Estimated Annual Percentage Change Research Articles

Forecasting the Worldwide Impact of Stroke for individuals aged 45 and above.

We aimed to assess the global impact of stroke in people aged 45 years and older between 1990 and 2030, focusing on morbidity, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Generalized additive models (GAM) were used to project disease burden from 2020 to 2030. Additionally, the association between sociodemographic index (SDI) and stroke burden was investigated, and regional differences were assessed by Mann U test-Whitney. The overall age-standardized stroke incidence rate (ASIR) among adults aged 45 years and older is projected to increase from 2020 to 2030, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 1.29. Conversely, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) in EAPC is expected to decrease by -1.48, and the age-standardized DALY in EAPC is expected to decrease by -1.66. By 2030, men are expected to have higher ASIR (181.81) and ASDR (87.31) than women (ASIR: 151.85, ASDR: 65.20). Regional differences are large. East Asia is expected to have the highest ASIR in 2030 (265.55). Age estimates show that older age groups, particularly those aged 75 to 79, are at higher risk of stroke. In addition, there is a significant inverse relationship between SDI and stroke severity, with areas with higher SDI tending to have lower morbidity, mortality, and DALYs. From 1990 to 2030, ASIR is expected to upgrade, especially in East Asia and regions with lower SDI. Men will bear a greater burden than women.

Estimates and trends in the global burden of glaucoma influenced by metabolic risk factors from Global Burden of Disease Study between 1990 to 2019.

Glaucoma is an irreversible eye disease that causes blindness, which not only causes visual impairment and economic burden to patients, but also increases the social burden. This study aimed to estimate the global burden of glaucoma due to metabolic risk over the past 30 years. The number and rate of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) for metabolic risk factors-induced glaucoma were extracted. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for ASRs were calculated using a generalized linear model with a Gaussian distribution to quantify the temporal trends in the global burden of metabolic risk factor-attributed glaucoma. The strength and direction of the association between the sociodemographic index (SDI) and the DALY rate were measured using Spearman's rank-order correlation. Approximately 0.07% of the global DALYs of glaucoma in 1990 were associated with metabolic risk factors, which increased to 0.1% in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the global DALY cases of glaucoma caused by metabolic risk factors and the global burden of DALYs increased, whereas the DALY rate decreased with a higher SDI regional grade. The ASR of glaucoma disability loss years with a metabolic high risk increased with age, reaching the highest in the >85-year-old age group. The burden of glaucoma caused by metabolic risk factors has increased over the past three decades, especially in regions with a low SDI and in old-age groups.

Global trends in ischemic stroke burden attributable to high BMI.

We aimed to assess the worldwide burden of ischemic stroke (IS) associated with high body mass index (BMI) using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. This study examined the impact of high BMI on IS-related age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) is estimated annual percentage change. Trends were assessed using EAPCs. Over the past 3 decades, there has been a declining trend in the global burden of IS associated with high BMI, especially in Western Europe (EAPC = -3.09 for DALYs) and high-income Asia Pacific (EAPC = -4.6 for ASDR). However, certain developing regions, notably Southeast Asia, have experienced significant increases in ASDR (EAPC = 3.7) and age-standardized DALY rates (EAPC = 3.64). The most substantial increase in burden was observed in Southeast Asia for both males (EAPC = 3.85) and females (EAPC = 3.53). Importantly, the burden was most pronounced in regions with low to middle sociodemographic index. The rising disease burden linked to high BMI is largely due to insufficient medical infrastructure and ineffective public health policies in the region. Urgent action is needed from decision-makers to improve these areas and implement effective interventions. This study reveals a consistent global decline in IS related to high BMI, with a more significant burden observed in males under the age of 65, particularly in Southeast Asia, where increases in IS associated with high BMI are notable. Public health officials and global policymakers need timely and reliable quantitative data. This information is essential for implementing effective behavioral interventions, such as monitoring diet and physical activity, to address identified risk factors and reduce the burden of high BMI.

Global, regional, and national burden of ischemic stroke attributable to active smoking, 1990-2021.

Ischemic stroke is a major global health issue, with active smoking identified as a key modifiable risk factor. This study examines the burden of ischemic stroke due to active smoking from 1990 to 2021, across different sociodemographic contexts. Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were used to extract information on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to active smoking-related ischemic stroke. Countries and regions were categorized by the sociodemographic index (SDI) into five levels. Statistical analyses were conducted using R Studio, including the calculation of estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and joinpoint regression models. In 2021, there were 342674 deaths globally due to ischemic stroke caused by active smoking, with an age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 4.06 and a population-attributable fraction (PAF) of 9.54%. The number of deaths increased by 35.59% from 1990 to 2021, with males aged ≥70 years experiencing the largest increase. The global age-standardized DALY rate in 2021 was 98.29, with an overall increase in DALYs by 33.55% from 1990. Regional analysis revealed significant disparities, with the middle SDI region reporting the highest number of deaths and DALYs, while the high SDI region reported the lowest. Geographically, East Asia had the highest burden in 2021. Nationally, China had the highest number of deaths and DALYs due to smoking-related ischemic stroke. This study highlights the significant global burden of ischemic stroke attributable to active smoking and the critical need for targeted smoking cessation programs and stroke prevention strategies. Despite overall declines in ASMR and age-standardized DALY rates, the burden varies significantly across different regions and sociodemographic groups. Effective public health interventions, particularly in low- to middle-SDI regions, are essential to mitigate the impact of smoking-related ischemic stroke and improve global health outcomes.

Growing burden of inflammatory bowel disease in China: Findings from the Global Burden of Diseases 2021 and predictions to 2035.

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) imposes a significant economic and social burden in China. We aim to assess the epidemiological trends of IBD in China, and to predict the burden in the near future. The incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) of IBD from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from Global Burden of Disease 2021. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), average annual percent change, total percent change, and age-period-cohort model were used to access trends. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to predict the risk of incidence and mortality. In 2021, IBD affected 168,077 people in China, with 24,941 new cases and 5640deaths. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence and death was 1.4 and 0.3, respectively. The incidence and prevalence in China were lower than the global and high socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, but the ASR of incidence and prevalence (EAPC: 2.93 and 2.54, respectively) had rapidly increased from 1990 to 2021. The ASR of death and DALYs had significantly decreased (EAPC: -3.05 and -2.93, respectively). Middle-aged and elderly populations faced a severe burden of incidence and prevalence, while the elderly population faced a severe mortality burden. It is projected that by 2035, the ASR of incidence will continue to rise, whereas the death rate will continue to decline. The burden of IBD in China is serious and increasingly severe. Establishing a comprehensive disease management system in China will help better control the medical burden of IBD.

Global burden of zoonotic infectious diseases of poverty, 1990–2021

BackgroundThe zoonotic infectious diseases of poverty (zIDPs) are a group of diseases contributing to global poverty, with significant impacts on a substantial population. This study aims to describe the global, regional, and national burden of zIDPs—schistosomiasis, cystic echinococcosis, cysticercosis, and food-borne trematodiases (FBTs)—to support policy making and resource allocation for their control and elimination.MethodsData of zIDPs from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 were retrieved from 1990 to 2021. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate were described and the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify their burden and temporal trends. Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between age-standardized rates and Socio-demographic Index (SDI).ResultsIn 2021, these zIDPs exhibited a certain level of ASPRs and age-standardized DALY rates, while maintaining relatively low ASMRs. Noticeably, schistosomiasis presented the highest ASPR of 1914.299 (95% UI: 1378.920, 2510.853 per 100,000 population) and an age-standardized DALY rate of 21.895 (95% UI: 12.937, 37.278 per 100,000 population) among the zIDPs. The tapestry of burden—woven predominantly through low and lower-middle SDI regions—stretched across Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia. From 1990 to 2021, a kaleidoscopic shift was observed globally as ASPRs, ASMRs, and age-standardized DALY rates declined significantly, as reflected by the EAPC values. Negative correlations were observed between the ASPRs, ASMRs, age-standardized DALY rates of schistosomiasis (r value = − 0.610, − 0.622 and − 0.610), cystic echinococcosis (− 0.676 of ASMR, − 0.550 of age-standardized DALYs), cysticercosis (− 0.420, − 0.797 and − 0.591) and the SDI. In contrast, a slight positive correlation was noted between the ASPR, age-standardized DALY rates of FBTs and SDI with r value of 0.221 and 0.213, respectively.ConclusionThe burden of zIDPs declined across almost all endemic regions from 1990 to 2021, yet still predominated in low and low-middle SDI regions. Substantial challenges exist to achieve the goal of control and elimination of zIDPs, and integrated approaches based on One Health need to be strengthened to improve health outcomes.Graphical

Total burden of hepatitis B and C attributed to injecting drug use in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021: Analyses based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

This study assesses the global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) related to injecting drug use (IDU) from 1990 to 2021. Data from the global burden of disease study 2021 were analyzed to quantify deaths, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR) due to HBV and HCV from IDU across 204 countries. Trends was evaluated using estimated annual percentage change. Analyzing the association between ASDR and SDI using a loess regression model. From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of deaths and DALYs due to HBV and HCV attributed to IDU showed an increasing trend, especially among males, whose mortality rates were significantly higher than females. In 2021, global deaths due to HBV from IDU were 13,050.8, with an ASMR of 0.15 per 100,000 and an ASDR of 5.3, both showing an increasing trend with estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of 1.09 and 0.96, respectively. HCV deaths reached 231,764.4, with an ASMR of 2.68 (EAPC: 0.38) and a relatively stable ASDR trend (EAPC: 0.01). Although raw death rates for HCV have increased, the ASMR and ASDR have remained stable or slightly declined, highlighting different trends across sexes and regions. India had the highest national deaths, while the highest ASDRs were in the Republic of Moldova (HBV) and Mongolia (HCV). South Asia recorded the highest regional deaths for both HBV and HCV. Positive correlations between ASDRs for HBV and HCV with SDI were observed. The burden of HBV and HCV due to IDU has increased from 1990 to 2021, especially among males, with significant regional and national disparities. Targeted drug prohibition interventions and policies are needed.

Global trends and projections of occupational trichloroethylene (TCE) exposure-associated kidney cancer: Insights of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 from 1990 to 2021 and prediction to 2050

BackgroundExposure to trichloroethylene (TCE) in occupations is associated with an increased risk of kidney cancer (KC). However, there is a lack of comprehensive study on the global burden of occupational exposure to TCE-related KC. MethodsEpidemiological data on occupational TCE exposure-associated KC from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, including death counts and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Global burden of this disease was stratified by genders, age, socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles, GBD subcontinental regions, and countries. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to illustrate trends over the last 32 years, and forecasts were conducted to predict the disease burden until 2050. ResultsIn 2021, the global age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of occupational TCE exposure-related KC was 0.0009 (95 %UI: 0.0002–0.0016) per 100,000 persons, and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDAR) was 0.0284 (95 %UI: 0.0062–0.0522) per 100,000 individuals. The disease showed significant heterogeneity by sex and age, with males bearing a notably higher burden, and the burden being concentrated in the 50–79 year-old group. Major burdens were focused in middle to high-middle SDI regions, especially in Southern Latin America (Uruguay, Argentina, and Chile). Over 32 years, the burden of occupational TCE exposure-associated KC has gradually increased, with projections indicating continued growth to 2050, particularly among males and individuals aged 50–79. Regions like high-middle SDI areas, North America, High-income North America, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, saw the most significant increases. Correlation analyses indicated a positive association between ASDR and ASDAR with SDI, while EAPC showed a notable negative correlation with SDI. Decomposition analyses reveals three global population determinants that positively contributed to the increase in deaths, but negatively impacted DALYs. ConclusionThis study highlights a significant rising trend of occupational TCE exposure-associated KC from 1990 to 2021 and projected to 2050, with an emphasis on the disease burden in men, elderly population, and middle to high-middle SDI regions, underscoring the impact of occupational TCE exposure on KC.

Autism Diagnosis Among US Children and Adults, 2011-2022

An improved understanding of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) prevalence over time and across the lifespan can inform health care service delivery for the growing population of autistic children and adults. To describe trends in the prevalence of ASD diagnoses using electronic records data from a large network of health systems in the US. This cross-sectional study examined annual diagnosis rates in health records of patients in US health systems from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2022. Eligible individuals were included in the study sample for a given calendar year if they were enrolled in a participating health system for at least 10 months out of the year. Data were extracted from 12 sites participating in the Mental Health Research Network, a consortium of research centers embedded within large, diverse health care systems. Diagnoses of ASD were ascertained using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) revision codes. Annual diagnosis rates were calculated as the number of unique members diagnosed, divided by the total members enrolled. A total of 12 264 003 members were enrolled in 2022 (2 359 359 children aged 0 to 17 years [19.2%]; 6 400 222 female [52.2%]; 93 002 American Indian or Alaska Native [0.8%], 1 711 950 Asian [14.0%], 952 287 Black or African American [7.8%], 2 971 355 Hispanic [24.2%], 166 144 Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander [1.4%], and 6 462 298 White [52.7%]). The ASD diagnosis rate was greatest among 5-to-8-year-olds throughout the study period and increased by 175% among the full sample, from 2.3 per 1000 in 2011 to 6.3 per 1000 in 2022. The greatest relative increase in diagnosis rate from 2011 to 2022 occurred among 26-to-34-year-olds (450%) and increases were greater for female vs male individuals among children (305% [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), 13.62 percentage points; 95% CI, 12.49-14.75 percentage points] vs 185% [EAPC, 9.63 percentage points; 95% CI, 8.54-10.72 percentage points], respectively) and adults (315% [EAPC, 13.73 percentage points; 95% CI, 12.61-14.86 percentage points] vs 215% [EAPC, 10.33 percentage points; 95% CI, 9.24-11.43 percentage points]). Relative increases were greater in racial and ethnic minority groups compared with White individuals among children, but not adults. In this cross-sectional study of children and adults in the US, ASD diagnosis rates increased substantially between 2011 and 2022, particularly among young adults, female children and adults, and children from some racial or ethnic minority groups. Diagnosis prevalence trends generated using health system data can inform the allocation of resources to meet the service needs of this growing, medically complex population.

Global burden of drug use disorders by region and country, 1990-2021.

This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database to systematically assess the magnitude of drug use disorders (DUD) burden between 1990 and 2021. This study used GBD data to analyze the trends in ASIR, DALYs and other DUD indicators from 1990 to 2021, and compared them among different regions and countries. The Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) and its 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were calculated to assess the temporal and geographical disparities. ASIR and DALYs were used to evaluate the burden of DUDs, and socio-demographic index (SDI) was used to measure the socio-economic development level of each country. The global ASIR of DUDs showed a slight downward trend (EAPC = -0.26). The age-standardized DALY rate (per 100,000) significantly declined from 1990 to 2021 (EAPC = -1.44). Among the regions, the high SDI region exhibited the most substantial increase in ASIR (EAPC = 0.65). On a regional level, the high-income North America region had the highest EAPC for both age-standardized DALYs and ASIR (EAPC = 4.82, 1.02, respectively). Nationally, the United States of America reported the largest increase in age-standardized DALY rates and EAPC for ASIR (EAPC of 4.88, 1.05, respectively), while South Africa had the most significant decrease in EAPC (EAPC of -3.62, -1.52, respectively). In 2021, the highest ASIR was observed in high-income North America at 520.07; Central Asia had the highest age-standardized DALY rate. Globally, age-standardized DALYs and ASIR for DUDs were generally higher in men than in women, and the burden of DUDs decreased with age. The global burden of DUDs has shown complex and changing trends over the last decades, with large differences in burden between regions and countries. This highlights the need for targeted public health policies and interventions in High income North America region and Eastern Europe.

Global variations in coronary revascularisation and acute myocardial infarction mortality between 2006-2020: a longitudinal, population-level analysis of 16 high-income nations from the OECD database

Abstract Background Revascularisation options for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) includes either, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass graft (CABG). Whilst PCI remains the preferred choice in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI)(1), several landmark trials have questioned its universal superiority (2,3), thus prompting re-evaluation of guidelines. A wide-scale contemporary overview of revascularisation trends is lacking. Purpose To examine the evolving pattern in PCI and CABG rates, alongside mortality from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) across a group of 16 high-income countries between 2006 and 2020. Methods Standardized PCI and CABG procedure rates alongside AMI age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) were obtained from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) database. Data from 2006-2020 was extracted for; Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom (UK). Together, these countries are commonly known as the European Union (EU) 15+ and represent a cluster of high-income nations with comparable levels of health expenditure. Procedural trends including the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were evaluated using Joinpoint analysis whilst Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS) models was used to analysis trends in AMI mortality. Results Over 15 years, 14.0 million PCI and 2.8 million CABG procedures were recorded in total. PCI rates varied amongst nations (Figure 1), however showed an overall increase in 11 countries, led by Finland (+36.0%). The steepest increase was observed in France between 2012-2018 (EAPC 5.4, 95% CI: 4.8 – 6.1). The greatest overall decrease in PCI was observed in Luxemburg (-33.5%). The fastest decrease was seen during 2018-2020 in the UK (EAPC -7.2, 95% CI: -9.7 – -4.6). CABG rates declined overall in 15 countries (Figure 1), with Luxembourg (-71.3%), experiencing the largest fall and showing the steepest decline between 2014-2018 (EAPC -20.7, 95% CI: -28.3 – -12.3). Ireland was the only country to show an increase in CABG rate (+16.3%). Throughout the study period, the PCI-to-CABG ratio increased (Figure 2A), whilst AMI mortality decreased consistently across all countries (Figure 2B). Conclusion Despite evidence supporting CABG over PCI in specific scenarios, CABG rates have declined, and PCI rates have increased. This trend may be influenced by several factors including patient preference for less invasive procedures and advancements in interventional techniques. The varied use of PCI among these nations, alongside a sustained decline in AMI mortality rates, may be expected given the importance of optimal medical therapy in the management of IHD. The results further highlight the significance of factors beyond revascularisation in driving improved outcomes.PCI and CABG rates between 2006 and 2020PCI to CABG ratio and AMI mortality rate

Gender disparities and infective endocarditis burden in the United States and European Union: a comparative analysis

Abstract Background Despite improvement in diagnostics and treatment options, infective endocarditis (IE) remains a significant burden for healthcare systems. While high-income countries have improved diagnosis of IE, the progress in interventional cardiology with a rise in cardiac devices associated infections, and people migrations offset some of these gains. Purpose To the best of our knowledge, there is a lack of comparative data between high-income countries, including the United States (US) and European Union (EU). Methods We collected the age-standardized rates of incidence (ASIR), deaths (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life years (ASDALYs) in the US and EU from 1993 to 2019 with the Global Health Data Exchange query tool. The Bayesian geospatial regression analysis and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to quantify the trends in age-standardized rates (ASR) were used. The data were stratified based on the gender, year, and location. Results Males in the US had an overall ASIR of 17.2/100k with an increasing trend between 1993 and 2019, and an annual average rate of change of 0.8 % (EAPC of 0.8%). A similar trend and higher rates were noted in males in the EU, with ASIR of 20.9/100k and EAPC of 2.0%. For the same period, females in the US had lower ASIR than females in the EU (11.9/100k vs. 13.6/100k) , and lower annual percent change (1% vs. 1.3%). In the US, ASDR was higher in males than females (1.6/100k vs. 1.28/100k), but females had higher annual percentage change (EAPC of 2.7% in males and 3.3% in females). Compared to US, males and females in the EU had lower ASDR in 2019 (1.2/100k in males, and 1.0/100k in females) with lower annual percentage changes of 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively. The ASDALY was significantly higher in the US, for both males (34.6/100k) and females (25.5/100k), with a greater increase in an annual average rate of change of 2.7% in females than in males (2.2%). EU males had ASDALY of 24.9/100k with an EAPC of 1.8%, while females had 16.7/100K with an annual average increase of 1.2%. Figure 1, Table 1 Conclusion ASIR of IE appears to be higher in the EU for both males and females. Conversely, ASDR and ASDALY manifest higher rates in the US across both genders, with females notably demonstrating a higher annual percentage increase for these metrics. Further studies are needed to assess the nature of these differences and to inform health policies.The age-standardized rates in US and EUThe differences in the EAPC

Global, regional, and national burden of brain and central nervous system cancers for males from 1990 to 2021 and its predicted level in the next 25 years.

A study of the global burden of cerebral and central nervous system (CNS) cancers from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) indicates that these cancers significantly contribute to morbidity and mortality internationally. To fully understand the global impact of CNS cancer, expanded research efforts are essential. We analyzed the temporal trend of the disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and made projections for the expected burden from 2020 through 2044. We tapped into GBD 2021 Study data to evaluate CNS cancer incidence and trends among males. Prevalence was assessed with DisMod-MR, trends via cluster analysis, and Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) calculated via linear regression. Forecasts for 2022-2044 used APC and BAPC models, with a P-value < 0.05 considered significant. Analyses relied on R software 4.0.2. In 2021, males experienced between 148,118 and 232,469 new brain and CNS cancer cases, indicating increased global burden from 1990 to 2021. An observed link between the prevalence's EAPCs and Human Development Indices (HDIs) suggests higher incidence in more developed regions. Projections using the APC model suggest rising numbers of cases and losses in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 2020 to 2044, while Age-Standardized Rates (ASRs) are expected to decrease overall. In summary, a higher Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) correlates with better outcomes for CNS cancer due to early medical interventions in regions with strong healthcare systems. This demonstrates the need for equitable healthcare policies that focus on improving diagnostic capabilities and professional training to enhance survival rates universally.

The burden, trends, and projections of low back pain attributable to high body mass index globally: an analysis of the global burden of disease study from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050.

To systematically evaluate the global burden and trends of low back pain(LBP) associated with high Body Mass Index (BMI) and project future trends up to 2050 using Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model, providing scientific evidence for prioritizing global preventive actions. Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, this research analyzes the disease burden of low back pain linked to high BMI globally, with Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) as the primary metric. We examined trends by gender, age, and exposure rate using Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) and projected future trends with the BAPC model. In 2021, high BMI-related low back pain accounted for 8,363,759 DALYs, with an age-standardized rate of 97.66 per 100,000 population and an EAPC of 1.14. The DALYs rate varied significantly by country, with the United States, Australia, and Eastern Europe experiencing the highest rates, all exceeding 225 per 100,000 population. The burden has increased globally, with notable rises in China, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Africa, where EAPCs surpassed 2.5. Regions with medium and high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) showed the most substantial increases, with the DALY rate in high SDI areas rising from 118.84 to 161.80 per 100,000, and in medium SDI areas from 41.92 to 79.10 per 100,000. Throughout the period from 1990 to 2021, females consistently experienced a higher burden of high BMI-related low back pain than males, with their DALY rate increasing from 92.01 to 126.29 per 100,000. The impact of high BMI on low back pain intensified with age, peaking in the 70-74 age group at 294.13 per 100,000, and then declining to 196.43 per 100,000 in those aged 95 and above. The BAPC model projects that by 2050, the number of DALYs will reach 15,558,278, an increase of 7,806,121 from 2021. From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of low back pain attributable to high BMI has intensified, particularly affecting females, younger elderly, and developed regions. With increasing global aging and obesity rates, the burden is expected to continue rising rapidly without sustained and effective targeted interventions.

Global burden of ischemic stroke attributable to high body mass index in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2021

BackgroundA high body mass index (hBMI) is one of the major risk factors for ischemic stroke (IS), although independent estimates of the global burden and trend of IS attributable to hBMI are unclear.MethodsStudy data were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study and analysed by age, sex, year, and geographical location. The sociodemographic index (SDI) and the human development index (HDI) were used as indicators of national socioeconomic status. Geographic distributions and trends were assessed by calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Associations between the age-standardized death rate (ASMR) or disability-adjusted life year rate (DALY) and socioeconomic status were analysed.ResultsDeaths and DALYs increased worldwide from 1990–2021, with increases of 95.74% for the former and 133.00% for the latter; the ASMR and ASDR decreased, with an ASMR and ASDR-related EAPCs of -1.10 (95% CI: -1.24–-0.96) and 0.04 (95% CI:-0.47–0.55), respectively; women had greater numbers of deaths and DALYs, and the majority of deaths and DALYs were shared by those aged ≥ 70. The highest burden rates were shared by Eastern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia. The ASMR-related EAPCs were associated with the ASMR in 1990 (R = -0.35, P < 0.001) and the SDI in 2021 in different countries (R = -0.66, P < 0.001); these patterns were similar to those of the ASDR; the HDI in 2021 was associated with the ASMR-related EAPC (R = -0.71, P < 0.001) and the ASDR-related EAPC in different countries (R = -0.71, P < 0.001).ConclusionsThe number of deaths and DALYs from ischemic stroke attributable to hBMI worldwide increased substantially from 1990–2021. Successful population-wide initiatives targeting hBMI may mitigate a wide range of burdens on this disease. Taking into account variations in the SDI burden, future prevention and control strategies must be developed and implemented according to country-specific development status.

Worldwide prevalence of chagas cardiomyopathy-an analysis from the global burden of disease dataset.

The worldwide prevalence of Chagas Cardiomyopathy (CCM) as well as the trends in the prevalence of CCM over time have not been well characterized. An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2019 was conducted to assess the burden of CCM. This study focused on determining the prevalence of CCM, along with its age-standardized prevalence rate (ASR) per 1,00,000 people, considering various patient demographics and geographical regions as defined in the GBD. Additionally, the study examined the temporal trends over this 30-year period by calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in CCM prevalence for the global population and specific subgroups. Worldwide, the GBD reported 220,166 individuals with CCM in 1990 and 2,83,236 individuals in 2019, with a decline in the ASR from 5.23 (3.34-7.47) to 3.42 (2.2-4.91) per 1,00,000 individuals during that period. In 2019, the prevalence was highest in individuals over age 70 and in males compared to females. Among available geographic classifications in 2019, Latin American regions had the highest rates (ASR of 39.49-61.15/1,00,000), while high income North American and Western European regions had the lowest rates (ASRs of 0.67 and 0.34/1,00,000, respectively). Between 1990 and 2019, the worldwide prevalence of CCM per 1,00,000 decreased (EAPC of -0.35, -0.37 to -0.32), with similar trends among most regions and subgroups. This analysis of the GBD data reveals both global and country-specific patterns in the prevalence and trends of CCM. Notably, CCM shows the highest prevalence in Latin American countries, although it's also significantly present in regions beyond Latin America. Notably, the global age-standardized rate of CCM is on the decline, suggesting improvements in healthcare strategies or lifestyle changes across the world.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Stroke, 1990-2021: A Systematic Analysis for Global Burden of Disease 2021.

This study aims to perform a comprehensive analysis of stroke burden from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of the burden, including prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year rates, for stroke across 204 countries and regions from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and performed a joinpoint regression analysis to identify the trends. We also explored the association between the stroke burden and sociodemographic index. The age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year rates for stroke were 1099.310, 141.553, 87.454, and 1886.196 per 100 000 persons in 2021, respectively. The general stroke burden trends declined in EAPC analysis (age-standardized prevalence: EAPC, -0.37; age-standardized incidence: EAPC, -0.99; age-standardized mortality: EAPC, -1.81; and disability-adjusted life year: EAPC, -1.76). However, we found an increasing burden of stroke in East Asia and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (EAPC >0). The global burdens of intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and ischemic stroke showed a similar trend. The stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and ischemic stroke burdens were heavier in men than in women, except for that of subarachnoid hemorrhage in women. Our joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the age-standardized burden rates of stroke decreased from 1990 to 2021 (average annual percent change <0), whereas an upward trend was observed between 2019 and 2021 (average annual percent change >0). The burden of stroke was inversely proportional to the sociodemographic index (P<0.05), except in the case of subarachnoid hemorrhage. The actual stroke burden showed an increasing trend for stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and ischemic stroke in 2021 (during the coronavirus pandemic). We found age-standardized rates of stroke burden declining over time, but some areas exhibited a notable increase in the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year rates.

Iron Deficiency: Global Trends and Projections from 1990 to 2050.

Iron deficiency (ID) remains the leading cause of anemia, affects a vast number of persons globally, and continues to be a significant global health burden. Comprehending the patterns of ID burden is essential for developing targeted public health policies. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study for the years 1990-2021, the XGBoost model was constructed to predict prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for the period 2022-2050, based on key demographic variables. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were applied to interpret the contributions of each variable to the model's predictions. Additionally, the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model was used to evaluate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on both prevalence and DALYs. The relationship between the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and ID's age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) as well as the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) was also analyzed to assess the influence of socioeconomic development on disease burden. The global prevalent cases of ID grew from 984.61 million in 1990 to 1270.64 million in 2021 and are projected to reach 1439.99 million by 2050. Similarly, global DALYs from ID increased from 28.41 million in 1990 to 32.32 million in 2021, with a projected rise to 36.13 million by 2050. The ASPR declined from 18,204/100,000 in 1990 to 16,433/100,000 in 2021, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -0.36% over this period. It is expected to decrease further to 15,922 by 2050, with an EAPC of -0.09% between 2021 and 2050. The ASDR was 518/100,000 in 1990 and 424/100,000 in 2021, with an EAPC of -0.68% from 1990 to 2021. It is expected to remain relatively stable at 419/100,000 by 2050, with an EAPC of -0.02% between 2021 and 2050. In 2021, the highest ASPRs were recorded in Senegal (34,421/100,000), Mali (34,233/100,000), and Pakistan (33,942/100,000). By 2050, Mali (35,070/100,000), Senegal (34,132/100,000), and Zambia (33,149/100,000) are projected to lead. For ASDR, Yemen (1405/100,000), Mozambique (1149/100,000), and Mali (1093/100,000) had the highest rates in 2021. By 2050, Yemen (1388/100,000), Mali (1181/100,000), and Mozambique (1177/100,000) are expected to remain the highest. SHAP values demonstrated that gender was the leading predictor of ID, with age and year showing negative contributions. Females aged 10 to 60 consistently showed higher prevalence and DALYs rates compared to males, with the under-5 age group having the highest rates for both. Additionally, men aged 80 and above exhibited a rapid increase in prevalence. Furthermore, the ASPR and ASDR were significantly higher in regions with a lower SDI, highlighting the greater burden of ID in less developed regions. ID remains a significant global health concern, with its burden projected to persist through 2050, particularly in lower-SDI regions. Despite declines in ASPR and ASDR, total cases and DALYs are expected to rise. SHAP analysis revealed that gender had the greatest influence on the model's predictions, while both age and year showed overall negative contributions to ID risk. Children under 5, women under 60, and elderly men aged 80+ were the most vulnerable groups. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions, such as improved nutrition, early screening, and addressing socioeconomic drivers through iron supplementation programs in low-SDI regions.

The global death and disability burden associated with a high BMI in children and adolescents, 1990-2019.

Exploring changing trends in the burden caused by overweight and obesity among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels, based on data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019. The annual number and rate of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with a high BMI among children and adolescents at global, regional, and national levels by age groups, sexes, and the sociodemographic index from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the GBD study 2019. Change percentage for number, and the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for rate were calculated to determine the temporal trends. From 1990 to 2019, global high BMI-related deaths decreased by 34% but DALYs increased by 48%. Death rates in females were higher than in males, although both showed decreasing trends. For the rate of DALYs, both sexes showed increasing trends, but since 1999, the rate in males has surpassed that in females. A high BMI had the greatest impact on children under 5 years of age, and the burden in other age groups continued to increase. Regionally, High-income Asia Pacific experienced the fastest decrease in death rate (EAPC=-9.57), and East Asia saw the fastest increase in the DALYs rate (EAPC= 3.47). Globally, as age increases, the proportion of disease burden attributed to a high BMI in females generally increases. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to improve efforts to prevent children and adolescents becoming overweight and obese.

Global burden of atrial fibrillation attributable to high body mass index from 1990 to 2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

To assess the global burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) attributable to high body mass index (BMI) from 1990 to 2021 and analyze its spatiotemporal distribution characteristics. An observational study based on GBD 2021 data. Data on AF burden due to high BMI were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to evaluate temporal trends in age-standardized rates of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over 30 years. In 2021, high BMI-related AF caused 27,000 deaths and 725,000 DALYs globally, a 376% increase since 1990. Females and the elderly (aged 70+) bore a higher burden. Upper-middle-income regions surpassed high-income regions in AF burden. Australasia had the highest age-standardized rates, while High-income Asia Pacific and South Asia had the lowest. South Asia showed rapid growth in age-standardized death rates. The global burden of high BMI-related AF varies across regions and time, threatening global health, especially for females and the elderly. Targeted strategies are needed to reduce AF and obesity.