Retirement Expectations Research Articles

Estimer la valeur monétaire de la qualité d'un emploi

Résumé S’appuyant sur une approche par les « préférences exprimées » au lieu des « préférences révélées », cet article cherche à estimer une valeur monétaire de la qualité des emplois occupés par les salariés en fin de carrière. Il part du constat que ceux occupant des emplois de mauvaise qualité sont moins disposés que les autres à poursuivre leur activité professionnelle : ils accepteraient éventuellement de la prolonger à condition de leur proposer une augmentation plus importante de leur pension de retraite. C’est ce principe de contrepartie financière à la désutilité du travail qui sert de fondement à la monétarisation de la qualité des emplois proposée ici. Exploitant les données d’une enquête originale sur les intentions de départ à la retraite d’un échantillon de salariés âges de 54 ans ou plus et travaillant dans le secteur privé, l’article donne une estimation de cet équivalent monétaire qui montre que l’effet de la qualité de l’emploi sur la propension à poursuivre son activité professionnelle est loin d’être négligeable.

The effects of retirement expectations and social support on post‐retirement adjustment

PurposeThe aim is to examine the shifting effects of retirement expectations and social support on adjustment three and half and ten months post‐retirement.Design/methodology/approachFor the purpose of this study, the authors used a survey methodology. Expectations regarding retirement and social support were used to predict three facets of satisfaction post‐retirement; life satisfaction, retirement satisfaction, and social satisfaction.FindingsResults suggested that expectations consistently and significantly predicted satisfaction early and later in retirement. Social support was only a significant antecedent of retirement satisfaction at time 2, and had a non‐significant relationship to social and life satisfaction in retirement.Practical implicationsResults support the view that retirement expectations have a strong influence on retirement, life, and social satisfaction in the first year of an individual's retirement.Originality/valueThe paper's findings imply that interventions designed to create realistic expectations of the retirement experience may have a positive impact on adjustment.

Expectation Formation of Older Married Couples and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis

This paper tests the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis regarding retirement expectations of married older American couples, controlling for sample selection and reporting biases. In prior research we found that individual retirement expectation formation was consistent with the Rational Expectation hypothesis, but in that work spousal considerations were not analyzed. In this research we take advantage of panel data on expectations to test the RE hypothesis among married individuals as well as joint expectations among couples. We find that regardless of whether we assume that married individuals form their own expectations taking spouse's information as exogenous, or the reports of the couple are the result of a joint expectation formation process, their expectations are consistent with the RE hypothesis. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics that assume rational behavior for married couples.

Retirement Planning and Expectations of Australian Babyboomers

The "babyboomer" generation, those who were born between 1946 and 1965, account for over 30% of the population in Australia, and it is no surprise that the government is concerned about the financial implications for future healthcare costs. While many babyboomers are more financially secure than previous generations have been on account of compulsory superannuation contributions made over the past 15 years, there are still some who are financially vulnerable and expect to rely on government pensions and welfare assistance. Changes to family structures and job security also mean that those who are less financially secure will need social support. Using an ecological framework model, we explored the retirement expectations and experiences of some Australian babyboomers through focus groups and individual interviews to identify key issues and their plans to address these issues. Four main themes are reported in this paper: retirement attitudes and expectations, finances, health, and food. The results suggested that for many persons retirement equated freedom. Little future planning was undertaken for retirement other than contributing to superannuation schemes, and expectations were reported in general terms, such as wanting to remain independent and healthy and to have time to socialize and travel.

Why Do Boomers Plan to Work Longer?

. Recent changes in retirement trends and patterns have raised questions about the likely retirement behavior of baby boomers, the large cohort born between 1946 and 1964. This study examined recent changes in retirement expectations and the factors that drove them. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, the analysis compared self-reported probabilities of working full time past ages 62 and 65 among workers aged 51 to 56 in 1992 and 2004. The study modeled retirement expectations for both generations and used the estimated regression coefficients to identify the forces that accounted for generational differences. . Between 1992 and 2004, the mean self-reported probability of working full time past age 65 among workers aged 51 to 56 increased from 27% to 33%. Lower rates of retiree health insurance offers from employers, higher levels of educational attainment, and lower rates of defined benefit pension coverage accounted for most of the growth. Given the continued erosion in employer-sponsored retiree health benefits and defined benefit pension plans, boomers will likely remain at work longer than members of the previous generation. Lengthier careers will likely promote economic growth, increase government revenue, and improve individual financial security at older ages.

Orientation, opportunity and autonomy: why people work after state pension age in three areas of England

ABSTRACTWith the central players in the United Kingdom policy debate on pensions schemes and funding advocating an extension to the average working life (or, more precisely, a rise in the age of ceasing work), this paper reports the findings of qualitative interviews with men and women at or approaching state pension age that examined what motivated some people to continue to work after that age. By exploring their work histories and orientations to work, the paper shows that people from different social and occupational backgrounds not only conceive work and retirement in different ways but also have contrasting opportunities to continue in occupations after retirement age. Their attitudes and the opportunities they encounter shape the decisions they make at state pension age. Distinctions are drawn between those who articulated an identity as a ‘worker’ and those who defined themselves as ‘professionals and creatives’, and within those categories, between the employed and self-employed. The paper elucidates the tensions between individuals' normative expectations of retirement, their desire for autonomy and flexibility in later life, and the financial and occupational reality of life after state pension age. We argue that understanding the different cultural meanings of work and retirement for different types of worker has implications for the design and implementation of policies to extend working life.

How Did the Elimination of the Earnings Test Above the Normal Retirement Age Affect Retirement Expectations?

The authors look at the effect of the 2000 repeal of the earnings test above the normal retirement age on retirement expectations of workers in the Health and Retirement Study, aged 51 to 61 in 1992. For men, they find that those whose marginal wage rate increased when the earnings test was repealed, had the largest increase in the probability to work full-time past normal retirement age. They do not find significant evidence of effects of the repeal of the earnings test on the probability to work past age 62 or the expected claiming age. On the other hand, for those reaching the normal retirement age, deviations between the age at which Social Security benefits are actually claimed and the previously reported expected age are more negative in 2000 than in 1998. Since their calculations show that the tax introduced by the earnings test was small when accounting for actuarial benefit adjustments and differential mortality, their results suggest that although male workers form expectations in a way consistent with forward-looking behavior, they misperceive the complicated rules of the earnings test. Results for females suggest similar patterns but estimates are imprecise.

Professional Development in Retirement: The Top Rung on the Career Ladder

Retirement means different things to different people. For some, it is the endless summer, for others the freedom to travel down a new career path. For all, it is a time of significant change. Three prominent "retired" health educators share with us their retirement expectations, realities, and advice.

Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation

We estimate the effect of pension reforms on households' expectations of retirement outcomes and private wealth accumulation decisions exploiting a decade of intense Italian pension reforms as a source of exogenous variation in expected pension wealth. The Survey of Household Income and Wealth, a large random sample of the Italian population, elicits expectations of the age at which workers expect to retire and of the ratio of pension benefits to pre-retirement income between 1989 and 2002. We find that workers have revised expectations in the direction suggested by the reform and that there is substantial offset between private wealth and perceived pension wealth, particularly by workers that are better informed about their pension wealth.

Retirement expectations: gender differences and partner effects in an Australian employer‐funded sample

Objectives: The concept of retirement has been undergoing change, and opportunities for a variety of retirement lifestyle options are increasing. Retirement plans for one cohort are examined in this context. Method: Responses to a questionnaire of some 200 public‐sector employees attending a retirement seminar were analysed by gender. Results: Findings suggest that both men and women viewed retirement as a positive experience, focusing on opportunities for further personal development. This approach was more evident among women. However, both men and women would prefer to maintain a form of reduced employment after retiring. There were no gender differences in reasons for retiring at that time, but those with partners were more likely to retire because of family responsibilities. Conclusions: Implications for theories of ageing and public policy are discussed. A more flexible approach to retirement policy is urged. Retirement may provide more opportunities for personal growth than decline.

Savings, Portfolio Choice, and Retirement Expectations

Studying household investment behavior is essential for understanding the full consequences of old age social security benefits. Using data from six waves of the Health and Retirement Study, we analyze the dynamics of portfolio composition before respondents start claiming social security benefits. We consider ownership as well as amounts held of several types of assets and debts. Using panel data censored regression models, portfolio adjustment is explained on the basis of demographics like gender, race, and year of birth, education level, household income, and perceived social security entitlements. We find that expectations of old age social security benefits have little effect on portfolio decisions, although there is some evidence that higher expected social security benefits lead to more risky financial investments, particularly in IRAs.

Why Do Boomers Plan to Work so Long?

Recent changes in retirement trends and patterns have raised questions about the likely retirement behavior of baby boomers, the large cohort born between 1946 and 1964. This study compares the retirement expectations of workers ages 51 to 56 in 2004 (who were born between 1948 and 1953, the leading edge of the baby boom) and 1992 (born between 1936 and 1941). Data come from the Health and Retirement Study. Work expectations increased significantly over the period. Between 1992 and 2004, the mean expected probability of working full-time past age 62 among workers ages 51 to 56 increased from 47 percent to 51 percent. The increase was even more rapid for the expected mean probability of full-time work after age 65, which grew from 27 percent to about 33 percent over the period. Controlling for other factors, self employment, education, and earnings increased work expectations at older ages, while defined benefit pension coverage, employer-sponsored retiree health benefits, and household wealth reduced expectations. Lower rates of retiree health insurance offers from employers, higher levels of educational attainment, and lower rates of defined benefit pension coverage accounted for most of the increase between 1992 and 2004 in expected work probabilities after ages 62 and 65. These trends suggest that the boomers will remain at work longer than the previous generation. The recent uptick in average retirement ages appears to be the leading edge of a new long-term trend. Lengthier careers will likely promote economic growth, increase government revenue, and improve individual financial security at older ages.

Can Unexpected Retirement Explain the Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence for Subjective Retirement Expectations

Previous research finds a systematic fall in consumption at retirement, even when these retirements are expected, which implies households do not behave as predicted by the lifecycle/ permanent income hypothesis. However, the worker's expected date of retirement is typically predicted using an instrument - age - that we show to be correlated with unexpected retirements and will therefore lead to biased estimates. In this paper, we use an alternative instrument for expected retirement: workers' own subjective beliefs of their expected retirement dates. We find that subjective retirement expectations provide strong predictive power for subsequent retirements above and beyond the impact of age on retirement probabilities. We still find, however, that consumption falls for workers who retire when expected although the estimated impact is 50 percent smaller when using retirement expectations as an instrument instead of age.

Timing of retirement: Including a delay discounting perspective in retirement models

This research examined the influence of delay and anticipated health and enjoyment on the amount of retirement savings sacrificed for early retirement. In addition to testing and supporting predictions that willingness to sacrifice retirement savings would be less with shorter delays to retirement, greater anticipated health, and greater anticipated enjoyment, an individual difference delay discounting measure derived from experimental studies was used to extend the Beehr, Glazer, Nielson, and Farmer’s (2000) model of retirement age. We predicted and found that oldest preferred retirement age related to personal characteristics, current work factors, future retirement factors, and individual differences in delay discounting, with greater delay discounting being associated with a younger preferred retirement age. Findings suggest that delay discounting is an important consideration in retirement planning and also highlight the significance that retirement expectations and being tired of work have in affecting one’s preferred retirement age.

The Rationality of Retirement Expectations and the Role of New Information

This paper tests the rationality of retirement expectations, controlling for sample selection and reporting biases. We find that retirement expectations in the Health and Retirement Study are consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis. We also analyze how new information affects the evolution of retirement expectations and discover that, on average, individuals correctly anticipate most uncertain events when planning their retirement, except for some health shocks, the need for additional private health coverage, and the probability of a job change. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics that assume rational behavior.

Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis

This paper tests the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis regarding retirement expectations of older married American couples, controlling for sample selection and reporting biases. In prior research we found that individual retirement expectation formation was consistent with the Rational Expectation hypothesis, but in that work spousal considerations were not analyzed. In this research we take advantage of panel data on expectations to test the RE hypothesis among married individuals as well as joint expectations among couples. We find that regardless of whether we assume that married individuals form their own expectations taking spouse's information as exogenous, or the reports of the couple are the result of a joint expectation formation process, their expectations are consistent with the RE hypothesis. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics that assume rational behavior of married couples.

Maintaining competence in radiological protection in emergency situations: a challenge for the 21st century.

State-of-the-art radiological protection in emergency situations requires specific technical resources, qualified personnel and competence in a variety of scientific and technical areas. In many developed countries a high technical standard is available currently in these areas. There are, however, strong indicators that future expertise is at risk. The indicators are declining university enrolment, dilution of university course content and high retirement expectations of staff members, with little or no replacement planned. This paper describes the underlying problem and makes recommendations for an action plan that includes both short-term actions and a long-term strategy to minimise the emerging risks. A strategic approach will be required to stop the decline and to avoid a drop in competence to an unacceptable level.

Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations

Previous research finds a systematic decrease in consumption at retirement, a finding that is inconsistent with the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis if retirement is an expected event. In this paper, we use workers' subjective beliefs about their retirement dates as an instrument for retirement. After demonstrating that subjective retirement expectations are strong predictors of subsequent retirement decisions, we still find a consumption decline at retirement for workers who retire when expected. However, our estimates of this consumption fall are about a third less than those found when we instead rely on the instrumental variables strategy used in prior studies.

Health and Retirement: Do Changes in Health Affect Retirement Expectations?

Health and Retirement: Do Changes in Health Affect Retirement Expectations?

Work related attitudes of naval officers before and after retirement.

Prospective expectations for retirement and retrospective accounts of past work experiences are typically used in cross-sectional empirical studies of retirement. Unfortunately, little is known about the accuracy of such accounts. Therefore, in the present longitudinal study, we built on the work of Beehr and Nielson (1995) by examining the consistency of these accounts over time using data from 672 military retirees over a four- to five-year period. Mixed evidence for the consistency of these attitudes across time was found. Specifically, our results are much weaker than Beehr and Nielson's results, thus suggesting that longer time intervals between measurements may erode the accuracy of prospective estimates and retrospective accounts. Results are discussed in terms of the uniqueness of the military retirement and how civilian retirement and military retirement are becoming similar.