameter ratio, there was a relationship. directly favorable, and this makes sense according to economic theory, In the long run, the exchange rate lesson was counterproductive to agricultural domestic product, but in terms of money supply, the relationship was counterproductive to agricultural domestic product. This suggests that the increase in the supply of money caused an increase in output in the short term and increased inflation in the long term.

Price Competition and Shifting Demand: The Relation between Palm and Coconut Oil Exports

Despite having a strong production capacity for fresh coconut, Indonesia has a certain deficiency in coconut processing, particularly coconut oil products, which is reflected in the declining market demand rates. The skyrocketing price of palm kernel oil (PKO) had been observed to impact the shifting demand for coconut oil. The cross-price competition with PKO was estimated to uncover the potential market demand for Indonesian coconut oils, especially during the periods of price discrepancies between 2020 and 2022. Thus, our study aimed to analyze the Indonesian coconut oil and palm kernel oil (PKO) market relationship as the markets reacted during the period of price volatility. This study is essential for Indonesian market evaluation, as both commodities are considered to be perfect substitute goods and are similar substances that contain high levels of lauric acid called “lauric oils”. We deployed an ARDL analysis utilizing secondary data from 1964 to 2022, focusing on the cross-price elasticity between coconut oil and PKO prices with the addition of prominent concerned variables. In the long-term estimations, the observational results indicated that the coconut oil and PKO prices had distinctive impacts on Indonesian coconut oil exports of −1.85% and 1.88%, respectively. In the short-term estimations, we found inverse values: the coconut oil price had positive impacts in the short-term period of 1.29% (D1.) and 2.35% (LD.), while the PKO had a negative impact on Indonesian coconut oil exports of −2.17%. This indicated that a PKO price reduction would increase the demand for Indonesian coconut oil exports due to the PKO price volatility and uncertainty perceived by the buyers in the short term. Our study also observed that rival producers, such as the Philippines, had a negative impact (−1.80%), representing the intense competition between Indonesia and the Philippines. Therefore, the Indonesian government has to elevate its coconut oil competitiveness to acquire the potential to expand the market and compete with other major coconut-producing countries.

Impact of the Sino-US Trade War on Factor Endowment in the China's GBA: A Theoretical Analysis from the Perspective of Factor Endowment Theory

Since the Sino-US trade war began in 2018, the two countries and other trading partners have been greatly affected. China's regional economic development has been affected by trade barriers, among which the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is more serious. On the premise that factor endowments determine trade has been proven, this study puts forward the potential impact mechanism of trade on regional factor endowments and takes GBA as an example for theoretical analysis based on factor endowment theory. The results show that due to the decrease in GBA export demand, the labor endowment will decline, the capital endowment will change oppositely to the labor due to the substitution effect and innovation pressure, and the land endowment will decline steadily. However, the movement of factors of production is limited by trade deflection and the restrictive policy. Future mathematical induction based on Heckscher-Ohlin model is needed to prove the results, and the corresponding empirical analysis will verify the relevance and implication.

Pakistan’s export potential assessment at intensive and extensive margins

PurposeThis study aims to estimate Pakistan’s export potential in new and existing export products, as well as their potential destination markets.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a nonparametric approach based on demand, supply and easiness factors for estimating export potential at disaggregated product and destination levels.FindingsA significant number of new export products (extensive margin) and existing products (intensive margin) are identified that have export potential. The estimated unrealized export potential at extensive margins is $2bn and at intensive margins is $5bn. The range of new products included value-added products, semifinished products and intermediate products. Surprisingly, there is high potential to diversify in China and export existing products more intensively in the EU. Moreover, the potential at extensive margins is regional diverse compared to intensive margins.Research limitations/implicationsThe methodology used in this paper only provides export potential for short-to-medium term period because the global demand conditions are varying. Also, the mineral and resource-based products cannot be included in the analysis because their exports are heavily dependent on the availability of natural resources.Practical implicationsThe findings have important policy implications in terms of providing guidelines for government policies related to industrial development, international trade and export promotion at the product and destination level. Overall, the study reveals that traditional sectors lack room for product diversification. As the existing export incentives favor major industries. To foster diversification, existing incentives must be redesigned to cover new products or sectors. Moreover, China has the greatest potential for product diversification, while Europe has the greatest potential to export current products more intensively. Further research is needed to simulate trade policy scenarios and estimate demand, supply and ease factors in export potential.Originality/valueThis study provides a unique perspective on export potential assessment at disaggregated product and destination levels, reinforcing the importance of redesigning trade policies and export incentives separately for export diversification.

How Does the Inflow of Tourism Affect the Agricultural Exports of India?

The empirical relationship between tourism inflow and international trade has been explored during recent years, supporting the argument that international tourism inflow promotes international trade between countries. However, the impact of international tourism inflow on agricultural exports has been neglected within standard agricultural trade models such as agricultural exports function and gravity model. The main aim of the article is to provide theoretical and empirical evidence that international tourism inflow matters for agricultural trade. The study uses an agricultural export demand function and augmented gravity model to examine the impact of tourism inflow on agricultural exports of India from the top 10 importing countries for the period 2000–2019. The agricultural trade model is estimated using random effect and fixed-effect model. To overcome the problem of panel heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, it uses the panel corrected standard error model. Further, potential endogeneity is treated by using a 2SLS model. The empirical evidence confirms the significant and positive impact of tourism inflow on agricultural exports of India. JEL Codes: F1, Q17, Z30

Developing a Sustainable Framework For Cross Border Inland Port

The significance of the cross-border inland port linking southern Thailand and northern Malaysia has experienced notable expansion over time, mostly driven by economic development and the substantial increase in export demand from the far east market. Currently, there are ongoing development activities for the establishment of two additional inland ports at the Malaysian border. The current capacity of the Padang Besar Cargo Terminal (PBCT), an inland port, is insufficient to satisfy the demand. The Thai government has recently unveiled a series of new projects and enhancements to logistical infrastructures in the southern part of Thailand, which are indicative of the potential for economic growth in the area. The necessity to perform this study arises from the current advancements and the absence of empirical investigation into the parameters associated with the sustainability of a cross-border inland port. This study aims to examine the various difficulties and aspects that can potentially affect the long-term sustainability of a transnational inland port. It will explore the challenges, critical success factors, and impacts associated with cross-border inland ports. Upon the culmination of the investigation, a conceptual framework for cross-border inland ports is put out, alongside a comprehensive evaluation of its potential effects. This study takes a mixed methodology approach, utilizing interviews, on-site observations, desk research, and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for data collecting and analysis. The findings of the study brought attention to the three fundamental elements of the framework, namely challenges, critical success factors, and impacts. Additionally, the responsibilities played by stakeholders were identified, along with a proposed strategy for establishing a sustainable cross-border inland port. This paper also provides an analysis of the impact assessment of a cross-border inland port, focusing on the three pillars of sustainability: people, planet, and profit. The research is expected to offer significant insights that can be utilized for strategic planning and decision-making by the relevant governing body and operators of inland ports.

Analysis of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) trade in Cameroon: A trader's perspective of preferred varieties and market traits

Common beans contribute towards enhancing food and nutritional security in developing countries. Producing the right varieties entails that the interest of all value chain actors, like traders (wholesalers, retailers, and aggregators), are considered in developing breeding priorities to meet local and export market demand. However, there is little or no information on traders' perspectives regarding the preferred common bean traits and variety; hence, this study sought to fill the gap. This study aimed to analyse common bean trade in Cameroon by focusing on the trader's perspective of preferred varieties and market traits. A market survey was conducted in August 2021. Four regions of Cameroon (Adamawa, Centre, West, and Littoral) were purposively selected based on accessibility, and high concentration of bean traders and are considered the major bean distribution and consumption hubs. A two-stage random sampling was then used to select 175 traders. Data was gathered using a semi-structured questionnaire and analysed descriptively using Excel and STATA 14 software. The results indicated that 80% of bean trade was with Gabon and Congo. The majority of the sampled traders were men, as more men are involved in the bean business. Also, the majority of the traders did not participate in contract farming arrangements. Two market classes of beans were popular: red and white beans. The red beans were popular in the market probably due to good market traits such as affordability, good taste, high yield and early maturity. White bean market class was popular in the export market. Conversely, the black bean market class was the least preferred in the market. The most preferred market traits for improved common beans were good taste and acceptability by buyers. White beans fetched the highest wholesale (1.72 USD) and retail (1.41 USD) prices per kg on the market. Conversely, black beans fetched the lowest wholesale (0.8 USD) and retail (0.75 USD) prices per kg on the market. We recommend that common bean breeders should involve traders as important stakeholders whose market intelligence can be useful in developing improved bean varieties, which are demand-driven. Also, governmental and non-governmental agencies should promote improved common bean varieties to enhance productivity that meets the high demand in local and export markets. Besides, they should promote traders' participation in contract farming arrangements to enhance the steady supply of improved common beans on the market.

Do export demand shocks affect the export quality of multi‐product firms? Evidence from China

AbstractWe extend the theoretical model of Antoniades (2015, Heterogeneous Firms, quality, and trade. Journal of International Economics, 95(2), 263–273) to analyze the impact of export demand shocks on the quality of multi‐product firms. Using Chinese micro‐data, we find that positive export demand shocks significantly promote the export quality of multi‐product firms, but the impact decreases as firm productivity increases. In addition to the scale effect and the competition effect, the intensified competition caused by the expansion of export demand will induce firms to skew their export sales towards the best performing products. Our findings elucidate the importance of the resource reallocation effect in the study of trade‐induced export performance.

Focusing on the Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade Relationship: Evidence from South Africa

Despite the extensive literature on the exchange rates volatility and international trade, there is no consensus in the literature. This study examines how South African exports demand is affected by exchange rate volatility. The sample period covers the period from the year 2000 first quarter to the beginning of 2021 first quarter. To estimate the volatility of the exchange rates, in this study, we have used the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) mode. While we use Autoregressive Distributed lags (ARDL) models to estimate the impact of exchange rates volatility on domestic exports. The findings suggested that there is a positive relationship between exchange rate volatility and exports. Hence, policies such as bilateral trade agreements are important to promote export growth.

Analysis of Indonesian Exports Demand in the ASEAN Region

The dynamics of a country's exports are determined not only by the supply side but also by the demand side. This research examines the influence of the demand side on Indonesia's exports. Its primary aim is to analyze the effects of per capita income, inflation, and the exchange rates of partner countries on the demand for Indonesia's exports in the ASEAN region. The data used is panel data covering the observation period from 2000 to 2021, encompassing nine ASEAN member countries trading partners with Indonesia. The analytical method employed is a panel regression model using a random effects approach, estimated through the EGLS method. The findings indicate that an increase in per capita income, inflation, and the appreciation of partner countries' currencies against the USD can stimulate the demand for Indonesia's exports in the ASEAN region, albeit to varying degrees.

Farmers' Views on Organic Grape Production in Adıyaman Province: Method Adoption and Problems

Healthy life in a sustainable environment is possible with accessible food production. The Covid-19 epidemic is a serious threat worldwide. This epidemic has revealed the importance of agricultural products. One of the most important areas of the epidemic affecting the whole world is exports; however, increased demand for agricultural products and exports in the epidemic process in Turkey. Turkey has a say in the trade of seedless dried grapes in the world. Seedless dried grape is on the healthy products list of the WHO. In 2019/2020, it had a share of 36% of world exports (with 246 thousand tons of export). This study was performed to evaluate their thoughts and farmers’ problems with the adoption of organic farming in Besni district of Adıyaman. The research conducted in-depth interviews with the farmers producing organic grapes. Also, a face-to-face survey was conducted with 50 farmers. According to the findings, the land width of the farmers is not much. It has an average growing area of 37.52 decares. An average yield of 1.808 kg da-1 is obtained from this area. Serious differences have been found between conventional and organic farming. Moreover, government supports, high product prices, income, health, sustainability, and environmental protection are reasons farmers switch to organic farming. However, farmers argue that organic farming is less costly than conventional farming. Access to chemicals and marketing are major problems. As a result, farmers should be informed about organic farming. Additionally, it is thought that these studies will increase the productivity and product quality of the farmers. It is predicted that it will prevent rural to urban migration in the region.

Estimation of an ARDL (m, p, q, r, s) Model to Determine the Long-run Effects of World Income, Relative Price, Real Exchange Rate and Employment on Export Demand for the Garment Sector of Bangladesh

In this paper, an ARDL (m p, q, r, s, s) log-linear export demand function is estimated to find the long-run impacts of world income, relative price, real exchange rate, and employment on exports of the garment sector of Bangladesh using modern econometric techniques based on time series data from 1979-2020. Long-run significant relationships among exports, relative price, real exchange rate, world income and employment are found. The VEC model's estimated results indicate short-run bidirectional causalities between different pairs of variables. The long-run causalities are found while exports and employment are the endogenous variables. The estimated results indicate that both long-run and short-run exports are influenced positively and significantly by world income. Relative price, real exchange rate and employment carry negative signs for both long-run and short-run in which the effects of relative price and real exchange rate are statistically significant in the long run which implies that a 1% decrease in relative price, exports will increase by 1.256%. It is found that the coefficient of ECM(-1) is -0.9705 which is statistically significant at any significance level, suggesting that when the export value is above its equilibrium level, it will adjust about 97.05% within the first year. The full convergence process to reach the equilibrium level takes more than a year. Thus, this study will help the economists, policymakers and stakeholders of the garment sector of Bangladesh to predict the dynamics of export demand due to changes in world income level, relative price, real exchange rate and employment.

Juridical Review of International Law Aspects Regarding the Failure of the Lawsuit to Ban Indonesian Nickel Exports in WTO Filed by the European Union

The conflict that occurred between the European Union, which sued Indonesia at the WTO regarding the nickel export ban, is an issue that can be analyzed from an international law perspective. The analysis aims to examine the failure of the lawsuit against Indonesia's nickel export ban filed by the European Union and its implications under international trade law for Indonesia. This research adopts a normative legal research approach. The impacts felt by Indonesia due to the failure of the lawsuit filed by the European Union at the WTO include effects on mining downstream industries, consequences for foreign investors, and environmental impacts resulting from meeting nickel export demands. Consequently, in conclusion, the trade dispute between Indonesia and the European Union has not reached a final resolution. However, Indonesia hopes that the resolution of the trade dispute between Indonesia and the European Union does not escalate to the retaliation stage and ultimately results in a win-win solution for both parties.

The influence of codex guidelines on international trade: An analysis focused on Kimchi

The global food trade, with an estimated value of approximately USD 2,395 billion in 2022, encounters various obstacles pertaining to consumer health and the preservation of species. To mitigate these, governments enact legislation and regulations, potentially hindering international food trade. The FAO and WHO established the Codex Alimentarius Committee in 1963 with the goal of harmonizing international food standards, guidelines, and moral behavior for consumer health and fair trade. This paper analyzes the economic impact of Codex certification on Kimchi trade in Korea. Before Codex, various non-standardized versions of kimchi were marketed globally. The implementation codex standards serve to mitigate these disparities by establishing a standardized global norm. The examination of multivariate import and export demand functions investigates the impact of the codex on the trade dynamics of kimchi. The findings indicate a notable rise in kimchi exports to Japan and an increase in imports from China, resulting in benefits for multiple nations. The analysis employs regression models with variables like export prices, GDP per capita, financial crisis dummies, and Codex accreditation. Findings show Codex significantly increases Korean Kimchi exports by 7,096 metric tonnes annually and Chinese Kimchi imports by 99,628 metric tonnes yearly. This highlights Codex's potential to foster international trade and enhance consumer trust. In conclusion, Codex standards offer a robust framework for safe international trade while ensuring consumer safety and promoting market growth. The study provides insights into the economic implications of Codex standards for global food trade.

An Economic Analysis of Demand for Egyptian Exports of Orange Crop

An Economic Analysis of Demand for Egyptian Exports of Orange Crop

우리나라 주요 수출산업과 농식품산업의 수출결정요인 비교 분석

The global economy is slowing down significantly due to the Russia-U.S. war, rising raw material prices, and global monetary tightening, and the localization of global value chains and global supply chains is actively progressing, especially in countries that have been unstable in global supply chains due to global economic uncertainties. Against this backdrop, strengthening the agricultural base through agricultural exports needs to seek ways to strengthen competitiveness to foster agriculture as a new export industry as it can secure stable sources for major foods that are highly dependent on imports, including food resources, and can be a new opportunity to increase exports of agricultural and fishery foods. In this study, the export demand function of each major industrial group in Korea is estimated and compared with the determinants of export demand for agricultural products. As for the analysis target period, the top 10 exporting countries in Korea were set as analysis target countries for annual data from 1995 to 2022. In summary, it can be seen that factors affecting exports differ by industry group, and factors affecting the export of agricultural products are affected by the trade partner's gross domestic product, per capita gross domestic product, relative price index with trading partner, R&D investment, comparative advantage index by trading partner for specific products, and FTA signing or not.

Determinants of Demand for Egyptian Vegetable and Fruit Exports to The Most Important European Union Countries

Determinants of Demand for Egyptian Vegetable and Fruit Exports to The Most Important European Union Countries

TENORM radiation protection patterns for the sustainable health of workers

Background: Coal production in Indonesia continues to increase to meet national energy needs and export demand. Solid waste from the coal combustion process is estimated to increase significantly. One of the hazardous mining wastes is TENORM, but some TENORM is classified as production goods with economic value. The problem in this research is that the volume of waste containing TENORM is quite large, and the disposal, use, and recycling of TENORM has the potential to cause contamination for workers at the steam power plant and the surrounding environment. Objective: The purpose of this research is to obtain a design model for the protection of the environment and workers against TENORM radioactive waste from coal ash through an analysis of the social and economic perceptions of steam power plant workers regarding TENORM radiation and the effectiveness of TENORM radiation protection education to workers. Methods: A mixed method with a quantitative approach was applied. Data were gathered through field observation utilizing a questionnaire instrument that asked workers working at Steam Power Plant Units 1 – 7 a series of written questions. Results: Prior to Counseling, most Suralaya Steam Power Plant workers had shallow social and economic perceptions of TENORM radiation, with 88 percent unaware of its effects. The majority also paid between 100,000 and 500,000 IDR monthly in medical expenses. All respondents agreed that TENORM radiation safety counseling for Suralaya Steam Power Plant workers was utterly compelling, with acceptance of TENORM and WTP estimates following Counseling being the most important aspect. Conclusion: There was a significant relationship between the WTP variable after Counseling and the variables acceptance of TENORM protection (0.730), TENORM knowledge (0.627) before and after Counseling (after Counseling), and acceptance of TENORM protection (0.648), according to the pattern of protection for the SEM model.

Challenges of Seaweed Cultivation in Nusa Penida for Economic, Tourism, and Environmental Sustainability

Seaweed production in Indonesia is distributed across 23 provinces. The top five provinces in seaweed production, according to rankings, are South Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara, North Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, and West Nusa Tenggara. Among the dozens of seaweed-producing provinces, Bali has the potential for seaweed cultivation, supported by a vast marine area of 95,000 km2. The Nusa Penida sub-district of Klungkung Regency, the community shows interest in becoming seaweed farmers. The accessibility for seaweed farming in Nusa Penida is due to its location approximately ten nautical miles southeast of Bali, and its coastal area is recognized as a "museum" of rare seaweed globally. Farming activities and the seaweed production process have become a mainstay for export activities, contributing significantly to Indonesia's export value. The ease of cultivation and low capital requirements are factors that determine coastal residents' choice to become seaweed farmers. However, seaweed often faces obstacles in meeting domestic and export demands. While seaweed cultivation in Nusa Penida faces challenges, the community's resilience, coupled with innovative solutions and sustainable practices, positions seaweed as a valuable and versatile marine resource with the potential to contribute to both economic development and environmental conservation in the region.

Towards green hydrogen? – A comparison of German and African visions and expectations in the context of the H2Atlas-Africa project

Green hydrogen promises to be critical in achieving a sustainable and renewable energy transition. As green hydrogen is produced with renewables, green hydrogen could become an energy storage medium of the future and even substitute the current unsustainable grey or blue hydrogen used in the industry. Bringing this transition into reality, for instance, in Germany, there are visions to rapidly build hydrogen facilities in Africa and export the produced green hydrogen to Europe. One problem, however, is that these visions presumably conflict with the visions of actors within Africa. Therefore, this study aims to provide an initial assessment of African stakeholders' visions for future energy exports and renewable energy expectations.By comparing visions from Germany and Africa, this assessment was conducted to identify differences in green energy and hydrogen visions that could lead to conflict and similarities that could be the basis for cooperation. The National Hydrogen Strategy outlines the German visions, which clarifies that Germany will have to import green hydrogen to meet its green transition target. In this context of future energy export demand, a partnership between German and African researchers on assessing green hydrogen potentials in Africa started. The African visions were explored by surveying the partners from different African countries working on the project.The results revealed that while both sides see the need for an immediate transition to renewable energy, the African side is not envisioning the immediate export of green hydrogen. Based on the responses, the partners are primarily concerned with improving the continent's still deficient energy access for both the population and industry. Nevertheless, this African perspective greatly emphasises cross-border cooperation, where both sides can realise their visions. In the case of Germany, that German investment could build infrastructure, which would benefit the receiving African country or countries and open up the possibility for the envisioned green hydrogen export to Europe.