Environmental Risk Analysis Research Articles

Instrumento para o gerenciamento de riscos ambientais

RESUMO: Embora existam normas e metodologias padronizadas para a análise de riscos ambientais dentro de uma organização, os mecanismos e/ou instrumentos disponíveis estão sujeitos à subjetividade, não são automatizados, não estabelecem critérios técnicos e, de maneira geral, não apresentam mecanismos de priorização para a tomada de decisão. Com base nas lacunas observadas, a presente nota técnica apresenta as premissas de um Instrumento de Gestão para a Identificação e o Gerenciamento de Riscos Ambientais (IGIGRA). O dashboard consolidado pelo IGIGRA permitirá a visualização consolidada dos riscos ambientais do empreendimento, proporcionando comparações entre diferentes operações e períodos de avaliação, fornecendo base técnica para a priorização de ações e alocação de recursos para o controle dos riscos dentro da organização.

A technical evaluation, performance analysis and risk assessment of multiple novel oxy-turbine power cycles with complete CO2 capture

In recent years there has been growing concern about greenhouse gas emissions (particularly CO2 emissions) and global warming. Oxyfuel combustion is one of the key technologies for tackling CO2 emissions in the power industry and reducing their contribution to global warming. The technology involves burning fuel with high-purity oxygen to generate mainly CO2 and steam, enabling easy CO2 separation from the flue gases by steam condensation. In fact, 100% CO2 capture and near-zero NOx emissions can be achieved with this technology.This study examines nineteen different oxy-turbine cycles, identifying the main parameters regarding their operation and development. It also analyses the use of advanced natural gas (NG) combustion cycles from the point of view of the carbon capture and storage (CCS) and considering political, legislative and social aspects of deploying this technology. Six oxy-turbine cycles which are at the most advanced stages of development (NetPower, Clean Energy Systems CES), Modified Graz, E-MATIANT, Advanced Zero Emission Power AZEP 100% and Semi-Closed Oxy-fuel Combustion Combined Cycle (SCOC-CC)), were chosen to conduct a Political, Environmental, Social, Technological, Legislative and Economic (PESTLE) risk analysis. This compares each technology with a conventional combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant without carbon capture as the base-case scenario. Overall, the net efficiency of the different oxy-turbine cycles ranges between 43.6% and 65%, comparable to a CCGT power plant, while providing the extra benefits of CO2 capture and lower emissions.A multi-criteria analysis carried out using DECERNS (Decision Evaluation in Complex Risk Network Systems) software determined that, depending on the specific criterion considered, one can draw different conclusions. However, in terms of technology, environment and social opinion, the most promising cycles are the NetPower and CES cycles, whereas from an economic point of view, E-MATIANT is more competitive in the energy market. Giving each factor equal importance, the NetPower cycle must be considered to be the best oxy-turbine cycle based on our analysis.Most of the oxy-turbine cycles are still under development and only a few cycles (e.g., CES and NetPower) are progressing to the demonstration phase. In consequence, political measures such as CO2 tax and emission allowances need to be implemented for oxy-turbine technologies to become the preferred option for fossil fuel power plants burning natural gas.

Anamorphic Cartograms and Environmental Risk Analysis

Both Geography and Statistics use graphical representations. Information Technology has enhanced the visualization of data, beyond the traditional aspects, to such an extent that we can nowadays speak of an "image society". Traditional thematic mapping also shows transformations of a variable over time, linking the geographical datum to the time variable. For some decades now a number of cartograms have been in use, for which the base area is displaced as a function of a particular factor, these are known as anamorphic cartograms. An anamorphic map is easier to read and may give an overview of a geographic whole.

Mitigating the effects of preferentially selected monitoring sites for environmental policy and health risk analysis

The potential effects of air pollution are a major concern both in terms of the environment and in relation to human health. In order to support both environmental and health policy there is a need for accurate estimates of the exposures that populations might experience. The information for this typically comes from environmental monitoring networks but often the locations of monitoring sites are preferentially located in order to detect high levels of pollution. Using the information from such networks has the potential to seriously affect the estimates of pollution that are obtained and that might be used in health risk analyses. In this context, we explore the topic of preferential sampling within a long–standing network in the UK that monitored black smoke due to concerns about its effect on public health, the extent of which came to prominence during the famous London fog of 1952. Abatement measures led to a decline in the levels of black smoke and a subsequent reduction in the number of monitoring locations that were thought necessary to provide the information required for policy support. There is evidence of selection bias during this process with sites being kept in the most polluted areas. We assess the potential for this to affect the estimates of risk associated air pollution and show how using Bayesian spatio–temporal exposure models may be used to attempt to mitigate the effects of preferential sampling in this case.

Achieving a 54% Reduction in Geriatric Fall-Caused Hospitalizations and a 65% Reduction in Fall-Caused Injuries Requiring Long-Term Care: A Multifactorial Program Conducted Among 6600 Community Resident Elders in Florida

Background: Falls among the elderly are expensive and debilitating. Falls among elders are now the leading cause of injury ED visits, the leading cause of injury hospitalizations, a leading cause of hospitalization readmissions, the leading cause of hospitalizations from nursing homes, and a major cause of nursing home admissions. But, they are preventable. Design and Methods:A representative random sample of Medicaid-eligible seniors was selected proportionately by geographic density (i.e., zip code) in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. Subjects participated in informational workshops; non-invasive somatic fall risk factor analysis; HIPPA-compliant sharing of risk reports with their physicians; in-home environmental fall risk analysis; pre- and post-fall counseling; periodic telephone calls to the elders’ support network (including physicians) and periodic safetygrams for an average of 28 months. Using 1.3 billion claims from the Florida Medicaid Data Warehouse, the participant groups were compared with several control groups on 1.) hospitalizations for injurious falls; 2.) nursing home stays for fall-caused injuries and 3.) Medicaid savings as a proportion of program costs. The study was carried out in 2015. Results: The treatment groups had statistically significantly lower healthcare utilization due to injurious falls than did various control groups: hospitalizations were lower; nursing home stays were lower; independent audits showed a savings of $2.40 for every $1.00 invested. Conclusions: Multi-disciplinary, socio-medical fall prevention programs for community-resident elders can significantly reduce healthcare utilization due to injurious falls among dual eligible elders.

Environmental risk analysis and prioritization of pharmaceuticals in a developing world context

The impact of residual pharmaceuticals on the aquatic environment has gained widespread attention over the past years. Various studies have established the occurrence of pharmaceutical compounds in different water bodies throughout the world. In view of the absence of occurrence data in a number of developing world countries, and given the limited availability of analytical resources in these countries, it is prudent to devise methodologies to prioritize pharmaceuticals for environmental monitoring purposes that are site specific. In this work, several prioritization approaches are used to rank the 88 most commonly consumed pharmaceuticals in Lebanon. A simultaneous multi-criteria decision analysis method utilizing the exposure, persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity (EPBT) approach is applied to a smaller subset of the original list (69 pharmaceuticals). Several base cases are investigated and sensitivity analysis is applied to one of these base case runs. The similarities and differences in the overall ranking of individual, and classes of, pharmaceuticals for the base cases and the sensitivity runs are elucidated. An environmental risk assessment (ERA), where predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) and risk quotients (RQ) are determined at different dilution factors, is performed as an alternative method of prioritization for a total of 84 pharmaceuticals. The ERA results indicate that metformin and amoxicillin have the highest PECs while 17β-estradiol, naftidrofuryl and dimenhydrinate have the highest RQs. The two approaches, EPBT prioritization and ERA, are compared and a priority list consisting of 26 pharmaceuticals of various classes is developed. Nervous system and alimentary tract and metabolism pharmaceuticals (9/26 and 5/26 respectively) constitute more than half of the numbers on the priority list with the balance consisting of anti-infective (4/26), musculo-skeletal (3/26), genito-urinary (2/26), respiratory (2/26) and cardiovascular (1/26) pharmaceuticals. This list will serve as a basis for the selection of candidate compounds to focus on for future monitoring campaigns.

Meta-analysis of cellular toxicity for cadmium-containing quantum dots.

Understanding the relationships between the physicochemical properties of engineered nanomaterials and their toxicity is critical for environmental and health risk analysis. However, this task is confounded by material diversity, heterogeneity of published data and limited sampling within individual studies. Here, we present an approach for analysing and extracting pertinent knowledge from published studies focusing on the cellular toxicity of cadmium-containing semiconductor quantum dots. From 307 publications, we obtain 1,741 cell viability-related data samples, each with 24 qualitative and quantitative attributes describing the material properties and experimental conditions. Using random forest regression models to analyse the data, we show that toxicity is closely correlated with quantum dot surface properties (including shell, ligand and surface modifications), diameter, assay type and exposure time. Our approach of integrating quantitative and categorical data provides a roadmap for interrogating the wide-ranging toxicity data in the literature and suggests that meta-analysis can help develop methods for predicting the toxicity of engineered nanomaterials.

Results of the Project “Analysis of Environmental Risk in the Exclusion Zone at the Belarus-Ukraine Border”

Results of the Project “Analysis of Environmental Risk in the Exclusion Zone at the Belarus-Ukraine Border”

Review of Research Trends and Methods in Nano Environmental, Health, and Safety Risk Analysis.

Despite the many touted benefits of nanomaterials, concerns remain about their possible environmental, health, and safety (EHS) risks in terms of their toxicity, long-term accumulation effects, or dose-response relationships. The published studies on EHS risks of nanomaterials have increased significantly over the past decade and half, with most focused on nanotoxicology. Researchers are still learning about health consequences of nanomaterials and how to make environmentally responsible decisions regarding their production. This article characterizes the scientific literature on nano-EHS risk analysis to map the state-of-the-art developments in this field and chart guidance for the future directions. First, an analysis of keyword co-occurrence networks is investigated for nano-EHS literature published in the past decade to identify the intellectual turning points and research trends in nanorisk analysis studies. The exposure groups targeted in emerging nano-EHS studies are also assessed. System engineering methods for risk, safety, uncertainty, and system reliability analysis are reviewed, followed by detailed descriptions where applications of these methods are utilized to analyze nanomaterial EHS risks. Finally, the trends, methods, future directions, and opportunities of system engineering methods in nano-EHS research are discussed. The analysis of nano-EHS literature presented in this article provides important insights on risk assessment and risk management tools associated with nanotechnology, nanomanufacturing, and nano-enabled products.

Can a GIS toolbox assess the environmental risk of oil spills? Implementation for oil facilities in harbors

Oil spills are one of the most widespread problems in port areas (loading/unloading of bulk liquid, fuel supply). Specific environmental risk analysis procedures for diffuse oil sources that are based on the evolution of oil in the marine environment are needed. Diffuse sources such as oil spills usually present a lack of information, which makes the use of numerical models an arduous and occasionally impossible task. For that reason, a tool that can assess the risk of oil spills in near-shore areas by using Geographical Information System (GIS) is presented. The SPILL Tool provides immediate results by automating the process without miscalculation errors. The tool was developed using the Python and ArcGIS scripting library to build a non-ambiguous geoprocessing workflow. The SPILL Tool was implemented for oil facilities at Tarragona Harbor (NE Spain) and validated showing a satisfactory correspondence (around 0.60 RSR error index) with the results obtained using a 2D calibrated oil transport numerical model.

Calibrating an Ice Sheet Model Using High-Dimensional Binary Spatial Data

Rapid retreat of ice in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica may cause drastic sea level rise, posing significant risks to populations in low-lying coastal regions. Calibration of computer models representing the behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is key for informative projections of future sea level rise. However, both the relevant observations and the model output are high-dimensional binary spatial data; existing computer model calibration methods are unable to handle such data. Here we present a novel calibration method for computer models whose output is in the form of binary spatial data. To mitigate the computational and inferential challenges posed by our approach, we apply a generalized principal component based dimension reduction method. To demonstrate the utility of our method, we calibrate the PSU3D-ICE model by comparing the output from a 499-member perturbed-parameter ensemble with observations from the Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet. Our methods help rigorously characterize the parameter uncertainty even in the presence of systematic data-model discrepancies and dependence in the errors. Our method also helps inform environmental risk analyses by contributing to improved projections of sea level rise from the ice sheets. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Integrated Assessment of Environmental Hazard of Enterprises and Territories

There was presented methodology of integrated assessment of environmental hazard, whose main elements are: identification of sources of environmental hazard; assessment of the degree of danger of existing environmental situation; analysis of environmental risks and the assessment of the potential environmental hazard; integrated assessment of existing and potential environmental hazard in a particular area. There was presented systematization of sources of environmental hazard and methods of identifying the existing and potential sources of environmental hazard. Hazard degree assessments of existing environmental situation include landscape identification of the territory, the definition of the total anthropogenic load, and integrated assessment of environment pollution. Environmental hazards in a particular area is determined by the combined action of existing and potential sources of environmental hazards, as well as a degree of danger of existing environmental situation. The presented method was tested in the evaluation of environmental hazards in the Stavropol Kray territory. The proposed method allows carrying out a qualitative assessment of environmental hazard of enterprises and territories, the results of which form the basis for developing measures to ensure environmental safety.

Risk analysis of development of the urbanized territories

Problem analysis and risk evaluation of urban areas has several related aspects. Together with the relative novelty of the scientific field management of development areas, tasks of risk management in terms of urbanization have not yet received sufficient research and methodological support. The purpose of the study is in the development and testing of an effective mechanism of analysis and evaluation of environmental and economic risks that arise in the process of realization projects of development in urban areas. Objects of the study are ecological and economic risks specific to projects of development in urban areas and arising from the process of transformation of the natural-anthropogenic environment. The hypothesis of the study is in adaptation principles of the method of analysis of hierarchies and application of consistent formal expert assessment of ecological and economic risks to the problems of analysis projects of development in urban areas, as a result of which it is proposed to carry out the selection of the most rational directions for practical implementation in conditions a particular urban environment. The result of research is the author’s approach to the adaptation of the well-known and positively proven in solving multi-criteria tasks method of analysis of hierarchies to identify and assessment the risk level development of urban areas based on multi-variation risk events and different probability of their existence.

Идентификация риска коррупции в контексте разработки концепции экологической наноэкономики

Objective: to develop a methodology for identifying the types and subtypes of economic activities at risk of environmental corruption in Russia. Methods of research: the typology of the interaction of meso- and nanoeconomic systems in the context of environmental risk of corruption on the basis of a comparison of the results of correlation and regression analysis of the infl uence the net fi nancial result of activity of organizations and average monthly nominal accrued wages of employees of organizations on the volume of emissions of pollutants from stationary sources in terms of types and subtypes of economic activity in Russia. Research results: the approach to the organization of countering corruption in the context of the author's concept of the ecological nanoeconomics; developed a method of economic and mathematical analysis of environmental risk of corruption; justifi ed composition of the array of statistical indicators to empirically underpin the author's approach towards the fi ght against environmental corruption; identifi ed types and subtypes of economic activity, the environmental risk of corruption in Russia; the perspective development of the author's approaches to corruption prevention in Russia and other countries of the world. Scientifi c novelty: the notion of «nanoeconomics» was fi rst introduced to the scientifi c and deterministic defi nition of «environmental nanoeconomics», demonstrated the introduction of the following concepts – «nanoeconomics of enterprise », «nanoeconomics project», «nanoeconomics of the region», «nanoeconomics of the country»; it defi nes the essence of corruption in the context of dialectics of interrelation of interests of nanoeconomics with the interests of micro-, meso-, macro- and megaeconomics; the developed approach on the application of economic-mathematical methods for the early diagnosis of environmental corruption. Practical value: approach to application of economic-mathematical methods for the early diagnosis of environmental corruption it is advisable to use within pedagogical, research and analysis, and to develop guidelines for diagnosing the risk of corruption; the approbation of the author's methodology of identifi cation of types and subtypes of economic activity, the environmental risk of corruption in Russia, will allow to improve the quality of anti-corruption measures in the implementation of environmental policy of Russia and other countries of the world.

On Optimisation of Environmentally Friendly Aircraft Engine Cycles

In this work the Techno-economic Environmental Risk Analysis framework, a multi-disciplinary optimisation tool developed by Cranfield University, is utilised in conjunction with an in-house optimiser to carry out aircraft engine cycle optimisation processes. The central point here is the evaluation of the capabilities of the in-house optimiser for performing this type of optimisation processes. Simplifying hypotheses are thus considered when both defining the aircraft flight trajectory and modelling the different engine configurations analysed. Accordingly, several optimum engine cycles minimising separately three objective functions, (i) specific fuel consumption in cruise, (ii) fuel burned, and (iii) oxides of nitrogen emitted, are determined. The cycle optimisation processes carried out yield results reflecting the general trends expected when optimising according to these objective functions. It follows then that the in-house optimiser is suitable for carrying out gas turbine power plant optimisation processes. It is expected that this optimiser is utilised in future for both optimising the preliminary design of gas turbine engines, and determining optimum and ‘greener’ aircraft engine cycles.

Risk analysis using species distribution modeling to support public policies for the alien alga Kappaphycus alvarezii aquaculture in Brazil

Abstract The native tropical seaweed Kappaphycus alvarezii from the Indo-Pacific region has been introduced in many countries because it is the main source of raw material for the carrageenan industry. In Brazil, K. alvarezii aquaculture is allowed in 300 km of the southeastern coast. The aim of this study was to analyze the risk of invasion of this species along the entire Brazilian coast to design public policies and to minimize environmental risks associated with aquaculture. The risk analysis was based on: K. alvarezii suitability models (GARP and MAXENT), coral reef presence, substrate preferences for establishment, and the probability of occurrence of nine species of herbivores that are potential feeders. An invasibility index was created from these parameters and published data of field experiments were used for calibration. The maximum values of suitability corresponded to regions with low temperature ranges, low nitrate availability, high irradiance, and high salinity. Three invasion risk classes were established. The areas of high risk are the eastern and northeastern regions, where the main Atlantic coral reefs are found. This is a priority area for global marine conservation. K. alvarezii introduction is not recommended in this area and the cultivation of native species must be prioritized. The area of medium risk is mainly in the northern region, where local field scale experiments are recommended before widespread introduction. The area of low risk is the southeastern region, where K. alvarezii farming has been established since 2004 with no evidence of invasion. However, considering the high capacity of acclimation of this species, permanent monitoring is recommended, even in areas having a low risk of invasion. Statement of relevance We state the relevance of our paper in commercial aquaculture since we presented a consistent environmental risk analysis for K. alvarezii that according to FAO is the most cultivated seaweed in the world. Our aim is to contribute for development of sustainable seaweed aquaculture, subsiding data to minimize environmental risks associated with K. alvarezii introduction. This kind of analysis also can be adapted to other countries. Our results indicate safe areas to extend K. alvarezii cultivation, areas where the native seaweed should be cultivated and with those conclusions encouraging the expansion of the commercial seaweed aquaculture and highlight for high environmental risks in coral reef areas.

Environmental and Social Risk Analysis of Bangladesh

Environmental and Social Risk Analysis of Bangladesh

Evaluating geographically weighted regression models for environmental chemical risk analysis.

In the evaluation of cancer risk related to environmental chemical exposures, the effect of many correlated chemicals on disease is often of interest. The relationship between correlated environmental chemicals and health effects is not always constant across a study area, as exposure levels may change spatially due to various environmental factors. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been proposed to model spatially varying effects. However, concerns about collinearity effects, including regression coefficient sign reversal (ie, reversal paradox), may limit the applicability of GWR for environmental chemical risk analysis. A penalized version of GWR, the geographically weighted lasso, has been proposed to remediate the collinearity effects in GWR models. Our focus in this study was on assessing through a simulation study the ability of GWR and GWL to correctly identify spatially varying chemical effects for a mixture of correlated chemicals within a study area. Our results showed that GWR suffered from the reversal paradox, while GWL overpenalized the effects for the chemical most strongly related to the outcome.

PROPIEDADES TOXICOLÓGICAS Y AMBIENTALES DE UN ELECTROLITO BASADO EN CrIII/CLORURO DE COLINA

At present, industrial application of hard chromium electroplating is based on electrolytic baths of sulphuric acid and chromium trioxide solutions in water. Toxicological and environmental properties of this chromium (VI) baths show the convenience of searching for new CrVI free formulations. Research activities have shown that chromium metallic coatings from an ionic liquid (IL) using trivalent chromium salts can be successfully produced. A highly promising CrVI free, bright, thick and hard chromium deposition process has been developed based on an ionic liquid composed of Chromium chloride (CrCl3.6H2O) and Choline chloride (HOC2H4N(CH3)3+Cl?). Jointly with technological properties evaluation, a methodological study on environmental risk analysis and on implications in health & safety for the referred ionic liquid bath has been carried out. With that aim, experimental tests on the basis of toxicological properties, of effects on human health and of environmental effects were conducted. Comparisons of the obtained results with the behaviour of traditional baths used for the same purpose were also accomplished, showing for the ionic liquid formulation a lower toxicity and less environmental risk than for the CrVI formulation.

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Crude Oil Pipelines

Risk Assessment is an extremely useful tool in providing a framework in which to identify the possible hazards and evaluate the risks associated with all crude oil pipelines. By using index method and multivariable analysis, a methodology of the threat and risk of crude oil pipelines to environment are presented. General concepts are introduced and explained in detail. Principles of the methodology, the specific equations, and data required to prepare a risk analysis for environmental risk and failure analysis are discussed and explained, and an example is presented to illustrate the method.