Variations in global tropical cyclone activity and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation since the midtwentieth century

Abstract

AbstractThe Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) has been documented in previous studies to significantly impact tropical cyclone activity in all ocean basins. Most of these studies have utilized the Wheeler‐Hendon index. This index is only available since 1974, the period over which remotely sensed outgoing longwave radiation data has been available. Our study utilizes a long reconstructed MJO index, based on surface pressures, which extends back to 1905. We document consistent modulation of tropical cyclone activity by the MJO in all basins over this time period. These modulations are shown to be remarkably stable over the entire analysis period. We also examine the combined impacts of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the MJO on tropical cyclone activity in each basin over multidecadal time scales.