Abstract
In this paper, we define indicators, with a focus on the electricity sector, that translate the results of energy systems modelling to quantitative entities that can facilitate assessments of the transitions required to meet stringent climate targets. Such indicators, which are often overlooked in model scenario presentations, can be applied to make the modelling results more accessible and are useful for managing the transition on the policy level, as well as for internal evaluations of modelling results. We propose a set of 13 indicators related to: 1) the resource and material usages in modelled energy system designs; 2) the rates of transition from current to future energy systems; and 3) the energy security in energy system modelling results. To illustrate its value, the proposed set of indicators is applied to energy system scenarios derived from an electricity system investment model for Northern Europe. We show that the proposed indicators are useful for facilitating discussions, raising new questions, and relating the modelling results to Sustainable Development Goals and thus facilitate better policy processes. The indicators presented here should not be seen as a complete set, but rather as examples. Therefore, this paper represents a starting point and a call to other modellers to expand and refine the list of indicators.
Highlights
The need for a climate-neutral and circular European economy, consistent with sustainability targets, is a stated priority of the European Union (EU) (European Commission, 2019)
We show that collaboration between the electricity system and an electrified steel industry, passenger vehicles and household heat supply can reduce total system costs by 8% compared to the No Collaboration scenario, under the assumptions made in this work
We propose and exemplify indicators that can facilitate the interpretation of the scenario results from energy systems modelling and thereby enhance the basis for policy-making
Summary
The need for a climate-neutral and circular European economy, consistent with sustainability targets, is a stated priority of the European Union (EU) (European Commission, 2019). The material use indicator presented here has an important application in determining what the different energy technologies in scenarios obtained from energy systems modelling (in the present paper, electricity generation) will require in terms of material use [e.g., metals as investigated by Kleijn et al (2011)], in comparison to today’s material production levels. Whereas scenarios in previous work mainly differ in degree of electrification (European Commission, 2018; IEA, 2018), these scenarios differ in terms of how demands for electricity and heat from the transport, industry and heat sectors are being integrated into the electricity and district heating systems This differentiation between the two scenarios is made possible by the high temporal resolution and degree of technical detail of the H2D model. Further details on scenarios can be found elsewhere (Göransson et al, 2021)
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