European Energy System Research Articles

Racjonalne sposoby działania podziemnych magazynów gazu z uwzględnieniem zużycia nośnika energii

The fuel and energy complex of Ukraine, like most developed countries of the world, is a complex system of material production incorporating a set of many subsystems that cover the extraction, conversion, distribution, storage and consumption of energy. Ukraine's gas transportation system has an extremely complex system, which consists of gas pipelines of various purposes and capacities, compressor stations, compressor shops, gas distribution stations and underground gas storage facilities. Compressor stations, allied with underground storage, ensure full pipeline use, reliability of work, modes of regulation of transit flows and maintenance of uninterrupted supply. Their co-employment is considered one of the most effective methods of increasing reserves for reliable gas supply and efficiency of gas sales in the country and abroad. The use of storage reduces the unevenness of seasonal consumption and enables timely delivery. This is justified by the fact that during the year, gas production is uneven, as is consumption. In winter, the amount of gas extracted does not provide the amount of gas consumed. Therefore, underground storage facilities are an integral part of the gas transmission system, which must function efficiently. The Ukrainian gas transportation system is part of the European energy system, despite the fact that the country itself is not yet a member of the EU. To research the issues of improving the efficiency of the system and underground storage facilities, it is necessary to analyse the parameters of their work and study the problems of reducing costs during storage and transportation. In the work on the basis of the analysis of the cyclic operation of the Dashavsky underground storage, the energy approach to an estimation of losses of gas at storage is offered. This will streamline and specify the general ideas and the level of irreversible losses of natural gas as an energy source and will increase the efficiency of operation of the underground gas storage as a whole. At the same time, taking into account the energy characteristics of natural gas when forecasting its losses during storage will significantly affect the organisation and optimisation of maintenance of storage equipment and, in particular, the compressor station.

Dissemination of PV-Battery systems in the German residential sector up to 2050: Technological diffusion from multidisciplinary perspectives

A decarbonization of the European energy system implies great changes in the residential sector. Recently, the sector does not show the necessary dynamics. Apparently decarbonizing the sector requires a new momentum. Using PV-Battery systems as key technology for the residential sector for becoming more environmentally sustainable as an example, we take a closer look at the complexity of technology diffusions in the residential sector. By employing a socio-techno-economic (SoTeEc) framework approach we consider that diffusion processes are impacted by a broad range of measurable and non-measurable factors. Our framework combines a techno-economic with a socio-economic analysis. With the techno-economic analysis we assess the drivers of technology diffusion of PV-Battery systems in private households whereas the socio-economic analysis focuses on the role of a) the household sector in the overall social-economic system and b) actor specific factors like attitudes. The link of the two approaches enables us to identify which techno-economic scenarios are feasible from socio-economic point of view and vice versa. Hence, we can identify scenarios which fulfill simultaneously requirements from techno-economic and socio-economic point of views. Such scenarios can serve as a starting point for policy recommendations.

Greenhouse Gas Abatement in EUROPE—A Scenario-Based, Bottom-Up Analysis Showing the Effect of Deep Emission Mitigation on the European Energy System

Greenhouse gas emissions need to be drastically reduced to mitigate the environmental impacts caused by climate change, and to lead to a transformation of the European energy system. A model landscape consisting of four final energy consumption sector models with high spatial (NUTS-3) and temporal (hourly) resolution and the multi-energy system model ISAaR is extended and applied to investigate the transformation pathway of the European energy sector in the deep emission mitigation scenario solidEU. The solidEU scenario describes not only the techno-economic but also the socio-political contexts, and it includes the EU27 + UK, Norway, and Switzerland. The scenario analysis shows that volatile renewable energy sources (vRES) dominate the energy system in 2050. In addition, the share of flexible sector coupling technologies increases to balance electricity generation from vRES. Seasonal differences are balanced by hydrogen storage with a seasonal storage profile. The deployment rates of vRES in solidEU show that a fast, profound energy transition is necessary to achieve European climate protection goals.

Balancing GHG mitigation and land-use conflicts: Alternative Northern European energy system scenarios

Long-term power market outlooks suggest a rapid increase in renewable energy deployment as a main solution to greenhouse gas mitigation in the Northern European energy system. However, the consequential area requirement is a non-techno-economic aspect that currently is omitted by many energy system optimization models. This study applies modeling to generate alternatives (MGA) technique to the Balmorel energy system model to address spatial conflicts related to increased renewable energy deployment. The approach searches for alternative solutions that minimize land-use conflicts while meeting the low-carbon target, by allowing a 1% to 15% increase in system costs compared to the least-cost solution. Two alternative objectives are defined to reflect various aspects of spatial impact. The results show that the least-cost solution requires 1.2%–3.6% of the land in the modeled countries in 2040 for onshore wind and solar PV installations. A 10% increase in costs can reduce the required land area by 58% by relying more on offshore wind. Nuclear energy may also be an option if both onshore and offshore areas are to be reduced, or in a less flexible system. Both offshore wind and nuclear energy technologies are associated with higher risks and pose uncertainties in terms of reaching the climate targets in time. The changes in costs and required land areas imply significantly higher annual costs ranging from 200 to 750 kEUR/km2 to avoid land use for energy infrastructure. Overall, this study confirms that the energy transition strategies prioritizing land savings from energy infrastructure are feasible, but high risks and costs of averted land are involved.

The Value of Sector Coupling for the Development of Offshore Power Grids

Offshore grids can play key roles in the transition of energy systems toward sustainability. Although they require extensive infrastructure investments, they allow for the exploitation of additional resources and may be important in providing for part of the increasing electricity demands driven by sector coupling. This paper quantifies the socioeconomic value of offshore grids and identifies their major drivers, performing energy system optimization in a model application of the northern–central European energy system and the North Sea offshore grid towards 2050. The increasing wake loss with the sizes of hub-connected wind farms is integrated in the modeling. We find that without sector coupling no offshore grid may develop, and that the higher the level of sector coupling, the higher the value of offshore grids. Therefore, it can be strongly stated that offshore grid infrastructure development should not be discussed as a separate political topic, but seen in connection to sector coupling.

The impact of electric vehicles on the future European electricity system – A scenario analysis

The future transformation of the European electricity system will be strongly influenced by both an ongoing integration of variable renewable energy sources (VREs) and an increased proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs). This combination will cause considerable uncertainty, especially since EV diffusion may greatly vary regarding both the spatio-temporal penetration pattern and the achievable flexibility level. Notably, power plant investment in the long run and dispatch in the short run will be affected. Hence, this paper assesses the impact of EV penetration on the integration of VREs and the costs of CO2 emission reduction as well as the necessary investments in controllable plant capacities under the consideration of frequency reserve and backup capacity requirements. Applying an extended European energy system model, we found that EVs with a high flexibility level may contribute tremendously to improved VRE integration, alleviating the number of necessary VRE investments to achieve emission-reduction goals. Simultaneously, overall system costs are reduced even though necessary investments in controllable plants, ensuring the abovementioned system stability needs, significantly increase. Policy makers should hence ensure sufficient incentives to both exploit the EVs’ potential and safeguard corresponding investments in controllable plants, which need to remain attractive even though full-load hours are decreasing.

Управління реновацією національної економіки у забезпеченні енергетичної децентралізації та енергобезпеки

The article is devoted to an analytical review of the situation in the industrial and energy sectors of Ukraine, taking into account the regional component and given the extent of destruction caused by the armed conflict. It is proposed and substantiated the hypothesis that the SMART-chain of administrative-budgetary-energy decentralization in the shortest possible time to protect the economy of Ukraine from the challenges of the postwar period. The national resource potential of energy efficient and energy saving technologies is systematized, applied recommendations are provided to support state and local energy development trends, namely: energy storage projects, distributed and micro-generation, Net Energy Metering projects to support small projects in the energy sector. Proposals for institutional changes to establish a Decarbonization / Green Energy Transition Agency in Ukraine, with broad communication powers and the ability to make decisions on reducing carbon emissions in all areas, are presented. The possibility and expediency of applying the concept of niarshoring in Ukrainian industry (with the potential to use Ukraine's industrial and logistics infrastructure as a mega-industrial park for the EU and the mutual benefit of such a project) and in the national energy sector (to improve the EU energy balance) . The energy balance of Europe for the last 5 years is analyzed, the negative dynamics of its development is demonstrated. To improve the situation, the forecast of energy prices for individual EU countries was calculated taking into account Ukraine's integration into the European energy system. The analysis and calculations revealed a potentially possible level of price reductions in selected EU countries up to 20-30%. Recommendations for improving the efficiency of energy management at the regional level are provided, in particular, ensuring transparency in the development of renewable energy sources, using significant national biofuel potential and increasing natural gas production, developing a business model of a gas distribution center in Western Ukraine energy market.

Potentials of Direct Air Capture and Storage in a Greenhouse Gas-Neutral European Energy System

Potentials of Direct Air Capture and Storage in a Greenhouse Gas-Neutral European Energy System

Diversity of Options to Reach Carbon-Neutrality Across the Entire European Energy System

Diversity of Options to Reach Carbon-Neutrality Across the Entire European Energy System

Impact of Coupling the Electricity and Hydrogen Sector in a Zero-Emission European Energy System in 2050

Impact of Coupling the Electricity and Hydrogen Sector in a Zero-Emission European Energy System in 2050

Green Energy Carriers and Energy Sovereignty in a Climate Neutral European Energy System

Green Energy Carriers and Energy Sovereignty in a Climate Neutral European Energy System

ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ РЕАЛИЗАЦИИ «ЗЕЛЕНОЙ СДЕЛКИ» В ЕВРОПЕ

The “Green Deal” of the European Union (EU) is a plan for decarbonizing the EU economy by 2050, structural changes in the European energy system, transforming the economy and stimulating efforts to combat climate change. But this new development paradigm will also have profound geopolitical consequences. This initiative will have a significant impact on changing the energy balance of the EU and global markets, on the countries exporting energy resources. European energy security will be exposed to new challenges and threats, which is likely to have a negative impact on the economy of a wide range of states.

Optimal integration of Power-to-X plants in a future European energy system and the resulting dynamic requirements

The technologies for future energy systems must be developed now, but they will be deployed into energy systems very different from those of today. This is a challenge for Power-to-X technologies, which rely on the fluctuating production of renewable energies. Dynamic analysis is indispensable to achieve ideal integration of Power–to–X into the energy system. Thereby dynamic requirements for Power-to-X plants become clear and can be fed back to plant operators and component manufacturers. This allows to develop key components of Power-to-X today in a way that they match future energy systems perfectly. Using linear programming, this study optimizes a large-scale energy system completely coupled with the components of a Power-to-X plant. This Power-to-X plant produces hydrogen and synthetic natural gas. The results reveal that in the considered scenario Power-to-X plants are installed in almost all regions and are used for multi-day to seasonal energy storage. Electrolysis must be operated very dynamically and has about 200 starts a year in every region, whereas methanation is much more decoupled from the fluctuations of renewables and only has about 40 starts a year in every region. This is made possible by a hydrogen storage system which, if ideally designed, can store the hydrogen production of the electrolysis for an average of 17 h. Furthermore, this study investigates other flexibility requirements for Power-to-X plants including their scheduling, full load hours, average uptimes, and average downtimes.

Competitiveness of a low specific power, low cut-out wind speed wind turbine in North and Central Europe towards 2050

This work is part of an ongoing study, creatively named the “LowWind Project” (Madsen et al., 2020), whose goal is to investigate at what price point a hypothetical 3.4 MW 100 W/m2 low wind (LW) turbine with a hub height of 127.5 m, a rotor diameter of 208 m, and a cut-out wind speed of 13 m/s becomes competitive in Northern and Central Europe’s energy system, as well as what impact the introduction of this technology has on the system. Similarly, the impact system flexibility has on LW investment is also analysed by limiting future transmission investment. Furthermore, this paper also analyses the amount of revenue this LW technology could generate compared to conventional turbines to further investigate the business case for this technology. The main finding here is that this LW technology begins to see investment at a 45% price increase over a conventional onshore wind turbine with an equal hub height (127.5 m) and a smaller rotor diameter (142 m vs 208 m). The addition of LW technology also leads to a reduction in transmission investment, and similarly, reductions in transmission capacity lead to further investment in LW technology. Lastly, it is shown that in the future Northern and Central European energy system, in wind dominated areas such as Denmark, this LW technology could generate revenues that are more than double that of conventional turbines (per MW), making the case that this technology could be a worthy endeavor.

Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6

Abstract. Solar photovoltaics (PV) plays an essential role in decarbonizing the European energy system. However, climate change affects surface solar radiation and will therefore directly influence future PV power generation. We use scenarios from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for a mitigation (SSP1-2.6) and a fossil-fuel-dependent (SSP5-8.5) pathway in order to quantify climate risk for solar PV in Europe as simulated by the Global Solar Energy Estimator (GSEE). We find that PV potential increases by around 5 % in the mitigation scenario, suggesting a positive feedback loop between climate change mitigation and PV potential. While increased clear-sky radiation and reduced cloud cover go hand in hand in SSP1-2.6, the effect of a decrease in clear-sky radiation is outweighed by a decrease in cloud cover in SSP5-8.5, resulting in an increase in all-sky radiation. Moreover, we find that the seasonal cycle of PV generation changes in most places, as generation grows more strongly in winter than in summer (SSP1-2.6) or increases in summer and declines in winter (SSP5-8.5). We further analyze climate change impacts on the spatial variability of PV power generation. Similar to the effects anticipated for wind energy, we report an increase in the spatial correlations of daily PV production with large inter-model agreement yet relatively small amplitude, implying that PV power balancing between different regions in continental Europe will become more difficult in the future. Thus, based on the most recent climate simulations, this research supports the notion that climate change will only marginally impact renewable energy potential, while changes in the spatiotemporal generation structure are to be expected and should be included in power system design.

A Brief Climatology of Dunkelflaute Events over and Surrounding the North and Baltic Sea Areas

In the coming decades, the European energy system is expected to become increasingly reliant on non-dispatchable generation such as wind and solar power. Under such a renewable energy scenario, a better characterization of the extreme weather condition ‘Dunkelflaute’, which can lead to a sustained reduction of wind and solar power, is important. In this paper, we report findings from the very first climatological study of Dunkelflaute events occurring in eleven countries surrounding the North and Baltic Sea areas. By utilizing multi-year meteorological and power production datasets, we have quantified various statistics pertaining to these events and also identified their underlying meteorological drivers. It was found that almost all periods tagged as Dunkelflaute events (with a length of more than 24 h) are in November, December, and January for these countries. On average, there are 50–100 h of such events happening in each of these three months per year. The limited wind and solar power production during Dunkelflaute events is shown to be mainly driven by large-scale high-pressure systems and extensive low-cloud coverage. Even though the possibility of simultaneous Dunkelflaute events in neighboring countries can be as high as 30–40%, such events hardly occur simultaneously in all the eleven countries. Through an interconnected EU-11 power system, the mean frequency of Dunkelflaute drops from 3–9% for the individual countries to approximately 3.5% for the combined region, highlighting the importance of aggregating production over a wide area to better manage the integration of renewable energy generation.

A 2050 perspective on the role for carbon capture and storage in the European power system and industry sector

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) might be a central technology to reach the decarbonisation goals of the European energy system. However, CCS deployment faces multiple economic, technological, and infrastructure challenges. Related literature tends to only focus on certain aspects of the CCS technology or to be limited to a particular sector perspective. In contrast, this paper presents a holistic modelling framework to analyse the long-term perspectives of CCS in Europe by extending the typical analysis from the electricity sector to the industry sector, and by including the CO2 infrastructure level with CO2 pipelines and storage. To this end, we use state-of-the-art models of the electricity sector (generation investment and electricity grid models), the industry sector, as well as the CO2 infrastructure sector. This unique modelling framework analyses the feasibility and costs of CCS deployment in the European Union towards 2050 in three scenarios with the same ambitious climate policy target (~85% CO2 emissions reduction). The main insights on the deployment of CCS in Europe hinges on two factors: i) the development of low-cost power generation technologies with carbon capture (coal and/or gas-fired), and ii) a sufficiently high CO2 price to compensate for the costs of deploying the CO2 transport infrastructure. Once CO2 transport infrastructure is available, CCS will be a preferred mitigation option for the industry sector emissions. The joint use of CO2 infrastructure by the electricity and the industry sector allows for economies of scale and economies of density. In the long term, CCS cannot achieve the 100% decarbonisation target of the energy sector because the technology can only capture 80–90% of the CO2 emissions of thermal power plants. Moreover, the advantages of CCS in terms of energy system costs compared to a system without CCS is rather small, in the range of 2%. It crucially depends on the costs of renewables and the costs of their integration in the electricity grid.

Could clean industrial progresses and the rise of electricity demand foster the penetration of nuclear fusion in the European energy mix?

The effects of the update of the EUROfusion TIMES Model (ETM) industrial sector to account for the introduction of low-carbon technologies is presented and discussed in this work. ETM is a minimum-cost energy system model aimed at investigating the conditions for the introduction of nuclear fusion in the future electricity mix. The most interesting ETM long-run scenarios (until 2100) must comply with stringent environmental targets to pursue the Below-2-Degrees objective, identified in the Paris Agreement, allowing wide commercial adoption of innovative production processes - currently under test or research - which would almost completely replace well-established fossil-based industrial techniques in the iron and steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, non-metallic minerals and pulp and paper sub-sectors. Among them, low-carbon and electrolysis-based processes could open the way to a considerable increase of electricity demand, requiring also clean resources not to undermine sectoral efforts in becoming more environmentally sustainable, and the same does the implementation of CCS technologies. The study shows that the industrial sector contributes to the energy mix decarbonization by relying on CCS technologies, when available, or new low-carbon technologies. The progressive electrification of the industrial sector turns into an increasing final electricity demand which is covered by renewables and nuclear when stringent climate policies are put in place. Despite technological constraints are likely to slow down fusion deployment in the future, a range of scenarios show that nuclear fusion could contribute to generation of carbon-free electricity in the future European energy system.

Actuating the European Energy System Transition: Indicators for Translating Energy Systems Modelling Results into Policy-Making

In this paper, we define indicators, with a focus on the electricity sector, that translate the results of energy systems modelling to quantitative entities that can facilitate assessments of the transitions required to meet stringent climate targets. Such indicators, which are often overlooked in model scenario presentations, can be applied to make the modelling results more accessible and are useful for managing the transition on the policy level, as well as for internal evaluations of modelling results. We propose a set of 13 indicators related to: 1) the resource and material usages in modelled energy system designs; 2) the rates of transition from current to future energy systems; and 3) the energy security in energy system modelling results. To illustrate its value, the proposed set of indicators is applied to energy system scenarios derived from an electricity system investment model for Northern Europe. We show that the proposed indicators are useful for facilitating discussions, raising new questions, and relating the modelling results to Sustainable Development Goals and thus facilitate better policy processes. The indicators presented here should not be seen as a complete set, but rather as examples. Therefore, this paper represents a starting point and a call to other modellers to expand and refine the list of indicators.

Incorporating uncertainties towards a sustainable European energy system: A stochastic approach for decarbonization paths focusing on the transport sector

According to the Paris Agreement, the European energy system transition is essential to achieve GHG emission reduction targets set by the EU and limit the growth of global temperatures. Investigating the role of emerging mitigation technologies and their uncertainties together with the different GHG reduction targets is crucial to realize this transition. This study analyzes the uncertainties of electric vehicles' learning paths and biomass availability for biofuels, considering policy uncertainties. Since these technologies are considered possible alternatives to conventional fuels to reduce CO2 emissions in transport, it is critical to understand their future role and the possible impact of their uncertainties during the European energy system design in case of different climate ambitions. Stochastic modeling is applied to analyze associated uncertainties as an additional approach to a traditional sensitivity analysis. Our results show that decarbonization of car transport is prioritized, and electric cars appear as no-regret options in the sector's design during the energy transition. Therefore, early deployments of EVs are essential to hedge the given uncertainties independent of the hedging period's length. Longer resolution time reduces the deployment of electric vehicles in the recourse strategies compared to having a shorter one due to a delay in the cost reductions. This decline becomes more evident with the stochastic analysis. The policy uncertainty of decarbonization targets has the highest impact on the studied uncertainties on the development of the transport sector. The transport sector can show faster adjustments considering the technology portfolio's shorter lifetime. Thanks to this adjustment, the sector depicts higher decarbonization in the hedging as well as in the recourse strategies.