Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean Research Articles

Is the negative IOD during 2016 the reason for monsoon failure over southwest peninsular India?

The study investigates the mechanism responsible for the deficit rainfall over southwest peninsular India during the 2016 monsoon season. Analysis shows that the large-scale variation in circulation pattern due to the strong, negative Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon was the reason for the deficit rainfall. Significant reduction in the number of northward-propagating monsoon-organized convections together with fast propagation over the southwest peninsular India resulted in reduction in rainfall. On the other hand, their persistence for longer time over the central part of India resulted in normal rainfall. It was found that the strong convection over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean creates strong convergence over that region. The combined effect of the sinking due to the well-developed Walker circulation originated over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the descending limb of the monsoon Hadley cell caused strong subsidence over the western equatorial Indian Ocean. The tail of this large-scale sinking extended up to the southern parts of India. This hinders formation of monsoon-organized convections leading to a large deficiency of rainfall during monsoon 2016 over the southwest peninsular India.

Breakdown of the Relationship between Australian Summer Rainfall and ENSO Caused by Tropical Indian Ocean SST Warming

AbstractThe relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Australian summer rainfall (ASR) during 1960–2015 experienced an interdecadal change around the mid-1980s. Before the mid-1980s, ASR was significantly correlated with tropical central Pacific (TCP) sea surface temperature (SST), whereas after that it was not. While El Niño was always independent from ASR, La Niña had a close relationship with ASR. However, this relationship was weakened after the mid-1980s. The Indian Ocean SST warming might contribute to the weakening relationship between La Niña and ASR. For La Niña events before the mid-1980s, the negative SSTA over TCP and the southern tropical Indian Ocean induced a large-scale lower-level cyclonic anomaly over Australia, leading to nearly uniform positive precipitation over Australia. In this manner, a significant relationship between ASR and La Niña was established. On the contrary, for the La Niña events after the mid-1980s, because of the Indian Ocean SST warming, the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent presented positive SSTAs and enhanced moisture, favoring enhanced rainfall anomalies over the equatorial Maritime Continent. This enhanced rainfall condensation heating induced a lower-level cyclonic anomaly to the west of Australia. The northerly anomalies at the eastern flank of this cyclonic anomaly counteracted the southerly anomalies at the western flank of the cyclonic anomaly over eastern Australia induced by the negative TCP SSTA, leading to insignificant circulation and rainfall anomalies over Australia. As such, being interfered with by the equatorial Maritime Continent heating, the relationship between ASR and La Niña was weakened.

Response of the tropical Indian Ocean SST to decay phase of La Niña and associated processes

Delayed impact of El Niño on Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variations and associated physical mechanisms are well documented by several studies. However, TIO SST evolution during the decay phase of La Niña and related processes are not adequately addressed before. Strong cooling associated with La Niña decay over the TIO could influence climate over the Indian Oceanic rim including Indian summer monsoon circulation and remotely northwest Pacific circulation. Thus understanding the TIO basin-wide cooling and related physical mechanisms during decaying La Niña years is important. Composite analyses revealed that negative SST anomalies allied to La Niña gradually dissipate from its mature phase (winter) till subsequent summer in central and eastern Pacific. In contrast, magnitude of negative SST anomalies in TIO, induced by La Niña, starts increasing from winter and attains their peak values in early summer. It is found that variations in heat flux play an important role in SST cooling over the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and part of Arabian Sea from late winter to early summer during the decay phase of La Niña. Ocean dynamical processes are mainly responsible for the evolution of southern TIO SST cooling. Strong signals of westward propagating upwelling Rossby waves between 10°S to 20°S are noted throughout (the decaying phase of La Niña) spring and summer. Anomalous cyclonic wind stress curl to the south of the equator is responsible for triggering upwelling Rossby waves over the southeastern TIO. Further, upwelling Rossby waves are also apparent in the Arabian Sea from spring to summer and partly contributing to the SST cooling. Heat budget analysis reveals that negative SST/MLT (mixed layer temperature) anomalies over the Arabian Sea are mostly controlled by heat flux from winter to spring and vertical advection plays an important role during early summer. Vertical and horizontal advection terms primarily contribute to the SST cooling anomalies over southern TIO and the Bay of Bengal cooling is primarily dominated by heat flux. Further we have discussed influence of TIO cooling on local rainfall variations.

Intrinsic precursors and timescale of the tropical Indian Ocean Dipole: insights from partially decoupled numerical experiment

The intrinsic precursors and timescale of the tropical Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are examined with the help of a partially coupled global experiment with decoupled SST over the tropical Pacific. The IOD does exist in the absence of sea surface temperature interannual variability in the tropical Pacific in our modeling framework, but has weaker amplitude and damped Bjerknes feedback. However, IOD variability is much more biennial in the absence than presence of El Nino Southern Oscillation, especially in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (IO). Such biennial rhythm results mainly from two mechanisms internal to the IO. The tropical ocean dynamics play a key role in the biennial anomalies during boreal winter with a sudden reversal of thermocline anomalies in the eastern equatorial IO forced by intraseasonal disturbances reminiscent of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). However, this preconditioning is not sufficient for triggering IOD events in the next boreal spring per se. The main trigger for pure IODs relates to tropical–extratropical interactions within the IO. Convection and diabating heating associated with negative IODs promote a Gill-type tropical response, excite mid-latitude wave-trains and subtropical blocking in the Southern Hemisphere that trigger positive subtropical IOD events during boreal winter. The latter promotes cold SST and anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeast IO that persist and migrate northeastward, triggering positive IOD events during the next boreal spring. Accounting for the complementary influence of tropical ocean dynamics coupled to MJO and tropical-extratropical ocean–atmosphere interactions may thus help improving IOD predictability.

Salinity Variability Associated with the Positive Indian Ocean Dipole and Its Impact on the Upper Ocean Temperature

Abstract Both surface and subsurface salinity variability associated with positive Indian Ocean dipole (pIOD) events and its impacts on the sea surface temperature (SST) evolution are investigated through analysis of observational/reanalysis data and sensitivity experiments with a one-dimensional mixed layer model. During the pIOD, negative (positive) sea surface salinity (SSS) anomalies appear in the central-eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (southeastern tropical Indian Ocean). In addition to these SSS anomalies, positive (negative) salinity anomalies are found near the pycnocline in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (southern tropical Indian Ocean). A salinity balance analysis shows that these subsurface salinity anomalies are mainly generated by zonal and vertical salt advection anomalies induced by anomalous currents associated with the pIOD. These salinity anomalies stabilize (destabilize) the upper ocean stratification in the central-eastern equatorial (southeastern tropical) Indian Ocean. By decomposing observed densities into contribution from temperature and salinity anomalies, it is shown that the contribution from anomalous salinity stratification is comparable to that from anomalous thermal stratification. Furthermore, impacts of these salinity anomalies on the SST evolution are quantified for the first time using a one-dimensional mixed layer model. Since enhanced salinity stratification in the central-eastern equatorial Indian Ocean suppresses vertical mixing, significant warming of about 0.3°–0.5°C occurs. On the other hand, stronger vertical mixing associated with reduced salinity stratification results in significant SST cooling of about 0.2°–0.5°C in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean. These results suggest that variations in salinity may potentially play a crucial role in the evolution of the pIOD.

Tintinnid community structure in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean during the spring inter‑monsoon period

Tintinnid community structure was investigated by plankton net (20 mu m) sampling in the water column (0-200 m) at 33 stations during the spring inter-monsoon (10 March to 9 April 2012) in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. A total of 126 species belonging to 32 genera were recorded. Tintinnid abundance and biomass in the range of 193-2983 ind. m(-3) and 0.99-14.75 mu g C m(-3) were positively related to integrated chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration. Taxonomic and morphological diversity were not significantly related to integrated chl a concentration and size diversity, estimated by size-fractionated chl a concentration in the water column of 0-200 m, but were negatively correlated to the depth of the deep chlorophyll maximum. Species abundance distributions at most stations (31 of 33) and in the 3 zones-the northern zone of the equator, the southern zone of the equator (SEQ) and the equator (EQ)-followed a typical lognormal distribution. The geometric distribution gave the best fit for the distribution of lorica oral diameter size-classes in the NEQ and SEQ. Our results suggest that the community structure of tintinnids is governed by the underlying water column environment rather than by the neutral theory of random colonization from a large species pool.

Vertical Characteristics of Reflectivity in Intense Convective Clouds using TRMM PR Data

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar (TRMM-PR) based vertical structure in intense convective precipitation is presented here for Indian and Austral summer monsoon seasons. TRMM 2A23 data is used to identify the convective echoes in PR data. Two types of cloud cells are constructed here, namely intense convective cloud (ICC) and most intense convective cloud (MICC). ICC consists of PR radar beams having Ze>=40 dBZ above 1.5 km in convective precipitation area, whereas MICC, consists of maximum reflectivity at each altitude in convective precipitation area, with at least one radar pixel must be higher than 40 dBZ or more above 1.5 km within the selected areas. We have selected 20 locations across the tropics to see the regional differences in the vertical structure of convective clouds. One of the important findings of the present study is identical behavior in the average vertical profiles in intense convective precipitation in lower troposphere across the different areas. MICCs show the higher regional differences compared to ICCs between 5-12 km altitude. Land dominated areas show higher regional differences and Southeast south America (SESA) has the strongest vertical profile (higher Ze at higher altitude) followed by Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP), Africa, north Latin America whereas weakest vertical profile occurs over Australia. Overall SESA (41%) and IGP (36%) consist higher fraction of deep convective clouds (>10 km), whereas, among the tropical oceanic areas, Western (Eastern) equatorial Indian ocean consists higher fraction of low (high) level of convective clouds. Nearly identical average vertical profiles over the tropical oceanic areas, indicate the similarity in the development of intense convective clouds and useful while considering them in model studies.

Impacts of Boreal Winter Monsoon Cold Surges and the Interaction with MJO on Southeast Asia Rainfall

Abstract TRMM rainfall data from 1998–2012 are used to study the impacts and interactions of cold surges (CSs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on rainfall over Southeast Asia during the boreal winter season from November to February. CSs are identified using a new large-scale index. The frequencies of occurrences of these two large-scale events are comparable (about 20% of the days each), but the spatial pattern of impacts show differences resulting from the interactions of the general flow with the complex orography of the region. The largest impact of CSs occurs in and around the southern South China Sea as a result of increased low-level convergence on the windward side of the terrain and increased shear vorticity off Borneo that enhances the Borneo vortex. The largest impact of the MJO is in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, sheltered from CSs by Sumatra. In general CSs are significantly more likely to trigger extreme rainfall. When both systems are present, the rainfall pattern is mainly controlled by the CSs. However, the MJO makes the environment more favorable for convection by moistening the atmosphere and facilitating conditional instability, resulting in a significant increased rainfall response compared to CSs alone. In addition to the interactions of the two systems in convection, this study confirms a previously identified mechanism in which the MJO may reduce CS frequency through opposing dynamic structures.

Association between mean and interannual equatorial Indian Ocean subsurface temperature bias in a coupled model

In the present study the association between mean and interannual subsurface temperature bias over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) is investigated during boreal summer (June through September; JJAS) in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcast. Anomalously high subsurface warm bias (greater than 3 °C) over the eastern EIO (EEIO) region is noted in CFSv2 during summer, which is higher compared to other parts of the tropical Indian Ocean. Prominent eastward current bias in the upper 100 m over the EIO region induced by anomalous westerly winds is primarily responsible for subsurface temperature bias. The eastward currents transport warm water to the EEIO and is pushed down to subsurface due to downwelling. Thus biases in both horizontal and vertical currents over the EIO region support subsurface warm bias. The evolution of systematic subsurface warm bias in the model shows strong interannual variability. These maximum subsurface warming episodes over the EEIO are mainly associated with La Nina like forcing. Strong convergence of low level winds over the EEIO and Maritime continent enhanced the westerly wind bias over the EIO during maximum warming years. This low level convergence of wind is induced by the bias in the gradient in the mean sea level pressure with positive bias over western EIO and negative bias over EEIO and parts of western Pacific. Consequently, changes in the atmospheric circulation associated with La Nina like conditions affected the ocean dynamics by modulating the current bias thereby enhancing the subsurface warm bias over the EEIO. It is identified that EEIO subsurface warming is stronger when La Nina co-occurred with negative Indian Ocean Dipole events as compared to La Nina only years in the model. Ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments forced with CFSv2 winds clearly support our hypothesis that ocean dynamics influenced by westerly winds bias is primarily responsible for the strong subsurface warm bias over the EEIO. This study advocates the importance of understanding the ability of the models in representing the large scale air–sea interactions over the tropics and their impact on ocean biases for better monsoon forecast.

Intraseasonal‐to‐semiannual variability of sea‐surface height in the astern, equatorial Indian Ocean and southern Bay of Bengal

AbstractIntraseasonal‐to‐semiannual variability of sea‐surface height (SSH) in the eastern, equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) and southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) is investigated using altimetric data, and solutions to 1½ layer (first baroclinic mode) and linear, continuously stratified (LCS; multibaroclinic‐mode) models. The amplitude and dominant periods of SSH variability differ regionally. Large‐amplitude variability is found along the west coast of Sumatra, in a zonal band across the BoB centered along 5°N, east of Sri Lanka, and in the northwestern BoB, respectively. Along the Sumatran west coast, SSH variability peaks at 30–60, 90, and 180 days. Along 5°N and east of Sri Lanka, the 30–60 day variability is dominant. Sensitivity experiments using a nonlinear version of the 1½ layer model forced by realistic winds reproduce the observed patterns of intraseasonal variability in the southern BoB. At 30–60 days, the solutions show that eddies (nonlinear Rossby waves) propagating from the east, rather than local wind forcing, account for most of the variance east of Sri Lanka; furthermore, they demonstrate that the variance is significantly enhanced by the nonlinear transfer of 90–120 day energy into the intraseasonal band of 30–60 days. The LCS solutions show that the first two baroclinic modes explain most of the SSH variance at 90–180 days. The second baroclinic mode dominates the SSH variance at 180 days, a consequence of basin resonance and strong wind forcing.

Assessing the Impact of Model Biases on the Projected Increase in Frequency of Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Events

For many generations, models simulate an Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) that is overly large in amplitude. The possible impact of this systematic bias on climate projections, including a projected frequency increase in extreme positive IOD (pIOD) using a rainfall-based definition, has attracted attention. In particular, a recent study suggests that the increased frequency is an artifact of the overly large IOD amplitude. In contrast, here the opposite is found. Through intermodel ensemble regressions, the present study shows that models producing a high frequency in the present-day climate generate a small future frequency increase. The frequency is associated with the mean equatorial west-minus-east sea surface temperature (SST) gradient: the greater the gradient, the greater the frequency because it is easier to shift convection to the west, which characterizes an extreme pIOD. A greater present-day gradient is associated with a present-day shallower thermocline, lower SSTs, and lower rainfall in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO). Because there is an inherent limit for a maximum rainfall reduction and for the impact on surface cooling by a shallowing of an already shallow mean EEIO thermocline, there is a smaller increase in frequency in models with a shallower present-day EEIO thermocline. Given that a bias of overly shallow EEIO thermocline and overly low EEIO SSTs and rainfall is common in models, the future frequency increase should be underestimated, opposite to an implied overestimation resulting from the overly large IOD amplitude bias. Therefore, correcting the projected frequency from a single bias, without considering other biases that are present, is not appropriate and should be avoided.

SST and OLR relationship during Indian summer monsoon: a coupled climate modelling perspective

The study mainly investigates sea surface temperature (SST) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) relationships in coupled climate model. To support the analysis, high-level cloud and OLR relationship is also investigated. High-level cloud and OLR relationship depicts significant negative correlation over the entire monsoon regime. Coupled climate model is able to produce the same. SST and OLR relationship in observation also depicts significant negative relationship, in particular, over the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) region. Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is able to portray the negative relationship over EIO region; however, it is underestimated as compared to observation. Significant negative correlations elucidate that local SSTs regulate the convection and further it initiates Bjerknes feedback in the central Indian Ocean. It connotes that SST anomalies during monsoon period tend to be determined by oceanic forcing. The heat content of the coastal Bay of Bengal shows highest response to EIO SST by a lag of 1 month. It suggests that the coastal region of the Bay of Bengal is marked by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, which might have come from EIO at a time lag of 1 month. Sea surface height anomalies, depth at 20 °C isotherms and depth at 26 isotherms also supports the above hypothesis. Composite analysis based on EIO index and coupled climate model sensitivity experiments also suggest that the coastal Bay of Bengal region is marked by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, which are propagated from EIO at a time lag of 1 month. Thus, SST and OLR relationship pinpoints that the Bay of Bengal OLR (convection) is governed by local ocean–atmospheric coupling, which is influenced by the delayed response from EIO brought forward through oceanic planetary waves at a lag of 1 month. These results have utmost predictive value for seasonal and extended range forecasting. Thus, OLR and SST relationship can constitute a pivotal role in investigating the atmosphere–ocean interaction.

Impacts of Indonesian Throughflow on seasonal circulation in the equatorial Indian Ocean

Impacts of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) on seasonal circulation in the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean are investigated using the ocean-only model LICOM by opening and closing ITF passages. LICOM had daily forcing from NCEP reanalysis data during 2000-2011. It can reproduce vertical profiles of mean density and buoyancy frequency of World Ocean Atlas 2013 data. The model also simulates well annual oscillation in the central Indian Ocean and semiannual oscillation in the eastern Indian Ocean of sea level anomalies (SLA) using satellite altimeter data, as well as the semiannual oscillation of surface zonal equatorial currents of Ocean Surface Current Analyses Real Time current data in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The wave decomposition method is used to analyze the propagation and reflection of equatorial long waves based on LICOM output. Wave analysis suggests that ITF blockage mainly influences waves generated from the Indian Ocean but not the Pacific Ocean, and eastern boundary reflections play an important role in semiannual oscillations of SLA and zonal current differences in the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with ITF. Reconstructed ITF-caused SLA using wave decomposition coefficient differences between closed and open ITF-passage experiments suggest both Kelvin and Rossby waves from the first baroclinic mode have comparable contributions to the semiannual oscillations of SLA difference. However, reconstructed ITF-caused surface zonal currents at the equator suggest that the first meridional-mode Rossby wave has much greater contribution than the first baroclinic mode Kelvin wave. Both reconstructed sea level and zonal currents demonstrate that the first baroclinic mode has a greater contribution than other baroclinic modes.

Interannual spring Wyrtki jet variability and its regional impacts

The role of spring Wyrtki jets in modulating the equatorial Indian Ocean and the regional climate is an unexplored problem. The source of interannual variability in the spring Wyrtki jets is explored in this study. The relationship between intraseasonal and interannual variability from 1958 to 2008 and its relation with Indian Summer Monsoon is further addressed. Analysis reveals that the interannual variability in spring Wyrtki jets is controlled significantly by their intraseasonal variations. These are mostly defined by a single intraseasonal event of duration 20days or more which either strengthens or weakens the seasonal mean jet depending on its phase. The strong spring jets are driven by such intraseasonal westerly wind bursts lasting for 20-days or more, whereas the weak jets are driven by weaker intraseasonal westerlies. During the years of strong jets, the conventional westward phase propagation of Wyrtki jets is absent and instead there is an eastward phase propagation indicating the possible role of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in strengthening the spring Wyrtki jets. These strong intraseasonal westerly wind bursts with eastward phase propagation during strong years are observed mainly in late spring and have implications on June precipitation over the Indian and adjoining land mass. Anomalously strong eastward jets accumulate warm water in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), leading to anomalous positive upper ocean heat content and supporting more local convection in the east. This induces subsidence over the Indian landmass and alters monsoon rainfall by modulating monsoon Hadley circulation. In case of weak current years such warm anomalies are absent over the eastern EIO. Variations in the jet strength are found to have strong impact on sea level anomalies, heat content, salinity and sea surface temperature over the equatorial and north Indian Ocean making it a potentially important player in the north Indian Ocean climate variability.

Simulations of MJO Propagation across the Maritime Continent: Impacts of SST Feedback

Abstract The observed Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) tends to propagate eastward across the Maritime Continent from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean to the western Pacific. However, numerical simulations present different levels of fidelity in representing the propagation, especially for the tropical convection associated with the MJO. This study conducts a series of coupled simulations using the NCEP CFSv2 to explore the impacts of SST feedback and convection parameterization on the propagation simulations. First, two simulations differing in the model horizontal resolutions are conducted. The MJO propagation in these two simulations is found generally insensitive to the resolution change. Further, based on the CFSv2 with a lower resolution, two additional experiments are performed with model SSTs nudged to climatologies with different time scales representing different air–sea coupling strength. It is demonstrated that weakening the air–sea coupling strength significantly degrades the MJO propagation simulation, suggesting the critical role of SST feedback in maintaining MJO propagation. Last, the sensitivity to convection parameterization is explored by comparing two simulations with different convection parameterization schemes. Analyses of these simulations indicate that including air–sea coupling alone in a dynamical model does not result in realistic maintenance of the MJO eastward propagation without the development of favorable SST conditions in the western Pacific. In both observations and one simulation with realistic MJO propagations, the preconditioning of SSTs is strongly affected by surface latent heat fluxes that are modulated by surface wind anomalies in both zonal and meridional directions. The diagnostics highlight the critical contribution from meridional winds in wind speed variations, which has been neglected in most MJO studies.

Relationship between optimal precursors for Indian Ocean Dipole events and optimally growing initial errors in its prediction

Using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2p1, we explored the precursory disturbances that are most likely to develop into a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The dominant spatial patterns of these precursors are defined as the optimal precursors (OPRs) of positive IOD as they are more inclined to cause a positive IOD than other superimposed initial perturbations in the experiments. Specifically, there are two types of OPRs with opposite patterns; the surface component of OPR-1 (OPR-2) is an indistinctive west–east dipole pattern, with a small area of negative (positive) perturbations to the coast of Sumatra and Java. Correspondingly, there is a significant west–east dipole pattern in the subsurface component of the OPRs, with the largest values located in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The dominant mode of the time-dependent evolutions of the precursors features rapid development of positive IOD. Furthermore, the OPRs are similar to the optimally growing initial errors (OGEs) associated with IOD predictions that have been presented in previous studies. The shortwave radiation, latent heat flux and westward Rossby waves play an important role in the time-dependent evolution of OGEs. Moreover, the large values of the OPRs are located in the same areas as the sensitive areas of targeted observations identified by the OGEs. This infers that intensive observations over these areas would not only reduce initial errors, improve the accuracy of initial fields and decrease the prediction errors, but would also detect the precursory signals in advance, which substantially improves the forecast skill of IOD. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (IITM-GODAS) in representing the oceanic features are examined. IITM-GODAS has been used to provide initial conditions for seasonal forecast in India during 2014 and 2015. The years 2014 and 2015 witnessed deficit ISM rainfall but were evolved from two entirely different preconditions over Pacific. This raises concern over the present understanding of the role of Pacific Ocean on ISM variability. Analysis reveals that the mechanisms associated with the rainfall deficit over the Indian Subcontinent are different in the two years. It is found that remote forcing in summer of 2015 due to El Nino is mostly responsible for the deficit monsoon rainfall through changes in Walker circulation and large-scale subsidence. In the case of the summer of 2014, both local circulation with anomalous anticyclone over central India and intrusion of mid-latitude dry winds from north have contributed for the deficit rainfall. In addition to the above, Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and remote forcing from Pacific Ocean also modulated the ISM rainfall. It is observed that Pacific SST warming has extended westward in 2014, making it a basin scale warming unlike the strong El Nino year 2015. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than west in summer of 2014, and vice versa in 2015. These differences in SST in both tropical Pacific and TIO have considerable impact on ISM rainfall in 2014 and 2015. The study reveals that initializing coupled forecast models with proper upper ocean temperature over the Indo-Pacific is therefore essential for improved model forecast. It is important to note that the IITM-GODAS which assimilates only array for real-time geostrophic oceanography (ARGO) temperature and salinity profiles could capture most of the observed surface and subsurface temperature variations from early spring to summer during the years 2014 and 2015 over the Indo-Pacific region. This study highlights the importance of maintaining observing systems such as ARGO for accurate monsoon forecast.

High-precision 40Ar/39Ar dating of pleistocene tuffs and temporal anchoring of the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary

Abstract High-precision 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages for a series of proximal tuffs from the Toba super-volcano in Indonesia, and the Bishop Tuff and Lava Creek Tuff B in North America have been obtained. Core from Ocean Drilling Project Site 758 in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean contains discrete tephra layers that we have geochemically correlated to the Young Toba Tuff (73.7 ± 0.3 ka), Middle Toba Tuff (502 ± 0.7 ka) and two eruptions (OTTA and OTTB) related to the Old Toba Tuff (792.4 ± 0.5 and 785.6 ± 0.7 ka, respectively) ( 40 Ar/ 39 Ar data reported as full external precision, 1 sigma). Within ODP 758 Termination IX is coincident with OTTB and hence this age tightly constrains the transition from Marine Isotope Stage 19–20 for the Indian Ocean. The core also preserves the location of the Australasian tektites, and the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary with Bayesian age-depth models used to determine the ages of these events, c. 786 and c. 784 ka, respectively. In North America, the Bishop Tuff (766.6 ± 0.4 ka) and Lava Creek Tuff B (627.0 ± 1.5 ka) have quantifiable stratigraphic relationships to the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary. Linear age-depth extrapolation, allowing for uncertainties associated with potential hiatuses in five different terrestrial sections, defines a geomagnetic reversal age of 789 ± 6 ka. Considering our data with respect to the previously published age data for the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary of Sagnotti et al. (2014), we suggest at the level of temporal resolution currently attainable using radioisotopic dating the last reversal of Earths geomagnetic field was isochronous. An overall Matuyama-Brunhes reversal age of 783.4 ± 0.6 ka is calculated, which allowing for inherent uncertainties in the astronomical dating approach, is indistinguishable from the LR04 stack age (780 ± 5 ka) for the geomagnetic boundary. Our high-precision age is 10 ± 2 ka older than the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary age of 773 ± 1 ka, as reported previously by Channell et al. (2010) for Atlantic Ocean records. As ODP 758 features in the LR04 marine stack, the high-precision 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages determined here, as well as the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary age, can be used as temporally accurate and precise anchors for the Pleistocene time scale.

WindSat and RAMA Buoy: a comparison of ocean-atmosphere data

Ocean-atmosphere data deployed along the equatorial Indian Ocean were used for validating the ocean-atmosphere data recorded by the WindSat satellite. Three RAMA Buoys mounted at 67 °E, 80.5°E and 90 °E along the equator were used to evaluate the sea surface temperature (SST), wind speeds and precipitation obtained by the WindSat satellite, except for precipitation in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The SST from WindSat shows significant correlation with that from RAMA Buoy, with coefficient correlations of 0.95, 0.88 and 0.83, respectively. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the WindSat SST relative to RAMA Buoy data were 0.28, 0.29 and 0.32 °C, respectively. In this study, the quality performances of the WindSat wind speed were also satisfactory, with coefficient correlation of 0.64, 0.7 and 0.58 in each RAMA buoy. The corresponding RMSEs of the wind speeds were 1.46, 1.37 and 1.63 ms −1 . Meanwhile, the WindSat precipitations reveal weak correlation with RAMA Buoy data, in particular in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Overall, the WindSat satellite data for each measurement parameters can be used to replace in-situ observation data after taking into account the measurement errors.

Assessment of the simulation of Indian Ocean Dipole in the CESM—Impacts of atmospheric physics and model resolution

AbstractThis study examines the possible impacts of coupling processes on simulations of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Emphasis is placed on the atmospheric model resolution and physics. Five experiments were conducted for this purpose, including one control run of the ocean‐only model, four coupled experiments using two different versions of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4 and CAM5) and two different resolutions. The results show that the control run could effectively simulate various features of the IOD. The coupled experiments run at the higher resolution yielded more realistic IOD period and intensity than their counterparts at the low resolution. The coupled experiments using CAM5 generally showed a better simulation skill in the tropical Indian SST climatology and phase‐locking than those using CAM4, but the wind anomalies were stronger and the IOD period were longer in the former experiments than in the latter. In all coupled experiments, the IOD intensity was much stronger than the observed intensity, which is attributable to wind‐thermocline depth feedback and thermocline depth‐subsurface temperature feedback. The CAM5 physics seems beneficial for the simulation of summer rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the CAM4 physics tends to produce less biases over the western equatorial Indian Ocean, whereas the higher resolution tends to generate unrealistically strong meridional winds. The IOD‐ENSO relationship was captured reasonably well in coupled experiments, with improvements in CAM5 relative to CAM4. However, the teleconnection of the IOD‐Indian summer monsoon and ENSO‐Indian summer monsoon was not realistically simulated in all experiments.