Evolution Of COVID-19 Research Articles

A general urban spreading pattern of COVID-19 and its underlying mechanism

Currently, the global situation of COVID-19 is aggravating, pressingly calling for efficient control and prevention measures. Understanding the spreading pattern of COVID-19 has been widely recognized as a vital step for implementing non-pharmaceutical measures. Previous studies explained the differences in contagion rates due to the urban socio-political measures, while fine-grained geographic urban spreading pattern still remains an open issue. Here, we fill this gap by leveraging the trajectory data of 197,808 smartphone users (including 17,808 anonymous confirmed cases) in nine cities in China. We find a general spreading pattern in all cities: the spatial distribution of confirmed cases follows a power-law-like model and the spreading centroid human mobility is time-invariant. Moreover, we reveal that long average traveling distance results in a high growth rate of spreading radius and wide spatial diffusion of confirmed cases in the fine-grained geographic model. With such insight, we adopt the Kendall model to simulate the urban spreading of COVID-19 which can well fit the real spreading process. Our results unveil the underlying mechanism behind the spatial-temporal urban evolution of COVID-19, and can be used to evaluate the performance of mobility restriction policies implemented by many governments and to estimate the evolving spreading situation of COVID-19.

GM Allotypes and COVID-19. A Pilot Study Performed on Sicilian Patients.

Several studies suggest that genetic variants that influence the onset, maintenance and resolution of the immune response might be fundamental in predicting the evolution of COVID-19. In the present paper, we analysed the distribution of GM allotypes (the genetic markers of immunoglobulin γ chains) in symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 patients and in healthy controls, all born and residing in Sicily. Indeed, the role played by GM allotypes in immune responses and infection control is well known. Our findings show that the GM23 allotype is significantly reduced in healthy controls. Interestingly, in a previous study, Sicilians carrying the GM23 allotype were associated with the risk of developing a symptomatic Human Cytomegalovirus infection. However, a note of caution should be considered, due to the small sample size of patients and controls.

Spatio-temporal evolution of COVID-19 in the Republic of Ireland and the Greater Dublin Area (March to November 2020): A space-time cluster frequency approach

• Early hotspots of COVID-19 infection were identified around the main urban areas of Ireland and most especially in the Greater Dublin Area. • A higher level of deprivation was linked to a high space-time cluster frequency in the Greater Dublin Area. • A lower level of education and a higher population density was associated with the presence of a space-time cluster in the Republic of Ireland. • The high space-time cluster frequency and delayed response observed in Northern counties tend to suggest a spillover effect from the Northern-Ireland border.

Current and Emerging Knowledge in COVID-19.

COVID-19 has emerged as a pandemic leading to a global public health crisis of unprecedented morbidity. A comprehensive insight into the imaging of COVID-19 has enabled early diagnosis, stratification of disease severity, and identification of potential sequelae. The evolution of COVID-19 can be divided into early infectious, pulmonary, and hyperinflammatory phases. Clinical features, imaging features, and management are different among the three phases. In the early stage, peripheral ground-glass opacities are predominant CT findings, and therapy directly targeting SARS-CoV-2 is effective. In the later stage, organizing pneumonia or diffuse alveolar damage pattern are predominant CT findings and anti-inflammatory therapies are more beneficial. The risk of severe disease or hospitalization is lower in breakthrough or Omicron variant infection compared with nonimmunized or Delta variant infections. The protection rates of the fourth dose of mRNA vaccination were 34% and 67% against overall infection and hospitalizations for severe illness, respectively. After acute COVID-19 pneumonia, most residual CT abnormalities gradually decreased in extent, but they may remain as linear or multifocal reticular or cystic lesions. Advanced insights into the pathophysiologic and imaging features of COVID-19 along with vaccine benefits have improved patient care, but emerging knowledge of post-COVID-19 condition, or long COVID, also presents radiology with new challenges.

Diabetes and SARS-CoV-2 Infection: The Potential Role of Antidiabetic Therapy in the Evolution of COVID-19.

Diabetes mellitus represents one of the most frequent comorbidities among patients with COVID-19, constituting a risk factor for a more severe prognosis than that of non-diabetic patients. However, the pathophysiological mechanism underlying this unfavorable outcome is still not completely clear. The goal of our study was to evaluate the potential role of antidiabetic therapy in the evolution of COVID-19.

Dysphagia prevalence and outcomes associated with the evolution of COVID-19 and its variants

Dysphagia prevalence and outcomes associated with the evolution of COVID-19 and its variants

Factors associated with the evolution of COVID-19 in pregnant women: a Brazilian population-based study.

To assess the evolution of COVID-19 among Brazilian pregnant women, identifying sociodemographic and clinical predictors related to admission to ICU - Intensive Care Unit and death. Cross-sectional, population-based study, carried out with a secondary database, based on data from the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System. Descriptive analysis was performed, followed by multiple linear regression with Poisson response, adopting critical p < 0.05. Intensive care admission rates of 28.2% and death rates of 9.5% were identified. Region of residence, gestational trimester, number of comorbidities and respiratory signs and symptoms were associated with the risk of admission to intensive care. Age over 34 years, comorbidities, oxygen saturation equal to or less than 95%, admission to intensive care and ventilatory support, invasive or not, increased the risk of death. Sociodemographic and clinical predictors showed an association with hospitalization in intensive care and death of pregnant women with COVID-19.

Factors associated with the evolution of COVID-19 in pregnant women: a Brazilian population-based study

RESUMO Objetivo: Avaliar a evolução da COVID-19 entre gestantes brasileiras, identificando-se os preditores sociodemográficos e clínicos relacionados à internação em unidade de terapia intensiva e ao óbito. Método: Estudo transversal e de base populacional, realizado com banco de dados secundários, a partir de dados do Sistema de Informação da Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe. Realizou-se análise descritiva, seguida de regressão linear múltipla com resposta Poisson, adotando-se p crítico &lt;0,05. Resultados: Identificaram-se taxas de internação em terapia intensiva de 28,2% e de óbito de 9,5%. Região de residência, trimestre gestacional, número de comorbidades e sinais e sintomas respiratórios associaram-se ao risco de internação em terapia intensiva. Idade superior a 34 anos, comorbidades, saturação de oxigênio igual ou inferior a 95%, internação em terapia intensiva e suporte ventilatório, invasivo ou não, aumentaram o risco de óbito. Conclusão: Preditores sociodemográficos e clínicos mostraram associação com a hospitalização em terapia intensiva e com o óbito de gestantes com COVID-19.

Examining the impact of the COVID-19 vaccine on pneumonia cases using a SEIR type model

In this study, the effect of vaccination on the evolution of COVID19 to pneumonia was investigated using a developed SEIR-type compartmental disease model. Equilibrium points were determined for the model, its stability was examined, and the basic reproduction number was calculated. To obtain numerical solutions for the model, two periods of 62 days were used. The data was obtained from the website of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Turkey. The effectiveness of the vaccine was examined by comparing these two periods. Graphs of the numerical solutions were then created, and their compatibility with the real data was examined.

Response to COVID-19 in Lebanon: Update, Challenges and Lessons Learned.

The COVID-19 pandemic remains a public health problem threatening national and global health security. The socio-economic impact of COVID-19 was more severe on developing countries including Lebanon, especially due to the fragile healthcare system, weak surveillance infrastructure and lack of comprehensive emergency preparedness and response plans. Lebanon has been struggling with plethora of challenges at the social, economic, financial, political and healthcare levels prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic in Lebanon revealed gaps and challenges across the spectrum of preparedness and response to emergencies. Despite these challenges, the Lebanese response was successful in delaying the steep surge of COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations through imposing strict public health and social measures. The deployment of the national vaccination plan in Lebanon in February 2021 coincided with the reduction in the number of cases and hospitalisation rates. The aim of this manuscript is to advance the epidemiologic evolution of COVID-19 in Lebanon pre- and post-vaccination, the challenges affecting the response and recovery, and the lessons learned.

COVID-19 presentation and outcomes in patients with inflammatory rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases receiving IL6-receptor antagonists prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection

ObjectiveCOVID-19 outcome may be less favourable in patients with inflammatory rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMD) receiving immunosuppressive therapy. We aimed to investigate whether RMD patients on anti-IL6 therapy prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection have less severe disease and better outcomes of COVID-19. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective national, multicentre cohort study using data from the French RMD COVID-19 cohort. We compared the severity and outcome of highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 infection in RMD patients previously treated with tocilizumab or sarilumab (anti-IL6 group) with patients who did not receive anti-IL6 therapy (no anti-IL6 group). ResultsData were collected for 1883 patients with mean age of 55.2 years [SD 16.7] and 1256 (66.7%) female. Two hundred ten (11.1%) developed severe COVID-19 and 115 (6.4%) died. After adjusting for potential confounding factors, severe COVID-19 was less frequent in the anti-IL6 group compared with the no anti-IL6 group (aOR for moderate vs. mild severity, 0.23 [95% CI, 0.10 to 0.54], p ≤ 0.01 and aOR for severe vs. mild, 0.29 [95% CI, 0.10 to 0.81], p ≤ 0.01). No significant differences were found for the evolution of COVID-19 between the anti-IL6 group and the no anti-IL6 group (aOR for recovery with sequelae vs recovery without sequelae, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.41 to 1.48] and aOR for death vs recovery without sequelae, 0.29 [95% CI, 0.07 to 1.30]). ConclusionRMD patients receiving anti-IL6 therapy prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection have less severe forms of COVID-19. No difference was observed in COVID-19 evolution, i.e., sequelae or death, between the groups.

Deploying Change Modeling to Study the Evolution of COVID-19 Related Menstrual Health Issues

Deploying Change Modeling to Study the Evolution of COVID-19 Related Menstrual Health Issues

Study of Spatio-Temporal Evolution, Integrated Prevention, and Control Measures of COVID-19 in the Yangtze River Delta.

The study analyzes the spatial characteristics of the epidemic. It evaluates the effectiveness of its differentiated prevention and control policies implemented at different stages of the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta. The study divided the epidemic into 2 stages and analyzed the spatial evolution characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the region by using Anselin Local Moran's I and standard deviation ellipse. In the first stage, the high value of confirmed cases was concentrated in the eastern and southern cities. The trajectory of the barycenter showed a V-shaped change characterized by a southward shift followed by a northward fluctuation. In contrast, the second stage was mainly concentrated in Jiangsu Province and Shanghai, and the Barycenter did not change over time. The diversified prevention and control measures enabled 'zero new cases' in the Yangtze River Delta within a month. The prevention and control policy implemented in the Yangtze River Delta has worked well. With the global pandemic of COVID-19, it is recommended that other countries follow the example of the Yangtze River Delta, tighten prevention policies, and speed up vaccination to avoid a rebound of the epidemic.

Analysis of oral changes in hospitalized patients with Covid-19: a retrospective cohort study

The outbreak of a new coronavirus was identified in Wuhan, China in late 2019. SARS-CoV-2, spreads through salivary droplets from a carrier causing a respiratory illness. Its clinical behavior is variable and manifests itself with mild symptoms, moderate or developing a severe respiratory infection. The oral cavity was identified as a gateway for the virus and evaluating its possible role as an aggravating factor in the infectivity and progression of the infection was the objective of this study. A retrospective cohort study was performed with data from 274 medical records of patients with COVID-19. They were collected at the patient's admission, with seven and fourteen days to analyze the occurrence of oral alterations and relate them to the severity of the infection. In total, 154 patients had oral alterations. The most frequent oral alteration was the presence of ulcerations in the mucosa at the three collection times (T0, T1 and T2). Complementary tests were red blood cells, platelets, leukocytes, bleeding time, TGP, TGO, albumin, creatinine, CRP, urea, d-dimer and leukocyte-lymphocyte ratio. No predictors were observed for the development of oral changes in patients with COVID 19. Changes in the oral mucosa were observed in most of the patients analyzed. An association between diabetic patients and the presence of oral lesions was observed in the evaluated patients, after 7 and 14 days. The study revealed that patients with changes in the oral mucosa had a more severe evolution of COVID-19, including death, indicating that the presence of oral changes may be related to an unfavorable prognosis of the infection.

Covid-19: monitoring of patients’ laboratory data during a 90-day length of hospital stay

Background: In March 2020, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. In this study, patients were selected through the chest HRCT diagnosis. Laboratory tests such as blood count, fibrinogen, D-dimer, AST, ALT, troponin, LDH, albumin, CRP, electrolytes and ferritin were analyzed. Aims: To monitor the laboratory evolution of COVID-19 in patients during hospitalization. Method: Of 115 patients, 93 were selected and analyzed every three days for 90 days. Data were analyzed using the IBM, SPSS, Statistics for Windows, 23.0 software. Results: 34.4% were female, and 65.6% male; Hct and Hb dropped after the 13th day of hospitalization; leukocyte levels remained up to 15,000, increasing to &gt;20,000 after the 55th day of hospitalization; lymphopenia occurred in 10 to 15% of the patients, with increased eosinophils; platelet levels decreased at the end of hospitalization. Fibrinogen, D-dimer, LDH, CRP and ferritin levels increased throughout the hospitalization period. Urea and creatinine increased slightly from the 30th day onwards. There were no alterations in PTA, troponin, chlorine, potassium and albumin levels, with a decrease throughout the hospitalization period. Conclusion: Knowledge of the behavior of laboratory tests together with the disease evolution give support to the clinical and therapeutic management of COVID-19.

Modeling the Geospatial Evolution of COVID-19 using Spatio-temporal Convolutional Sequence-to-sequence Neural Networks

Europe was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and Portugal was severely affected, having suffered three waves in the first twelve months. Approximately between January 19th and February 5th 2021 Portugal was the country in the world with the largest incidence rate, with 14-day incidence rates per 100,000 inhabitants in excess of 1,000. Despite its importance, accurate prediction of the geospatial evolution of COVID-19 remains a challenge, since existing analytical methods fail to capture the complex dynamics that result from the contagion within a region and the spreading of the infection from infected neighboring regions. We use a previously developed methodology and official municipality level data from the Portuguese Directorate-General for Health (DGS), relative to the first twelve months of the pandemic, to compute an estimate of the incidence rate in each location of mainland Portugal. The resulting sequence of incidence rate maps was then used as a gold standard to test the effectiveness of different approaches in the prediction of the spatial-temporal evolution of the incidence rate. Four different methods were tested: a simple cell level autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, a cell level vector autoregressive (VAR) model, a municipality-by-municipality compartmental SIRD model followed by direct block sequential simulation, and a new convolutional sequence-to-sequence neural network model based on the STConvS2S architecture. We conclude that the modified convolutional sequence-to-sequence neural network is the best performing method in this task, when compared with the ARMA, VAR, and SIRD models, as well as with the baseline ConvLSTM model.

Tourism stock price and COVID-19: medium-term relationship with passenger transport, hotel, and tour operator subsectors

ABSTRACT COVID-19 has had a devastating effect on tourism in Spain, one of the world’s biggest tourist destinations and also one of the first countries to face the consequences of the pandemic. Tourism stock prices showed high volatility at the beginning of the pandemic. However, we do not yet know whether this relationship has remained throughout the pandemic and the effect it has had on the main subsectors of tourism. Quantifying this relationship in the medium term makes it possible to predict the effect of the pandemic on the tourism sector stock market and to compare the impact on its different subsectors. A dynamic regression model has been developed to predict the stock price of the hotel, passenger transport, and tour operator subsectors in Spain, based on the evolution of COVID-19. Cumulative COVID-19 deaths have been confirmed to be a good predictor of abnormal stock price in the main tourism subsectors, affecting passenger transport more intensely than hotels or tour operators.

Use of temporal contact graphs to understand the evolution of COVID-19 through contact tracing data

Digital contact tracing has been recently advocated by China and many countries as part of digital prevention measures on COVID-19. Controversies have been raised about their effectiveness in practice as it remains open how they can be fully utilized to control COVID-19. In this article, we show that an abundance of information can be extracted from digital contact tracing for COVID-19 prevention and control. Specifically, we construct a temporal contact graph that quantifies the daily contacts between infectious and susceptible individuals by exploiting a large volume of location-related data contributed by 10,527,737 smartphone users in Wuhan, China. The temporal contact graph reveals five time-varying indicators can accurately capture actual contact trends at population level, demonstrating that travel restrictions (e.g., city lockdown) in Wuhan played an important role in containing COVID-19. We reveal a strong correlation between the contacts level and the epidemic size, and estimate several significant epidemiological parameters (e.g., serial interval). We also show that user participation rate exerts higher influence on situation evaluation than user upload rate does, indicating a sub-sampled dataset would be as good at prediction. At individual level, however, the temporal contact graph plays a limited role, since the behavior distinction between the infected and uninfected individuals are not substantial. The revealed results can tell the effectiveness of digital contact tracing against COVID-19, providing guidelines for governments to implement interventions using information technology.

Reliability and Validity of an Instrument of COVID-19 Patient-Reported Symptoms in Outpatients

Patient-reported outcome instruments are key in assessing COVID-19-related symptoms and associated burden. However, a valid and reliable instrument to assess symptom severity and progression among outpatients with COVID-19 is not yet available. To assess the extent to which the Symptoms Evolution of COVID-19 (SE-C19) instrument is valid, reliable, and able to detect symptom changes in outpatients with COVID-19, as well as to establish a definition of symptom resolution. In this diagnostic/prognostic study, psychometric properties of SE-C19 were assessed in participants recruited into an ongoing, adaptive, phase 1/2/3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial, during 2020 to 2022. Adult outpatients with symptomatic COVID-19 were randomized 1:1:1 to receive 2.4 g or 8.0 g intravenous casirivimab and imdevimab or placebo, in outpatient centers at 114 sites, from 2 countries (US and Mexico). Reliability, validity, and sensitivity to change of the SE-C19 were assessed. SE-C19 and Patient Global Impression of Severity (PGIS) were administered daily from predose at day 1 to day 29. Analysis was conducted on 657 adult outpatients (342 female patients [52.1%], 562 White patients [85.5%]), and 337 non-Hispanic patients [51.3%]. At baseline, patients reported a mean (SD) of 6.6 (3.9) symptoms (ie, rated as at least mild) with a mean (SD) of 3.8 (3.3) of these symptoms being rated as moderate or severe. Stable patients according to PGIS showed scores with intraclass correlation values indicating moderate-to-good test-retest reliability (ie, 0.50-0.90). At baseline, 20 item scores (87%) varied significantly across PGIS-defined groups, supporting the validity of the SE-C19. A symptom-resolution end point was defined after excluding the item sneezing due to its low ability to discriminate severity levels, and excluding confusion, rash, and vomiting, due to their low prevalence in this population. Symptom resolution required complete absence of all remaining items, except cough, fatigue, and headache, which could be mild or moderate in severity. A total of 19 of 23 items from the SE-C19 instrument were identified as valid and reliable to measure disease-related symptoms in outpatients with COVID-19. This study identified 19 items that are valid and reliable to measure disease-related symptoms in outpatients with COVID-19, and proposed a definition of symptom resolution for potential use in future clinical trials.

Genomic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in Reunion Island.

Island communities are interesting study sites for microbial evolution during epidemics, as their insular nature reduces the complexity of the population's connectivity. This was particularly true on Reunion Island during the first half of 2021, when international travel was restricted in order to mitigate the risk for SARS-CoV-2 introductions. Concurrently, the SARS-CoV-2 Beta variant became dominant and started to circulate at high levels for several months before being completely replaced by the Delta variant as of October 2021. Here, we explore some of the particularities of SARS-CoV-2 genomic evolution within the insular context of Reunion Island. We show that island isolation allowed the amplification and expansion of unique genetic lineages that remained uncommon across the globe. Islands are therefore potential hotspots for the emergence of new genetic variants, meaning that they will play a key role in the continued evolution and propagation of COVID-19 as the pandemic persists.