Impacts of Boreal Winter Monsoon Cold Surges and the Interaction with MJO on Southeast Asia Rainfall

Abstract

Abstract TRMM rainfall data from 1998–2012 are used to study the impacts and interactions of cold surges (CSs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on rainfall over Southeast Asia during the boreal winter season from November to February. CSs are identified using a new large-scale index. The frequencies of occurrences of these two large-scale events are comparable (about 20% of the days each), but the spatial pattern of impacts show differences resulting from the interactions of the general flow with the complex orography of the region. The largest impact of CSs occurs in and around the southern South China Sea as a result of increased low-level convergence on the windward side of the terrain and increased shear vorticity off Borneo that enhances the Borneo vortex. The largest impact of the MJO is in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, sheltered from CSs by Sumatra. In general CSs are significantly more likely to trigger extreme rainfall. When both systems are present, the rainfall pattern is mainly controlled by the CSs. However, the MJO makes the environment more favorable for convection by moistening the atmosphere and facilitating conditional instability, resulting in a significant increased rainfall response compared to CSs alone. In addition to the interactions of the two systems in convection, this study confirms a previously identified mechanism in which the MJO may reduce CS frequency through opposing dynamic structures.