Investment Cost Estimates Research Articles

Organization of public private partnership in the renovation of urban areas

Currently, renovation of industrial areas and search for its organization forms has become a pressing issue for many cities. The introduction of public private partnership as a new form of organization in this sphere encountered the lack and need of consideration of the social factor. Today, this problem is a serious obstacle to the implementation of this type of organization of development of industrial areas of the city. At the same time, none of the existing methods of investment project evaluation, including those implemented under public private partnerships, provides for a comprehensive evaluation of the social factor. Ignoring this kind of evaluation will result in capital risk, higher costs and increased time to complete projects. The authors propose to consider a methodology for evaluating the utilization efficiency of former industrial areas, which is based on principles of integral assessment which includes the social factor. The result of the author's methodology is that it: will, in view of the social factor, determine the amount of total investment as the sum of costs before entering contracts. Investment cost estimation in this case will cease to be spontaneous, while the process of construction organization becomes manageable.

ANALISIS KELAYAKAN USAHA PENGOLAHAN GAHARU DARI KABUPATEN ASMAT

Feasibility analysis/study is a way to determine the feasibility of the business in terms economic , technical, and financial. The result of this analysis can give benefit as a guide for entrepeneurs, farmers, government to etermine the investment decision. This research/thesis aim to examine the aloes processing aspect, such as: production, managerial, commercial, economic value, environmental impact the aloes marketing chain, and analyze the feasibility of pig aloes processing of Asmat district.This study uses financial analysis, including : Net Present Value (NPV), Net B/C Ratio, Internal Rate Of Return (IRR), Break Event Point (BEP), Payback Period (PP), Sesitivity analysis was also performed, considering the uncertainrty in the parameters and cultivation analysis as comparison of aloes business in nature exploitation.The result of this study show that business of aloes pig processing of Asmat is feasible. If the business activity was conducted in Asmat district with an estimate investment costs increased by 200% the business is feasible. It is recommended to carry out does cultivation in order to preserve the forest, aloes host tree preservation, and sustainability of the aloes processing business.

IGDT-based robust decision making applied to merchant-based transmission expansion planning

Summary Deregulation in power systems has created new uncertainties and increased the previous ones. The presence of these uncertainties causes the transmission network to remain monopoly and the private investors not being interested in investing in this section. This paper presents a new merchant-based transmission expansion planning (TEP) formulation from the viewpoint of private investors. The information-gap decision theory (IGDT) is used to model the inherent uncertainties associated with the estimated investment cost of candidate lines and the forecasted system load and NSGAII is utilized to solve the multi-objective optimization problem. This algorithm helps private investors to select the best lines for investment in the presence of uncertainties. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, it has been applied to the IEEE RTS 24-bus system and the simplified Iranian 400-kV transmission system. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Renewable Energy Supply and Demand for the City of El Gouna, Egypt

The paper discusses a supply and demand scenario using renewable energy sources for the city El Gouna in Egypt as an example for a self-supplying community. All calculations are based on measured meteorological data and real power demand during the year 2013. The modeled energy system consists of a concentrating solar tower plant with thermal storage and low-temperature seawater desalination unit as well as an integrated photovoltaic plant and a wind turbine. The low-temperature desalination unit has been newly developed in order to enable the utilization of waste heat from power conversion processes by improved thermal efficiency. In the study, special attention is given to the surplus power handling generated by the photovoltaic and wind power plant. Surplus power is converted into heat and stored in the thermal storage system of the solar power plant in order to increase the capacity factor. A brief estimation of investment costs have been conducted as well in order to outline the economic performance of the modeled energy and water supply system.

Case Study: Wind Electricity Cooperation Between Albania and the EU Under Joint Projects and Statistical Transfer

This report aims to identify the savings that EU countries with expensive renewable energy options would incur if a joint wind project was developed in Albania. It further investigates the potential to share the renewable electricity from such a project between Albania and the EU. In its draft National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP), the Albanian government outlined several potential wind power projects. Among these we selected one which is located in the north of the country, close to developed transmission grids, and is sufficient in size to attract international investors. The envisaged Lezhe wind power plant would have an installed capacity of 230 MW and estimated investment costs of 275 million EUR.

국가항공안전비용 산출방법론에 관한 연구

The world air transport industry has grown steadily with quantitative expansion. The volume of air transport in the world is skyrocketing with the open-sky trend. Air passengers from or to South Korea has shown 5% of annual growth for the last couple of decades which caused South Korea now ranking in 18th in the World for air transport market size. Quantitative expansion of Air transport affects in policy making of air transport operators, such as airports, airlines or authorities, directly and indirectly. Especially, Aviation Safety field should be supported by policy regime with the growth of air transport volume, assured resources for continuous monitoring is standing out as a vital factor. This study is to estimate social costs caused by aviation accidents and investment costs for aviation safety by airports, airlines and authorities as operators. Estimated investment costs for aviation safety verified by comparing and analysing them. Precedent studies were reviewed to refer research methodology to calculate aviation accident costs and safety costs of operators. Safety costs of operators was calculated with literature researches and interview surveys among professionals of each operators in rational range.

Energy analysis of two stage packed-bed chemical looping combustion configurations for integrated gasification combined cycles

Chemical looping combustion is a promising technology for power production with integrated CO2 capture. High overall efficiencies can be reached, if the CLC reactors are operated at elevated pressures and high temperature, which can be accommodated in packed bed reactors. More possible oxygen carriers can be selected if the desired temperature rise for power production is achieved in a two stage chemical looping combustion (TS-CLC) process. In this work, the TS-CLC configuration using copper and manganese based oxygen carriers has been integrated in a complete power plant based on coal gasification (IG-CLC). An extensive energy analysis based on the combined use of a packed bed reactor modeling tool and a complete process simulation has been undertaken. An economic estimation of the reactors capital cost has also been carried out.From the material and energy balances the IG-CLC with one stage nickel-based CLC process results in a net electric efficiency of 41.1% on low heating value basis. In case of TS-CLC, efficiencies of 40.3%–40.8% have been obtained. This demonstrated that IGCC (integrated gasification combined cycles) adopting a TS-CLC process can also achieve high efficiency compared to conventional CO2 capture technologies. Although a larger reactor volume is required for TS-CLC, the total estimated investment costs are a factor two lower, because the oxygen carriers are much cheaper.

Comparison on process efficiency for CLC of syngas operated in packed bed and fluidized bed reactors

Chemical-looping combustion can be carried either in circulating fluidized bed reactors or in dynamically operated packed bed reactors. In this work, the influence of the reactor selection on the overall process efficiency has been estimated. The CLC reactors are fed with syngas at 20bar, which is produced from coal gasification.In the fluidized bed system, the oxygen carrier particles are transferred from the air to the fuel reactor and vice versa. Uniform reactor temperatures can be maintained due to internal solids circulation and vigorous mixing. Due to the large solids circulation and low reaction enthalpy in the syngas-fed fuel reactor, small temperature differences result between the reactors. A case where NiO/Al2O3 is used as oxygen carrier has been considered and an LHV efficiency of 41.4% has been calculated, assuming the fuel conversion at chemical equilibrium, leading to some unconverted CO and H2 in the reaction products. If full gas conversion is obtained by using another oxygen carrier operating at the same maximum temperature of 1200°C, this efficiency can be increased to 41.8%. In the packed bed case, large temperature gradients inside the reactors are obtained and the CO2 and steam is produced at a lower (time-)average temperature. In addition, thanks to the lower average reaction temperature during fuel oxidation, the selectivity of the reduction reactions with nickel is not an issue. On the other hand, in this case a significant amount of steam has to be added or recycled to avoid carbon deposition, leading to an LHV efficiency of 41.1%. If a carrier is selected with a low kinetic activity for the Boudouard reaction, the efficiency can be increased by 1.1% point up to 42.2% of LHV. Other differences between the two systems are related to the number of vessels needed and the volume of the solids inventory, which is expected to be lower in the circulating fluidized bed system. An initial investment cost estimation demonstrates that the oxygen carrier costs are important, so that a low cycle time and a cheap oxygen carrier is preferred.The process efficiency for both reactor configurations is at the same level, 41–42% of LHV. Therefore, it can be concluded that the reactor selection will not be made based on the process efficiency, but on the availability, operability and cost of high temperature and high pressure reactor systems, that are still under development and both present pros and cons.

Integrated AHP-BPNN Model for Wind Farm Investment Evaluation

The construction of wind farms grows quickly in China. It is necessary for stakeholders to estimate investment costs and to make good decisions about a wind power project by making a budget for the investment. This paper proposed an evaluation method by integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with back-propagation neural network (BPNN) to evaluate wind farm investment. In the AHP-BPNN model, the AHP method is used to determine the factors of wind farm investment. The factors with high importance are reserved while those with low importance are eliminated, which can decrease the number of inputs of the BPNN. The experiment results show that the integrated model is feasible and effective.

Combining AHP and TOPSIS Methods to Evaluate Investment for Wind Farm Construction

Wind is one of the most promising sources of alternative energy. The construction of wind farms grows quickly in China. It is necessary for stakeholders to estimate investment costs and make good decisions on a wind power project by making a budget for the investment. However, the identification of rational investment practices is technically challenging because of the lack of scientific tools to evaluate optimal decisions. A multi-criteria evaluation method was proposed to select rational investment strategy for wind farm construction. The method is based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) together with a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). A decision problem hierarchy with three layers were investigated. The top layer is an objective layer for evaluating the investment rationality. The intermediate layer includes three evaluation criteria, that is, configuration of wind turbine generator systems, physical environment and social environment. Some relative and important indicators for each criterion are in the low layer. The evaluation results illustrate that the proposed method is practical and helpful to indentify the investment rationality for wind farms.

Robust transmission system expansion considering planning uncertainties

This study presents a novel approach for transmission expansion planning (TEP) addressing the inherent uncertainties associated with the estimated investment costs of candidate transmission lines and the forecasted electricity demands during long-term planning horizon. The proposed TEP approach employs a renovated mixed integer linear programming formulation holding the optimality and low computation burden of linear modelling techniques. The above mentioned uncertainties are encountered through robust optimisation methodology enabling the system's planner to assess different levels of uncertainty and conservation throughout planning horizon. The proposed robust TEP procedure is successfully applied to Garver 6-bus, IEEE 30-bus and IEEE 118-bus test systems. Simulation results demonstrate that the uncertainty level of investment costs and electricity demands escalates the total expansion costs based on the scale of power system.

Performance of molten salt solar power towers in Chile

Chile is facing important challenges to develop its energy sector. Estimations demonstrate that in its electricity consumption Chile will grow at an annual rate of 4.6% until 2030, despite ongoing efficiency improvements. To satisfy this demand in a sustainable way, the national energy policy promotes the integration of novel and clean power generation into the national power mix, with special emphasis on concentrated solar power (CSP). The present paper assesses the development of solar-based electricity generation in Chile by CSP, achieved by a Solar Power Tower plant (SPT) using molten salt as heat carrier and store. Such SPTs can be installed at different locations in Chile, and connected to the main national grid. Results show that each SPT plant can generate around 76 GWhel of net electricity, when considering solar irradiation as the sole energy source and at a 16% overall efficiency of the SPT process. For operation in a continuous mode, a hybrid configuration with integrated gas backup system increases the generating potential of each SPT to 135 GWhel. A preliminary Levelized Energy Cost (LEC) calculation provides LEC values between 0.15 and 0.18 $/kWh, as function of the overall process efficiency and estimated investment cost. Chile's solar irradiation favors the implementation of SPT plants.

A sustainable energy policy for Slovenia: Considering the potential of renewables and investment costs

In this paper, Slovenia's current energy policy is analyzed, the potential of renewable energy sources (RES) is evaluated and examined, and new options for the development of an alternative energy policy and the transition of the Slovenian energy industry into a sustainable energy industry are proposed and cross compared. On the basis of current and future electricity consumption, the evaluated RES potentials, and calculated investment prices, options for alternative investment projects and the alternative development of a more sustainable energy policy in Slovenia are identified. These possibilities and the current energy policy are analyzed and cross-compared from the economic and environmental viewpoint, with special emphasis on investment costs. At the end of the paper, the implementation costs of the proposed alternative energy policy investments are evaluated, calculated, and cross-compared, and the advantages and disadvantages of the alternative energy policy are evaluated. The proposed alternatives have significant benefits in comparison to the existing energy strategy, which focuses on a new lignite thermal power plant. Reconstruction of the existing thermal power plant in Šoštanj is a considerably cheaper alternative and a sound transitory solution for Slovenia. Investment in a multiple fuel power plant is also a cheaper and more efficient alternative, which, in addition, enables the usage of local biomass. Another considerably cheaper and more efficient alternative with lower emissions is a gas-steam power plant. The most promising alternative is found to be electricity production from local RES, resulting in a significant reduction of energy related emissions and domestic sources usage. The estimated investment costs for the last alternative are comparable to the costs for the implementation of Slovenia's current energy policy.

A low-carbon society: global visions, pathways, and challenges

The feasibility of two low-carbon society (LCS) scenarios, one with and one without nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (CCS), is evaluated using the AIM/Enduse[Global] model. Both scenarios suggest that achieving a 50% emissions reduction target (relative to 1990 levels) by 2050 is technically feasible if locally suited technologies are introduced and the relevant policies, including necessary financial transfers, are appropriately implemented. In the scenario that includes nuclear and CCS options, it will be vital to consider the risks and acceptance of these technologies. In the scenario without these technologies, the challenge will be how to reduce energy service demand. In both scenarios, the estimated investment costs will be higher in non-Annex I countries than in Annex I countries. Finally, the enhancement of capacity building to support the deployment of locally suited technologies will be central to achieving an LCS. Policy relevance Policies to reduce GHG emissions up to 2050 are critical if the long-term target of stabilizing the climate is to be achieved. From a policy perspective, the cost and social acceptability of the policy used to reduce emissions are two of the key factors in determining the optimal pathways to achieve this. However, the nuclear accident at Fukushima highlighted the risk of depending on large-scale technologies for the provision of energy and has led to a backlash against the use of nuclear technology. It is found that if nuclear and CCS are used it will be technically feasible to halve GHG emissions by 2050, although very costly. However, although the cost of halving emissions will be about the same if neither nuclear nor CCS is used, a 50% reduction in emissions reduction will not be achievable unless the demand for energy service is substantially reduced.

Industrial excess heat deliveries to Swedish district heating networks: Drop it like it's hot

Using industrial excess heat in District Heating (DH) networks reduces the need for primary energy and is considered efficient resource use. The conditions of Swedish DH markets are under political discussion in the Third Party Access (TPA) proposal, which would facilitate the delivery of firms' industrial excess heat to DH networks. This paper estimates and discusses the untapped potential for excess heat deliveries to DH networks and considers whether the realization of this potential would be affected by altered DH market conditions. The results identify untapped potential for industrial excess heat deliveries, and calculations based on estimated investment costs and revenues indicate that realizing the TPA proposal could enable profitable excess heat investments.

Cost to produce switchgrass and cost to produce ethanol from switchgrass for several levels of biorefinery investment cost and biomass to ethanol conversion rates

The U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 mandates the use, if produced, of 6.06 × 1010 L of advanced biofuels by 2022. The objective of this study is to determine the ethanol price necessary for a biorefinery to breakeven when using switchgrass as the single feedstock to produce ethanol. A holistic model that encompasses acquisition of land use services, feedstock production, harvest, harvest machine investment, feedstock logistics (storage, transportation), biorefinery location and size, and biorefinery investment is constructed and used to determine breakeven ethanol price. The model was solved for each of three biomass to ethanol conversion rates (250, 334, and 417 L of ethanol Mg−1 of biomass) and each of three biorefinery investment cost estimates ($2, $4, and $6 × 108 for a biorefinery with annual capacity of 379 × 106 L). Breakeven ethanol prices ranged from $0.44 L−1 with a conversion rate of 417 L of ethanol Mg−1 and an investment cost of $2 × 108, to $0.72 L−1 with a conversion rate of 250 L Mg−1 and an investment cost of $6 × 108. Improving the efficiency of conversion from 250 to 334 L Mg−1 decreases the estimated breakeven cost by $0. 07 L−1. Improved conversion efficiency results in a reduction of the total quantity of feedstock required and in the cost to deliver feedstock. Most of the cost reduction follows from reductions in land required (rent), and biomass harvest, storage, and transportation costs.

Second generation BtL type biofuels – a production cost analysis

The objective of this paper is to address the issue of the production cost of second generation biofuels via the thermo-chemical route. The last decade has seen a large number of technical–economic studies of second generation biofuels. As there is a large variation in the announced production costs of second generation biofuels in the literature, this paper clarifies some of the reasons for these variations and helps obtain a clearer picture. This paper presents simulations for two pathways and comparative production pathways previously published in the literature in the years between 2000 and 2011. It also includes a critical comparison and analysis of previously published studies. This paper does not include studies where the production is boosted with a hydrogen injection to improve the carbon yield. The only optimisation included is the recycle of tail gas. It is shown that the fuel can be produced on a large scale at prices of around 1.0–1.4 € per l. Large uncertainties remain however with regard to the precision of the economic predictions, the technology choices, the investment cost estimation and even the financial models to calculate the production costs. The benefit of a tail gas recycle is also examined; its benefit largely depends on the selling price of the produced electricity.

Estimates of incremental investment for and cost of mitigation measures in developing countries

Keeping the global temperature increase below 2°C will require concerted mitigation action by both developed and developing countries. In the UN Framework Convention, the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accord, developed countries have an obligation to provide finance for mitigation measures in developing countries. Estimates of incremental investment and incremental costs for mitigation action in developing countries are reviewed. These estimates cover developing countries as a group, individual countries and specific sectors. Many mitigation measures are more capital-intensive but have lower operating costs than the technologies they replace, so the incremental investment exceeds the incremental cost. There is no agreed basis for determining how much international financial support should be provided for mitigation measures in developing countries. Although the amount of international funding needed cannot be determined from the available analyses, it is likely to lie between the estimates of incremental cost and the incremental investment. The few estimates of incremental mitigation costs available suggest that these costs will rise substantially over the next two decades and exceed US$100 billion by 2030. The promises to increase international climate funding significantly over the next decade are encouraging, but it is not yet possible to determine whether the promised funding will be sufficient.

Exergoeconomic Analysis of an Advanced Zero Emission Plant

In this paper, an advanced zero emission plant using oxy-fuel combustion is presented and compared with a reference plant (a) without CO2 capture and (b) with CO2 capture via chemical absorption. A variation of the oxy-fuel plant with a lower CO2 capture percentage (85%) is also presented, in order to (1) evaluate the influence of CO2 capture on the overall performance and cost of the plant and (2) enable comparison at the plant-level with the conventional method for CO2 capture: chemical absorption with monoethanolamine. Selected results of an advanced exergetic analysis are also briefly presented to provide an overview of further development of evaluation methodologies, as well as deeper insight into power plant design. When compared with the reference case, the oxy-fuel plants with 100% and 85% CO2 captures suffer only a relatively small decrease in efficiency, essentially due to their more efficient combustion processes that make up for the additional thermodynamic inefficiencies and energy requirements. Investment cost estimates show that the membrane used for the oxygen production in the oxy-fuel plants is the most expensive component. If less expensive materials can be used for the mixed conducting membrane reactor used in the plants, the overall plant expenditures can be significantly reduced. Using the results of the exergoeconomic analysis, the components with the higher influence on the overall plant are revealed and possible changes to improve the plants are suggested. Design modifications that can lead to further decreases in the costs of electricity and CO2 capture, are discussed in detail. Overall, the calculated cost of electricity and the cost of avoided CO2 from the oxy-fuel plants are calculated to be competitive with those of chemical absorption.

원가지수를 이용한 고속철도 설비의 개략적 투자비 추정기법

Most of Orders of Magnitude estimate are based on historical data. This data is converted to the current price using by the cost index method mainly. This method, however, is rarely utilized or only for one-time use due to the lack of data and the complex escalation calculation method. This paper present a typical process on the conceptual investment cost estimation using by Cost Indexes based on the actual case for the Train Control facility of High-speed rail project. The result is expected to serve as both an easy way for Order of Magnitude estimate and a standard guideline for computerized modeling.