Impact of the Sino-US Trade War on Factor Endowment in the China's GBA: A Theoretical Analysis from the Perspective of Factor Endowment Theory

Abstract

Since the Sino-US trade war began in 2018, the two countries and other trading partners have been greatly affected. China's regional economic development has been affected by trade barriers, among which the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is more serious. On the premise that factor endowments determine trade has been proven, this study puts forward the potential impact mechanism of trade on regional factor endowments and takes GBA as an example for theoretical analysis based on factor endowment theory. The results show that due to the decrease in GBA export demand, the labor endowment will decline, the capital endowment will change oppositely to the labor due to the substitution effect and innovation pressure, and the land endowment will decline steadily. However, the movement of factors of production is limited by trade deflection and the restrictive policy. Future mathematical induction based on Heckscher-Ohlin model is needed to prove the results, and the corresponding empirical analysis will verify the relevance and implication.