Environmental Risk Assessment Model Research Articles

Environmental risk assessment and management of nuclear power plants based on big data analysis

In traditional research, monitoring data and samples are limited, and it is difficult to achieve ideal results in real-time monitoring and rapid response to environmental risks. By leveraging extensive environmental data gathered from nuclear power plants, the research employed machine learning methodologies for accurate feature selection and extraction of environmental parameters. An efficient environmental risk assessment model was successfully established by using a random forest algorithm. The 95% confidence interval for the area under the curve value spanned from 0.6894 to 0.9292. This provided a more dynamic and effective means for assessing and managing the environmental risks of nuclear power plants.

Environmental surveillance in Jinan city of East China (2014–2022) reveals improved air quality but remained health risks attributable to PM2.5-bound metal contaminants

PM2.5-bound metal contaminants are associated with multiple chronic diseases in human. At global level, the contamination status has not been well controlled yet. Here we report findings from a long-term air pollution surveillance in Jinan city of Shandong, China. During 2014–2022, the dynamics and trends of PM2.5-bound heavy metal contaminants were monitored in an industrial area and a downtown area. The surveillance targets included: antimony (Sb), aluminum (Al), arsenic (As), beryllium (Be), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), selenium (Se). The human exposure and health risks were calculated and we found that the health risks of most contaminants showed peak values in autumn and winter. But Al, Mn, Hg and Be were found to result in highest health risk in spring or summer in the downtown area. In the industrial area we identified 100% alarming health index >1 (ranged from 1.12 to 3.35) in autumn and winter. In winter the total non-carcinogenic HI was all above 1 (peak value 2.21). Mn and As together posed >85% non-carcinogenic risk. As and Cd were ranked as major drivers of carcinogenic risks (5.84 × 10−6 and 2.78 × 10−6). Pd and Cd both showed non-negligible environmental levels but risk assessment model for their air-exposure associated non-carcinogenic risks are not yet available. This study updates air pollution data and status for air pollution status in China. This study provides valuable 9 year long-term reference to experimental and field studies in the related fields.

An impact-based environmental risk assessment model toolbox for offshore produced water discharges

We present a novel approach to environmental risk assessment of produced water discharges based on explicit impact and probability, using a combination of transport, fate and toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models within a super-individual framework, with a probabilistic element obtained from ensemble simulations. Our approach is motivated by a need for location and species specific tools which also accounts for the dynamic nature of exposure and uptake of produced water components in the sea.Our approach is based on the well-established fate model DREAM, and accounts for time-variable exposure, considers body burden and effects for specific species and stressors, and assesses the probability of impact. Using a produced water discharge in the Barents Sea, with early life stages of spawning haddock, we demonstrate that it is possible to conduct a model-based risk assessment that highlights the effect of natural variations in environmental conditions. The benefits, limitations and potential for further improvements are discussed.

A Framework for Assessing Environmental Incidents in Coastal Areas: A Case Study in the Southeastern Coastal Area of Vietnam

As developing dynamic regions, coastal areas have a high potential for environmental incidents, especially chemical spills, which may permanently threaten livelihoods and coastal ecosystems. Establishing an appropriate methodological framework for assessing environmental incidents in coastal areas, ensuring increased predictability and minimising potential consequences is a trend of interest to scientists. In this study, the environmental risk assessment model was applied to develop a framework for assessing environmental incidents in coastal areas due to chemical spills from the mainland based on hazard, exposure and vulnerability factors (i.e., sensitivity and adaptability). Using the multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) method approach, suitable criteria, their optimal weights and the risk factors were determined. Modelling, remote sensing, and geographic information system (GIS) methods were used simultaneously for data collection, evaluation, and mapping. A case study was conducted in the coastal area of southeastern Vietnam, which comprises 27 subregions. These were classified into four environmental incident levels: low, medium, high, and extreme. Their prevalence was 70.37%, 3.70%, 7.41%, and 18.52% in the rainy season, and 74.07%, 7.41%, 7.41%, and 11.11% in the dry season, respectively. Based on analysis results and consultation with managers and experts, pertinent and practical solutions were proposed to reduce the risk of environmental incidents in subregions with high and extreme incident levels. Our results are expected to support policymakers in decision-making related to the sustainable development of the study area and complete the methodology framework for assessing environmental incidents in coastal areas due to multiple hazards.

The use of a simple model for the regulatory environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

Pesticide registration in developing countries like Ethiopia is often not supported by substantiated risk assessment procedures. In this study, we evaluated the PRIMET (Pesticide Risks in the Tropics for Man, Environment and Trade) Registration_Ethiopia_1.1 model which is a tool developed to assess the risks to non-target protection goals. All the 103 registered active ingredients (a.i.) in Ethiopia, except those used for flower and storage pest control purposes, were evaluated on their environmental risks. Data on physico-chemical characteristics, toxicity and pesticide use patterns were mined from either the information given in the dossier or public databases. Together with scenarios specifically developed for Ethiopia, these data were used to perform a risk assessment for the aquatic and terrestrial environment as well as for vertebrates including humans via contaminated drinking water exposure. Results indicated that 11 and 16% of the a.i.s are indicated to pose high acute risk and 7.3 and 11% high chronic risks for fish and aquatic invertebrates, respectively. Similarly, 5.5 and 8.7% high acute risks and 6.8 and 3.9% high chronic risks were observed for the soil ecosystem and birds, respectively. 23% of the evaluated active ingredients were indicated to be highly risky to bees when beehives are present inside the sprayed crop while 7.8% of them are highly risky when beehives are present outside the field of the sprayed crop. The fungicide metalaxyl, the herbicides acetochlor, alachlor, mecoprop and tembotrion, and the insecticides carbaryl, chlorpyrifos, diazinon and methidathion were predicted to pose high acute or chronic risks to humans or other vertebrates if surface water is used as a source of drinking water. Future studies should give emphasis on how the risk assessment results of this study can be implemented to aid the registration process.

Comparative uptake, translocation, and plant mediated transport of Tc-99, Cs-133, Np-237, and U-238 in Savannah River Site soil columns for the grass species Andropogon virginicus.

This study examines the ability of the grass species Andropogon virginicus to alter the subsurface transport and redistribution of a suite of radionuclides (99Tc, 133Cs (stable analog for 135Cs and 137Cs), 237Np, 238U) with varying chemical behaviors in a Savannah River Site soil via the use of vegetated and unvegetated soil columns. After an acclimation period, a small volume of solution containing all radionuclides was introduced into the columns via Rhizon© pore water sampling tubes. Plants were grown for an additional 4 weeks before shoots were harvested, and columns were prepared for sampling. Plant presence led to decreased radionuclide release from the columns, mainly due to radionuclide specific combinations of system hydrology differences resulting from plant transpiration as well as plant uptake. For the most mobile radionuclides, 99Tc followed by 237Np, plant presence resulted in significantly different soil concentration profiles between vegetated and unvegetated columns, including notable upward migration for 237Np in columns with plants. Additionally, plant uptake of 99Tc was the greatest of all the radionuclides, with plant tissues containing an average of 44 % of the 99Tc, while plant uptake only accounted for <2 % of 237Np and <0.5 % of 133Cs and 238U in the system. Although overall plant uptake of 133Cs and 238U were similar, the majority of 133Cs taken up by plants was associated with 133Cs already available in the aqueous phase while 238U uptake was mainly associated with the solid phase, meaning that plant activity resulted in a fraction of the native 238U being mobilized and thus, made available for plant uptake. Overall, this study quantified the influence of several plant-mediated physical and biogeochemical factors that have significant influence on radionuclide mobility and transport in this complex system which can be further utilized in future system or site-specific environmental transport and risk assessment models.

Combining the Bow-tie model and EFMEA method for environmental risk assessment in the petrochemical industry

Combining the Bow-tie model and EFMEA method for environmental risk assessment in the petrochemical industry

Genotoxic hazard and oxidative stress induced by wastewater irrigated soil with special reference to pesticides and heavy metal pollution

Due to enhancement of industrial growth and urbanization, soil contamination is increasing prominently. Therefore, it is important to examine possible adverse effects of industrial waste. Soil samples were might to be polluted with several heavy-metals and pesticides. Gas chromatographic results showed occurrence of high-level of organochlorine and organophosphate pesticides in studied soil samples. Genotoxicity of soil extracts was assessed using environmental-risk assessment models. Soil samples were extracted in hexane and dichloromethane solvents and were evaluated for genotoxic potential by prokaryotic (Ames test, plasmid nicking assay and E. coli K-12 DNA repair defective mutants) and eukaryotic (Allium cepa root chromosomal aberration and Vigna radiata seed-germination test) bioassays. Strain TA98 was found the most susceptible among soil extracts. The mutagenicity of hexane soil extract from wastewater irrigation was found to be higher than that of DCM samples in terms of mutagenic index, mutagenic potential, and induction factor for Ames strains. The damage in DNA repair defective mutants of hexane extracts were found higher compared to DCM extracts at dose of 20 μl/ml of culture. Survival in polA, lexA and recA mutants were 39%, 47% and 55% while treated with hexane extract. Allium cepa test, mitotic index was decreased in dose-dependent way and various kinds of chromosomal aberrations were found. Vigna radiata seeds germination and other parameters were also affected when treated with wastewater irrigated (WWI) soil. Oxidative stress in V. radiata roots were also showed under CLS microscope. Genotoxicity of WWI soil extract was also confirmed by plasmid nicking test. Our study provides possible explanation for the assessment of potential health and environmental hazards of the industrial region.

The Use of a Simple Model for the Regulatory Environmental Risk Assessment of Pesticides in Ethiopia

The Use of a Simple Model for the Regulatory Environmental Risk Assessment of Pesticides in Ethiopia

Assessing Heavy Metal Contamination Risk in Soil and Water in the Core Water Source Area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, China

The Middle Route Project of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) is a national-level water source protection zone and the ecological safety of its water quality and surrounding soil is of great significance. In this study, heavy metals in the surface water and topsoil in the core water source area were quantitatively analyzed using a geographic information system (GIS) and geostatistical techniques combined with environmental pollution and ecological risk assessment models to determine their environmental contamination levels, ecological risk levels, and spatial distribution patterns. Cd was identified as an essential factor responsible for the overall slight heavy metal pollution in the topsoil layer. Heavy metal contamination in surface water was primarily driven by alert-level concentrations of Hg and was consistently distributed in areas with high concentrations of Hg in the topsoil. Applying the potential ecological risk index (RI) revealed two key results. First, surface water showed no ecological risk. The concentrations of heavy metals in surface water met the goals set by relevant authorities in China. Second, overall, the topsoil was at low ecological risk, with a spatial pattern primarily influenced by Cd and Hg. Some heavy metals might have similar pollution sources and originate from human activities such as industrial activities, mining and smelting, and pesticide and chemical fertilizer applications. The study is important for improving the soil and water ecology in the reservoir area and ensuring the northward diversion of high-quality water. In addition, it provides a sound basis for making decisions about local heavy-metal remediation and treatment projects.

Antibiotic-Resistant Genes and Bacteria as Evolving Contaminants of Emerging Concerns (e-CEC): Is It Time to Include Evolution in Risk Assessment?

The pressing issue of the abundance of antibiotic resistance genes and resistant bacteria in the environment (ARGs and ARB, respectively) requires procedures for assessing the risk to health. The chemo-centric environmental risk assessment models identify hazard(s) in a dose–response manner, obtaining exposure, toxicity, risk, impact and policy. However, this risk assessment approach based on ARGs/ARB evaluation from a quantitative viewpoint shows high unpredictability because ARGs/ARB cannot be considered as standard hazardous molecules: ARB duplicate and ARGs evolve within a biological host. ARGs/ARB are currently listed as Contaminants of Emerging Concern (CEC). In light of such characteristics, we propose to define ARGs/ARB within a new category of evolving CEC (or e-CEC). ARGs/ARB, like any other evolving determinants (e.g., viruses, bacteria, genes), escape environmental controls. When they do so, just one molecule left remaining at a control point can form the origin of a new dangerous and selection-responsive population. As a consequence, perhaps it is time to acknowledge this trait and to include evolutionary concepts within modern risk assessment of e-CEC. In this perspective we analyze the evolutionary responses most likely to influence risk assessment, and we speculate on the means by which current methods could measure evolution. Further work is required to implement and exploit such experimental procedures in future risk assessment protocols.

Development & application of Conceptual Framework Model (CFM) for environmental risk assessment of contaminated lands.

Dumping sites are the most common types of contaminated lands as they pollute the environment. Environmental management of contaminated sites cannot be delivered effectively and efficiently without robust holistic & integrated risk assessment. Previous studies reveal the absence of a risk assessment model that holistically integrates all essential factors progressively and categorically. The study aimed to develop a holistic & integrated Conceptual Framework Model (CFM) for environmental risk assessment and to apply developed CFM on real-world existing Mahmood Booti Open Dumping Site (MBODS). CFM developed in this study had three main tiers i.e., baseline study, hazard identification & exposure assessment, and risk estimation. For the application of CFM, baseline data were collected and assessed. Water, leachate & soil samples were collected within 1000 m across the site and analyzed for physio-chemical parameters and heavy metals to estimate risk. Results of applied CFM depicted that Physico-chemical analysis of leachate, water, and soil revealed significant pollution levels. Heavy metal analysis exhibited that Ni, Pb, Mn, and Cr levels exceeded the allowable limits of the “World Health Organization” in leachate, water, and soil samples. It also revealed the existence of metals at the source (dumping site itself), pathway, and receptor of the dumping site. Eir value for Ni, Pb and Cd from the study area manifested a serious probable risk to ecological integrities. Results for PERI from dumpsite demonstrated a serious ecological risk. It can be concluded that although Mahmood Booti dumping site has been at post-closure stage, it is a momentous source of hazardous toxic contaminants to the nearby inhabitants. The work presented in this paper may reproduce repeatedly to create site-specific risk assessment models of other contaminated lands in a cost-effective, consistent and cohesive manner. Application of CFM at Mahmood Booti Dumping site described detailed risk assessment which helps further in risk management.

Environmental risk assessment and comprehensive index model of disaster loss for COVID-19 transmission.

This paper focuses on the study of environmental risk assessment and comprehensive index model of disaster loss for COVID-19 transmission. Considering the five environmental vectors of carrier vulnerability, environmental instability of pregnancy and disaster, intensity of disaster-causing factors, disaster prevention and mitigation capacity and emergency prevention and control capacity and its 38 indicators, the correlation coefficient matrix and principal component expressions of each vector are established by principal component analysis, respectively, and the index model of each vector is established on the basis. Then, considering the index models of these five vectors, we established the disaster loss composite index model, which was used to conduct environmental risk assessment and disaster loss composite index analysis of the transmission of COVID-19 in Hubei Province during the period of January 21, 2020 to March 18, 2020. The empirical study showed that: (1) the risk index peaked from January 21 to January 23; (2) the risk index was at a low but volatile level from January 24 to March 14; (3) the risk index rose again slightly from March 15 and rose to another peak on March 16. These fluctuating, smooth and fluctuating processes of the comprehensive index of disaster losses of COVID-19 in Hubei Province are basically stable and consistent with the actual situation of the virus outbreak in the early stage, isolation and prevention and control in the middle stage, and resumption of work and production in the late stage. The study in this paper provides a scientific decision-making reference for the prevention and control of COVID-19 as well as emergency prevention and control measures.

ERA Acute – Extending an Environmental Risk Assessment Model to the Marginal Ice Zone

ERA Acute is a globally applicable method and software tool for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of acute oil spills (Stephansen et. al, 2017a and 2017b; Libre et al, 2018), and is to be implemented as the new industry standard ERA methodology on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). This paper describes the proposed adaptation and further development of the established ERA Acute method to enhance the functionality for ERA of acute oil spills in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). Due to the highly dynamic nature of the MIZ, the pilot ERA Acute MIZ proposes to use high temporal resolution data on ice concentrations and presence of Valued Ecosystem Components (VECs) in newly developed functions to calculate impacts in the MIZ. Based on literature and preliminary sensitivity tests; parameter values and risk functions have been proposed for the MIZ (ice concentrations in intervals between 10–80 %). The functions reflect that presence of ice reduces the available space for surface activities; foraging, diving, entering and exiting the water and concentrates the oil in the same space between ice floes. These functions will now be further revised, tested and implemented in a software tool. This paper presents the proposed ERA Acute MIZ methodology.

Environmental Risk Assessment of Subway Station Construction to Achieve Sustainability Using the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and Set Pair Analysis

Environmental risks have a significant impact on the sustainability of subway station construction projects. This paper proposes an environmental risk assessment model based on the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IFAHP) and set pair analysis (SPA) to deal with the ambiguity and uncertainty in the assessment. An index system for environmental risk assessment is established based on a literature review and the rough set method. Subsequently, the IFAHP is used to calculate the indicator weights to describe the certainty, uncertainty, and hesitation degree of expert decisions in the weighting calculation by means of affiliation, nonaffiliation, and hesitation. Finally, SPA, which can deal with the randomness, uncertainty, and ambiguity of the indicators, is used to assess environmental risk. A case study of two typical stations (Lushan Avenue Station and Huilong Road West Station) of Metro Line 11 in Chengdu, China, is conducted. The case study results are consistent with field surveys. The evaluation results of the proposed model are more objective and reasonable than those of the traditional analytic hierarchy process, the entropy weight method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, grey correlation analysis, and technique for order of preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS). The research results prove the scientific validity and superiority of the proposed model.

Risk assessment and ecotoxicological effects of leachates extracted from industrial district soils of Nanjing, China.

With the intensification of industrial development and urbanization, soil pollution is increasingly prominent. Therefore, the potential adverse effects caused by industrial activities need to be investigated. In this study, nine soil samples were collected from the industrial district of Nanjing, China, and the heavy metal concentrations were analyzed. Ambient severity of health (ASI) and ambient severity of ecology (ASII) caused by heavy metals in soil extracts were also evaluated via the multi-media environmental goals (MEG). The environmental risk assessment model was used to assess the health risk of soil extracts. The toxicity of soil extracts was diagnosed for wheat and Vicia faba. The results indicate that the contents of heavy metals were significantly different among the nine soil samples and mass concentration of heavy metals were as followed: Pb > Mn > As > Zn > Cd. Except for CK and S9, the total health impact of all sampling sites were greater than 1. Also, the total ecological hazard degrees of the five heavy metals were all greater than 1, which showed that the soil extracts were harmful to human health and ecological environment. According to the risk characterization model, the carcinogen risk of soil extracts was 1 to 10 orders of magnitude higher than that of non-carcinogens. Drinking water intake was the most direct and primary exposure route. In addition, the ecotoxicological results indicated that with the increase of heavy metal concentration, the activity of amylase (AMS) decreased, while the activity of peroxide (POD) increased, indicating that the soil extracts were toxic to V. faba. The micronucleus rates of V. faba root tips in the sampling soils were significantly higher compared with the control group, reflecting the higher genotoxicity. Our study provides theoretical support for the evaluation of potential health and ecological risks in this industrial district.

Seasonal Distribution Characteristics and Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Surface Water of Qingjiang River

In order to assess the health risks of heavy metals in surface water of Qingjiang River, surface water samples were taken at designed cross-sections of the river and analyzed for Cr, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, As, and Mn. Health risks from these heavy metals for adults and children in wet and dry seasons were compared by water environmental health risk assessment model of the USEPA. It found that the main excessive element is Mn, concentrating in the Danshui, Yantouxi, and Pingluoxi, the slightly excessive element is As, the concentration of Mn was above national standard, and it mainly distributed in Danshui, Yantouxi, and Pingluoxi, As was slightiy over the standard, and it concentrated in Wujiahe, The content of heavy metals during wet season were all higher than those during dry season. Cr, Cu, Zn, and Cd are mainly originated from the nature, Pb and As are separately mainly originated from traffic and agriculture, Mn originated from mining mainly in the downstream, while it has natural source from upper to middle. The health risks of heavy metals in surface water to adults and children in wet season are higher than those in dry season. The main health risk area was the midstream. As was the highest health risk element and children were the most preventive group. Specially, people in towns who drink the water from midstream should pay more attention.

Risk Assessment and Countermeasures of Heavy Metals in Drinking Water Environment of Guizhou Province

The quality of drinking water is closely related to the health condition of the population. In order to effectively assess the heavy metal environment of drinking water in Guizhou Province, this paper first analyzed the distribution characteristics of heavy metals in drinking water, and then used the environmental health risk assessment model recommended by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) to investigate and analyze the toxic and hazardous substances in drinking water in Guizhou Province in 2019 to assess the health risks of heavy metals in drinking water. The survey results showed that the cancer-causing health risks of drinking water in Guizhou Province exceeded the EPA evaluation standards, while the non-cancer-causing health risks were much lower than the evaluation standards. Finally, for the heavy metal environment of drinking water in Guizhou province, this paper proposes corresponding response strategies from two perspectives of water quality monitoring and government supervision.

Relationship between MEG3 gene polymorphism and risk of gastric cancer in Chinese population with high incidence of gastric cancer.

Objective: Gastric cancer is the most common gastrointestinal malignancy in China and results from a combination of genetic and environmental factors. The present study was conducted to investigate the relationship between long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) materally expressed gene 3 (MEG3) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and the risk of gastric cancer and to construct a genetic-environmental risk assessment model. Methods: A case–control study was conducted to include 474 patients with gastric cancer diagnosed by clinical and pathological examination and 543 healthy physical examination subjects. Blood samples, general demographic data and behavioral lifestyle of the subjects were collected. The TaqMan real-time PCR method was used for testing the genotypes of MEG3 rs7158663 and rs10132552. Results: The A allele at the rs7158663 loci of MEG3 was found to be risk factor for gastric cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 1.41, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.14–1.74, P=0.002). Yet, no significant association between rs10132552 polymorphisms and gastric cancer was observed. Drinking, tea drinking and preserved food eating were risk factors for gastric cancer (P<0.05). A genetic–environmental risk assessment model was established by using the logistic regression model to include MEG3 rs7158663, drinking, tea drinking, and preserved food eating. With the increase in risk score (RS), the risk of gastric cancer increased substantially (P<0.05). And the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.745, which indicates a high diagnostic value. Conclusions: MEG3 rs7158663 might be associated with the risk of gastric cancer; the diagnostic ability of genetic–environmental risk assessment model for gastric cancer is better.

Pollution and Ecological Risk Assessment of Potentially Toxic Elements in Natural Waters from the Ameka Metallogenic District in Southeastern Nigeria

In mining areas, several potentially toxic elements (PTEs) are often released in excess quantities into the ecosystem; thereby, predisposing both human beings and the environment to pollution risks. The current paper investigated the pollution status and ecological risks of PTEs in groundwater resources from Ameka and its environs, southeast Nigeria, using several numerical and chemometric models. Both hand-dug wells and borehole samples were analyzed. The order of abundance of the PTEs in the waters was Co > Se > Cd > Ni > Mn > Fe > Zn > As > Pb > Cu, for both hand-dug wells and borehole samples. Environmental pollution risk assessment models such as the contamination factor, contamination degree, pollution index, pollution load index, Nemerow integrated pollution index, and modified heavy metal pollution index showed that 100% of the samples were highly laden with PTEs. Similarly, the ecological risk assessment showed that 100% of the samples pose very high ecological risks. Furthermore, the water quality index and integrated water quality index jointly revealed that all the analyzed groundwater sources in this mining area were unsuitable for human consumption. Chemometric tools such as factor analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to establish the inter-parameter relationships. It was realized that both geogenic and anthropogenic factors are responsible for the enrichment of the PTEs in the natural waters. Therefore, based on the overall findings of this study, adequate treatment of the polluted waters before drinking is highly recommended.