Abstract
Transitioning away from our current global energy system is of paramount importance. The speed at which a transition can take place—its timing, or temporal dynamics—is a critical element of consideration. This study therefore investigates the issue of time in global and national energy transitions by asking: What does the mainstream academic literature suggest about the time scale of energy transitions? Additionally, what does some of the more recent empirical data related to transitions say, or challenge, about conventional views? In answering these questions, the article presents a “mainstream” view of energy transitions as long, protracted affairs, often taking decades to centuries to occur. However, the article then offers some empirical evidence that the predominant view of timing may not always be supported by the evidence. With this in mind, the final part of the article argues for more transparent conceptions and definitions of energy transitions, and it asks for analysis that recognizes the causal complexity underlying them.
Highlights
Transitioning away from our current global energy system is of paramount importance [1]
Other elements of transitions such as their scale, magnitude, direction, drivers, actors, and mechanisms are touched upon when exploring this theme, the article’s central purpose is to ask: What does the mainstream academic literature suggest about the time scale of energy transitions? In addition, what does some of the more recent empirical data related to transitions say, or challenge, about the mainstream view?
Smil even puts a definitive threshold to his definition, arguing that an energy transition refers to the time that elapses between the introduction of a new fuel or prime mover” and its rise to 25% of national or global market share [26]
Summary
Transitioning away from our current global energy system is of paramount importance [1]. At the state or national scale, almost complete transitions to oil and electricity in Kuwait, natural gas in the Netherlands, and nuclear electricity in France took only a decade, roughly, to occur. This part of the article presents ten case studies of energy transitions that, in aggregate, affected almost one billion people and needed only 1–16 years to unfold. This evidence suggests that some energy transitions can occur much more quickly than commonly believed
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