Global, regional, and national burden of brain and central nervous system cancers for males from 1990 to 2021 and its predicted level in the next 25 years.

Abstract

A study of the global burden of cerebral and central nervous system (CNS) cancers from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) indicates that these cancers significantly contribute to morbidity and mortality internationally. To fully understand the global impact of CNS cancer, expanded research efforts are essential. We analyzed the temporal trend of the disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and made projections for the expected burden from 2020 through 2044. We tapped into GBD 2021 Study data to evaluate CNS cancer incidence and trends among males. Prevalence was assessed with DisMod-MR, trends via cluster analysis, and Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) calculated via linear regression. Forecasts for 2022-2044 used APC and BAPC models, with a P-value < 0.05 considered significant. Analyses relied on R software 4.0.2. In 2021, males experienced between 148,118 and 232,469 new brain and CNS cancer cases, indicating increased global burden from 1990 to 2021. An observed link between the prevalence's EAPCs and Human Development Indices (HDIs) suggests higher incidence in more developed regions. Projections using the APC model suggest rising numbers of cases and losses in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 2020 to 2044, while Age-Standardized Rates (ASRs) are expected to decrease overall. In summary, a higher Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) correlates with better outcomes for CNS cancer due to early medical interventions in regions with strong healthcare systems. This demonstrates the need for equitable healthcare policies that focus on improving diagnostic capabilities and professional training to enhance survival rates universally.