Environmental Risk Assessment Model Research Articles

Fire Impact Tool- Measuring the impact of fire suppression operations on the environment

In Sweden the responsibility for environmental damage when emergency responders are called to an incident is increasingly focussing on the responders. The problem is that most incident response personnel do not have the training and expertise to assess the environmental consequences of their suppression operations. The Fire Impact Tool was developed for training responders about how fire effluents and suppression media affect air, surface/groundwater and soil. The tool has three interdependent parts: fire models (for vehicles and enclosures), an environmental risk assessment (ERA) model for local impacts, and a life cycle assessment (LCA) model for global impacts. Users can create two scenarios that are compared with a reference case in which responders arrive at the incident and prevent the fire from spreading beyond the vehicle or enclosure but do not suppress the fire. The Fire Impact Tool is not intended for use during an actual fire incident. This work does not answer every question for every possible fire scenario, but it does provide a framework for deeper, broader, more comprehensive training and pre-planning. This is a necessary step toward a future in which responders are prepared to make informed decisions about firefighting strategies and tactics that include environmental consequences.

A system dynamics simulation model for environmental risk assessment at strategic level in power plants

In a constantly changing business environment, a systematic approach is needed for risk assessment in order to allow for a more long-term strategic view. The System Dynamics (SD) modelling technique can be applied as an effective approach to understand the dynamic behaviour of a system over time. This understanding can be subsequently explicitly reflected on policies, strategic plans and operational procedures. This paper presents a SD model to assess environmental risks in power plants. The model helps to understand the long-term behaviour of the system under study. A questionnaire and focus group interviews have been conducted to understand the relationship among various risks. The SD model has been validated with two power plants in the Middle East. The developed model highlighted the impact of environmental risks on the performance of power plants. Although the SD model focuses on risk assessment in power plants, it can be easily adapted to other industry sectors.

A system dynamics simulation model for environmental risk assessment at strategic level in power plants

In a constantly changing business environment, a systematic approach is needed for risk assessment in order to allow for a more long-term strategic view. The System Dynamics (SD) modelling technique can be applied as an effective approach to understand the dynamic behaviour of a system over time. This understanding can be subsequently explicitly reflected on policies, strategic plans and operational procedures. This paper presents a SD model to assess environmental risks in power plants. The model helps to understand the long-term behaviour of the system under study. A questionnaire and focus group interviews have been conducted to understand the relationship among various risks. The SD model has been validated with two power plants in the Middle East. The developed model highlighted the impact of environmental risks on the performance of power plants. Although the SD model focuses on risk assessment in power plants, it can be easily adapted to other industry sectors.

Environmental risk mapping of physical cultural heritage using an unmanned aerial remote sensing system: A case study of the Huang-Wei monument in Kinmen, Taiwan

Abstract Many studies have discussed the multiple risks to cultural heritage sites, however literature that discusses the threat of soil moisture penetrating into physical cultural heritage sites are extremely rare. In this paper, an unmanned aerial remote sensing system (UARSS) was employed to acquire images of the surroundings of the Huang-Wei monument, a physical cultural heritage site in Kinmen, Taiwan, which was coupled with a soil moisture examination in situ to produce thematic maps of soil moisture. The relationships among weather factors, including temperature, relative humidity, wind, and precipitation, as well as terrain factors, were analyzed to establish an environmental risk assessment model. A spatial analysis based on the environmental risk assessment model was implemented in a GIS environment to produce environmental risk maps for the Huang-Wei monument. A field survey demonstrated that the environmental risk maps were reliable and displayed the potential environmental risks to the Huang-Wei monument.

Geochemical baseline establishment, environmental impact and health risk assessment of vanadium in lake sediments, China

Lakes are essential water resources in China and their water quality is vital to the sustainability. However, the geochemical processes of trace elements, especially those of seldom-monitored trace elements, have not been adequately studied. Here, the regional geochemical baseline (RGB) of vanadium (V) was established using cumulative frequency and normalization methods. Then, the RGB was applied to quantitatively calculate the anthropogenic contribution rate in sediments of the Poyang Lake (PYL), which is the largest freshwater lake in China. The pollution level and ecological risk of V were evaluated using the geoaccumulation index (Igeo) and potential ecological risk index (EI) with respect to three different reference values, namely local soil background values (BV), the RGB, and the median value of V concentrations. The health risk of V accumulation in residents through fish consumption during sediment resuspension was assessed by combining the environmental impact assessment model and health risk assessment model. The mean concentration of V in PYL sediments was 94.37 mg/kg (33.80–148.53 mg/kg), which was slightly higher than the levels in stream sediments in China, but lower than the local BV. The calculated RGB was slightly higher than the average V content in PYL sediments, but similar to the local BV. The average anthropogenic contribution rate was calculated as 11.48%, demonstrating low anthropogenic influence. Moreover, the result of Igeo and EI showed that V in PYL sediments was uncontaminated and posed a low ecological risk. In addition, based on the calculation by the two models, the human health risk result (target hazard quotient <1) indicated that the average human health risk from fish consumption due to sediment resuspension was negligible.

Human Health Risk Assessment of Trihalomethanes through Ingestion of Drinking Water in Shenzhen, China

The potential health hazards of trihalomethanes (THMs) contamination in drinking water in Shenzhen were estimated. The concentrations of THMs in drinking water from 13 centralized water supply systems were determined from Jan 2015 to Dec 2016 in Shenzhen. The water environmental health risk assessment model recommended by USEPA was established based on the water monitoring data of THMs. Preliminary health risks of THMs through ingestion of drinking water were assessed. The median concentrations of THMs, TCM, DBCM, BDCM and TBM in drinking water were 37.0, 24.5, 2.3, 7.8 and 0.3 μg/L respectively. The values of carcinogenic risks for THMs, TCM, DBCM, BDCM, and TBM to the individual per year in drinking water were 4.52 × 10-5, 2.38 × 10-5, 6.07 × 10-6, 1.52 × 10-5 and 7.45 × 10-8 respectively. The values of non-carcinogenic risks for THMs, TCM, DBCM, BDCM and TBM to the individual per year in drinking water were 9.32 × 10-2, 7.68 × 10-2, 3.61 × 10-3, and 1.23 × 10-2 and 4.71 × 10-4 respectively. The health risk caused by THMs to the individual through ingestion of drinking water was in the order of TCM, BDCM, DBCM and TBM from high to low. The carcinogenic risks induced by THMs through ingestion of drinking water are acceptable with tolerable value offered by USEPA (1.0 × 10-6 - 1.0 × 10-4), but reached to the tolerable value (5.0 × 10-5) by International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The non-carcinogenic risk of THMs is tolerable (HI < 1).

Evaluating environmental risk assessment models for nanomaterials according to requirements along the product innovation Stage-Gate process

A quantitative approach to matching existing environmental assessment models to the needs of stakeholders at different stages during innovation of nanomaterials and nano-enabled products.

Environmental Risk Indices for Municipal Solid Waste in the City of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: Assessing Pressure-Response Relationship

This paper based on the previous study which used DPSIR model and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to assess environmental risk from Municipal Solid Waste in the city of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, by Kazuva, et al., (2018) The DPSIR Model for Environmental Risk Assessment of Municipal Solid Waste in Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 15(8). In that study the Comprehensive Environmental Risk Index-(CERI) was categorised into five major indices of drivers-pressure-state-impact-response, as simulated from the model. Despite that each index contributed significantly to the CERI, pressure and response indices have been found with peculiar features. While pressure index showed the greatest influence to the alarming state of environmental pollution, response index found with dictating power to the trend of other indices. Therefore, this study intends to present the relationship between pressure and response indices from the established environmental risk indicator system, by using the experts’ questionnaires method and the AHP. Analysis was done by computing trend of the two indices in the period of 12 years (2006-2017). Literally, pressure and response indices have been found with opposing tendencies for the entire period of assessment. The response index with all its subordinates have continued found with a controlling power over pressure index. It slows down the risk value for pressure index, thus withholding the ERI from reaching the critical point (>0.8). However, this power has not been effective and sufficient to suppress the entire pressure which was constantly increasing in upward trend, somewhat threatening ecological environment and human health in urban setting.

The DPSIR Model for Environmental Risk Assessment of Municipal Solid Waste in Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania

Environmental risk has become an area of major concern and research, drawing special attention. This study on the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of Dar es Salaam Municipal Solid Waste comes at a time when the Government of Tanzania is becoming increasingly concerned about dealing with high levels of pollution from municipal solid waste (MSW). The paper employed the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model to establish an environmental risk indicator system and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate and analyze risk values, based on the actual situation of MSW in the city of Dar es Salaam. It lists several measures that have been taken in response to the current significantly high levels of pollution, which have assisted in maintaining the environmental risk index (ERI) at a medium level (0.4–0.6) during the period from 2006–2017. However, these measures have not been adequate enough to manage the external pressure. The ERI has been increasing gradually, calling for timely formulation of demand-specific waste management policies to reduce the possibility of reaching the critical point in near future. With the use of the DPSIR model for ERA, this study has become highly valuable, providing empirical justification to reduce environmental risk from MSW, which is one of the main sources of environmental pollution in the urban areas of developing countries.

Site selection for municipal solid waste landfill considering environmental health risks

The selection of a suitable site for a new municipal solid waste landfill is an effective means to reduce harm to human health and alleviate environmental pollution from its source. However, the current assessment method of potential harm to humans is not scientific and objective during the process of landfill site selection. The fuzzy age-sectioned groundwater environmental health risk assessment model was proposed based on the health risk assessment method of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the coupled methods of triangular fuzzy number and age section assignment. The methodology was applied as a case study to the groundwater environmental health risk assessment of a planned selection of a domestic waste landfill site in northwestern China. Results showed that the comprehensive health risk value of Site 1 is 66, whereas that of Site 2 is 69, Site 1 is better than Site 2, recommended Site1 as the right location. In contrast with the comman methods, this model could not only make the best recommendation scientifically and efficiently, but could also accurately calculate risk level, thereby providing more accurate assessment information to decision makers during the process of selecting a landfill site.

Use of models for the environmental risk assessment of veterinary medicines in European aquaculture: current situation and future perspectives

AbstractVeterinary Medicinal Products (VMPs) are used in intensive aquaculture production to treat a wide range of bacterial and parasitic infestations. Their release into the environment poses concerns regarding their potential ecotoxicological risks to aquatic ecosystems, which need to be evaluated making use of appropriate Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) schemes and models. This study presents an overview of the major aquaculture production systems in Europe, the VMPs most commonly used, and the environmental quality standards and regulatory procedures available for their ERA. Furthermore, it describes the state‐of‐the‐art on the development of environmental models capable of assessing the fate, exposure, ecotoxicological effects and risks of VMPs in aquaculture production systems, and discusses their level of development and implementation within European aquaculture. This study shows that the use of environmental models in regulatory ERA is somewhat limited in many European countries. Major efforts have been dedicated to assess the fate and exposure of antiparasitic compounds in salmonid cage systems, particularly in Scotland, while models and scenarios for assessing dispersal of antimicrobials, in general, and antiparasitic compounds in the Mediterranean as well as in Scandinavian regions are less available. On the other hand, the use of ecological models for assessing the effects and risks of VMPs is almost absent. Recommendations are provided to improve the chemical exposure and effect assessments and the ecological realism of the modelling outcomes, paying special attention to the protection goals set for the regulatory ERA of VMPs in Europe.

Decomposition of Fertilizer Use Intensity and Its Environmental Risk in China’s Grain Production Process

In order to fully explore the fertilizer use intensity and its potential threats to the ecological environment, this paper has studied the decomposition of fertilizer use intensity and its environmental risk in China’s grain production. Based on the statistical data collected from 10 provinces during 2004–2015 in China’s grain producing areas, this paper has analyzed the effect of fertilizer use intensity from a regional perspective. The environmental risk assessment model considers some factors such as the fertilizer application safety thresholds use efficiency, multiple cropping index, and environmental impact weight. The fertilizer application safety thresholds are calculated on the target output of local food crops. The results show that: (1) during 2004–2015, the fertilizer use intensity shows an increasing trend in China’s grain producing areas, and the intensity is significantly higher than the upper limit of the international safety fertilization; (2) the cumulative contribution rate of the increase of fertilizer use intensity caused by regional fertilizer use efficiency and grain planting structure adjustment are 57.03% and 1.81% respectively; (3) in 2015, China’s grain producing areas’ environmental risk index of phosphorus and potash was low, with the values in these two provinces being quite different and indicating the characteristics of aggregation and distribution. Therefore, the Chinese government should unswervingly encourage the application of some technology that could save fertilizer and increase efficiency, establish environmental risk monitoring and control systems, and improve relevant policies and regulations.

A HIVE model for regional integrated environmental risk assessment: A case study in China

ABSTRACTRegional environmental risk assessment has been a significant means of environmental management and decision-making. To assess the regional integrated environmental risk at a nationwide scale, a new index system named the Hazard, Intensity, Vulnerability, and Effectiveness (HIVE) model was designed and evolved from previous researches. The HIVE model consisted of a relatively complete framework with accessible indexes related to environment and social economy, and it considered different risk sources, pathways, and receptors as well as the influence of the risk control. As an important segment of the assessment process, a simple gridding information diffusion method was also proposed to assess the diffusion effect of risk factors in nationwide rivers. Taking China as a case study, this study calculated the environmental risk value of every sub-unit. Through the clustering function of Statistical Package for Social Sciences and the visual representation of a geographic information system, the study area was divided into nine zones that were visualized on maps according to their different risk levels and risk characteristics. This study also identified the dominant factors of each zone, which could provide the foundation for regional environmental management. Moreover, the results implied some significant correlations between risk system components and the regional social economy in China.

Glucocorticoid activity detected by in vivo zebrafish assay and in vitro glucocorticoid receptor bioassay at environmental relevant concentrations.

Glucocorticoids are pharmaceutical contaminants of emerging concern due to their incomplete removal during wastewater treatment, increased presence in aquatic environment and their biological potency. The zebrafish is a popular model for aquatic toxicology and environmental risk assessment. This study aimed to determine if glucocorticoids at environmental concentrations would perturb expression of selected glucocorticoid-responsive genes in zebrafish and to investigate their potentials as an in vivo zebrafish assay in complementing in vitro glucocorticoid receptor bioassay. The relative expression of eleven glucocorticoid-responsive genes in zebrafish larvae and liver of adult male zebrafish exposed to three representative glucocorticoids (dexamethasone, prednisolone and triamcinolone) was determined. The expression of pepck, baiap2 and pxr was up-regulated in zebrafish larvae and the expression of baiap2, pxr and mmp-2 was up-regulated in adult zebrafish exposed to glucocorticoids at concentrations equivalent to total glucocorticoids reported in environmental samples. The responsiveness of the specific genes were sufficiently robust in zebrafish larvae exposed to a complex environmental sample detected with in vitro glucocorticoid activity equivalent to 478 pM dexamethasone (DEX-EQ) and confirmed to contain low concentration (0.2 ng/L or less) of the targeted glucocorticoids, and possibly other glucocorticoid-active compounds. The findings provided in vivo relevance to the in vitro glucocorticoid activity and suggested that the environmental sample can perturb glucocorticoid-responsive genes in its original, or half the diluted, concentration as may be found in the environment. The study demonstrated the important complementary roles of in vivo zebrafish and in vitro bioassays coupled with analytical chemistry in monitoring environmental glucocorticoid contaminants.

Bisphenol A exposure pathways in early childhood: Reviewing the need for improved risk assessment models.

Bisphenol A (BPA) is a plasticiser found in a number of household plastics, electronics, and food-packaging materials. Over the past 5 years, several human epidemiological studies have reported a positive association between BPA exposure and adverse health outcomes in children, including obesity, asthma, preterm birth, and neuro-behavioural disturbances. These findings are in conflict with international environmental risk assessment models, which predict daily exposure levels to BPA should not pose a risk to child health. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the evidence for different exposure sources and potential exposure pathways of BPA in early childhood. By collating the findings from experimental models and exposure associations observed in human bio-monitoring studies, we affirm the potential for non-dietary sources to make a substantial contribution to total daily exposure in young children. Infants and toddlers have distinctive exposure sources, physiology, and metabolism of endocrine-disrupting chemicals. We recommend risk-assessment models implement new frameworks, which specifically address exposure and hazard in early childhood. This is particularly important for BPA, which is present in numerous products in the home and day-care environments, and for which animal studies report contradictory findings on its safety at environmentally relevant levels of exposure.

Application of ICP-mS in the health risk assessment of heavy metals for drinking water sources in reservoirs

The six heavy metal concentrations (Cr, Cr, As, Cd, Cu, Zn and Pb) in water samples collected from five reservoirs of Liao River Basin were studied. The health risk assessment for heavy metals pollution in reservoirs was conducted based on the environmental health risk assessment model recommended by U. S. Environmental Protection Agency. The results showed that the average concentrations of Cr, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb in five reservoirs of Liao River Basin were 3.36, 1.03, 2. 70, 1.23, 0. 02 and 0. 03 microg L-1, respectively. In fact, these heavy metals concentrations were obviously lower than the Standard of National Drinking Water in China (GB 5749-2006). The results also showed that the metal carcinogenic risk was relatively high in this region. The order of the risk level of carcinogenic metals was Cr>As>Cd. The highest carcinogenic risk was from Cr, with the risk for adults ranging from 4. 50 X 10(-5) approximately 7. 53 X 10(-5) a-1' and the risk for children ranging from 6. 29 X 10(-5) to 1. 05 X 10(-4) a-1. The health risk levels caused by non-carcinogenic metals ranging from 10-13 to 10(-10) a-1 were lower than the acceptable range suggested by International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the order of the risk level of non-carcinogenic metals was Cu>Zn>Pb. The total health risk of heavy metals for adults ranging from 1. 07X 10(-4) to 1. 72X 10(-4) a-1 and for children ranging from 1. 49 X 10(-4) to 2. 40 X 10(-4) a-1 exceeded the accepted level of 5 X 10(-5) a-1 as suggested by ICRP. The health risk levels of carcinogenic metals were significantly higher than those of non-carcinogenic metals in the reservoirs for Liao River Basin.

Concentration-dependent polyparameter linear free energy relationships to predict organic compound sorption on carbon nanotubes

Adsorption of organic compounds on carbon nanotubes (CNTs), governed by interactions between molecules and CNTs surfaces, is critical for their fate, transport, bioavailability and toxicity in the environment. Here, we report a promising concentration-dependent polyparameter linear free energy relationships (pp-LFERs) model to describe the compound-CNTs interactions and to predict sorption behavior of chemicals on CNTs in a wide range of concentrations (over five orders of magnitude). The developed pp-LFERs are able to capture the dependence of the ki on equilibrium concentration. The pp-LFERs indexes [r, p, a, b, v] representing different interactions are found to have a good relationship with the aqueous equilibrium concentrations of compounds. This modified model can successfully interpret the relative contribution of each interaction at a given concentration and reliably predict sorption of various chemicals on CNTs. This approach is expected to help develop a better environmental fate and risk assessment model.

Non-coding RNAs in Crop Genetic Modification: Considerations and Predictable Environmental Risk Assessments (ERA)

Of late non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs)-mediated gene silencing is an influential tool deliberately deployed to negatively regulate the expression of targeted genes. In addition to the widely employed small interfering RNA (siRNA)-mediated gene silencing approach, other variants like artificial miRNA (amiRNA), miRNA mimics, and artificial transacting siRNAs (tasiRNAs) are being explored and successfully deployed in developing non-coding RNA-based genetically modified plants. The ncRNA-based gene manipulations are typified with mobile nature of silencing signals, interference from viral genome-derived suppressor proteins, and an obligation for meticulous computational analysis to prevaricate any inadvertent effects. In a broad sense, risk assessment inquiries for genetically modified plants based on the expression of ncRNAs are competently addressed by the environmental risk assessment (ERA) models, currently in vogue, designed for the first generation transgenic plants which are based on the expression of heterologous proteins. Nevertheless, transgenic plants functioning on the foundation of ncRNAs warrant due attention with respect to their unique attributes like off-target or non-target gene silencing effects, small RNAs (sRNAs) persistence, food and feed safety assessments, problems in detection and tracking of sRNAs in food, impact of ncRNAs in plant protection measures, effect of mutations etc. The role of recent developments in sequencing techniques like next generation sequencing (NGS) and the ERA paradigm of the different countries in vogue are also discussed in the context of ncRNA-based gene manipulations.

Freeway Environmental Risk Assessment and Countermeasures

In recent years, various types of unexpected environmental accidents occurred frequently in China, which had caused great harm to economy and social development of China. The environmental risk assessment (ERA) model was built based on the related factors was described. Take the case of the proposed project of Cangzhou-Qiantongzhen freeway, the environmental risk was assessed by ERA model, and the corresponding countermeasures and emergency plans were put forward in the construction and operation period. The results show that the probability of water pollution in the sensitive sections along the freeway is 0.000927 to 0.011563times per year.

Testing Contamination Risk Assessment Methods for Mine Waste Sites

Major incidents involving mine waste facilities and poor environmental management practices have left the legacy of thousands of contaminated sites like in the historic mining areas in the Carpathian Basin. Associated environmental risks have triggered the development of new EU environmental legislation to prevent and minimize the effects of such incidents. The Mine Waste Directive requires the risk-based inventory of all mine waste sites in Europe by May 2012. In order to address the mining environmental problems, a standard risk-based pre-selection protocol has been developed by the EU Commission. The protocol consists of 18 simple questions about contamination source, pathway and receptor. This paper evaluates the protocol by applying it to real-life cases, adopting it to local conditions, comparing to the similar method of the European Environmental Agency standard Preliminary Risk Assessment Model (PRAMS) and by carrying out uncertainty analysis. All together, 145 ore mine waste sites have been selected for scientific testing and evaluation using the EU Mining Waste Directive (MWD) Pre-selection Protocol as a case study from Hungary. The proportion of uncertain responses to questions in the protocol for the mine waste site gives an insight of specific and overall uncertainty in the data used. Questions of the EU MWD Pre-selection Protocol are linked to a GIS system, and key parameters such as the topographic slope and distance to the nearest surface and groundwater bodies to settlements and protected areas are calculated and statistically evaluated in order to adjust the RA models to local conditions in Hungary. Results show that the adjustment of threshold values to local conditions is necessary; however, the EU MWD Pre-selection Protocol is robust and is relatively insensitive to threshold values. Results of the EU MWD Pre-selection Protocol are consistent with the pre-screening European Environmental Agency PRAMS model which further confirms that the Protocol delivers reliable selection results that are not sensitive to the selected parameters. An interesting outcome of the study is that the highest uncertainty is associated with the engineering conditions of the waste facilities, such as the heights and size.