Environmental Risk Analysis Research Articles

Preventing Transboundary Harm From Invasive Alien Species

The problem of invasive alien species (IAS) is the second biggest threat to biodiversity after loss of habitat. Although customary international law obliges States to prevent transboundary environmental harm such as IAS, international law does not clearly articulate these obligations in this context. A potentially helpful mechanism lies in the use of transboundary environmental impact assessment and risk analysis. However, the operation of these processes, within international environmental law, international quarantine law and international trade law has generated obligations that largely remain soft, ill‐defined and inconsistent. This situation is counter‐productive to preventing or minimizing transboundary harm caused by IAS.

Evaluation of pest risk assessments and risk management options prepared to justify requests for phytosanitary measures under Council Directive 2000/29/EC ‐ Guidance of the Panel on Plant Health

The European Food Safety Authority requested the Panel on Plant Health to produce a guidance document on the evaluation of documents prepared by EU Member States or third parties to justify requests for phytosanitary measures to be considered under Council Directive 2000/29/EC[3]. The Panel reviewed the 36 opinions published in the period 2006-2008, and in particular considered the evaluation process for 30 pest risk analysis documents prepared by France on organisms considered harmful for the overseas Departments of Guadeloupe, French Guiana, Martinique and Reunion. It also considered the International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures (ISPMs) and the evaluation process is presented with reference to the elements of ISPM No. 11: Pest risk analysis for quarantine pests including analysis of environmental risks and living modified organisms[4]. This guidance confirms the criteria used by the Panel in evaluating whether the evidence presented in the submitted documents supports the conclusion that an organism may pose a risk to plant health and therefore be considered as a harmful organism. The following elements are used as the basis of the conclusions reached by the Panel: •the potential for consequences to cultivated and managed plants and environmental consequences following the introduction of the organism to a specified area •the likelihood of establishment and spread •the likelihood of entry by analysis of the potential pathways presented •the uncertainties which may influence the conclusions reached. If requested, the Panel may also identify and evaluate the effectiveness of potential risk management options a) in reducing the risk of entry and b) in reducing the magnitude of the potential consequences following the introduction of an organism considered to pose a risk to plant health in the European Community.

EbTrack: an environmental bioinformatics system built upon ArrayTrack™

ebTrack is being developed as an integrated bioinformatics system for environmental research and analysis by addressing the issues of integration, curation, management, first level analysis and interpretation of environmental and toxicological data from diverse sources. It is based on enhancements to the US FDA developed ArrayTrack system through additional analysis modules for gene expression data as well as through incorporation and linkages to modules for analysis of proteomic and metabonomic datasets that include tandem mass spectra. ebTrack uses a client-server architecture with the free and open source PostgreSQL as its database engine, and java tools for user interface, analysis, visualization, and web-based deployment. Several predictive tools that are critical for environmental health research are currently supported in ebTrack, including Significance Analysis of Microarray (SAM). Furthermore, new tools are under continuous integration, and interfaces to environmental health risk analysis tools are being developed in order to make ebTrack widely usable. These health risk analysis tools include the Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk studies (MENTOR) for source-to-dose exposure modeling and the DOse Response Information ANalysis system (DORIAN) for health outcome modeling. The design of ebTrack is presented in detail and steps involved in its application are summarized through an illustrative application.

Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health

Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health

Confidence limits on one-stage model parameters in benchmark risk assessment

In modern environmental risk analysis, inferences are often desired on those low dose levels at which a fixed benchmark risk is achieved. In this paper, we study the use of confidence limits on parameters from a simple one-stage model of risk historically popular in benchmark analysis with quantal data. Based on these confidence bounds, we present methods for deriving upper confidence limits on extra risk and lower bounds on the benchmark dose. The methods are seen to extend automatically to the case where simultaneous inferences are desired at multiple doses. Monte Carlo evaluations explore characteristics of the parameter estimates and the confidence limits under this setting.

Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health by FJELD, R. A., EISENBERG, N. A., and COMPTON, K. L.

Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health by FJELD, R. A., EISENBERG, N. A., and COMPTON, K. L.

Managing Uncertainty in Risk-Based Corrective Action Design: Global Sensitivity Analysis of Contaminant Fate and Exposure Models Used in the Dose Assessment

A variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) was applied to the dose assessment model used in the risk-based corrective action methodology of environmental risk analysis to identify key sources of variability and uncertainty and quantify the relative contribution of these sources to the variance of estimated dose. GSA was performed applying extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test technique. The soil-to-air contaminant transport pathway within an inhalation exposure scenario was addressed. Three persistent semi-volatile carcinogenic chemicals, including polychlorinated biphenyls, benzo(a)pyrene, and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin, were chosen as contaminants of concern.

Conjoint analysis for environmental evaluation

Conjoint analysis and the related choice-modelling methods have been used for many years in marketing research to evaluate consumer behaviour and preferences for different kinds of product attributes. Recently, the number of applications in environmental science and management has started to grow. Conjoint analysis is found in many different forms, and the environmental studies evaluated in this review display the same range of methods as in other fields. The key characteristic of all these methods is that trade-offs are evaluated by jointly considering a number of important attributes. This paper is a review of the literature on environmental applications of conjoint analysis and assesses in which environmental area conjoint analysis has been most successful. The method and the design of the studies are reviewed as well. A total of 84 studies were found, dealing with environmental issues that were evaluated by conjoint analysis. The studies concern agriculture, ecosystem management, energy, environmental evaluation, forestry, land management, pollution, products, recreation, environmental risk analysis and waste management. Choice experiments seem to have a comparatively stronger position in environmental studies than elsewhere. Most of the environmental applications are related to natural resource management. This is somewhat surprising, but a number of reports have appeared also on product evaluation, which could be a key application area in the future. Compared to marketing and transportation, the number of environmental conjoint studies is rather small but increasing, and the method has proven to work effectively in eliciting preferences on environmental issues. In environmental issues, experimenters often use choice experiments, especially concerning ecosystem management and environmental evaluations. When it comes to evaluating preferences concerning agriculture, forestry, energy and products, a more traditional approach of conjoint analysis is favoured. Two new areas of application are identified in this review--environmental communication and expert elicitation. Conjoint analysis can thus be developed into a useful instrument for environmental risk analysis and communication, both of which are necessary for an efficient approach to risk governance.

Pest risk assessment made by France on Citrus chlorotic dwarf virus considered by France as harmful in the French overseas departments of French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique and Réunion - Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Plant Health

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health was asked to deliver a scientific opinion on 30 pest risk assessments made by France on organisms which are considered by France as harmful in four French overseas departments, i.e. French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique and Reunion. In particular, the Panel was asked whether these organisms can be considered as harmful organisms for the endangered area of the above departments, in the meaning of the definition mentioned in Article 2.1.(e) of Directive 2000/29/EC and thus potentially eligible for addition to the list of harmful organisms in Directive 2000/29/EC. This document presents the opinion of the Panel on Plant Health on the simplified[1] pest risk assessment conducted by France on Citrus chlorotic dwarf virus, with French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique and Reunion considered as endangered area. The Panel will use the name Citrus chlorotic dwarf (CCD) agent in the following text, as the causal agent of citrus chlorotic dwarf disease has not yet been identified. CCD is a virus-like disease that can affect almost all citrus species and cultivars. The causal agent is transmitted by the bayberry whitefly Parabemisia myricae Kuwana (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) in a persistent or semi-persistent manner. In addition CCD is transmitted by grafting and can be experimentally transmitted by mechanical inoculation. The Panel examined in detail the risk assessment provided, and considered the accuracy and quality of the information provided and of the methods applied for pest risk assessment purposes. The review was based on the principles and terminology of the International Standard on Phytosanitary Measures ISPM No. 11[2] [Pest risk analysis for quarantine pests including analysis of environmental risks and living modified organisms (2004)] and the terminology of ISPM No. 5 [Glossary of Phytosanitary Terms (2007)] by the International Plant Protection Convention (FAO, 2007). The simplified assessment provides limited evidence to justify the ratings given in the assessment. It concludes that the phytosanitary risk associated with CCD disease is low to moderate. After analysis of the French document, the references cited and additional references and in consultation with experts in Turkey, the Panel considers that the overall phytosanitary risk posed by the CCD agent is underestimated in the assessment provided. The Panel concludes that: * Although the causal agent of the CCD disease is not yet characterised, it produces distinct and consistent symptoms. * The CCD agent is graft transmissible and can be reliably detected although not identified by biological indexing. * The disease is currently restricted to the eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey * The CCD agent is effectively transmitted in a semi-persistent or persistent manner by the bayberry whitefly, Parabemisia myricae, which is present in Guadeloupe. Uncertainty exists over the presence of this vector in the other French overseas departments under consideration. * The main pathway of entry is through the import, from Turkey, of citrus plants or budwood for multiplication. * If the CCD agent was to be introduced, it would remain in the French overseas departments for at least as long as the infected material is cultivated and propagated and, at least in Guadeloupe, it is likely to spread to other citrus plants through vector activity. * Severe losses are reported in almost all citrus species with the exception of sweet orange which shows tolerance to the disease but may, however, act as source of inoculum. * Once the CCD agent is introduced in a citrus growing area, it would be difficult if not impossible to control and/or to eradicate. * Preventing entry of citrus plant material coming from the affected area would reduce the risks to the PRA area[3] to a negligible level. * While the CCD agent can be detected by bioassays as a disease causing agent, its unequivocal identification is pending. * A significant level of uncertainty also exists over the presence of P.myricae in the French overseas departments other than Guadeloupe. Overall, the Panel considers the CCD agent appropriate for analysis of risk management options for the French overseas departments of French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique and Reunion and thus potentially eligible for addition to the list of harmful organisms in Directive 2000/29/EC. The Panel notes, in addition, that the CCD agent may pose a risk to other citrus-growing areas in the European Union, particularly areas where the vector is present (e.g. Spain), and which lie closer to Turkey, the area where the disease is present. The Panel therefore recommends further assessment of the risks posed for the wider PRA area of the EU

Environmental and health risk analysis of nitrogen trifluoride (NF 3), a toxic and potent greenhouse gas

This article aimed at the introduction of nitrogen trifluoride (NF 3) and its decomposition products into its hazards to the environment and health because this perfluorocompound is a toxic and potent greenhouse gas not blanketed into the Kyoto Protocol. This paper also predicted the global NF 3 emissions from the electronics industry on the basis of the methodologies recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and further discussed its atmospheric implications according to the estimation of environmental fate for NF 3. It showed that the vaporization of NF 3 from the water bodies to the atmosphere is very high according to its predicted value ( ca. 6.0 × 10 5 MPa) of Henry's law constant ( K H). Furthermore, NF 3 emitted from the electronics industry around the world in 2006 was estimated to be between 3.6 and 56 metric tonnes and it will be on increasing trend in the near future. Although the accumulative amount of NF 3 in the atmosphere currently should be very negligible based on the predicted ratio (the order of 10 −6 to 10 −7) of equivalent CO 2 emission from NF 3 to total equivalent CO 2 emissions from potent greenhouse gases, it is necessary to adopt the available abatement and also monitor the concentration of NF 3 in the workplaces for reducing the overall environmental and health impacts of various semiconductor processes.

Review of Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health

Review of Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health

A framework for predicting personal exposures to environmental hazards

This paper presents a general framework for constructing a predictive distribution of the exposure to an environmental hazard sustained by a randomly selected member of a designated population. The individual’s exposure is assumed to arise from random movement through the environment, resulting in a distribution of exposure that can be used for environmental risk analysis. A specialization of the general framework is that of predicting human exposure to air pollution that can be used to develop models for such things as exposure to particulate matter; practical aspects of their construction are considered. These models can help answer questions such as what fraction of the population sustained ‘high’ levels of exposure for say 5 days in a row. The immediate implementation of the above framework takes the form of a computing platform referred to as pCNEM. This provides a facility for simulating exposures to airborne pollutants and is described in detail elsewhere. This paper considers some theoretical aspects underpinning probabilistic exposure models of this type, with the ideas illustrated in developing a model for predicting human exposure to PM 10.

Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health

Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health

Environmental risk analysis for accidental emissions

Environmental legislation and voluntary improvement activities at Finnish enterprises have led to a situation where attempts have been made to prevent accidental emissions resulting from abnormal and unexpected events at industrial sites by using environmental risk analysis. However, the consensus among companies and authorities was that there was no clear idea on what an environmental risk analysis should contain. A project with the aim of preparing a guideline for conducting environmental risk analysis according to good practises was commissioned. This article summarises the main contents of the guideline, focusing on the risk terminology and instructions about how to perform an environmental risk analysis in practice. The framework developed is strongly based on the risk analysis techniques and traditions of industrial safety. Environmental risk analysis consists of scope definition, risk identification, risk assessment and proposals for risk reduction and mitigation actions. A consequence matrix in association with a risk matrix is an important element of risk analysis, and supports the decision making from the viewpoint of risk tolerability and acceptance.

A Note on Testing Separability in Spatial‐Temporal Marked Point Processes

In environmental risk analysis, it is common to assume the stochastic independence (or separability) between the marks associated with the random events of a spatial-temporal point process. Schoenberg (2004, Biometrics 60, 471-481) proposed several test statistics for this hypothesis and used simulated data to evaluate their performance. He found that a Cramér-von Mises-type test is powerful to detect gradual departures from separability although it is not uniformly powerful over a large class of alternative models. We present a semiparametric approach to model alternative hypotheses to separability and derive a score test statistic. We show that there is a relationship between this score test and some of the test statistics proposed by Schoenberg. Specifically, all are different versions of weighted Cramér-von Mises-type statistics. This gives some insight into the reasons for the similarities and differences between the test statistics' performance. We also point out some difficulties in controlling the type I error probability in Schoenberg's residual test.

Applying GIS to assess the vulnerability of the Päijänne water-conveyance tunnel in Finland

Using GIS, relevant hydrogeological, geological and technical data on the Paijanne Tunnel in Finland were assembled with regional environmental datasets for spatial analysis of vulnerability and environmental risk. This 120-km rock tunnel conveys potable water to the Helsinki metropolitan area. It is connected to local groundwater circulation through fractures and, consequently, it is at risk from contaminant transport. The observed heterogeneity in the occurrence of superficial deposits, in fracturing in the rock mass and in hydraulic activity are used to recommend alternatives for (1) focusing the assessment and eventual protective measures; and (2) for delineating the recommended zone of caution for protection of tunnel water. Central criteria in identifying vulnerable locations are the spatial distribution of interlinked highly localized groundwater inflows measured inside the tunnel and the iteratively interpreted fracture zones. Among the relevant considerations for assessing risk are the large volume of flow in the tunnel, the irregular distribution of potentially hazardous human activities, and the interplay of natural and human-influenced factors. The study demonstrates a visual and expressive approach using GIS to support sound land-use planning and water resource protection, based on the geology and taking into account of the dynamics of the underground construction.

Preface

Preface

A Serially Complete U.S. Dataset of Temperature and Precipitation for Decision Support Systems

The effect of missing data can result in errors that exhibit temporal and spatial patterns in climatological and meteorological research applications. Many climate related tools perform best with a serially complete dataset (SCD). To support the National Agricultural Decision Support System (NADSS), a SCD with no missing data values for daily temperature and precipitation for the United States was developed using a self-calibrating data quality control (QC) library. The library performs two primary functions: identifies outliers and provides estimates to replace missing data values and outliers. This study presents the development of the SCD and the QC library in detail. An in-depth evaluation in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) for the SCD for the period of 1975-2004 is provided. The study shows an impressively low average RMSE in the range of 2.27 to 3.58°F for temperature and 0.07 to 0.23 inch for precipitation for the whole country for 30 years. The goal of this study is to enhance drought risk assessment and environmental risk analysis.

Sensitivity of ecotoxicological tests in analysis of superfund sites

During the analysis of environmental risk posed by hazardous waste disposal sites, ecological impact on whole ecosystems should be assessed. It requires a complex testing scheme where surrogate species represent key elements of the ecosystem. However, different organisms are exposed to a differing degree, also, their sensitivity to the same contaminant may vary. A possible way to determine which test reflects most the actual toxic conditions, correlation can be calculated between the measured ecological parameter (such as growth inhibition, mortality, etc.) and a contaminant gradient. The basic aim of this study was to determine which ecotoxicological test shows the best correlation with the measured analytical parameters. The selected tests were Lemna minor (representing primary producers), Thamnocephalus platyurus (a primary consumer organism) and Vibrio fischeri (decomposer). When testing soil samples, the Thamnocephalus test showed excellent consistency with most contaminants but was oversensitive in the case of groundwater samples. The Vibrio fischeri bioluminescence inhibition test (ToxAlert) behaved in a different way, reflecting well the distribution of most contaminants in groundwater samples. Finally, Lemna test proved to be completely inadequate.

Environmental risk analysis of ultraviolet phototherapy centres in Ireland

Ultraviolet (UV) radiation is commonly used in the treatment of dermatological conditions such as psoriasis. It is known that high levels of exposure to UV radiation (UVR) will increase the risk of adverse biological effects. Exposure limit values for UVR have been developed by the International Commission on Non-Ionising Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) and occupational exposure to phototherapy staff should be kept within these limits. The use of environmental controls such as warning signs, good ventilation and UV-opaque curtains will significantly reduce the risks to staff, patients and members of the public. The aim of the study is to identify hazards in phototherapy centres and present recommendations for reducing risks. An environmental risk assessment has been carried out at eleven phototherapy centres in the Republic of Ireland. The study assessed a number of areas such as patient safety, staff safety, room design and UV leakage measurements. The majority of clinics are well designed and there is consistent use of protective equipment. The results show that on the whole there is a satisfactory level of risk management in phototherapy centres. Recommendations on maintaining good safety standards are presented.