Dynamics Of Energy Transitions Research Articles

Energy transition dynamics: Does participatory modelling contribute to alignment among differing future world views?

A large international classification, assurance, and advisory services company provides for an energy microcosm where two opposing energy camps project initiated were assumed to be present. This research applies a case study design to analyse the contribution of participatory modelling to align differing views of energy futures. The modelling process as an intervention in a pretest and posttest setting is outlined. The hypothesis that the organization contained differing world views among respectively renewable and Oil & Gas professionals was however only marginally supported. Similarly, a survey showed no effect of the modelling intervention. We discuss the role of modelling at societal and organizational levels and indicate that even if the modelling effort includes dozens of participants and frequent workshops, if the model effort is minor and marginal to the transformational issue, one cannot expect participatory modelling to contribute strongly to alignment to a new direction. We also argue that there might be limits to positive findings of impacts of participatory modelling efforts if the issues are of high complexity. Finally, we find that the potential self‐confirming bias of participatory modelling accounts argues for expanding measuring effects to encompass also those organizational members outside the core participants teams.

The Materiality of Energy

This article draws on case studies from the energy transitions to coal, oil, and electricity in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in America to highlight the importance of attending to the material dimensions of energy systems. The essay argues that a focus on materiality illuminates both the political stakes of energy infrastructure and helps explain the dynamics of energy transitions.

Towards agent-based integrated assessment models: examples, challenges, and future developments

Understanding the complex, dynamic, and non-linear relationships between human activities, the environment and the evolution of the climate is pivotal for policy design and requires appropriate tools. Despite the existence of different attempts to link the economy (or parts of it) to the evolution of the climate, results have often been disappointing and criticized. In this paper, we discuss the use of agent-based modeling for climate policy integrated assessment. First, we identify the main limitations of current mainstream models and stress how framing the problem from a complex system perspective might help, in particular when extreme climate conditions are at stake and general equilibrium effects are questionable. Second, we present two agent-based models that serve as prototypes for the analysis of coupled climate, energy, and macroeconomic dynamics. We argue that such models constitute examples of a promising approach for the integrated assessment of climate change and economic dynamics. They allow a bottom-up representation of climate damages and their cross-sectoral percolation, naturally embed distributional issues, and traditionally account for the role of finance in sustaining economic development and shaping the dynamics of energy transitions. All these issues are at the fore-front of the research in integrated assessment. Finally, we provide a careful discussion of testable policy exercises, modeling limitations, and open challenges for this stream of research. Notwithstanding great potential, there is a long way-to-go for agent-based models to catch-up with the richness of many existing integrated assessment models and overcome their major problems. This should encourage research in the area.

Constant elasticity of substitution functions for energy modeling in general equilibrium integrated assessment models: a critical review and recommendations

Applying constant elasticity of substitution (CES) functions in general equilibrium integrated assessment models (GE-IAMs) for the substitution of technical factor inputs (e.g., replacing fossil fuels) fails to match historically observed patterns in energy transition dynamics. This method of substitution is also very sensitive to the structure of CES implementation (nesting) and parameter choice. The resulting methodology-related artifacts are (i) the extension of the status quo technology shares for future energy supply relying on fossil fuels with carbon capture, biomass, and nuclear; (ii) monotonically increasing marginal abatement costs of carbon; and (iii) substitution of energy with non-physical inputs (e.g., knowledge and capital) without conclusive evidence that this is possible to the extent modeled. We demonstrate these issues using simple examples and analyze how they are relevant in the case of four major CES-based GE-IAMs. To address this, we propose alternative formulations either by opting for carefully applied perfect substitution for alternative energy options or by introducing dynamically variable elasticity of substitution as a potential intermediate solution. Nevertheless, complementing the economic analysis with physical modeling accounting for storage and resource availability at a high resolution spatially and temporally would be preferable.

Apples, oranges, and consistent comparisons of the temporal dynamics of energy transitions

Benjamin Sovacool (2016) has provided interesting food for thought in asking “how long will it take?” for the unfolding of energy transitions. Historical evidence of “grand” or global energy system transitions taking decades to centuries to unfold contrasted with highly selective recent and rapid examples of mostly incremental technological change make for an engaging argument. But the observed contrasts are due to the apples-and-oranges comparison between transitions that are measured differently, defined differently, characterized by different processes, and explained differently.

The pace of governed energy transitions: Agency, international dynamics and the global Paris agreement accelerating decarbonisation processes?

The recent debate on the temporal dynamics of energy transitions is crucial since one of the main reasons for embarking on transitions away from fossil fuels is tackling climate change. Long-drawn out transitions, taking decades or even centuries as we have seen historically, are unlikely to help achieve climate change mitigation targets. Therefore, the pace of energy transitions and whether they can be sped up is a key academic and policy question. Our argument is that while history is important in order to understand the dynamics of transitions, the pace of historic transitions is only partly a good guide to the future. We agree with Sovacool’s [1] argument that quicker transitions have happened in the past and may therefore also be possible in the future globally. The key reason for our optimism is that historic energy transitions have not been consciously governed, whereas today a wide variety of actors is engaged in active attempts to govern the transition towards low carbon energy systems. In addition, international innovation dynamics can work in favour of speeding up the global low-carbon transition. Finally, the 2015 Paris agreement demonstrates a global commitment to move towards a low carbon economy for the first time, thereby signalling the required political will to foster quick transitions and to overcome resistance, such as from incumbents with sunk infrastructure investments.

How long will it take? Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions

Transitioning away from our current global energy system is of paramount importance. The speed at which a transition can take place—its timing, or temporal dynamics—is a critical element of consideration. This study therefore investigates the issue of time in global and national energy transitions by asking: What does the mainstream academic literature suggest about the time scale of energy transitions? Additionally, what does some of the more recent empirical data related to transitions say, or challenge, about conventional views? In answering these questions, the article presents a “mainstream” view of energy transitions as long, protracted affairs, often taking decades to centuries to occur. However, the article then offers some empirical evidence that the predominant view of timing may not always be supported by the evidence. With this in mind, the final part of the article argues for more transparent conceptions and definitions of energy transitions, and it asks for analysis that recognizes the causal complexity underlying them.

The politics and dynamics of energy transitions: lessons from Colorado's (USA) “New Energy Economy”

This article examines the political dynamics of energy transitions in a case study of the State of Colorado's (USA) efforts to create a “New Energy Economy” through a series of legislative and administrative actions between January 2007 and January 2011. Drawing on an emerging literature on the politics of social-technical transitions, we argue that transitions involve contestation between and within coalitions of incumbents and challengers, which result in policies that benefit particular actors and a reconfiguration of the core values around which transition policies are articulated. We explore these dynamics through an analysis of the process that led to the adoption of Colorado's 30% Renewable Energy Standard in 2010, which is often held up as one of the crowning achievements of the New Energy Economy initiative, in order to illustrate how these political debates shape the nature and trajectory of the transition process.

Does urbanization affect energy intensities across provinces in China?Long-run elasticities estimation using dynamic panels with heterogeneous slopes

Although there has been extensive debate in the literature that addresses the impact of urbanization on total energy use, the relative magnitude of each impact channel has not been empirically examined and urbanization's effects on energy transition dynamics in China remains unknown. Using panel datasets at the provincial level from 1986 to 2011, this paper employs dynamic models to investigate both the long-run and short-run elasticities of urbanization on energy intensities and the most significant impact channel is identified. Coal intensity and electricity intensity are also modeled to reveal energy transition dynamics driven by urbanization. A set of newly developed regression techniques, namely well-performed common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) and augmented mean group (AMG) estimators, are used to treat residual cross-sectional dependence, nonstationary residuals, and unlikely-to-hold homogeneous slope assumptions. The results obtained verify that the net effects of urbanization on overall energy intensity and electricity intensity are statistically positive, with long-run elasticities of 0.14% to 0.37% and 0.23% to 0.29%, respectively, whereas China's urbanization does not significantly increase coal intensity. The fact that short-run elasticities account for a majority of corresponding long-run values indicates that the short-run effect, that is, indirect energy use induced by urban infrastructures is the most significant impact channel of urbanization on energy use in China. An energy transition from high-pollution coal to clean electricity is also present in China, although the fundamental transition to renewable energy is still in its infancy. From a regional perspective, urbanization exerts asymmetric impacts on provincial energy use so that energy policies associated with urbanization should be province-specific. The findings also illustrate that for a panel dataset on regional dimension within large and fast-growing economies such as China, error cross-sectional dependence and residual nonstationarity must be tested and properly treated to avoid size distortion and biased estimators.

Dynamics of energy transitions under changing socioeconomic, technological and climate conditions in Northwest Germany

This paper analyzes regional interdependencies and trajectories of the energy and agriculture sectors in Germany's Northwest Metropolitan Region in order to assess the performance of regional low-cost and low-carbon strategies to alter energy sector profiles in the light of changing socioeconomic, technological and climate conditions. Our assessment is based on a dynamic, interactive simulation model for the years 2010 to 2050, which was developed and played out in close collaboration with diverse stakeholder groups in the region. Results from the model and modeling exercises demonstrate the need to increase energy efficiency because the reduction in demand it generates extends the policy space for decreasing emissions and reduces vulnerability to climate change. The results also show the feasibility of expanding renewable energy without heavy reliance on biomass, which currently is an important and contested source of energy in the region.

Envisioning the Social and Political Dynamics of Energy Transitions: Sustainable Energy for the Mediterranean Region

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image sizeKeywords: Solar energyDesertecNorth Africaenergy securityenergy justicedemocratic participation Acknowledgement The author thanks Ed Hackett and Clark Miller for their help in formulating this essay.