Techno-economic and environmental risk analysis for advanced marine propulsion systems

Abstract

A Techno-economic, Environmental and Risk Analysis (TERA) computational method has been developed for marine propulsion systems. The method comprises several numerical models which simulate the life cycle operation of marine gas turbines installed on marine vessels. Using a system-of-systems approach, the effect of operational profile can be taken into consideration in the assessment of a novel prime mover. Stochastic estimates of the powerplant’s life cycle net present cost are generated. The ship performance model plays a central role in the TERA method. This is an integrated virtual marine vessel operating environment that allows the calculation of engine performance and exhaust emissions (nitric oxide (NOx), carbon monoxide CO, carbon dioxide (CO2) and unburned hydrocarbon (UHC)) for a given trip. The life of the gas turbine is assessed through a creep-life prediction method, which plays a significant role on the maintenance cost calculation in the economic model. The economic model predicts net present cost over the operating life of the vessel using stochastic analysis of the earning capacity of the ship powered by the chosen prime mover. The TERA simulation of a 25MW marine gas turbine powering a RoPax fast ferry in an integrated full electric propulsion system is presented as an illustration of the method. The example includes aspects of the systemic analysis of engine and ship performance, accompanied by environmental effect and engine life prediction, coupled with an economic feasibility stochastic study of the selected propulsion system under several journey and economic scenarios.