Could clean industrial progresses and the rise of electricity demand foster the penetration of nuclear fusion in the European energy mix?

Abstract

The effects of the update of the EUROfusion TIMES Model (ETM) industrial sector to account for the introduction of low-carbon technologies is presented and discussed in this work. ETM is a minimum-cost energy system model aimed at investigating the conditions for the introduction of nuclear fusion in the future electricity mix. The most interesting ETM long-run scenarios (until 2100) must comply with stringent environmental targets to pursue the Below-2-Degrees objective, identified in the Paris Agreement, allowing wide commercial adoption of innovative production processes - currently under test or research - which would almost completely replace well-established fossil-based industrial techniques in the iron and steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, non-metallic minerals and pulp and paper sub-sectors. Among them, low-carbon and electrolysis-based processes could open the way to a considerable increase of electricity demand, requiring also clean resources not to undermine sectoral efforts in becoming more environmentally sustainable, and the same does the implementation of CCS technologies. The study shows that the industrial sector contributes to the energy mix decarbonization by relying on CCS technologies, when available, or new low-carbon technologies. The progressive electrification of the industrial sector turns into an increasing final electricity demand which is covered by renewables and nuclear when stringent climate policies are put in place. Despite technological constraints are likely to slow down fusion deployment in the future, a range of scenarios show that nuclear fusion could contribute to generation of carbon-free electricity in the future European energy system.