Dynamics Of Energy Transitions Research Articles

Can China avoid the energy trilemma in achieving carbon peak?: A dynamic scenario forecasting study based on energy transition

Harmonizing the cleanliness and economics of energy is an effective means of integrating economic growth with carbon peaking goals, and realizing sustainable development in China. However, due to the existence of the energy trilemma, a worthwhile research question is how to fulfill the carbon peaking commitment while guaranteeing China's stable national development. Based on this, this paper not only discusses the nonlinear relationship between clean energy consumption transition and economic growth through threshold regression, but also simulates several scenarios of energy transition dynamics with different growth rates by using Oracle Crystal Ball software to forecast the future trend of China's carbon emissions up to 2030, aiming to find a transition scenario that can make the peak of carbon emissions appear without significant economic burden, so as to put forward countermeasures and suggestions to avoid falling into the energy trilemma in the process of fulfilling the commitment of carbon peaking. This paper finds that: firstly, there is an inverted U-shaped non-linear relationship between clean energy consumption transition and economic growth, with the inflection point of the inverted U-shape being 0.595; and secondly, only when energy transition exceeds 0.535 in 2030, the peak of carbon emissions (about 12,922.28 Mt) will occur. In summary, this paper argues that China should steadily advance energy transition, avoiding either too fast or too slow a pace (bring clean energy consumption transition to within the 0.535–0.595 range by 2030), in order to secure economic growth while honoring its commitment to peak carbon. Therefore, China should prudently design a coal exit strategy to avoid falling into the energy trilemma when promoting energy transition. Moreover, if China wants to further fulfill its commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060, it needs to continue to deepen the construction of green financial markets in order to better balance the relationship between energy cleanliness and economy.

A comprehensive city-level final energy consumption dataset including renewable energy for China, 2005–2021

The role of China is increasingly pivotal in climate change mitigation, and the formulation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies requires city-level information. The effectiveness of national policy implementation is contingent upon the support and involvement of local governments. Accurate data on final energy consumption is vital to formulate and implement city-level energy transitions and energy conservation and emission reduction policies. However, there is a dearth of data sources pertaining to China’s city-level final energy consumption. To address these gaps, we developed computational modeling techniques along with top-down and downscaling methods to estimate China’s city-level final energy consumption. In this way, we compiled a final energy consumption inventory for 331 Chinese cities from 2005 to 2021, covering seven economic sectors, 30 fossil fuels, and four clean power sources. Moreover, we discussed the validity of the estimation results from multiple perspectives to enhance estimation accuracy. This dataset can be utilized for analysis in various cutting-edge research fields such as energy transition dynamics, transition risk management strategies, and policy formulation processes.

Energy transition dynamics amid policy uncertainty, environmental regulations, and Geopolitics: Evidence from China

The time-varying dynamics of the transition to renewable energy reflect the effectiveness and efficiency of energy policy. This paper investigates renewable energy transition behavior in China using Markov regime-switching models. Two distinct phases, expansion and contraction, are identified based on the growth rates of renewable energy consumption share. We find that since China started its new-energy national strategy in 2005, there has been an extended period in which it has been in the expansion state, although it occasionally reverts to a contraction state. Intriguingly, we uncover that the timing of transition state changes can be explained by the changes in policy-related, market-based instruments and risk-related indexes. These findings present implications for policymakers in developing more precise and effective policies, that drives investment choices to align with the goal of a sustainable energy system.

Towards Just Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Transition Dynamics and Sectorial Employment in Ghana

Energy transition and the creation of sustainable jobs are major concerns towards achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7 and 13, particularly in emerging petroleum-producing economies such as Ghana. Our study examines Ghana’s sectorial employment vulnerability to the dynamics of energy transition. Employing a dynamic ARDL simulation model, we use quarterly data from 2011 to 2021 from Ghana’s Energy Commission, the Bank of Ghana, and the Public Interest and Accounting Committee. We find that transition scenarios increase industrial sector employment. Also, industrial sector employment changes more favorably under the 5% scenario than under the 1% scenario. Agriculture industry employment is positively impacted by the 1% energy transition scenarios but negatively impacted by the 5% scenarios. Up to the sixth year, both transition scenarios increase employment in the services sector; however, employment opportunities are more affected by the 1% scenario than by the 5% scenario. Therefore, developing a policy architecture that aids Ghana’s transition to renewable energy is essential.

Resource nationalism and energy transitions in lower-income countries: the case of Tanzania

ABSTRACT As the world approaches the 2030 year marker for the implementation of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as defined by the United Nations, the global urgency for sustainable and energy sources grows. Lower-income countries, however, confront a choice between cleaner energy and ensuring cheap and reliable energy. This raises the question of how some countries can find a balance between meeting their global climate change commitments and meeting urgent energy generation needs. This article uses resource nationalism as a lens to examine Tanzania’s energy transition dynamics. It seeks to understand why renewable sources such as wind and solar have been promoted in government policy but have not attracted much developmental support and investment. The authors argue that resource nationalism provides context within which to understand why the state has been quick to promote energy projects (notably geothermal, coal, natural gas and hydroelectric) where it has direct investment interests, as opposed to large wind and solar projects where private – often foreign – investors are dominant.

A matter of energy injustice? A comparative analysis of biogas development in Brazil and Italy

Energy transitions have significant implications for justice, as certain regions may experience losses or improvements as a result of decarbonization efforts. The biogas development in Brazil and Italy has been characterized by incidents of injustice in different dimensions and contexts. This article addresses this issue by applying a multi-scalar and multi-horizon structure model developed by Kanger and Sovacool (Kanger and Sovacool, 2022 [1]) to connect these incidents to energy transition dynamics, regarding biogas development, in both countries. Organized into dimensions and clusters, and at different spatial and temporal scales, the obtained data – derived by scientific literature review and analysis of news published by the media – were analyzed from an inventory that gathered 230 incidents of injustice for Brazil and 114 for Italy. Among the results obtained, some differences stand out. In Italy, biogas policies have mainly benefited large plants in the northern region of the country, leading to regional disparities, while in Brazil, the dependence on rainfall has prevented effective incentives for renewable sources, in addition to leading to increased energy costs and social problems. The research also reveals that the regional scale is more relevant for Italy, reflecting the country's political structure. Unlike the Italian reality, in Brazil, the regional spatial scale is neglected, with a greater presence of national scope initiatives. The movement to systematize the contextual factors of biogas injustices in Brazil and Italy can provide insights for policymakers and researchers interested in the dynamics of energy transition and the challenges associated with promoting renewable energies while addressing social and environmental issues.

The politics of intermediation in transitions: Conflict and contestation over energy efficiency policy

This study investigates transition intermediation in energy efficiency regulation for buildings and light vehicles in Australia by using an analytical framework that draws on transition literature and the multiple streams approach (MSA) from policy studies. By focusing on Australian cases, this study examines required functions of transition intermediaries in a highly politicised context in which sustainability transitions are contested to improve an understanding of transition-oriented policy processes, including policy failures. The findings highlight the role of transition intermediaries that brought knowledge capacity into policy processes, advocated for new policy visions, and built consensus on policy proposals. The analysis suggests that the functional influence of transition intermediaries is particularly important when there is conflict among organised interests. In doing so, this study offers new insight into how transition intermediation is shaping the dynamics of energy transitions in politicised contexts.

The Changing Dynamics of a Universe in Transition

It is shown in this paper that the distorted space model of matter can describe a universe transitioning between conception and an open-ended finality. We use the verbiage “distorted” to communicate the concept of “energetic-manifold-warping” and to distinguish “spatial-warping” from “classical matter-warping”, although the concept of “matter” is in fact, in the present “distorted-geometry” context, the “geometric distortion energy” of the spatial manifold itself without a classical “matter stress-energy source”. An energy conserving alternative to black-body radiation-emission structural-modeling is manifest as an energetically unstable Universe (an originally stable but subsequently collapsing state, followed by an explosive expansion, thereby exhibiting an energy-creation process of one day!). The energy transition dynamics are described for a spherical, gravitational, and electromagnetic, geometrically-based mimic of matter existing at quantitative measures of a size challenging observation, that is, at a calculated Universe (gravitational body) [Formula: see text][Formula: see text]m and [Formula: see text][Formula: see text]J. The Universe (electromagnetic body) radius is calculated [Formula: see text][Formula: see text]m. We have modeled the structure with a composite, two-component, geometric-coupling_constant and initial structural conditions representing Friedmann’s critical density, [Formula: see text]_critical energy-density (8.898(–10)[Formula: see text][Formula: see text]J/m3) for the gravitational energy-density and [Formula: see text]_electron (8.7(10)[Formula: see text][Formula: see text]J/m3)[Formula: see text][Formula: see text][Formula: see text]the [Formula: see text]_critical energy-density for the geometric-electromagnetic extremum; the geometric extrema are curvature and energy-density extrema. A collapsing initial-phase-1 state, posited as a Friedmann-defined, distorted-geometry (DG) configuration with two equal-energy species or energy-density states, transitions electromagnetically, via an intermediate “mediator or force carrier” state (a W-boson structure in beta-decay), to a final 3-component state (ala a mimic of the beta decay transition process).

Directing energy transition toward decarbonization: The China story

Addressing major challenges such as climate change and carbon neutrality requires a transition to new low-carbon energy carriers and improvements in energy efficiency. The majority of previous studies adopted a one-directional approach to examine the factors affecting energy transitions and did not quantitatively estimate the driving effects of different factors on low-carbon energy transition from the two perspectives of energy mix and energy efficiency. This study aimed to explore which mechanisms can effectively drive the low-carbon energy transition under the current setting and what cross-cutting insights might be gained from energy transition dynamics observed in a large and emerging economy such as China. After employing Baron and Kenny's three-step procedure to identify the mediating effects, we found that policy factors constitute the main forces behind the transition of the energy structure toward natural gas, and that technical knowledge stock mediates the impact of both energy-saving goals and new energy subsidy policies on energy intensity. Furthermore, under the pressure of energy-saving target assessment, local governments have adopted a “campaign-style” energy-saving approach. Moreover, state-owned capital may assume greater importance in the advancement of energy transition relative to other ownership types. Finally, this study put forward several policy implications, including the need to promote long-term mechanisms, low-carbon technologies, and renewable energy.

Contested transition? Exploring the politics and process of regional energy planning in Indonesia

Transitioning to low carbon energy involves policies, institutions, and actors across different scales of governance. Indonesia's aspiration for a transition to low carbon energy is occurring in the dynamics of the re-scaling of environmental governance through decentralization processes. This article examines the interplays of actors at the national and provincial levels in negotiating energy futures as the energy planning processes unfold on the ground and identifies context specific factors that shape the outcomes. Further, it investigates how the regulatory framework and institutional arrangements for energy transition planning could not only generate obstacles for renewable energy transition but also open opportunities for actions. It is based on interviews with stakeholders at national and subnational levels, combined with the analysis of policy documents, studies, and relevant reports. The findings reveal emerging spaces for local actions amid constraining regulatory and institutional fields through the process of regional energy plan development. However, the ability of sub-national actors to seize these spaces is influenced by several factors, most notably political leadership, civil society engagement, political economic structure and power relations. These in-depth insights from Indonesia have wider implications for understanding the multi-scalar dynamics of energy transitions and provide useful policy recommendations for engaging subnational actors in the transition process.

Niches, narratives, and national policy: How India developed off-grid solar for rural electrification

Decentralized renewables are critical for rural electrification in many countries in the Global South. As a case study of the development of decentralized renewables, we trace the evolution of India's off-grid solar sector from 1980 through 2020. We apply the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) to highlight interactions across three levels of actors, with additional attention to how their actions were shaped by evolving policy narratives. We find that the national government initiated the development of off-grid solar in the early 1980s due to concerns about energy security and rural poverty. The sector was then supported by international agencies focused on sustainable development, and more recently non-state players and private enterprise emerged as the innovators. This case study makes two more general contributions to the MLP literature. Empirically, it shows how regime actors can deliberately create niches. Theoretically, it shows how narrative analysis can be integrated into the MLP to shed light on the dynamics of energy transitions.

Translating observed household energy behavior to agent-based technology choices in an integrated modeling framework

SummaryDecarbonizing the building sector depends on choices made at the household level, which are heterogeneous. Agent-based models are tools used to describe heterogeneous choices but require data-intensive calibration. This study analyzes a novel, cross-country European household-level survey, including sociodemographic characteristics, energy-saving habits, energy-saving investments, and metered household electricity consumption, to enhance the empirical grounding of an agent-based residential energy choice model. Applying cluster analysis to the data shows that energy consumption is not straightforwardly explained by sociodemographic classes, preferences, or attitudes, but some patterns emerge. Income consistently has the largest effect on demand, dwelling efficiency, and energy-saving investments, and the potential to improve a dwellings' energy use affects the efficiency investments made. Including the various sources of heterogeneity found to characterize the model agents affects the timing and speed of the transition. The results reinforce the need for grounding agent-based models in empirical data, to better understand energy transition dynamics.

Ecological macroeconomic assessment of meeting a carbon budget without negative emissions

Non-technical summary This paper expands the range of scenarios usually explored in integrated assessment models by exploring unconventional economic scenarios (steady-state and degrowth) and assuming no use of negative emissions. It is shown, using a mathematical model of climate and economy, that keeping cumulative emissions within the 1.5 degree carbon budget is possible under all growth assumptions, assuming a rapid electrification of end use and an immediate upscaling of renewable energy investments. Under business-as-usual investment assumptions no economic trajectory corresponds with emissions reductions consistent with the 1.5 degree carbon budget. Technical summary This paper presents a stock-flow consistent input–output integrated assessment model designed to explore the dual dynamics of transitioning to renewable energy while electrifying end use subject a carbon budget constraint. Unlike the majority of conventional integrated assessment model analyses, this paper does not assume the deployment of carbon dioxide removal and examines the role that alternative economic pathways (steady-states and degrowth) may play in achieving 1.5°C consistent emissions pathways. The model is internally calibrated based on a life-cycle energy return on investment scheme and the energy transition dynamics are captured via a dynamic input–output formulation. Renewable energy investment as a fraction of gross domestic product for successful emissions pathways reaches 5%. In terms of new capital requirements and investments, degrowth trajectories impose lower transition requirements than steady-state and growth trajectories. Social media summary We explore the role that steady-state and degrowth economic trajectories may play in emissions reductions consistent with a 1.5 degree world..

The governance of energy transition: lessons from the Nigerian electricity sector

BackgroundThe rising need for transition towards more sustainable energy sources requires a rethink in the governance of energy systems. Arguably, policy makers have very important roles in governing transitions in any given society through established institutional frameworks. It has also been argued that energy infrastructure choices are determined by institutional dynamics and structures. However, what are the underlying influences required to change energy systems and what lessons can we draw from them for the governance of energy transition? This study focuses on understanding the dynamics of energy transition governance in the Nigerian electricity sector with the aim of drawing lessons that impact on energy transition and energy systems change.MethodsUsing explorative research tools, this study investigates the dynamics of energy transition governance in the Nigerian electricity sector with the aim of drawing lessons that impact on energy transition and energy systems change. Data from primary and secondary sources in documentary archives as well as other published sources that are linked with the provision of the Nigerian historical energy infrastructure were used for the analysis in order to draw lessons on energy transition dynamics in Nigeria.ResultsThe study revealed that there were three important factors that had a direct impact on energy transition and energy systems change in Nigeria’s electricity sector. These are: (1) Changing perceptions and goals (during the period leading up to Nigeria’s independence, 1890–1960s); (2) Direct government interventions in energy infrastructure provisions (1940s–1970s); and (3) Major changes in market rules (from 2005 and beyond).ConclusionsThe study concludes by highlighting that: (1) there is a need for government institutions to tackle energy access issues that address the needs of the poor; (2) it is imperative to explore technological options that are more sustainable; and (3) there is a need to address energy consumption patterns that are more energy intensive. Indeed, available energy resources, technological changes in electricity supply systems, and the ‘geographies of energy’ are major factors that influence energy production and consumption dynamics. All of them needs should be considered, as energy decisions are primarily political choices.

Efficiency and dependence in the European electricity transition

Although the European Union sets common objectives, each member country is in charge of its own energy policy. An exhaustive analysis of the power generation mixes of the EU member countries from 1990 to 2017 has revealed strong disparities in the evolution of their structure. Using key performance indicators, the paper analyzes the current situation in terms of carbon intensity, dependence, vulnerability and energy transition dynamics. The paper focuses on the transition dynamics for 12 emblematic EU countries. It is worthwhile to note that most of these countries have managed to reduce the carbon intensity of their electricity. The analysis revealed, for some countries, an empirical relationship between imports and the carbon intensity of power generation. The increase of the share of renewable energies induces a dependence of a country on its neighbors as long as a massive storage of electricity is not available. The increased electricity trade with neighboring countries induce costs and benefits. Only countries that have invested heavily in hydro and nuclear power benefit from both a low-carbon electrical production mix and a low dependence on imports. Finally, the paper suggests some avenues for public policies in the energy field.

Governing energy transitions in Australia: Low carbon innovation and the role for intermediary actors

High solar Photovoltaic (PV) penetration and expensive electricity rates have positioned Australia to become the number one market for battery storage in the world. To date however, there has been little research that explores the governance of such energy transitions in the Australian context. This paper explores the role of intermediary actors through a case study of battery storage in Canberra, one of the first such projects in Australia which is rolling out energy storage to more than 5000 homes and businesses. Drawing on empirical research, the paper focuses on industry proponents and draws out a tripartite framing of industry-industry, industry-government, and industry-consumer relationships to explore the process of intermediation and consider how this extends the capacity of these actors beyond their traditional roles. The findings highlight both visible and invisible roles for intermediary actors, which have important implications for governance in terms of responsibility and transparency. Overall, the paper provides new insights into how intermediation is shaping the dynamics of energy transitions and facilitating technological innovation in Australia.

Modelling of Institutional Capacity within Study of Energy Transition Dynamics

Abstract Institutional capacity is enabling environment for interactions between individuals and organizations. Understanding the changes required regarding the institutional capacity is needed to remove barriers and stimulate transition to sustainable energy systems. The aim of this study was to identify those barriers to understand what type of changes of the institutional capacity is required. Review of publications was done with focus on the three critical domains for clean energy transition – social acceptance, climate and energy policy and critical materials. In result, the most important aspects of the institutional capacity that form the barriers as well as stimulus in the three domains were identified. Causal loop diagram providing a systemic viewpoint on the important elements and interactions within the mentioned three domains is presented. Results of the study can be used for system dynamics model of energy transition.

Conceptualizing Niche–Regime Dynamics of Energy Transitions from a Political Economic Perspective: Insights from Community-Led Urban Solar in Seoul

The complex dynamics between technological niches and regime “lock-in” are critical in determining the pace and outcomes of energy transitions. The socio-technical transitions literature has received growing scholarly attention, but it lacks consideration of the broader political and economic contexts. This paper aims to advance understanding of socio-technical transitions by conceptualizing niche–regime dynamics from a political economic perspective, with reference to a case study of solar in Seoul. Based on in-depth face-to-face interviews with 18 key stakeholders, we have three findings. Firstly, the politico-economic contexts have created an embedded environment in which five factors have a clear influence on niche–regime dynamics. Secondly, the politico-economic contexts created conducive conditions for niche developments on the one hand, but, on the other hand, have created inhibitive conditions that have cancelled out the positive forces and reinforced “lock-in”. Thirdly, the processes occur at multi-scalar levels: Community solar niches in Seoul are conditioned by the broader politico-economic contexts at city and national levels. We conclude that sufficient policy attention should be given to the political economy of a national energy system in order to create conducive conditions for community-led niches to realize the full potential that they could offer in energy transitions.

The dynamics of political power: The socio-technical transition of California’s electricity system to renewable energy

Global electricity generation depends on fossil fuels as a primary fuel and the negative environmental consequences of fossil fuel combustion are well known. This makes transitioning electricity generation to renewable energy sources a critical component of climate change mitigation. Energy transitions involve complex socio-technical systems, extending beyond economics or policy to include societal relationships with energy such as processes of manifesting societal will as policy decisions. Yet current energy-economy-climate-models are economy-policy centric and fail to include such socio-technical feedbacks in energy transition dynamics, especially the influence of policy formation on the rate of energy transitions. This missing feedback is incorporated into a system dynamics model of California’s electricity generation. The model is grounded in the advocacy coalition framework and examines competition between pro-fossil and pro-renewable interest’s influence on policy formation dynamics. Results show policy volatility, where competition drives inconsistent policy enactment and lifespan. This impacts transition dynamics as policies influence profitability analyses, and subsequent decisions in new generation capacity investments. Political lock-in was hypothesized to be the most critical influence on transition dynamics, as well-funded pro-fossil policy manipulation creates barriers to renewable energy that green advocacy coalitions struggle to overcome. However, results show this is less influential than anticipated and carbon lock-in, defined as the long lifespan of fossil fuel technologies, is also a critical driver of transition rates. Early retirement of fossil fuel electricity generation technologies allows current investment dynamics to favor higher capacities of renewables. This is a novel finding, and an open area for future research.

The impact of heterogeneous market players with bounded-rationality on the electricity sector low-carbon transition

The energy sector transition requires large financial investments in low-carbon generation technologies, to be delivered by a variety of actors with heterogeneous characteristics. Real-world actors have bounded-rationality, reflected by their limited foresight and heterogeneous expectations, and as past trends influence their investments. Agent-based models are highly suitable modelling frameworks to study such realistic and complex energy transition dynamics. This paper introduces BRAIN-Energy, a novel agent-based model which explicitly allows to explore the impacts of actors' heterogeneous characteristics, and of their interactions, on the transition pathways of the UK, German and Italian electricity sectors. Results show that actors' heterogeneous characteristics pose barriers to effective decarbonisation efforts, affect the speed of the transition, and impact the transition's security of supply and affordability dimensions. Limited foresight and path-dependency lead to investment cycles (both virtuous and vicious). The country comparison highlights how such effects are stronger in markets with more heterogeneous market players.