Environmental risk assessment and comprehensive index model of disaster loss for COVID-19 transmission

BackgroundNeed to a simple, available, accurate, comprehensive, and valid indicator is felt to assess thermal effects. Therefore, the present study was aimed to develop and validate the environmental heat strain risk assessment (EHSRA) index using structural equation modeling (SEM) based on empirical relations.MethodsThis cross-sectional study was performed on 201 male workers in environments with various climatic conditions. The heart rate and tympanic temperature of the individuals were monitored at times of 30, 60, and 90 min after beginning the work. At these times, values of dry temperature, wet temperature, globe temperature, and air velocity were also measured and metabolism rate and clothing thermal insulation value were estimated. At the end, a theoretical model was depicted in AMOS software and obtained coefficients were applied to develop a novel index. The scores of this indicator were categorized into four risk levels via ROC curves and validate using linear regression analysis.ResultsIndirect effect coefficients of the globe temperature, dry temperature, wet temperature, air velocity, metabolism, and clothing thermal insulation variables on the tympanic temperature were computed by 0.77, 0.75, 0.69, 0.24, 0.49, and 0.39, respectively. These coefficients were applied to develop the index. Optimal cut-off points of boundaries between risk levels included 12.02, 15.88, and 17.56. The results showed that the EHSRA index justified 75% of the variations of the tympanic temperature (R2 = 0.75).ConclusionsThe novel index possesses appropriate validity. It was suggested that this indicator is applied and validated in various environments in the next studies.

Many plant species with agronomic potential have been introduced for livestock forage and have subsequently become weeds of natural ecosystems, or ‘environmental weeds’. Stringent border quarantine procedures introduced by Australia in 1997 ensure few high weed risk species are now imported into the country; however, there are no protocols for assessing and managing weed risk in use on a national scale ‘post-border’ (i.e. once a plant species is in the country). Environmental weed risk management in forage improvement programs aims to minimise the risk that new species and cultivar introductions will be invasive in natural ecosystems. We describe an environmental weed risk assessment (EWRA) model specifically aimed at assessing the weed potential of exotic and native forage species. The EWRA model predicts and ranks species for weed risk by assessing invasiveness, impacts and potential distribution. Assessments are based on published evidence, experimental observations and intuitive responses from experienced pasture researchers, in collaboration with weed experts. This model specifically addresses the need for environmental weed risk management in forage improvement programs.

Environmental risk has become an area of major concern and research, drawing special attention. This study on the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of Dar es Salaam Municipal Solid Waste comes at a time when the Government of Tanzania is becoming increasingly concerned about dealing with high levels of pollution from municipal solid waste (MSW). The paper employed the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model to establish an environmental risk indicator system and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate and analyze risk values, based on the actual situation of MSW in the city of Dar es Salaam. It lists several measures that have been taken in response to the current significantly high levels of pollution, which have assisted in maintaining the environmental risk index (ERI) at a medium level (0.4–0.6) during the period from 2006–2017. However, these measures have not been adequate enough to manage the external pressure. The ERI has been increasing gradually, calling for timely formulation of demand-specific waste management policies to reduce the possibility of reaching the critical point in near future. With the use of the DPSIR model for ERA, this study has become highly valuable, providing empirical justification to reduce environmental risk from MSW, which is one of the main sources of environmental pollution in the urban areas of developing countries.

This thesis presents the development, evaluation, and application of a generalized toxicokinetic model for mixtures of chemicals. Humans are exposed to mixtures of chemicals that are found together in multiple exposure media (soil, food, and air), and at levels that have been shown to cause adverse effects due to toxic interactions. Although several physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models exist for different environmental chemicals, using them in assessing risks to co-occurring contaminants is often impractical. This is especially true for the case of toxic metals, where half-lives in the human body span days (e.g. arsenic), months (e.g. methylmercury), and decades (e.g. lead, cadmium). Several differences in the formulation of these models exist with respect to (a) physiological structure (e.g. body tissue volumes and blood flow ratios), (b) general modeling assumptions (e.g. for transport and transformation of the chemicals within the body), and (c) exposure-relevant parameters. Since assumptions made for one metal or metal compound can be incompatible with the assumptions made for another metal, current formulations are inadequate for use in assessing health risks from mixtures of toxic metals. Further complications arise when assessing risks of both metals and nonmetals, which also interact at the toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic levels. The issues of consistent representation of physiology and chemical interactions across different classes of chemicals such as mixtures of metals and mixtures of metals and organics are addressed through the development of a Generalized Toxicokinetic Model for Mixtures of chemicals (GTMM). The GTMM resolves inconsistencies by standardizing the physiology across all models, and by allowing simulations of different models to be done simultaneously. It has been implemented as a set of modules in Matlab and as a user-oriented graphical interface in Matlab-Simulink. The GTMM has been evaluated with multiple existing PBTK models for individual chemicals, and the results demonstrate that the GTMM produces identical results as the original published formulations. Subsequently, the GTMM has been applied to different problems relevant to population risk assessment.

An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) Model is adopted to evaluate the environmental risk associated with the construction of Oil/Gas Processing Facilities in coastal areas. The Model was originally developed by El Sherbiny et al (2006) addressing the construction of tourism projects along the Red Sea coast of Egypt. The model is based on a specially designed network diagram that describes the intermediate links between construction activities and existing ecological/marine receptors. It was designed using a spreadsheet program as a series of hyperlinked spreadsheets navigated by the user. The proposed model estimates the risk of causing environmental harm to existing ecological receptors, while considering the cumulative effect of different stressors and impacts. It combines Risk Assessment (RA) and Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) into a unified analysis process. The purpose of such process is neither to produce the most quantitatively sophisticated estimate of a particular risk nor to provide the most comprehensive list of possible environmental impacts. It rather aims at producing a rational and reasonable tool that aids in decision-making. The model helps in bridging the gap between the acknowledged environmental impacts and generated risk on existing marine/coastal ecological receptors. It assists the project team, in collaboration with the EIA team, in the analysis of different design alternatives and mitigation measures. Based on the model results, activities responsible for high-risk levels could be tracked backwards for better management, where the effect of different mitigation measures could be investigated. Although environmental impacts associated with Oil/Gas projects are generally known, the extent to which ecological/marine receptors are disturbed is still vague. The proposed model contributes significantly to bridging this gap by quantifying associated environmental risk.

The use of fish embryos is not regulated by current legislations on animal welfare and is therefore considered as a refinement, if not replacement of animal experiments. Fish embryos represent an attractive model for environmental risk assessment of chemicals since they offer the possibility to perform small-scale, high-throughput analyses. Beyond their application for determining the acute toxicity, fish embryos are also excellent models for studies aimed at the understanding of toxic mechanisms and the indication of possible adverse and long-term effects. Therefore, we have reviewed the scientific literature in order to indicate alternative applications of the fish embryo model with focus on embryos of the zebrafish. The analysis of the mode of action is important for the risk assessment of environmental chemicals and can assist in indicating adverse and long-term effects. Toxicogenomics present a promising approach to unravel the potential mechanisms. Therefore, we present examples of the use of zebrafish embryos to study the effect of chemicals on gene and protein patterns, and the potential implications of differential expression for toxicity. The possible application of other methods, such as kinase arrays or metabolomic profiling, is also highlighted. Furthermore, we show examples of toxicokinetic studies (bioconcentration, ABC transporters) and discuss limitations that might be caused by the potential barrier function of the chorion. Finally, we demonstrate that biomarkers of endocrine disruption, immune modulation, genotoxicity or chronic toxicity could be used as indicators or predictors of sub-acute and long-term effects. The zebrafish embryo represents a model with an impressive range of possible applications in environmental sciences. Particularly, the adaptation of molecular, system-wide approaches from biomedical research is likely to extend its use in ecotoxicology. Challenges for future research are (1) the identification of further suitable molecular markers as indicators of the mode of action, (2) the establishment of strong links between (molecular) effects in short-term assays in embryos and long-term (toxic) effects on individuals, (3) the definition of limitations of the model and (4) the development of tests that can be used for regulatory purposes.

An environmental risk assessment model was developed to evaluate the environmental risk associated with the construction of tourism projects along the Red Sea coast of Egypt. The model estimates the risk of causing environmental harm to existing ecological receptors, while considering the cumulative effect of different stressors and impacts. It combines risk assessment and environmental impact assessment (EIA) into a unified analysis process. It assists planners, cooperating with the EIA team, in the analysis of different planning alternatives, construction methods, and mitigation measures. It also assists decision makers in evaluating the submitted EIAs before issuing construction permits. The model is based on a specially designed network diagram that describes the intermediate links between construction activities and existing ecological receptors. Based on the model results, activities responsible for high risk levels could be tracked backward for better management, where the effect of different mitigation measures could be investigated.

Development & application of Conceptual Framework Model (CFM) for environmental risk assessment of contaminated lands.

An improved typhoon risk model coupled with mitigation capacity and its relationship to disaster losses

Veterinary Medicinal Products (VMPs) are used in intensive aquaculture production to treat a wide range of bacterial and parasitic infestations. Their release into the environment poses concerns regarding their potential ecotoxicological risks to aquatic ecosystems, which need to be evaluated making use of appropriate Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) schemes and models. This study presents an overview of the major aquaculture production systems in Europe, the VMPs most commonly used, and the environmental quality standards and regulatory procedures available for their ERA. Furthermore, it describes the state‐of‐the‐art on the development of environmental models capable of assessing the fate, exposure, ecotoxicological effects and risks of VMPs in aquaculture production systems, and discusses their level of development and implementation within European aquaculture. This study shows that the use of environmental models in regulatory ERA is somewhat limited in many European countries. Major efforts have been dedicated to assess the fate and exposure of antiparasitic compounds in salmonid cage systems, particularly in Scotland, while models and scenarios for assessing dispersal of antimicrobials, in general, and antiparasitic compounds in the Mediterranean as well as in Scandinavian regions are less available. On the other hand, the use of ecological models for assessing the effects and risks of VMPs is almost absent. Recommendations are provided to improve the chemical exposure and effect assessments and the ecological realism of the modelling outcomes, paying special attention to the protection goals set for the regulatory ERA of VMPs in Europe.

Of late non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs)-mediated gene silencing is an influential tool deliberately deployed to negatively regulate the expression of targeted genes. In addition to the widely employed small interfering RNA (siRNA)-mediated gene silencing approach, other variants like artificial miRNA (amiRNA), miRNA mimics, and artificial transacting siRNAs (tasiRNAs) are being explored and successfully deployed in developing non-coding RNA-based genetically modified plants. The ncRNA-based gene manipulations are typified with mobile nature of silencing signals, interference from viral genome-derived suppressor proteins, and an obligation for meticulous computational analysis to prevaricate any inadvertent effects. In a broad sense, risk assessment inquiries for genetically modified plants based on the expression of ncRNAs are competently addressed by the environmental risk assessment (ERA) models, currently in vogue, designed for the first generation transgenic plants which are based on the expression of heterologous proteins. Nevertheless, transgenic plants functioning on the foundation of ncRNAs warrant due attention with respect to their unique attributes like off-target or non-target gene silencing effects, small RNAs (sRNAs) persistence, food and feed safety assessments, problems in detection and tracking of sRNAs in food, impact of ncRNAs in plant protection measures, effect of mutations etc. The role of recent developments in sequencing techniques like next generation sequencing (NGS) and the ERA paradigm of the different countries in vogue are also discussed in the context of ncRNA-based gene manipulations.

In recent years, various types of unexpected environmental accidents occurred frequently in China, which had caused great harm to economy and social development of China. The environmental risk assessment (ERA) model was built based on the related factors was described. Take the case of the proposed project of Cangzhou-Qiantongzhen freeway, the environmental risk was assessed by ERA model, and the corresponding countermeasures and emergency plans were put forward in the construction and operation period. The results show that the probability of water pollution in the sensitive sections along the freeway is 0.000927 to 0.011563times per year.

Glucocorticoid activity detected by in vivo zebrafish assay and in vitro glucocorticoid receptor bioassay at environmental relevant concentrations.

ABSTRACTRegional environmental risk assessment has been a significant means of environmental management and decision-making. To assess the regional integrated environmental risk at a nationwide scale, a new index system named the Hazard, Intensity, Vulnerability, and Effectiveness (HIVE) model was designed and evolved from previous researches. The HIVE model consisted of a relatively complete framework with accessible indexes related to environment and social economy, and it considered different risk sources, pathways, and receptors as well as the influence of the risk control. As an important segment of the assessment process, a simple gridding information diffusion method was also proposed to assess the diffusion effect of risk factors in nationwide rivers. Taking China as a case study, this study calculated the environmental risk value of every sub-unit. Through the clustering function of Statistical Package for Social Sciences and the visual representation of a geographic information system, the study area was divided into nine zones that were visualized on maps according to their different risk levels and risk characteristics. This study also identified the dominant factors of each zone, which could provide the foundation for regional environmental management. Moreover, the results implied some significant correlations between risk system components and the regional social economy in China.

The environmental risk presented by "down-the-drain" chemicals to receiving rivers in large urban areas has received increasing attention in recent years. Geo-referenced Regional Environmental Assessment Tool for European Rivers (GREAT-ER) is a typical river catchment model that has been specifically developed for the risk assessment of these chemicals and applied in many European rivers. By utilizing the new version of the model, GREAT-ER 3.0, which is the first completely open source software for worldwide application, this study represents the first attempt to conduct an application of GREAT-ER in the Wenyu River of China. Aquatic exposure simulation and an environmental risk assessment of nonylphenol (NP) and its environmental precursor nonylphenol ethoxylates (NPEOs) were conducted effectively by GREAT-ER model, since NP is one of typical endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and its environmental precursor NPEOs as a "down-the-drain" chemical are extensively used in China. In the result, the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of NP and NPEOs in the water of Wenyu River were 538 and 4320 ng/L, respectively, at the regional scale, and 1210 and 8990 ng/L, respectively, at the local scale. From the results profile of the RCR, the combination of high emissions from large STPs with insufficient dilution of the river caused the high RCR. The PECs of NP in the sediment were in the range of 216.8-8218.3 ng/g (dry weight), which was consistent with the available monitoring data. The study showed the worldwide applicability and reliability of GREAT-ER as a river catchment model for the risk assessment of these chemicals and also revealed the general environmental risks presented by NP and NPEOs in the Wenyu River catchment in Beijing due to the extensive use of these chemicals. The results suggest that specific control or treatment measures are probably warranted for these chemicals to reduce their discharge in major cities.