Entire Analysis Period Research Articles

Coral reefs chronically exposed to river sediment plumes in the southwestern Caribbean: Rosario Islands, Colombia

Politicians do not acknowledge the devastating impacts riverine sediments can have on healthy coral reef ecosystems during environmental debates in Caribbean countries. Therefore, regional and/or local decision makers do not implement the necessary measures to reduce fluvial sediment fluxes on coral reefs. The Magdalena River, the main contributor of continental fluxes into the Caribbean Sea, delivers water and sediment fluxes into the Rosario Islands National Park, an important marine protected area in the southwestern Caribbean. Until now, there is no scientific consensus on the presence of sediment fluxes from the Magdalena River in the coral reefs of the Rosario Islands. Our hypothesis is that high sediment and freshwater inputs from the Magdalena have been present at higher acute levels during the last decade than previously thought, and that these runoff pulses are not flashy. We use in-situ calibrated MODIS satellite images to capture the spatiotemporal variability of the distribution of suspended sediment over the coral reefs. Furthermore, geochemical data are analyzed to detect associated sedimentation rates and pollutant dispersion into the coastal zone. Results confirm that turbidity levels have been much higher than previous values presented by national environmental authorities on coral reefs off Colombia over the last decade. During the 2003–2013-period most of the Total Suspended Sediments (TSS) values witnessed in the sampled regions were above 10mg/l, a threshold value of turbidity for healthy coral reef waters. TSS concentrations throughout the analyzed time were up to 62.3mg/l. Plume pulses were more pronounced during wet seasons of La Niña events in 2002–2003, 2007–2008, and 2009–2010. Reconstructed time series of MODIS TSS indicates that coral reef waters were exposed to river plumes between 19.6 and 47.8% of the entire period of analysis (2000−2013). Further analyses of time series of water discharge and sediment load into the coastal zone during the last two decades show temporal increases in water discharge and sediment load of 28% and 48%, respectively. 210Pb dating results from two cores indicate sedimentation rates of ~0.75cm/y of continentally exported clastic muddy sediments that are being deposited on the carbonatic shelf. The cores contain sediments with heavy metals and their concentrations are frequently above the ecologically accepted standards. Overall, the last decade has witnessed stronger magnitudes in fluvial fluxes to the coastal region, which probably coincide with associated declines in healthy coral cover and water quality. Our results emphasize the importance of local stressors, such as runoff and dispersion of turbid plumes, as opposed to ocean warming, disease and hurricanes, which have played a larger role on other coral reefs in the Caribbean. Coral reef management across the southwestern Caribbean, a coastal region influenced by continental fluxes of numerous rivers flowing from the Andes, may only be effective when land and marine-based stressors are simultaneously mitigated.

Struktura oszczędności finansowych gospodarstw domowych w Polsce w latach 2000–2014

The paper analyzed the size and structure of the households financial savings in Poland in the years 2000–2014. Throughout the entire analysis period the value of saving increased significantly. Bank deposits were the basic category in which the personal financial surpluses were invested. The share of alternative investments which were based on the securities markets rose rapidly in the whole structure of households financial savings before the middle of 2007 at the expense of the fraction of bank deposits. After the outbreak of the financial crisis in the summer of 2007 the share of bank deposits temporary increased while the percentage of the alternative investments diminished. During the entire analysis period the importance of pension products increased gradually.

Poziom stóp procentowych a wielkość i struktura oszczędności finansowych gospodarstw domowych w Polsce w latach 2000–2013

The paper analyzes the size and structure of the households financial savingsin Poland in the years 2000–2013. Throughout the entire analysis period the valueof savings increased significantly. Bank deposits were the basic category in whichthe personal financial surpluses were invested. The share of alternative investments,primarily securities, rose rapidly in the whole structure of households financial savingsbefore the middle of 2007 at the expense of bank deposits. After the outbreakof the financial crisis in the summer of 2007 the share of bank deposits temporaryincreased while the percentage of the alternative investments diminished. Duringentire period the importance of pension products gradually increased.

Abortion Surveillance - United States, 2012.

PROBLEM/CONDITION Since 1969, CDC has conducted abortion surveillance to document the number and characteristics of women obtaining legal induced abortions in the United States. REPORTING PERIOD COVERED 2012. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM Each year, CDC requests abortion data from the central health agencies of 52 reporting areas (the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and New York City). The reporting areas provide this information voluntarily. For 2012, data were received from 49 reporting areas. For trend analysis, abortion data were evaluated from 47 areas that reported data every year during 2003-2012. Census and natality data, respectively, were used to calculate abortion rates (number of abortions per 1,000 women) and ratios (number of abortions per 1,000 live births). RESULTS A total of 699,202 abortions were reported to CDC for 2012. Of these abortions, 98.4% were from the 47 reporting areas that provided data every year during 2003-2012. Among these same 47 reporting areas, the abortion rate for 2012 was 13.2 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years, and the abortion ratio was 210 abortions per 1,000 live births. From 2011 to 2012, the total number and ratio of reported abortions decreased 4% and the abortion rate decreased 5%. From 2003 to 2012, the total number, rate, and ratio of reported abortions decreased 17%, 18%, and 14%, respectively, and reached their lowest level in 2012 for the entire period of analysis (2003-2012). In 2012 and throughout the period of analysis, women in their 20s accounted for the majority of abortions and had the highest abortion rates; women in their 30s and older accounted for a much smaller percentage of abortions and had lower abortion rates. In 2012, women aged 20-24 and 25-29 years accounted for 32.8% and 25.4% of all abortions, respectively, and had abortion rates of 23.3 and 18.9 abortions per 1,000 women aged 20-24 and 25-29 years, respectively. In contrast, women aged 30-34, 35-39, and ≥40 years accounted for 16.4%, 9.1%, and 3.7% of all abortions, respectively, and had abortion rates of 12.4, 7.3, and 2.8 abortions per 1,000 women aged 30-34 years, 35-39 years, and ≥40 years, respectively. Throughout the period of analysis, abortion rates decreased among women aged 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34 years by 24%, 18%, and 10%, respectively, whereas they increased among women aged ≥40 years by 8%. In 2012, adolescents aged 13 weeks remained consistently low (≤9.0%). In 2012, among the 40 reporting areas that included medical (nonsurgical) abortion on their reporting form, a total of 69.4% of abortions were performed by curettage at ≤13 weeks' gestation, 20.8% were performed by early medical abortion (a nonsurgical abortion at ≤8 weeks' gestation), and 8.7% were performed by curettage at >13 weeks' gestation; all other methods were uncommon. Among abortions performed at ≤8 weeks' gestation that were eligible on the basis of gestational age for early medical abortion, 30.8% were completed by this method. The percentage of abortions reported as early medical abortions increased 10% from 2011 to 2012. Deaths of women associated with complications from abortions for 2012 are being investigated as part of CDC's Pregnancy Mortality Surveillance System. In 2011, the most recent year for which data were available, two women were identified to have died as a result of complications from known legal induced abortions. No reported deaths were associated with known illegal induced abortions. INTERPRETATION Among the 47 areas that reported data every year during 2003-2012, the notable decreases that occurred during 2008-2011 in the total number, rate, and ratio of reported abortions continued from 2011 to 2012 and resulted in historic lows for all three measures of abortion. PUBLIC HEALTH ACTIONS The data in this report can help to identify groups of women at greatest risk for abortion and can be used to guide and evaluate prevention efforts. Because unintended pregnancy is the major contributor to abortion, and unintended pregnancies are rare among women who use the most effective methods of contraception, increasing access to and use of these methods can help further reduce the number of unintended pregnancies, and therefore abortions, performed in the United States.

Validation of SARAL/AltiKa significant wave height and wind speed observations over the North Indian Ocean

SARAL/AltiKa, a joint Ka-band altimetry mission of the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES) and Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) was successfully launched on February 25, 2013. The main purpose of this mission is to explore the ocean surface topography. As it is a Ka-band altimeter mission unlike other altimeters which were primarily in Ku-band, it is essential to calibrate and validate AltiKa data products before using the data for oceanographic applications. With this objective, two important geophysical parameters, Significant Wave Height (SWH) and Wind Speed (WS) from SARAL/AltiKa are inter-compared with those from 18 moored buoy stations in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) for a two year period from March 2013 to March 2015. SARAL/AltiKa GDR-T patch-2 version products are collocated with moored buoy observations with a collocation criteria of spatio-temporal window of 50km radius about the buoy location and 30min time for all the altimeter measurements. Following this, linear regression relations are developed and statistical analyses carried out to assess the performance of SARAL/AltiKa. The correlation between SARAL/AltiKa derived SWHs and those from moored buoys is 0.98m with a bias of −0.02m and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.15m at 95% confidence level. The WSs derived from SARAL/AltiKa Ka-band correlates reasonably well with buoy observations with a correlation coefficient of 0.91, bias of −0.28m/s and RMSE of 1.13m/s. The inter-comparison results are found to be interesting with a good agreement between SARAL/AltiKa and moored buoys observations of SWH and WS in the NIO where SWHs are less than ∼4m and WS are less than ∼13m/s during the entire analysis period.

Sensitivity of online coupled model to extreme pollution event over a mega city Delhi

Sensitivity of interactive Weather-Chemistry model has been examined to predict the air quality (1 and 3 days in advance) of Indian mega city Delhi during two identical extreme events of Diwali in 2012 and 2013. Analysis is conducted 3 days prior to 3 days later of Diwali day for both events to verify the rapid changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) due to widespread display of Diwali fireworks. The model successfully predicted the variability in PM2.5 during 2012 for the entire period of analysis with reasonable accuracy. Although model performed reasonably well until Diwali day in 2013 but it was unable to simulate rapid built up of PM2.5 (1500 μg−3 hourly average) during post Diwali day as it failed to capture unusual mid-night steep temperature gradient followed by a record lowering of boundary layer height. The predictability of the model and its limitation to micrometeorological processes are discussed in detail.

Variations in global tropical cyclone activity and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation since the midtwentieth century

AbstractThe Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) has been documented in previous studies to significantly impact tropical cyclone activity in all ocean basins. Most of these studies have utilized the Wheeler‐Hendon index. This index is only available since 1974, the period over which remotely sensed outgoing longwave radiation data has been available. Our study utilizes a long reconstructed MJO index, based on surface pressures, which extends back to 1905. We document consistent modulation of tropical cyclone activity by the MJO in all basins over this time period. These modulations are shown to be remarkably stable over the entire analysis period. We also examine the combined impacts of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the MJO on tropical cyclone activity in each basin over multidecadal time scales.

Comparison of indicators measuring the proportion of human immunodeficiency virus–infected persons with a suppressed viral load

PurposeThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention uses the last viral load to estimate the proportion of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected persons with a suppressed viral load. Several recent studies report that it may overestimate viral suppression in the population and have suggested using sustained viral suppression. The objective of this analysis is to compare these indicators. MethodsUsing New York City HIV surveillance data, two indicators were compared with a new one, weighted viral suppression, which accounts for both the status and duration of viral suppression. ResultsAmong 72,315 HIV-infected persons with at least one viral load measurement in New York City in 2013, 62,829 had at least one suppressed viral load, 58,041 had a suppressed last viral load, and 47,948 had sustained viral suppression. Compared with the weighted proportion (77.5%), the proportion based on last viral load suppression (80.3%) was slightly higher, and the proportion based on sustained viral suppression (66.3%) was substantially lower. ConclusionsThe indicator based on last viral load suppression is the most straightforward to calculate and understand and also approximates the weighted indicator, which measures viral suppression for the entire analysis period. Therefore, we support using the indicator based on last viral load suppression to monitor the National HIV/AIDS Strategy.

Pattern and trend in labour use in Indian agriculture: An analysis across major crops and states

The technological change in agriculture has made significant impacts on labour absorption, notably since green revolution. In this context the present study analyses the pattern and trend in labour absorption across major states and crops during the period of mid-1970s to 2010. The entire period of analysis has been sub-divided into two, upto mid-90s as first period and post-mid 90s till 2010 as the second period, broadly corresponding to the period of green revolution and market reforms, respectively. The analysis was carried out for rice and wheat, two major food crops and cotton and sugarcane, two major commercial crops. The results indicated that at national level, there is wide variation in the trend in labour absorption among the four crops under study: while a continuous decline has been observed in the case of wheat during the entire period, it has been continuously rising in the case of cotton. On the other hand, paddy and sugarcane depicted varying trends over the time- increasing labour absorption up to mid-1990s, but declining thereafter. This trend at national level corresponds to the spread of technological changes in agriculture.

The Impact of Subnational Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth: A Dynamic Analysis Approach

AbstractMuch previous research has analyzed the effect of state and local taxes and expenditures on economic growth, but usually in a static manner. In this paper, we use panel vector autoregression (PVAR) to examine the effects of taxes and expenditures on state income growth. This methodology allows us to treat all variables in the model as endogenously determined. Our approach allows us to address the endogeneity problem inherent in fiscal policy research as well as to obtain results for both the short term and intermediate term (up to six years). Consistent with prevailing wisdom, taxes are shown to have a negative effect on economic growth, but the effect only is present in the short run. Public capital spending has a positive effect on growth in both the short and intermediate terms. Operational expenditures exhibit positive effects on growth over the entire analysis period.

Cold In-Place Recycling as a Sustainable Pavement Practice

Pavement rehabilitation and reconstruction methods with CIR (cold in-place recycling) are alternatives that can effectively reduce the high stresses and waste produced by conventional pavement strategies. An attempt was made to predict the performance, particularly low-temperature cracking resistance characteristics of CIR mixtures. These were prepared with the mix design procedure developed at the URI (University of Rhode Island) for the FHW A (Federal Highway Administration) to reduce wide variations in the application ofCIR mixtures production. This standard was applied to RAP (reclaimed asphalt pavement) to produce CIR mixtures with CSS-lh asphalt emulsion as the additive. By adjusting the number of gyrations of the SGC (Superpave gyratory compactor) for compaction, the field density of 130 pcf was represented accurately. To secure a base line, HMA (hot mix asphalt) samples were produced according to the Superpave volumetric mix design procedure. The specimens were tested using the IDT (indirect tensile) tester according to the procedure of AASHTO T 322 procedure at temperatures of -20, -10 and 0 °C ( -4, 14, and 32 Gp, respectively). The obtained results for the creep compliance and tensile strength were used as input data for the MEPDG (mechanistic empirical pavement design gnide ). The analysis results indicated that no thermal or low-temperature cracking is expected over the entire analysis period of 20 years for both HMA and CIR mixtures. Thus, it appears that CIR is a sustainable rehabilitation technique which is also suitable for colder climates, and it is reconunended to conduct further investigation ofload-related distresses such as rotting and fatigue cracking.

黄淮海地区干旱变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

It is widely recognized that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and climate disasters have strongly increased with global warming. The area of influence of climate disasters has also increased,which has had adverse effects on sustainable social and economic development. Drought is a recurring natural phenomenon,and is associated with a deficit of water resources over a large geographic area and long duration. Drought is attracting increased attention from scholars,with a focus on its intensity,duration and areal extent in northern China within the context of global change. Investigation of the variation of drought and regional response to climate change is very important to agricultural production, and can provide a reference fordeveloping appropriate measures to reduce droughts on the Huang-Huai-Hai( 3H) Plain. At present,relevant research is more inclined to study meteorological drought itself, without consideration of drought characteristics in different phases in crop-growing seasons and the climate background of global change. In this paper,we determine drought characteristics in all four seasons and the winter wheat growing season on the 3H Plain,together with the effects of climate change. Based on data of 34 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2011,a relative moisture index was calculated to investigate the spatial pattern and temporal variability of drought characteristics on the 3H Plain. The results show varying degrees of drought in spring,winter and the winter wheat growing season. Drought frequency exceeded 90% over the past 50 years on the plain,with spring and winter the driest seasons. There were high-frequency drought areas in central and northern parts of the plain during spring,winter and the winter wheat growing season. The regional distribution of drought intensity and frequency showed an increasing tendency from south to north. A wet trend was detected on the plain in the winter wheat growing season over the last 50 years. However,the relative moisture index changed since 1978. That is to say,the index had an increasing trend from 1961 to 1980 when the plain was wetter; the index decreased from 1980 to 2011 when it was drier. Overall,although drought eased over the entire analysis period,a serious drought tendency has emerged over the last 20 years. In addition,temporal variability of the relative moisture index was significantly correlated with precipitation,solar radiation and relative humidity. This indicates that drought characteristics of the plain were more sensitive to these three climate variables. This has received increased attention in recent years with respect to addressing climate change. The results of our study indicate an arid trend,with increase of temperature in spring and summer on the 3H Plain. Therefore,relevant agencies should create an early warning system of extreme weather events and natural disasters,toward improvement of future regional agricultural scientific management and decision support systems in agricultural production. These agencies should also adapt to climate change by selecting strongly drought-resistant crop varieties and by adjusting cultivation methods and management measures,especially irrigation measures aimed at spring drought on the 3H Plain.

PHP5 - Are the Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical Sectors Defensive Relative to the S&P 500?

The health care sector is widely regarded as a defensive play in the stock market. We analyzed the performance of a pharmaceutical and a biotechnology index from March 2000 through April 2013 alongside the S&P 500. We categorized the S&P 500 from March 2000 through April 2013 into bull and bear markets. During this time there were three bull markets and three bear markets. Bull and bear markets were defined as changes in the S&P 500 of more than 20%. We followed the AMEX Pharmaceutical (^DRG) and Biotechnology (^BTK) Indices to represent their sectors. We compared the returns of the sectors with the overall market and also calculated their correlated volatility (beta) with the S&P 500. For the entire analysis period, the S&P 500 returned 4.59% while ^DRG and ^BTK returned 25.43% and 252.83%, respectively. During the bear markets, the S&P 500 lost at an average annual rate of 27.17%, while ^DRG and ^BTK lost at annual rates of 12.16% and 21.99%, respectively. Though ^DRG performed best during the bear markets, it was a laggard in the bull market gaining 8.15% annually, while the S&P 500 and ^BTK had 22.04% and 31.97% annual returns, respectively. The overall beta during our analysis period was 0.63 for ^DRG and 1.07 for ^BTK. Both the AMEX Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Indices fell at a lesser rate than the S&P 500 during bear markets. The Pharmaceutical Index may be the more defensive play as it lost at an average annual rate of more than two times less than the S&P 500. However, the Biotechnology Index gained almost four times more than the Pharmaceutical Index in bull markets and also outperformed the S&P 500 by almost 10 percentage points during bull markets.

Detecting climate change signals in Saudi Arabia using mean annual surface air temperatures

Climate change signals in Saudi Arabia are investigated using the surface air temperature (SAT) data of 19 meteorological stations, well distributed across the country. Analyses are performed using cumulative sum, cumulative annual mean, and the Mann–Kendall rank statistical test for the period of 1978–2010. A notable change in SAT for the majority of stations is found around 1997. The results show a negative temperature trend (cooling) for all stations during the first period (1978–1997), followed by a positive trend (warming) in the second period (1998–2010) with reference to the entire period of analysis. The Mann–Kendall test confirms that there is no abrupt cooling at any station during the analysis period, reflecting the warming trend across the country. The warming trend is found to be 0.06 °C/year, while the cooling trend is 0.03 °C/year, which are statistically significant.

Colorectal Surgery Surgical Site Infection Reduction Program: A National Surgical Quality Improvement Program–Driven Multidisciplinary Single-Institution Experience

Surgical site infections (SSI) are a major cause of morbidity in surgical patients and they increase health care costs considerably. Colorectal surgery is consistently associated with high SSI rates. No single intervention has demonstrated efficacy in reducing colorectal SSIs. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) is a nationally validated system that uses clinically abstracted data on surgical patients and their outcomes to assist participating institutions drive quality improvement. A multidisciplinary team was assembled to develop a colorectal SSI-reduction bundle at an academic tertiary care medical center. The ACS NSQIP data were used to identify patterns of SSIs during a 2-year period. Multiple interventions across the entire surgical episode of care were developed and implemented in January 2011. Monthly ACS NSQIP data were used to track progress. Our ACS NSQIP overall colorectal SSI rate for 2009 and 2010 was 9.8%. One year after implementation of the SSI reduction bundle, we demonstrated a significant decline (p < 0.05) in both overall and superficial SSIs, to 4.0% and 1.5%, respectively. Organ space infections declined to 2.6%, which was not a significant change (p = 0.10). During the entire analysis period (2009 to 2011), there was no change in our colorectal-specific Surgical Care Improvement Program performance. Using our ACS NSQIP colorectal SSI outcomes, a multidisciplinary team designed a colorectal SSI reduction bundle that resulted in a substantial and sustained reduction in SSIs. Our study is not able to identify which specific elements contributed to the reduction.

지원벡터기계를 이용한 출혈을 일으킨 흰쥐에서의 생존 예측

Hemorrhagic shock is a common cause of death in emergency rooms. Early diagnosis of hemorrhagic shock makes it possible for physicians to treat patients successfully. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to select an optimal survival prediction model using physiological parameters for the two analyzed periods: two and five minutes before and after the bleeding end. We obtained heart rates, mean arterial pressures, respiration rates and temperatures from 45 rats. These physiological parameters were used for the training and testing data sets of survival prediction models using an artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). We applied a 5-fold cross validation method to avoid over-fitting and to select the optimal survival prediction model. In conclusion, SVM model showed slightly better accuracy than ANN model for survival prediction during the entire analysis period.

A Temporal Domain Decomposition Algorithmic Scheme for Large-Scale Dynamic Traffic Assignment

ABSTRACT With emergent interest of Simulation-Based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (SBDTA) in the field of transportation network modeling, deployment of SBDTA models for traffic operations and transportation planning have increased significantly in recent years. In parallel, research and development of innovative approaches of the SBDTA model have enhanced the quality of both the assignment component, i.e, improvement of convergence quality of the Dynamic User Equilibrium (DUE) problem, and the traffic simulation element. However, computational requirement remains to be one of the great challenges for DTA implementations on large-scale networks with a long analysis period. This paper presents a temporal decomposition scheme for large spatial- and temporal-scale dynamic traffic assignment, in which the entire analysis period is divided into Epochs. Vehicle assignment is performed sequentially in each Epoch, thus improving the model scalability and confining the peak run-time memory requirement regardless of the total analysis period. A proposed self-turning scheme adaptively searches for the run-time-optimal Epoch setting during iterations regardless of the characteristics of the modeled network. Extensive numerical experiments confirm the promising performance of the proposed algorithmic schemes.

Advertising versus Sales Promotion: An Examination of the Japanese Food Industry, 1976–2008

Abstract The issue of increasing sales promotion at the expense of advertising has been examined with growing concern over the last two decades. This study provides an exploratory analysis of the issues of allocation of marketing communication budget in the Japanese food industry: advertising for the long-term versus sales promotion for the short-term. Based on data collected from Nikkei Need-FinancialQUEST (Nikkei Digital Media, 2011), an increase in marketing budget allocated to sales promotion relative to advertising was observed in a time series analysis study from 1976 to 2008. The use of sales promotion budget has a two-fold effect on financial performance: the sales promotion budget is positively related to sales volumes and negatively related to profitability. Managerial implications of these findings and areas for future research are discussed. Research shows the weakened power of traditional advertising in a diversified media environment; the growth rate differential of sales promotion relative ...

Reexamination of the influence of ENSO on landfalling tropical cyclones in Korea

This study examines the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the frequency of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Korean Peninsula during the TC season, June through October, of the years 1951–2010. An ENSO year is defined when the seasonal mean of the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is greater/less than the typical seasonal mean by 0.5°C. The overall results of this study support that ENSO does not affect the landfalling TCs in Korea; the mean frequencies of the TC landfalls (influences) during El Nino and La Nina calculated over the entire analysis period are 1.1 (3.3) and 1.2 (3.0), respectively. The variations in the basin-wide distribution of TCs show that the influence of ENSO on TC distribution is extended over southeastern Japan with no significant signals coming from over the Korean Peninsula and the East China Sea. The change in the intensity of the landfalling TCs in the Korean Peninsula due to ENSO leads to the same conclusion as that in the frequency of the landfalling TCs. In addition, the same conclusion is obtained when the TC season duration is expanded to include the entire year and when different definitions of the ENSO years (e.g., based on the preceding or following winter NINO3.4 SST anomalies) are selected for analysis.

Browning in desert boundaries in Asia in recent decades

In this study, the changes in desert boundaries in Asia (Gobi, Karakum, Lut, Taklimakan, and Thar deserts) during the growing season (April October) in the years 1982 2008 were investigated by analyzing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, and temperature. In the desert boundary regions, the domain mean NDVI values increased by 7.2% per decade in 1982 1998 but decreased by 6.8% per decade thereafter. Accordingly, the bare soil areas (or nonvegetated areas) of the inside of the desert boundaries contracted by 9.8% per decade in the 1990s and expanded by 8.7% per decade in the 2000s. It is noted that the five deserts experience nearly simultaneous NDVI changes although they cover a very diverse area of Asia. In contrast, changes in temperature and precipitation in the deserts show rather diverse results. In desert boundaries located along 40 N (Gobi, Taklimakan, and Karakum), the decadal changes in vegetation greenness were mainly related to regional climate during the entire analysis period. Precipitation increased in the 1990s, providing favorable conditions for vegetation growth (i.e., greening), but precipitation reduced (19 mm per decade) and warming intensified (0.7 C per decade) in the 2000s, causing less moisture to be available for vegetation growth (i.e., browning). In desert boundaries below 40 N (Lut and Thar), although an increase in precipitation (8 mm per decade) led to greening in the 1990s, local changes in precipitation and temperature did not necessarily cause browning in the 2000s. Observed multidecadal changes in vegetation greenness in the present study suggest that under significant global and/or regional warming, changes in moisture availability for vegetation growth in desert boundaries are an important factor when understanding decadal changes in areas vulnerable to desertification over Asia.