Estimated Annual Percentage Change Research Articles

Global, regional, and national burden of inflammatory bowel disease, 1990–2021: Insights from the global burden of disease 2021

PurposeThe prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is on the rise worldwide. We utilizes data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021 to analyze the national-level burden of IBD, trends in disease incidence, and epidemiological characteristics.MethodsDetailed information on IBD was gathered from 204 countries and territories spanning 1990 to 2021, sourced from the GBD 2021. Calculations were performed for incidence rates, mortality rates, disease-adjusted life years (DALYs), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). These trends were analyzed based on region, nationality, age, gender, and World Bank income level stratifications.ResultsThe global age-standardised incident rate (ASIR) of IBD increased from 4.22 per 100000 in 1990 to 4.45 per 100000 in 2021. However, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 0.60 per 100000 in 1990 to 0.52 per 100000 in 2021. Similarly, the age-standardised DALYs rate decreased from 21.55 per 100000 in 1990 to 18.07 per 100000 in 2021. Gender comparisons showed negligible differences in disease burden. The greatest increase in IBD-associated ASIR and ASMR occurred in World Bank upper-middle income region (EAPCs, 1.25) and World Bank high-income region (EAPCs, 1.00), respectively. Regionally, East Asia experienced the largest increase in ASIR (EAPCs, 2.89). Among 204 countries, China had the greatest increases in ASIR (EAPCs, 2.93), Netherlands had the highest ASMR in 2021 (2.21 per 100000).ConclusionsGlobal incidence rate of IBD have been increasing from 1990 to 2021, while the DALYs and mortality have been decreasing. The escalating incident rates in select Asian regions deserves further attention.

Global, regional and national trends in the burden of low bone mineral density from 1990 to 2030: A Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study

Low bone mineral density (LBMD) remains a global public health concern. To provide deeper insights, we retrieved and calibrated LBMD death and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) database. We calculated the age-standardized rate (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to delineate LBMD trends across sexes, age groups, Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions, and countries. Spearman rank order correlation analysis was used to explore the relationship between SDI and ASR. Additionally, we constructed Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models to predict future trends in LBMD up to 2030, with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) used to evaluate prediction accuracy. Our analyses revealed that global deaths related to LBMD nearly doubled, from 250,930 in 1990 to 463,010 in 2021, and are projected to rise to 473,690 by 2030. However, the ASR exhibited an opposite trend, decreasing from 17.91 per 100,000 in 1990 to 15.77 per 100,000 in 2021, and is expected to further decline to 13.64 per 100,000 by 2030. The EAPC indicated descending trends in 1990–2021 and 2022–2030. Trends in LBMD varied across different subgroups by sex, age, and location. Males are projected to continue experiencing higher death numbers than females, though the gap is narrowing. The 90 to 94 age group consistently had the highest ASR from 1990 to 2030. Lower SDI remains a critical factor contributing to the higher burden of LBMD. Spearman rank order correlation analysis showed a negative correlation between SDI and ASR. We categorized 6 distinct trends in ASR across different countries, with most expected to experience a decline by 2030. The MAPE value (0.038 < 0.1) indicated that the BAPC model produced reliable predictions even under the COVID-19 pandemic.

Examining the evolving landscape of liver cancer burden in the United States from 1990 to 2019

IntroductionLiver cancer (LC) is frequently preceded by cirrhosis and poses a significant public health challenge in the United States (US). Recent decades have seen notable shifts in the epidemiological patterns of LC, yet national data guiding the optimal allocation of resources and preventive efforts remain limited. This study aims to investigate the current trends, risk factors, and outcomes of LC in the US.MethodsThis study utilized the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset to collect data on the annual incident cases, deaths, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized death rates, and age-standardized DALY rates of primary LC and its etiologies and risk factors, between 1990 and 2019. Percentage changes in incident cases, DALYs, and deaths and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASIR and deaths rates of LC were calculated to conduct temporal analysis. Linear regression was applied for the calculation of EAPCs. Correlations of EAPC with socio-demographic index (SDI) were separately evaluated by Pearson correlation analyses.ResultsWe observed a marked increase in the ASIR of LC, increasing from 2.22 (95% CI: 2.15–2.27) per 100,000 people in 1990 to 5.23 (95% CI: 4.28–6.29) per 100,000 people in 2019, a percentage change of 135.4%. LC due to hepatitis C followed by alcohol use were the primary factors driving this increase. The ASIR and age-standardized death rates of LC showed a significant average annual increase of 3.0% (95% CI: 2.7–3.2) and 2.6% (95% CI: 2.5–2.8), respectively. There was a significant negative correlation between the SDI and the EAPC in ASIR (ρ = -0.40, p = 0.004) and age-standardized death rates (ρ = -0.46, p < 0.001). In 2019, drug and alcohol use, followed by elevated body mass index (BMI) were the primary risk factors for age-standardized DALY rates attributable to LC.ConclusionThe increased burden of LC in the US highlights the need for interventions. This is particularly important given that LC is mostly influenced by modifiable risk factors, such as drug and alcohol use, and elevated BMI. Our findings highlight the urgent need for public health interventions targeting socio-economic, lifestyle, and modifiable risk factors to mitigate the escalating burden of LC.

Disease burden of AIDS in last 30-year period and its predicted level in next 25-years based on the global burden disease 2019

BackgroundThis study examines global trends in acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, focusing on regional disparities in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across various levels of socio-demographic index (SDI). It also investigates variations in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across different age groups, and projects specific trends for the next 25 years.MethodsComprehensive data on AIDS from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories was obtained from a GBD study. This included information on AIDS incidence, mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs). Projections for AIDS incidence and mortality over the next 25 years were generated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the global incidence of HIV cases increased from 1,989,282 to 2,057,710, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 37.59 to 25.24 with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -2.38. The ASIR exhibited an upward trend in high SDI and high-middle SDI regions, a stable trend in middle SDI regions, and a downward trend in low-middle SDI and low SDI regions. In regions with higher SDI, the ASIR was higher in males than in females, while the opposite was observed in lower SDI regions. Throughout 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALY rate remained stable, with EAPCs of 0.24 and 0.08 respectively. Countries with the highest HIV burden affecting women and children under five years of age are primarily situated in lower SDI regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections indicate a significant continued decline in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of AIDS over the next 25 years, for both overall and by gender.ConclusionsThe global ASIR decreased from 1990 to 2019. Higher incidence and death rates were observed in the lower SDI region, indicating a greater susceptibility to AIDS among women and < 15 years old. This underscores the urgent need for increased resources to combat AIDS in this region, with focused attention on protecting women and < 15 years old as priority groups. The AIDS epidemic remained severe in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections for the next 25 years indicate a substantial and ongoing decline in both age-standardized incidence and mortality rates.

Inpatient palliative care in metastatic adrenocortical carcinoma: a retrospective analysis using the National Inpatient Sample database.

The use of inpatient palliative care (IPC) in advanced cancer patients represents a well-established guideline recommendation. This study examines the utilization rates and patterns of IPC among patients with metastatic adrenocortical carcinoma (mACC). Relying on the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database (2007-2019), we tabulated IPC rates in mACC patients. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) analyses as well as multivariable logistic regression models (MLRM) predicting IPC use were fitted. Of 2040 mACC patients, 238 (12%) received IPC. Overall, the rate of IPC increased from 3.7% to 19.1% between 2007 and 2019 (EAPC +9.6%, P=0.001). During the same period, in-hospital mortality remained unchanged from 12.1 to 13.8% (EAPC 0.1%; P=0.97). Younger age at admission (<60 years; MLRM OR=0.70, P=0.013), solitary metastatic site (OR=0.63; P=0.015), and non-brain metastases (OR=0.62; P=0.033) were all associated with lower IPC use. In mACC patients, IPC use has increased from a marginal 3.7% to a moderate annual value of 19.1% in the most recent study year. These rates were not driven by a concomitant increase in in-hospital mortality (12.1% to 13.8%; P=0.9). and may be interpreted as an improvement in quality of care. Despite this encouraging increase, some patient characteristics herald lower IPC use. In consequence, younger patients, those with solitary metastatic sites, and non-brain metastases should be carefully considered for IPC to decrease or completely reduce the IPC access barrier maximally.

Global, regional, and national burdens of leukemia from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease in 2019 based on the APC model.

Leukemia is the tenth most common cause of cancer death worldwide and one of the most important causes of disability. To understand the current status and changing trends of the disease burden of leukemia at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of leukemia prevention and treatment strategies. Based on open data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), R software was used to calculate estimated annual percentage changes to estimate trends in the age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate due to leukemia and its major subtypes from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, globally, the number of incidences and DALYs of leukemia were 643.6 × 103 (587.0 × 103, 699.7 × 103) and 11,657.5 × 103 (10529.1 × 103, 12700.7 × 103), respectively. The ASIR (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -0.37, 95%UI -0.46 to -0.28) and the age-standardized DALY rate (EAPC = -1.72, 95%UI -1.80 to -1.65) of leukemia showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019. The APC model analysis showed that the age effect of leukemia risk was a "U"-shaped distribution of relative risk (RR) with increasing age from 1990 to 2019, globally. The time effect was an increase in incidence rate with increasing years but a decrease in DALY rate with increasing years. The cohort effects of both incidence and DALY rates tended to increase and then decrease with the development of the birth cohort. In 1990 and 2019, smoking, high body-mass index, occupational exposure to benzene, and occupational exposure to formaldehyde were risk factors for DALY in leukemia, especially in areas with high SDI. From 1990 to 2019, the disease burden of leukemia showed a decreasing trend, but it is worth noting that its overall severity is still very high. The disease burden of leukemia varies greatly from region to region, and exclusive strategies for the prevention and treatment of leukemia should be developed according to the economic and cultural development of each region.

P028 GLOBAL, REGIONAL, AND NATIONAL BURDEN OF HYPERTENSIVE HEART DISEASE ATTRIBUTABLE TO HIGH SODIUM INTAKE FROM 1990 TO 2021

Background: High sodium intake is associated with increased blood pressure. Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) is a structural and functional alteration of the left ventricle caused by long-term high blood pressure, which is closely related to many adverse events. We aimed to assess the level and trend of the burden of HHD associated with high sodium intake based on the latest global burden of disease (GBD) study from 1990 to 2021. Methods: Data were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021. We estimated HHD-related deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), and age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDRs) attributable to high sodium intake, stratified by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), region, and country. We also calculated estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) to assess temporal trends in ASMR and ASDR for HHD attributable to high sodium intake from 1990 to 2021. Results: In 2021, the number of HHD deaths and DALYs attributable to high sodium intake was 303,967 (95% CI: 641,085 to 63,832) and 596,048 (95% CI: 1230,061 to 150,532), respectively. Deaths and DALYs showed an overall downward trend globally with an EAPC of -1.46 (95% CI: -1.68 to -1.23 and -1.77 (95% CI: -1.99 to -1.55), respectively. However, ASDR and ASMR increased in high SDI regions, with EAPC of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.48 to 1.07) and 1.12 (95% CI:0.84 to 1.4), respectively. Central Europe exhibited the highest rates of HHD deaths and DALYs. The burden of hypertensive heart disease due to high sodium intake was highest in people over 65 years in 2021 and was higher in women than in men. Conclusion: Our research findings indicate that high sodium intake leads to a significant burden of HHD, with notable gender and geographic disparities. To address this pressing global health issue, it is essential to improve HHD prevention and sodium intake management strategies, particularly for populations in high SDI regions, the elderly, and women.

The global disease burden attributable to unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing with unqualified facilities from 1990 to 2019.

Water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) are crucial determinants of human health. However, the spatio-temporal trends in the global burden of disease attributable to unsafe WaSH remain poorly understood. This study aimed to estimate the disease burden attributable to unsafe WaSH from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, providing new insights into the associated health conditions. We extracted data on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to unsafe WaSH from 1990 to 2019 from the GBD 2019. The disease burden was evaluated by region, sociodemographic index (SDI), sex, age, risk factor, and specific disease. Globally, unsafe WaSH was responsible for 1 656 887.37 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 1 198 864.94, 2 312 688.33) deaths in 2019, a 49% decrease from 1990. The global age-standardised DALY rate due to unsafe WaSH was 1244.29 (95% UI = 993.20, 1544.13) per 100 000 in 2019, a 66% reduction since 1990. Western sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate (ASDR) and age-standardised DALY rate in both 1990 and 2019. Among the 21 regions studied, only high-income North America witnessed an increasing ASDR from 1990 to 2019. Countries and territories in low SDI regions had higher ASDRs and age-standardised DALY rates. U-shaped associations were observed between the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of ASDR, EAPC of age-standardised DALY rate, and SDI. Both rates were slightly lower in females, with the burden concentrated in those under five and over 80 years old. In 2019, unsafe water source and diarrhoeal diseases remained the leading risk factor and cause of unsafe WaSH-related disease burden, respectively. Despite substantial improvements in hygiene awareness and health education, unsafe WaSH persists as a significant global health risk and a major contributor to the burden of diarrhoeal diseases. Disparities across regions and age groups remain evident. Increased efforts are needed to raise awareness and strengthen water and sanitation infrastructure, particularly in low SDI settings, to mitigate the health risks associated with unsafe WaSH.

Burden of schistosomiasis in global, regional, and national 1990–2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BackgroundDespite the gradual decline of schistosomiasis due to the efforts of the WHO and various countries, with the WHO setting a goal to eliminate schistosomiasis by 2030, a comprehensive global assessment of the current status of schistosomiasis has not been conducted. ObjectivesTo provide a detailed description of the changes in schistosomiasis from 1990 to 2019 by using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. MethodsWe obtained all relevant data on schistosomiasis worldwide from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database from 1990 to 2019. The mortality, prevalence, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), Years of Life Lost (YLLs), Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) of schistosomiasis were examined by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), age, sex, and year at the global, region and national level. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rate(ASR)-prevalence of schistosomiasis has decreased from 2600.9 per 100,000(95% uncertainty interval (UI) 2191.2 to 3059.3) to 1805.0 per 100,000(95% UI 1503.4 to 2146.9). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) from 1990 to 2019 was 1.28 (95% UI 1.22 to 1.33) in high SDI regions and −2.45 (95% UI −3.03 to −1.86) in low SDI regions. In North Africa and the Middle East, the most substantial reduction in DALYs occurred, with an observed EAPC of −5.36. ConclusionThe burden of schistosomiasis has decreased over the past three decades worldwide. However, the high SDI regions have shown the increasing burden of schistosomiasis. Besides, Multiple countries in Africa still bear a significant burden of schistosomiasis, necessitating robust prevention and control efforts.

Epidemiological features and temporal trends of the co-infection between HIV and tuberculosis, 1990–2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundThe co-infection of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and tuberculosis (TB) poses a significant clinical challenge and is a major global public health issue. This study aims to elucidate the disease burden of HIV-TB co-infection in global, regions and countries, providing critical information for policy decisions to curb the HIV-TB epidemic.MethodsThe ecological time-series study used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. The data encompass the numbers of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY), as well as age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), and DALY rate for HIV-infected drug-susceptible tuberculosis (HIV-DS-TB), HIV-infected multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (HIV-MDR-TB), and HIV-infected extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (HIV-XDR-TB) from 1990 to 2021. from 1990 to 2021. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of rates, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), was calculated.ResultsIn 2021, the global ASIR for HIV-DS-TB was 11.59 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.37–13.05 per 100,000 population), 0.55 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.38–0.81 per 100,000 population), for HIV-MDR-TB, and 0.02 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.01–0.03 per 100,000 population) for HIV-XDR-TB. The EAPC for the ASIR of HIV-MDR-TB and HIV-XDR-TB from 1990 to 2021 were 4.71 (95% CI: 1.92–7.59) and 13.63 (95% CI: 9.44–18.01), respectively. The global ASMR for HIV-DS-TB was 2.22 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 1.73–2.74 per 100,000 population), 0.21 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.09–0.39 per 100,000 population) for HIV-MDR-TB, and 0.01 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 0.00–0.03 per 100,000 population) for HIV-XDR-TB in 2021. The EAPC for the ASMR of HIV-MDR-TB and HIV-XDR-TB from 1990 to 2021 were 4.78 (95% CI: 1.32–8.32) and 10.00 (95% CI: 6.09–14.05), respectively.ConclusionsThe findings indicate that enhancing diagnostic and treatment strategies, strengthening healthcare infrastructure, increasing access to quality medical care, and improving public health education are essential to combat HIV-TB co-infection.Graphical

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke attributable to diet high in sodium from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019.

Given the increasing occurrence of stroke and high-sodium diets (DHIS) over the past 30 years, it is crucial to assess the global, national, and regional impact of DHIS on the burden of stroke. The Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 provided the study's data. We used the Bayesian meta-regression tool DisMod-MR 2.1 to evaluate the burden of stroke attributable to DHIS. Age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were used to quantify the burden. We perform correlation analysis utilizing the Spearman rank-order correlation method, and we calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to evaluate temporal trends. Globally, DHIS accounts for 17,673.33 thousand disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 700.98 thousand deaths of stroke in 2019. The burden of stroke attributable to DHIS has declined between 1990 and 2019 globally and in the majority of regions, with the largest declines seen in regions with high sociodemographic indexes (SDI). Both ASMR and ASDR were higher regionally in regions with moderate SDI than those in developed regions. Furthermore, the absolute values of EAPC, reflecting the rate of decrease, were notably lower in these regions compared to developed nations. High-income North America, categorized within the SDI regions, notably witnessed the smallest decline in ASDR over the last three decades. Additionally, from 1990 to 2019, males consistently bore a larger burden of stroke attributable to DHIS. The burden of stroke attributable to DHIS remained a major concern despite advancements in public knowledge of stroke and their utilization of emergency medical services. Over the past 30 years, more burden has been placed on males and regions with moderate SDI values; in males, higher EAPC values for both ASMR and ASDR have been found. This underscores the urgent need for effective interventions to alleviate the burden of stroke associated with DHIS.

The global incidence and trends of three common flavivirus infections (Dengue, yellow fever, and Zika) from 2011 to 2021.

Flavivirus pose a continued threat to global health, yet their worldwide burden and trends remain poorly quantified. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national incidence of three common flavivirus infections (Dengue, yellow fever, and Zika) from 2011 to 2021. Data on the number and rate of incidence for the three common flavivirus infection in 204 countries and territories were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the temporal trend during 2011-2016, 2016-2019, and 2019-2021, respectively. In 2021, an estimated 59,220,428 individuals were infected globally, comprising 58,964,185 cases of dengue, 86,509 cases of yellow fever, and 169,734 cases of Zika virus infection. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of the three common flavivirus infections increased by an annual average of 5.08% (95% CI 4.12 to 6.05) globally from 2011 to 2016, whereas decreased by an annual average of -8.37% (95% CI -12.46 to -4.08) per year between 2016 to 2019. The ASIR remained stable during 2019-2021, with an average change of 0.69% (95% CI -0.96 to 2.37) per year globally for the three common flavivirus infections. Regionally, the burden of the three common flavivirus infections was primarily concentrated in those regions with middle income, such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Tropical Latin America. Additionally, at the country level, there was an inverted "U" relationship between the SDI level and the ASI. Notably, an increase in the average age of infected cases has been observed worldwide, particularly in higher-income regions. Flavivirus infections are an expanding public health concern worldwide, with considerable regional and demographic variation in the incidence. Policymakers and healthcare providers must stay vigilant regarding the impact of COVID-19 and other environmental factors on the risk of flavivirus infection and be prepared for potential future outbreaks.

Global, regional, and national burden and trends of migraine among youths and young adults aged 15–39 years from 1990 to 2021: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021

BackgroundMigraine, a widespread neurological condition, substantially affects the quality of life, particularly for adolescents and young adults. While its impact is significant, there remains a paucity of comprehensive global research on the burden of migraine in younger demographics. Our study sought to elucidate the global prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with migraine in the 15–39 age group from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.MethodsOur comprehensive study analyzed migraine data from the GBD 2021 report, examining the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs across 204 countries and territories over a 32-year span. We stratified the information by age, sex, year, geographical region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). To evaluate temporal trends in these metrics, we employed the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) calculation.ResultsBetween 1990 and 2021, the worldwide prevalence of migraine among 15–39 year-olds increased substantially. By 2021, an estimated 593.8 million cases were reported, representing a 39.52% rise from 425.6 million cases in 1990. Global trends showed increases in age-standardized prevalence rate, incidence rate, and DALY rate for migraine during this period. The EAPC were positive for all three metrics: 0.09 for ASPR, 0.03 for ASIR, and 0.09 for DALY rate. Regions with medium SDI reported the highest absolute numbers of prevalent cases, incident cases, and DALYs in 2021. However, high SDI regions demonstrated the most elevated rates overall. Across the globe, migraine prevalence peaked in the 35–39 age group. Notably, female rates consistently exceeded male rates across all age categories.ConclusionThe global impact of migraine on youths and young adults has grown considerably from 1990 to 2021, revealing notable variations across SDI regions, countries, age groups, and sexes. This escalating burden necessitates targeted interventions and public health initiatives, especially in areas and populations disproportionately affected by migraine.

Trend analysis of stroke subtypes mortality attributable to high body-mass index in China from 1990 to 2019

BackgroundThe prevalence of stroke disability associated with high BMI has significantly increased over the past three decades. However, it remains uncertain whether high body-mass index (BMI) exerts a similar impact on the disease burden of different stroke subtypes. The aim of this study is to assess the long-term trends of stroke and subtypes mortality attributable to high BMI in China between 1990 and 2019.MethodsData on stroke and subtypes mortality attributable to high BMI in China was extracted in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. The trends of age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated using the linear regression and age-period-cohort framework.ResultsThe changing trend of ASMR on stroke attributable to high BMI in China differed among subtypes, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and 95%CI of 2.04 (1.86 to 2.21) for ischemic stroke (IS), 0.36 (-0.03 to 0.75) for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and − 4.62 (-5.44 to -3.78) for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Net and local drift analyses revealed a gradual increase in the proportion of older people with IS and a gradual increase in the proportion of younger people with hemorrhagic strokes. The cohort and period rate ratios varied by subtype, showing an increasing trend for IS and ICH but a decreasing trend for SAH. The stroke mortality attributable to high BMI increased significantly with age for IS and ICH, peaking between ages 50–70 for SAH. Notably, males had higher ASMR related to stroke but exhibited slighter declines or higher growth compared to females in China. Moreover, the population affected by fatal strokes tended to be older among females but more evenly distributed across a wider age range encompassing both younger and older individuals.ConclusionThe research findings indicate a rising trend in the ASMR of stroke and subtypes attributable to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2019, with different patterns of change for different subtypes, genders and ages. Consequently, it is imperative for public health authorities in China to formulate guidelines for specific stroke subtypes, genders and ages to prevent the burden of stroke attributable to high BMI.

The global burden, trends and cross-country inequalities of female breast and gynaecologic cancers: A population based study.

To analyse the global burden, trends and cross-country inequalities of female breast and gynaecologic cancers (FeBGCs). Population-Based Study. Data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Individuals diagnosed with FeBGCs. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), age-standardised Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) rates (ASDRs) and their 95% uncertainty interval (UI) described the burden. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) and their confidence interval (CI) of age-standardised rates (ASRs) illustrated trends. Social inequalities were quantified using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Concentration Index. The main outcome measures were the burden of FeBGCs and the trends in its inequalities over time. In 2019, the ASDRs per 100 000 females were as follows: breast cancer: 473.83 (95% UI: 437.30-510.51), cervical cancer: 210.64 (95% UI: 177.67-234.85), ovarian cancer: 124.68 (95% UI: 109.13-138.67) and uterine cancer: 210.64 (95% UI: 177.67-234.85). The trends per year from 1990 to 2019 were expressed as EAPCs of ASDRs and these: for Breast cancer: -0.51 (95% CI: -0.57 to -0.45); Cervical cancer: -0.95 (95% CI: -0.99 to -0.89); Ovarian cancer: -0.08 (95% CI: -0.12 to -0.04); and Uterine cancer: -0.84 (95% CI: -0.93 to -0.75). In the Social Inequalities Analysis (1990-2019) the SII changed from 689.26 to 607.08 for Breast, from -226.66 to -239.92 for cervical, from 222.45 to 228.83 for ovarian and from 74.61 to 103.58 for uterine cancer. The concentration index values ranged from 0.2 to 0.4. The burden of FeBGCs worldwide showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019. Countries or regions with higher Socio-demographic Index (SDI) bear a higher DALYs burden of breast, ovarian and uterine cancers, while those with lower SDI bear a heavier burden of cervical cancer. These inequalities increased over time.

Change in the global burden of depression from 1990-2019 and its prediction for 2030

ObjectiveDepression is a global health challenge, but only a few studies have fully assessed and predicted the disease burden. This study described the trend of global depression burden from 1990 to 2019 through age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life rate (ASDR), and predicted the number of cases of depression during 2020–2030. MethodsLinear regression analysis was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the age-standardized rates. The trends of global depression burden from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) across various regions. Finally, we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict the disease burden in the coming 10 years. ResultsGlobally, the ASIR of depression decreased from 3681.24 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 3588.25 per 100,000 population in 2019 and the EAPC was −0.29%. ASDR also decreased, following a similar trend as the ASIR. The highest ASDR was observed in adults aged 60–64 years. The burden of depressive illness was higher in women, with the greatest increase in incidence in low SDI areas. BAPC predicted that the worldwide ASIR and ASDR of depression would stabilize from 2020 to 2030, with an increasing number of cases. By 2030, the ASIR was estimated to be 2519.88 per 100,000 men and 3835.11 per 100,000 women. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2019, the global burden of depression remained significant, especially among women. It is important to address depression in older people, and it is therefore necessary to develop measures for prevention.

Global, regional, national epidemiology and trends of neglected tropical diseases in youths and young adults aged 15–39 years from 1990 to 2019: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

BackgroundIn recent years, the escalating concern for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has been recognized as a pressing global health issue. This concern is acutely manifested in low- and middle-income countries, where there is an escalating prevalence among adolescents and young adults. The burgeoning of these conditions threatens to impair patients' occupational capabilities and overall life quality. Despite the considerable global impact of NTDs, comprehensive studies focusing on their impact in younger populations remain scarce. Our study aims to describe the global prevalence of neglected tropical diseases among people aged 15 to 39 years over the 30-year period from 1990 to 2019, and to project the disease burden of the disease up to 2040.MethodsAnnual data on incident cases, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for NTDs were procured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). These data were stratified by global and regional distribution, country, social development index (SDI), age, and sex. We computed age-standardized rates (ASRs) and the numbers of incident cases, mortalities, and DALYs from 1990 to 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the ASRs was calculated to evaluate evolving trends.ResultsIn 2019, it was estimated that there were approximately 552 million NTD cases globally (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 519.9 million to 586.3 million), a 29% decrease since 1990. South Asia reported the highest NTD prevalence, with an estimated 171.7 million cases (95% UI: 150.4 million to 198.6 million). Among the five SDI categories, the prevalence of NTDs was highest in the moderate and low SDI regions in 1990 (approximately 270.5 million cases) and 2019 (approximately 176.5 million cases). Sub-Saharan Africa recorded the most significant decline in NTD cases over the past three decades. Overall, there was a significant inverse correlation between the disease burden of NTDs and SDI.ConclusionNTDs imposed over half a billion incident cases and 10.8 million DALYs lost globally in 2019—exerting an immense toll rivaling major infectious and non-communicable diseases. Encouraging declines in prevalence and disability burdens over the past three decades spotlight the potential to accelerate progress through evidence-based allocation of resources. Such strategic integration could substantially enhance public awareness about risk factors and available treatment options.

Global, regional, and national burdens of HIV/AIDS acquired through sexual transmission 1990-2019: an observational study.

Background Sexual transmission accounts for a substantial proportion of HIV infections. Although some countries are experiencing an upward trend in HIV infections, there has been a lack of studies assessing the global burden of HIV/AIDS acquired through sexual transmission. We assessed the global, regional, and national burdens of HIV/AIDS acquired through sexual transmission from 1990 to 2019. Methods Data on deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of HIV/AIDS acquired through sexual transmission in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. The burdens and trends were evaluated using the age-standardised rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Results Globally, HIV/AIDS acquired through sexual transmission accounted for ~695.8 thousand (95% uncertainty interval 628.0-811.3) deaths, 33.0million (28.7-39.9) YLLs, 3.4million (2.4-4.6) YLDs, and 36.4million (32.2-43.1) DALYs in 2019. In 2019, Southern sub-Saharan Africa (11350.94), Eastern sub-Saharan Africa (3530.91), and Western sub-Saharan Africa (2037.74) had the highest ASR of DALYs of HIV/AIDS acquired through sexual transmission per 100,000. In most regions of the world, the burden of HIV/AIDS acquired through sexual transmission has been increasing from 1990 to 2019, mainly in Oceania (EAPC 17.20, 95% confidence interval 12.82-21.75), South Asia (9.00, 3.94-14.30), and Eastern Europe (7.09, 6.35-7.84). Conclusions HIV/AIDS acquired through sexual transmission results in a major burden globally, regionally, and nationally.

Trends in the burden of female infertility among adults aged 20–49 years during 1990–2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

ObjectivesThe aim of this analysis was to investigate the worldwide distribution and trends in the burden of female infertility (FI).Design and settingAnalysis of cross-sectional data from 1990 to 2019 from...

Analysis of asthma incidence and mortality rates among children aged 0–14 in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019

Objective Asthma is a common chronic respiratory disease in children. Understanding incidence and mortality trends is crucial for prevention and intervention strategies. Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study were used to analyze asthma incidence and mortality trends among children aged 0–14 in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019. The 30-year trends were calculated using the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC). Results Globally, pediatric asthma cases increased from 18,857,697 in 1990 to 20,191,786 in 2019. Incidence rates for children <5, 5–9, and 10–14 years are 1509.36, 980.25, and 586.95 per 100,000, respectively. Over 30 years, pediatric asthma mortality rates significantly decreased from 1.59 to 0.51 per 100,000, with minimal gender differences. High-income North America, Tropical Latin America, and the Caribbean show the highest incidence rates at 3203.2, 2493.83, and 2314.8 per 100,000. The USA, Puerto Rico, and Haiti have the highest national rates at 3357.17, 2695.30, and 2605.38 per 100,000. Regions with higher Sociodemographic Index levels tend to have higher incidence rates. Pediatric asthma prevalence varies by region and age group. Conclusion Our study of asthma incidence and mortality rates among children aged 0–14 across 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 reveals significant global disparities. These findings underscore the influence of socioeconomic and environmental factors on asthma prevalence and outcomes.