Environmental Risk Analysis Research Articles

Approach to environmental risk analysis for the main monuments in a historical city

Abstract The analysis of environmental risk in historical cities facilitates the development of conservation strategies that can minimize the deterioration of historical heritage sites. Risk maps built with GIS software provide information about the probability of the main hazards in a region, and is a very useful tool to identify, evaluate and prioritize the restoration budget of a city in order to manage preventive conservation. In this paper, new methodologies are applied based on the vulnerability matrix and its relationship with static and structural factors, climate conditions, air quality and social agents. This technique has some obvious advantages in the application of risk analysis for cultural heritage conservation, such as the capability of simultaneous risk assessment and geographical references. The vulnerability study implies an on-site diagnosis analysis and requires an adapted protocol for archaeological heritage. The validation of this methodology was carried out in the historical town of Merida (Spain) with a GIS application (ArcGIS software), where the main monuments of this UNESCO World Heritage site were studied.

The legal environmental risk analysis (LERA) sample of mining and the environment in Turkish legislation

As advancing technology and increasing demands for natural resources continue to mount pressure on the environment, environmental conservation and sustainable management have become ever more important. Individual countries have been increasingly taking action to reduce environmental destruction caused by human activities in an attempt to find a balance in between the necessary exploitation of resources and environmental conservation. In Turkey, the struggle between environmental conservation and mining activities is set within the legal context, with the requisite legal regulations (which describe various procedures) in the midst of being updated or renewed. The legal environmental risk analysis (LERA), beginning by discussing the main legal regulations of environmental conservation in relation to mining activities, defines basic environmental components which form the basis of environmental conservation in relation to mining, and analyzes the impact of mining on each component. The analysis (LERA) finishes with an evaluation of the components as they currently stand and makes some suggestions for the improvement of insufficient regulations.

Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks—heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm

We summarise our recent efforts on the policy-level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below.

Environmental Derivatives, Risk Analysis, and Conservation Management

AbstractTwo key challenges in conservation management are: (1) how to quantify and manage the risk that natural populations will fall below critical thresholds and (2) how to fund recovery plans should a population do so. Statistically estimated, process‐based simulation models of two distinct fish populations are used to forecast the species population levels, and capture the risk of crossing a management defined trigger point. We show how to calculate the environmental derivative price, which is the amount a risk‐neutral investor would require for promising a pay‐out should the species abundance fall below the trigger level. The approach provides the potential for environmental derivatives to support species recovery, and a method for measuring the underlying “health” of a managed population and calculating risk‐cost tradeoffs among alternative management strategies.

ОцінкА екологічниХ ризикіВ прИ складуваннІ зношениХ автомобільниХ шиН нА звалищаХ

Constantly growing number of used tyres because of intensive development of transport links and increase of economic importance of transportation in the world, requires new principles of treatment of used tyres. Today, the most common practice of recovery of waste tyres in the world is their storage in landfills, which, means only temporary solution of the problem of cumulation. Though used tyres as wastes refer to IV class of danger, nowadays little attention is paid to the issue of environmental risks and public health when cumulating the wastes in landfills. The article represents a comprehensive analysis of environmental risks and negative consequences of influence of the contaminants from the tyres waste on the environment. We have analyzed the sources of these risks and their consequences for the atmosphere, soil, water and human health. We have proved that due to physical and chemical properties of tyres, which they continue to store after operation, the practice of their recovery or recycling to produce secondary material and energy resources is more efficient in contrast to storage in landfills. We have estimated the ecological and economic damage from pollution of environment components in case of fire on the tyre landfill.

Methodologies and special considerations for environmental risk analysis of genetically modified aquatic biocontrol organisms

Genetic biocontrol of invasive aquatic species proposes to introduce, for control purposes, a genetically modified (GM) version of an invasive fish species to a targeted aquatic environment. Safe deployment and long term use of such technologies will depend on identifying and managing possible unintended effects to the natural environment. Environmental risk analysis (ERA) is a method for identifying the likelihood and consequences of unintended impacts, and for developing risk management strategies. For the unique situation of genetically modified biocontrol organisms (GMBOs), we review the latest thinking in ERA methodologies for GM fish and explore how terminology and assumptions from ERAs of traditional, non-modified biocontrol organisms and GM fish will need to be recast in ERAs of GMBOs. We also outline some special considerations that an ERA of a GMBOs will have to contend with: non-intuitive potential hazards; uncertainty introduced by extrapolating from domestic systems to natural ecosystems; redundancy in risk management options; and challenges of stakeholder engagement related to new technologies.

Crop to wild gene flow: Does more sophisticated research provide better risk assessment?

Research into introgression, the permanent incorporation of alleles of one species into another, is flourishing and gives new insights into evolution and speciation. The possible transfer of transgenes from crop species to wild relatives is of major concern for regulators. Applicants that want to introduce a genetically modified (GM) crop on the European market need to indicate the likelihood of introgression and its anticipated effects in an Environmental Risk Analysis (ERA). The European Food Safety Association (EFSA) and competent authorities of different countries evaluate the ERA. Predicting which crop alleles will or will not be permanently incorporated into wild populations requires, apart from information on seed production of hybrids, information on how these crop alleles are associated with fitness. Advances in genetics open new avenues to address this question in more detail. We argue, however, that, even with the best techniques, predicting introgression from crop to wild species will always have a considerable margin of uncertainty. One must therefore be prudent to demand more detailed research for the ERA, especially since the possible harm of transgenes in natural populations remains so poorly defined by regulators.

曲阜市大沂河水体重金属污染及健康风险评价

对山东曲阜市大沂河地表水中的铜、铅、镉、锌、锰5种重金属进行了健康风险评价，应用美国环境保护局推荐的健康风险评价模型，分别计算出化学致癌物和非致癌物的风险等级，评价了各种重金属通过饮水途径及皮肤接触途径所致的健康风险。结果表明健康风险的大小依次为Cd > Pb > Cu > Mn > Zn，大沂河水体中此5种重金属所导致的年健康风险水平超过国际辐射防护委员会推荐的最大可接受风险水平5.0×10−5a−1，因此应该提高水体质量，以减少水体中重金属污染对人体健康的伤害,维护生态平衡和人类的可持续发展。 The paper introduced the research of the water environmental health risk assessment of Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn, Mn in Dayihe River in Shandong province based on the model for water environmental health risk analysis recommended by the United States Environment Protection Agency. The levels of risk about chemical carcinogen and non chemical carcinogen were calculated respectively. The health risk caused by drinking water and dermal contact was evaluated. The results show that the order of risk is Cd > Pb > Cu > Mn > Zn, and the total health risk for individual person per year caused by five heavy metals is higher than the maximum tolerable value of 5.0 × 10−5a−1 recommended by ICRP. In order to decrease the damage to human health and maintain the ecological balance and sustainable development of human beings, the water quality should be improved.

Major Aspects of Development of Sustainable Investment Environment in Real Estate Industry

Ever increasing ecological treats and unlimited, accelerated economic growth shall be evaluated in interaction with each other. In real estate industry investment environment unable to ensure sustainability without conformity of other economic sectors with the criteria of sustainable development. In practice entrepreneurs devoting insufficient attention to the outcome of a construction process, underestimate its political, economical, technological, social and ecological aspects. This paper focus on analysis of economic consequences of integrating of environmental sustainability into corporate strategies.Financial and environmental risk analysis identified the key factors influencing sustainability of real estate industry and proposes environmentally friendly solutions for robust economic growth within the industry. That creates the economic and technical grounds of competitiveness for construction companies. For the purpose of maintaining competitiveness and growth in different economic cycles, entrepreneurs expected to embrace economic, environmental and technological innovation as instruments for enhancement of sustainable development.

The health risk of the agricultural production in potentially contaminated sites: an environmental-health risk analysis

Rural areas are often interested by pollution phenomena generated by agricultural activities with a high use of pesticides and/or by anthropic activities, such as industrial plants or illegal waste disposal sites, which may cause even long-range contamination. The risk for human health from the pollutants present in the environment can be quantitatively evaluated by the environmental health risk analysis set out in the Italian Legislative Decree no. 152/2006 (Italian Regulation, 2006). This analysis is the best technical-normative tool to estimate the health risks linked to the pollutants present in the environment but it does not consider the specificity of agricultural soils or the contamination of agricultural products. This study aims to provide this missing technical-normative data by identifying and applying a suitable methodology to evaluate the health risk caused by the ingestion of agricultural products grown in contaminated soils. The risk analysis was applied to two contaminated areas in southern Italy using an innovative methodology based on widely accepted parameters for the determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) soil-plant bio-transfer factor in the case of horticultural crops. In addition, some concentration limits of PAHs in agricultural soils are proposed that may be of help to the competent authorities (health agencies, local authorities) in delineating the areas requiring strict health surveillance of the food products cultivated.

The health risk of the agricultural production in potentially contaminated sites: an environmental-health risk analysis

Rural areas are often interested by pollution phenomena generated by agricultural activities with a high use of pesticides and/or by anthropic activities, such as industrial plants or illegal waste disposal sites, which may cause even long-range contamination. The risk for human health from the pollutants present in the environment can be quantitatively evaluated by the environmental health risk analysis set out in the Italian Legislative Decree no. 152/2006 (Italian Regulation, 2006). This analysis is the best technical-normative tool to estimate the health risks linked to the pollutants present in the environment but it does not consider the specificity of agricultural soils or the contamination of agricultural products. This study aims to provide this missing technical-normative data by identifying and applying a suitable methodology to evaluate the health risk caused by the ingestion of agricultural products grown in contaminated soils. The risk analysis was applied to two contaminated areas in southern Italy using an innovative methodology based on widely accepted parameters for the determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) soil-plant bio-transfer factor in the case of horticultural crops. In addition, some concentration limits of PAHs in agricultural soils are proposed that may be of help to the competent authorities (health agencies, local authorities) in delineating the areas requiring strict health surveillance of the food products cultivated.

Environmental Risk Analysis: Robustness Is Essential for Precaution

Precaution is a relevant and much-invoked value in environmental risk analysis, as witnessed by the ongoing vivid discussion about the precautionary principle (PP). This article argues (i) against purely decision-theoretic explications of PP; (ii) that the construction, evaluation, and use of scientific models falls under the scope of PP; and (iii) that epistemic and decision-theoretic robustness are essential for precautionary policy making. These claims are elaborated and defended by means of case studies from climate science and conservation biology.

Normes OEPP EPPO Standards Guidelines on pest risk analysis Lignes directrices pour I’analyse du risque phytosanitaire

EPPO BulletinVolume 42, Issue 3 p. 455-456 Free Access Normes OEPP EPPO Standards Guidelines on pest risk analysis Lignes directrices pour I’analyse du risque phytosanitaire First published: 12 December 2012 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2338.2011.02590.xAboutSectionsPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Approval EPPO Standards are approved by EPPO Council. The date of approval appears in each individual standard. In the terms of Article II of the IPPC, EPPO Standards are Regional Standards for the members of EPPO. Review EPPO Standards are subject to periodic review and amendment. The next review date for this set of EPPO Standards is decided by the EPPO Working Party on Phytosanitary Regulations. Amendment record Amendments will be issued as necessary, numbered and dated. The dates of amendment appear in each individual standard (as appropriate). Distribution EPPO Standards are distributed by the EPPO Secretariat to all EPPO member governments. Copies are available to any interested person, under particular conditions, upon request to the EPPO Secretariat. Scope EPPO Guidelines on Pest Risk Analysis are intended to be used by National Plant Protection Organizations, in their capacity as bodies responsible for the establishment of phytosanitary regulations and the application of phytosanitary measures while respecting the requirements of the International Plant Protection Convention, ISPM no. 1 (Phytosanitary principles for the protection of plants and the application of phytosanitary measures in international trade), ISPM no. 2 (Framework for pest risk analysis) and ISPM no. 11 (Pest risk analysis for quarantine pests including analysis of environmental risks and living modified organisms). They are also used by the technical bodies of EPPO to formulate recommendations on phytosanitary measures to the National Plant Protection Organizations. Outline of requirements EPPO Standards on pest risk analysis provide detailed guidance on the analysis of risk from individual pests for a defined area, in relation to their potential status as quarantine pests. The standards are based on the many years of experience of EPPO experts in the EPPO Panel on Pest Risk Analysis development, EPPO Panel on Phytosanitary Measures and EPPO Panel on Invasive Alien Species, who have assessed the status of pests as candidates for the EPPO A1 and A2 lists of pests recommended for regulation, and who have analysed the criteria used for this purpose. They conform to ISPM no. 2 (Framework for pest risk analysis) and ISPM no. 11 (Pest risk analysis for quarantine pests including analysis of environmental risks and living modified organisms) and use the terms of ISPM no. 5 (Glossary of phytosanitary terms). Existing EPPO Standards in this series Three EPPO Standards on pest risk analysis have already been approved and published. Each standard is numbered in the style PM 5/1 (1), meaning an EPPO Standard on Phytosanitary Measures (PM), in series no. 5 (Guidelines on pest risk analysis), in this case standard no. 1, first version. The existing standards are: PM 5/1(1) Guidelines on pest risk analysis (PRA). No. 1. Checklist of information required for pest risk analysis (PRA). Bulletin OEPP/EPPO Bulletin 23, 191–198. PM 5/2 (2). No. 2 Pest risk analysis on detection of a pest in an imported consignment. Bulletin OEPP/EPPO, Bulletin 32, 235–239. PM 5/3(5) Decision-support scheme for quarantine pests – version 2011. This standard is published on the EPPO website (http://archives.eppo.org/EPPOStandards/pra.htm). A computer program CAPRA has been developed by the EPPO Secretariat in the framework of the European Union 7th framework program protect PRATIQUE (Grant agreement No 212 459) and with the support of the EPPO Panels. This program is based on the latest version of the Decision-support scheme for quarantine pests. This software aims to assist pest risk analysts in running the EPPO decision-support scheme for Pest Risk Analysis. It includes links to useful datasets, examples and guidance to ensure consistency in performing pest risk analysis. It can be downloaded at http://capra.eppo.org/. Two new standards are published in this issue. References IPPC (1997) International Plant Protection Convention (new revised text). FAO, Rome (IT). Google Scholar IPPC (2010) Glossary of phytosanitary terms. ISPM no. 5 in International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures. IPPC Secretariat, FAO, Rome (IT). https://www.ippc.int/file_uploaded/1273490046_ISPM_05_2010_E.pdf [accessed on 17 October 2011]. Google Scholar OEPP/EPPO (2011) EPPO Standard PM 1/2 EPPO A1 and A2 lists of pests recommended for regulation in EPPO countries. http://www.eppo.org/QUARANTINE/quarantine.htm [accessed on 17 October 2011]. Google Scholar Volume42, Issue3December 2012Pages 455-456 ReferencesRelatedInformation

Risk of Large Oil Spills: A Statistical Analysis in the Aftermath of Deepwater Horizon

The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that followed the explosion of the exploration platform Deepwater Horizon on 20 April 2010 was the largest accidental oil spill so far. In this paper we evaluate the risk of such very severe oil spills based on global historical data from our Energy-Related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) and investigate if an accident of this size could have been "expected". We also compare the risk of oil spills from such accidents in exploration and production to accidental spills from other activities in the oil chain (tanker ship transport, pipelines, storage/refinery) and analyze the two components of risk, frequency and severity (quantity of oil spilled) separately. This detailed analysis reveals the differences in the structure of the risk between different spill sources, differences in trends over time and it allows in particular assessing the risk of very severe events such as the Deepwater Horizon spill. Such top down risk assessment can serve as an important input to decision making by complementing bottom up engineering risk assessment and can be combined with impact assessment in environmental risk analysis.

Nonparametric estimation of benchmark doses in environmental risk assessment

An important statistical objective in environmental risk analysis is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called benchmark doses (BMDs), that induce a pre-specified benchmark response in a dose-response experiment. In such settings, representations of the risk are traditionally based on a parametric dose-response model. It is a well-known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric form is misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low-dose inferences can result. We apply a nonparametric approach for calculating benchmark doses, based on an isotonic regression method for dose-response estimation with quantal-response data (Bhattacharya and Kong, 2007). We determine the large-sample properties of the estimator, develop bootstrap-based confidence limits on the BMDs, and explore the confidence limits' small-sample properties via a short simulation study. An example from cancer risk assessment illustrates the calculations.

Exploitation and conservation of fish genetic resources in Africa: issues and priorities for aquaculture development and research

AbstractAfrica harbours a rich biological diversity of native fish resources. Recognition of the potential to use these resources to make significant contributions towards improving African food security through aquaculture has existed for some time. A key challenge, however, is achieving compatibility between the two urgent, but sometimes conflicting, goals of reducing poverty and food insecurity in Africa through aquaculture development while paying due attention to the conservation of natural biodiversity and fish genetic resources (FiGR). In this paper we highlight the overarching challenges concerning the conservation and exploitation of FiGR for the long‐term development of aquaculture for food production in Africa. We address the major issues requiring attention in genetic improvement programs in order to take full advantage of the highly diverse wild FiGR in Africa, and we expand on strategies such as zoning, environmental risk analysis and molecular characterization approaches that can be used to minimize the potential harm to wild FiGR arising from aquaculture activities and future development. Finally, we discuss the challenge of strengthening local capacity. The enhancement of local capacity is essential because it will enable the fundamental link required to achieve the desired outcome of increasing the productivity of aquatic animals for food in Africa in a sustainable manner. We trust that this paper will provide a good basis for an in‐depth discussion of the subject, as well as guidance on future research and development priorities for the compatible exploitation and conservation of FiGR in Africa.

Methodology for Definition of Yellow Fever Priority Areas, Based on Environmental Variables and Multiple Correspondence Analyses

Yellow fever (YF) is endemic in much of Brazil, where cases of the disease are reported every year. Since 2008, outbreaks of the disease have occurred in regions of the country where no reports had been registered for decades, which has obligated public health authorities to redefine risk areas for the disease. The aim of the present study was to propose a methodology of environmental risk analysis for defining priority municipalities for YF vaccination, using as example, the State of São Paulo, Brazil. The municipalities were divided into two groups (affected and unaffected by YF) and compared based on environmental parameters related to the disease's eco-epidemiology. Bivariate analysis was used to identify statistically significant associations between the variables and virus circulation. Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was used to evaluate the relationship among the variables and their contribution to the dynamics of YF in Sao Paulo. The MCA generated a factor that was able to differentiate between affected and unaffected municipalities and was used to determine risk levels. This methodology can be replicated in other regions, standardized, and adapted to each context.

Social Learning Through Environmental Risk Analysis of Biodiversity and GM Maize in South Africa

ABSTRACTEnvironmental risk analyses (ERAs) can benefit from participatory methods that enhance social learning, whereby diverse participants share knowledge and perspectives to learn about complex socio‐ecological systems, develop a collective understanding of the risk problem and build support for specific solutions. We used surveys and interviews to investigate social learning among 22 stakeholders during a participatory ERA workshop to evaluate risks of genetically modified maize to South African biodiversity. The ERA process incorporated methodologies designed to enhance social learning, such as open communication, constructive conflict and extended engagement. We observed that social learning occurred as participants understood new information and perspectives, began thinking systemically and transformed their impressions of other participants. In this workshop, they did not develop a shared understanding of the ERA process or priority risks. However, the ERA workshop did engender social learning about other stakeholders, socio‐ecological systems and risk, creating a foundation for longer, iterative engagement needed to build shared understanding of complex problems and solutions related to biodiversity governance. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment

Techno-economic and environmental risk analysis for advanced marine propulsion systems

A Techno-economic, Environmental and Risk Analysis (TERA) computational method has been developed for marine propulsion systems. The method comprises several numerical models which simulate the life cycle operation of marine gas turbines installed on marine vessels. Using a system-of-systems approach, the effect of operational profile can be taken into consideration in the assessment of a novel prime mover. Stochastic estimates of the powerplant’s life cycle net present cost are generated. The ship performance model plays a central role in the TERA method. This is an integrated virtual marine vessel operating environment that allows the calculation of engine performance and exhaust emissions (nitric oxide (NOx), carbon monoxide CO, carbon dioxide (CO2) and unburned hydrocarbon (UHC)) for a given trip. The life of the gas turbine is assessed through a creep-life prediction method, which plays a significant role on the maintenance cost calculation in the economic model. The economic model predicts net present cost over the operating life of the vessel using stochastic analysis of the earning capacity of the ship powered by the chosen prime mover. The TERA simulation of a 25MW marine gas turbine powering a RoPax fast ferry in an integrated full electric propulsion system is presented as an illustration of the method. The example includes aspects of the systemic analysis of engine and ship performance, accompanied by environmental effect and engine life prediction, coupled with an economic feasibility stochastic study of the selected propulsion system under several journey and economic scenarios.

Constrained Parameters in Applications: Review of Issues and Approaches

This review article provides an introduction to statistical issues that arise when some statistical model parameters are constrained. This often happens in applications, in particular in testing for variance components (e.g., genomics) and construction of one-sided confidence intervals (e.g., environmental risk analysis). Heuristic explanations are provided, and a number of general and recent statistical results that appeared in statistical literature are summarized for use in applications. Simulation results are shown for illustration of consequences of ignoring parameters on the boundary. Special attention is paid to likelihood ratio tests, but other approaches to confidence interval construction, such as Wald, bootstrap, and Bayesian are also briefly discussed. This paper presents examples from the risk assessment field and genomics, but all conclusions apply to whenever one-sided testing is conducted. Recommendations are provided for dealing with parameters on the boundary for a range of situations.