Energy System Transition Research Articles

Developing Low Carbon Finance Index: Evidence From Developed and Developing Economies

Climate change mitigating requires substantial efforts towards the transition of energy systems in order to decrease CO2 emissions. Therefore, this paper develops a low carbon finance index that may help out to entice foreign direct and private investment in low-carbon energy sector. A DEA-Like composite indicator has been used to develop a low carbon finance index, where considerable differences among the variables have been observed. Results show that Nepal and Iceland have achieved a low carbon finance index score value of 1, Uruguay and Finland had comparatively lower scores (0.94 and 0.43 respectively), Iran had significantly lower score of 0.06, while Singapore and Israel have lowest scores (0.01 and 0.04 respectively). It has been concluded that the developing countries may comply with the partial efforts to develop policies and renewable sector investment.

RETRACTED: Three Responses to Democracy Problems of Energy Transitions

The article explores conflicts around energy system transition, explaining them as manifestations of challenges to democracy, namely, progressive politicization of society, increasing political dif...

Effect of Heat Demand on Integration of Urban Large-Scale Renewable Schemes—Case of Helsinki City (60 °N)

Heat demand dominates the final energy use in northern cities. This study examines how changes in heat demand may affect solutions for zero-emission energy systems, energy system flexibility with variable renewable electricity production, and the use of existing energy systems for deep decarbonization. Helsinki city (60 °N) in the year 2050 is used as a case for the analysis. The future district heating demand is estimated considering activity-driven factors such as population increase, raising the ambient temperature, and building energy efficiency improvements. The effect of the heat demand on energy system transition is investigated through two scenarios. The BIO-GAS scenario employs emission-free gas technologies, bio-boilers and heat pumps. The WIND scenario is based on large-scale wind power with power-to-heat conversion, heat pumps, and bio-boilers. The BIO-GAS scenario combined with a low heat demand profile (−12% from 2018 level) yields 16% lower yearly costs compared to a business-as-usual higher heat demand. In the WIND-scenario, improving the lower heat demand in 2050 could save the annual system 6–13% in terms of cost, depending on the scale of wind power.

Daily natural gas price forecasting by a weighted hybrid data-driven model

With the role of natural gas gaining increasing importance in the transition of the world energy system and addressing global climate change, accurate prediction of the price of natural gas becomes crucially important. This paper first introduces three widely used individual data-driven models, i.e., support vector regression (SVR) and long-term and short-term memory network (LSTM), and a modified data-driven model, i.e., the improved pattern sequence similarity search (IPSS). A new weighted hybrid data-driven model based on these three models is then proposed. To train the model, data regarding the daily natural gas spot price in the U.S. prior to June 2018 are used and the model's prediction ability is tested using data from June 2018 to May 2019. The results show that the new IPSS model can predict the daily price of natural gas accurately. In a comparison of prediction errors with other individual models, the proposed hybrid model demonstrated the highest prediction ability of all of the investigated models.

Building resilient cyber-physical power systems

Power systems are undergoing a profound transformation towards cyber- physical systems. Disruptive changes due to energy system transition and the complexity of the interconnected systems expose the power system to new, unknown, and unpredictable risks. To identify the critical points, a vulnerability assessment was conducted, involving experts from the power as well as the information and communication technologies (ICT) sectors. Weaknesses were identified, e. g., the lack of policy enforcement, which are worsened by the unreadiness of the actors involved. Due to the complex dynamics of ICT, it is infeasible to keep a complete inventory of potential stressors to define appropriate preparation and prevention mechanisms. Therefore, we suggest applying a resilience management approach to increase the resilience of the system. It aims at better riding through failures rather than building higher walls. We conclude that building resilience in cyber-physical power systems is feasible and helps in preparing for the unexpected.

Current energy policies and possible transition scenarios adopting renewable energy: A case study for Bangladesh

This study analyses energy transition pathways for the case of Bangladesh. The LUT Energy System Transition model, a high temporal - spatial resolution linear optimisation tool, is used to model an energy system transition from 2015 to 2050 for the case of Bangladesh. Four scenarios aimed at analysing different energy policies were created in order to replicate the present and alternative renewable energy based policies, with and without greenhouse gas emissions costs. The results show that emissions costs accelerate the transition towards a fully renewable energy system, however, removing these costs does not significantly affect the energy system, as renewables would still contribute 94% of the electricity generation by 2050. The Current Policy Scenario increases electricity and greenhouse gas emissions costs significantly especially, starting in 2025. The results indicate that countries like Bangladesh are prone to serious and complicated national risks that lead to several vulnerabilities like high electricity costs, increase in greenhouse gas emissions, energy insecurity and poor political trust, if present energy policies are pursued. However, focusing on indigenous renewable resources could help mitigate this vulnerability and bring about socioeconomic benefits.

Governance and decentralized energy transitions: a comparative case study of three medium-sized cities in Sweden, Canada, and the United States.

Aim: This study examines the impact of governance on decentralized energy transitions. Knowledge of how particular jurisdictions and their governance arrangements influence these transitions can help strengthen and contextualize divergent trajectories of decentralized energy transitions and—most importantly—reveal the role of geographical context in policy change. Design: This research gap is addressed in this paper by comparing the uptake of decentralized energy transitions in three cities in three different countries—Luleå (Sweden), Saskatoon (Canada), and Anchorage (United States). The jurisdictions in each city has unique governance contexts pertaining to electric utilities, regulations, public policy, and public acceptance. By comparing these transitions, this study highlights the governance considerations for decentralized energy transitions and asks how does governance impact decentralized energy transitions in cities? To answer this question, actors within various public, private, and sectoral capacities were interviewed to provide their insights on decentralized energy transitions in each jurisdiction. Conclusion: I present five governance dimensions that impact decentralized energy transitions and explain how these factors can be included to provide a more contextual understanding of patterns of decentralized energy transitions in cities. Originality: Much of the literature on decentralized energy and cities has focused on project and sectoral level analysis and hasn’t considered the holistic nature of the energy system transition. A particular gap that would help inform a broader understanding is the jurisdictional governance impacts of decentralization energy transitions. Implications of the Research: In practical terms, the results could be used to inform inter-jurisdictional comparisons of decentralization energy projects. Limitations of the Research: Given that there were three case studies, it is not possible to make generalizable claims from the results.

US energy system transitions under cumulative emissions budgets

Cumulative emissions budgets are increasingly being used by decision-makers and analysts to understand emissions reductions and associated transitions in the context of long-term goals such as limiting global mean temperature increase over the century to 1.5 or 2 °C. While previous studies have explored the implications of such budgets for the global economy, few studies have conducted regional- and national-level analyses. This paper explores budgets through 2050 consistent with the 1.5 and 2 °C long-term temperature goals in the context of the USA. We employ a state-level model of the USA embedded within a global human-Earth system model (GCAM-USA) to study the implications of such budgets for the US energy system. Our results show that achieving the stringent budgets entails accelerated deployment of energy conserving technology, almost complete decarbonization of the power sector, increased electrification of buildings and industrial end-use sectors, and decarbonization of transport employing a combination of electrification and the substitution of fossil fuels for bioenergy. We also find substantial state-level differences in the relative roles of these decarbonization strategies. Furthermore, our results highlight that increased ambition in the near term will be valuable in setting the stage for smoother transformations in the future to achieve stringent budgets.

A comparison of three transformation pathways towards a sustainable European society - An integrated analysis from an energy system perspective

An energy system transition in the European Union is required to meet the decarbonisation targets determined in the Paris Agreement. To realise this transition, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 is required. However, ambitions are being raised towards carbon neutrality. Such transition will likely imply deep changes across all sectors of the EU economies and societies. The impacts on these sectors need to be analysed with a multi-disciplinary approach, to unveil cross-sectoral risks and opportunities of the transition. Additionally, the pace and effectiveness of the transition may be affected by technical and economic drivers within the EU. In this paper, we soft-link three modelling frameworks specialised in assessing technology transitions, spatially-disaggregated health impacts of air pollutants and economic impacts and we apply them to the study of deep decarbonisation pathways for the EU. An energy system model, TIMES PanEU, is soft linked with an impact assessment model, EcoSense, and with a general equilibrium model, NEWAGE. The application looks at three clearly distinguished but likely paths: one where the decarbonisation effort is mostly undertaken by decarbonisation of the energy supply; one where consumers take on a more active role in the decarbonisation, instead; one where ambitions are raised and all sectors of the economy must act together to achieve the targets. In the specific application, it is concluded that 80% reduction is achievable with a decentralised, demand driven system as well as with a centralised one, where the decarbonisation effort mainly comes from the supply side. On the other hand, to achieve a more ambitious reduction target, a broader technology mix and also the effort from both supply and demand side will be required. The synergy between the sectors, especially for the utilisation of the domestic sources such as biomass, will be a decisive factor for the direction of the energy transition.

The role of solar PV, wind energy, and storage technologies in the transition toward a fully sustainable energy system in Chile by 2050 across power, heat, transport and desalination sectors

Renewable energies will play a significant role in a sustainable energy system in order to match the goal under the Paris Agreement. However, to achieve the goal it will be necessary to find the best country pathway, with global repercussion. This study reveals that an energy system based on 100% renewable resources in Chile could be technically feasible and even more cost-efficient than the current system. The Chilean energy system transition would imply a high level of electrification across all sectors, direct and indirectly. Simulation results using the LUT Energy System Transition model show that the primary electricity demand would rise from 31.1 TWh to 231 TWh by 2050, which represent about 78% of the total primary energy demand. Renewable electricity will mainly come from solar PV and wind energy technologies. Solar PV and wind energy installed capacities across all sectors would increase from 1.1 GW and 0.8 GW in 2015 to 43.6 GW and 24.8 GW by 2050, respectively. In consequence, the levelised cost of energy will be reduced in about 25%. Moreover, the Chilean energy system in 2050 would emit zero greenhouse gases. Additionally, Chile would become a country free of energy imports.

Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE Models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges

Limiting global warming in line with the goals in the Paris Agreement will require substantial technological and behavioural transformations. This challenge drives many of the current modelling trends. This article undertakes a review of 17 state-of-the-art recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and assesses the key methodologies and applied modules they use for representing sectoral energy and emission characteristics and dynamics. The purpose is to provide technical insight into recent advances in the modelling of current and future energy and abatement technologies and how they can be used to make baseline projections and scenarios 20-80 years ahead. Numerical illustrations are provided. In order to represent likely energy system transitions in the decades to come, modern CGE tools have learned from bottom-up studies. Three different approaches to baseline quantification can be distinguished: (a) exploiting bottom-up model characteristics to endogenize responses of technological investment and utilization, (b) relying on external information sources to feed the exogenous parameters and variables of the model, and (c) linking the model with more technology-rich, partial models to obtain bottom-up- and pathwayconsistent parameters.

Lessons from Modeling 100% Renewable Scenarios Using GENeSYS-MOD

The main aim of models has never been to provide numbers, but insights. Still, challenges prevail for modelers to use the best configuration of their models to provide helpful insights. In the case of energy system modelling, this becomes even more complicated due to increasing complexity of the energy system transition through the potential and need for sector coupling. This paper therefore showcases specific characteristics and challenges for energy system modelling of 100% renewable scenarios. The findings are based on various applications and modifications of the framework GENeSYS-MOD examining different regional characteristics for high renewable configurations in the world, China, India, South-Africa, Mexico, Europe, Germany, and Colombia. The paper elaborates on our experiences of the last years of choosing the best, yet still computable, configuration of GENeSYS-MOD with respect to spatial and time resolution as well as sufficient detailed description of the energy system transition effects. The aim of this paper is therefore twofold, to better understand and interpret existing models as well as to improve future modeling exercises.

Quantifying the social equity state of an energy system: environmental and labor market equity of the shale gas boom in Appalachia

A fundamental societal concern in energy system transitions is the distribution of benefits and costs across populations. A recent transition, the US shale gas boom, has dramatically altered the domestic energy outlook and global markets; however, the social equity implications have not been meaningfully assessed and accounted for in public and private decision making. In this study, we develop and demonstrate a systematic approach to quantify the multi-dimensional equity state of an energy system, with a focus on the shale gas boom in the Appalachian basin. We tailor variants of standard equity metrics as well as develop new empirical and analytical methods and metrics to assess spatial, temporal, income, and racial equity as it relates to air quality, climate change, and labor market impacts across the natural gas supply chain. We find moderate to high spatial inequities with respect to the distribution of production (Gini coefficient (η) = 0.93), consumption for electric power generation (η = 0.68), commercial, industrial, and residential end use (η = 0.72), job creation (η = 0.72), and air pollution-related deaths (η = 0.77), which are largely driven by geographically-fixed natural gas abundance and demand. Air quality impacts are also regressive, such that mortality risk induced by natural gas activity generally increases as income decreases; for example, mortality risk (m) (in units of premature mortality per 100 000 people) for the lowest income class (<$15 000; m = 0.22 in 2016) is higher (18%–31%) than for the highest income class (>$150 000; m = 0.27 in 2016). These risks are higher for white (m = 0.30 in 2016) than non-white (m = 0.16 in 2016) populations, which is largely a result of the demographics of rural communities within the vicinity of natural gas development. With respect to local labor market impacts within producing counties, we find marginal declines in income inequality (2.8% ± 1.0%) and poverty rates (9.9% ± 1.7%) during the boom, although household income increases for the wealthiest and decreases for the poorest. At a systems-level, there is an implied air quality-employment tradeoff of 3 (<1 to 7) job-years created per life-year lost; this tradeoff varies spatially (−1100 to 4400 life-years lost minus job-years created), wherein the job benefit outweighs the air quality costs in most producing counties whereas in all other counties the reverse is true. We also observe temporal inequities, with air quality and employment impacts following the boom-and-bust cycle, while climate impacts are largely borne by future generations. Cross-impact elasticities (ε), which measure the sensitivity between different types of impacts, reveal that employment increases are sensitive to and coupled with increases in air and climate impacts (ε = 1.1 and ε = 1.3, respectively). The metrics applied here facilitate the evaluation and design of countervailing policies and systems that explicitly account for social inequities mediated through energy infrastructure, supply, and demand. For example, in future energy system transition, such equity metrics can be used to facilitate decisions related to the siting of low-carbon infrastructure such as transmission lines and wind turbines and the phase-out of fossil fuel infrastructure, as well as to demonstrate changes in distributional tradeoffs such as the decoupling of environmental and employment effects.

How Green Transition of Energy System Impacts China's Mercury Emissions

AbstractChina has long been committing to green transition of energy system to alleviate the heavy pollution; however, a quantitative analysis for its impact on air pollution has been lacking. To fill the knowledge gap, this study makes an initial attempt to reveal how green transition of energy system influences China's energy‐related mercury emissions from both individual sector and supply chain perspectives, by using input‐output (IO)‐structural decomposition analysis and structural path analysis. Moreover, the aggregated power sector in the original IO tables are further disaggregated into seven types of power sectors to avoid the inherent huge uncertainty related to the aggregation. The results show that green transition in terms of emission factor control and energy mix adjustment has substantially benefited mercury reduction, while energy efficiency improvement has a much weaker effect. The largest consumption‐based mercury reduction brought about by energy green transition happens in sector Construction, with an amount of 49.6 t. This study also finds that the green transition generally makes the production layers less mercury intensive, and the energy‐related mercury emissions are more concentrated in the production layers. Policy suggestions for further enhancing energy green transition's mitigation effects for mercury emissions are comprehensively discussed.

Life cycle assessment integration into energy system models: An application for Power-to-Methane in the EU

As the EU energy system transitions to low carbon, the technology choices should consider a broader set of criteria. The use of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) prevents burden shift across life cycle stages or impact categories, while the use of Energy System Models (ESM) allows evaluating alternative policies, capacity evolution and covering all the sectors. This study does an ex-post LCA analysis of results from JRC-EU-TIMES and estimates the environmental impact indicators across 18 categories in scenarios that achieve 80–95% CO2 emission reduction by 2050. Results indicate that indirect CO2 emissions can be as large as direct ones for an 80% CO2 reduction target and up to three times as large for 95% CO2 reduction. Impact across most categories decreases by 20–40% as the CO2 emission target becomes stricter. However, toxicity related impacts can become 35–100% higher. The integrated framework was also used to evaluate the Power-to-Methane (PtM) system to relate the electricity mix and various CO2 sources to the PtM environmental impact. To be more attractive than natural gas, the climate change impact of the electricity used for PtM should be 123–181 gCO2eq/kWh when the CO2 comes from air or biogenic sources and 4–62 gCO2eq/kWh if the CO2 is from fossil fuels. PtM can have an impact up to 10 times larger for impact categories other than climate change. A system without PtM results in ~4% higher climate change impact and 9% higher fossil depletion, while having 5–15% lower impact for most of the other categories. This is based on a scenario where 9 parameters favor PtM deployment and establishes the upper bound of the environmental impact PtM can have. Further studies should work towards integrating LCA feedback into ESM and standardizing the methodology.

Modeling the low-carbon transition of the European energy system - A quantitative assessment of the stranded assets problem

In this paper, multiple pathways for the European energy system until 2050 are computed, focusing on one of the major challenges of the low-carbon transition: the issue of unused capacities and stranded assets. Three different scenarios are analyzed, utilizing the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) for calculations. A major feature is the introduction of limited foresight and imperfect planning to the multi-sectoral approach of the model. A swift transition towards renewable energy sources is needed in order to ensure the goal of staying below 2 °C is maintained. This leads to the underutilization of current fossil-fueled plant capacities, an effect compounded by the prioritization of short-term goals over long-term targets. In the worst case, capacities with a combined value of up to 200 billion € corresponding to 260 GW total capacity may end up stranded by 2035, with significant shares in the coal and gas sectors. Contrary, in the baseline scenario featuring perfect foresight, this amount can by reduced by as much as 75%. Thus, the need for strong, clear signals from policy makers arises in order to combat the threat of short-sighted planning and investment losses.

Scenario analysis of energy system transition - A case study of two coastal metropolitan regions, eastern China

The scenario analysis focuses on two metropolitan regions of eastern China which are characterized by high energy consumption and related CO2 emissions. Current policies are rather short-term driven and weak regarding sectoral coupling and regional integration. As in China economic activities and population on the one hand and renewable energy resources on the other have a very imbalanced distribution, long-term integrated energy system modelling needs to consider specific regional challenges of efficiency improvement, coal reduction, transport decarbonization and multi-sector electrification. Three scenarios are constructed, namely a Current Policy Scenario (CPS), Natural Gas & Nuclear Scenario (NGNS) and Renewable & Import Scenario (RIS) based on a normative storyline-and-modelling approach. The simulation results show that regional CO2 emissions could be significantly reduced in all sectors with the adjustment of economic structure, adopted efficiency measures, fuels to replace coal and oil products and multi-sector electrification supported by enhanced power import capacity. The scenario analysis provides insights for a strategic implementation of long-term integrated energy transition options towards decarbonization for metropolitan regions both from supply and demand sides.

The Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study (GRAPHS): a cluster randomized trial of Liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and efficient biomass cookstoves delivered during pregnancy

OPS 33: Health impact of interventions 2, Room 411, Floor 4, August 28, 2019, 10:30 AM - 12:00 PM Background/Aim: Household air pollution from inefficient biomass cookstoves causes millions of avoidable deaths annually. We urgently need reliable information on potential interventions. The Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study (GRAPHS) was a cluster randomized trial assessing the effect of a cookstove intervention delivered during the first two trimesters of pregnancy on birth weight and on physician-assessed pneumonia during the first year of life. Methods: We recruited pregnant women in Kintampo North and South districts in Ghana prior to 24 weeks gestation, as determined via ultrasound performed by trained midwife, and assigned them to one of three study arms. In control arm communities, study participants continued to cook with traditional cookstoves. In LPG communities, households received one two-burner LPG cookstove and free LPG. In efficient biomass cookstove communities, households received two fan-assisted improved biomass-burning stoves. Control and efficient cookstove participants received LPG stoves at the end of the trial. Birth weight was assessed by study staff stationed in birth clinics, or, in the case of home births, by home visit within 24 hours of delivery; in both settings, birth weights were measured using calibrated digital scales. Trained field staff visited study children weekly during the first year of life, and referred all community-assessed respiratory illnesses to a study physician, who assessed pneumonia status using the WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines. Results: We enrolled 1414 non-smoking, pregnant women resulting in 1303 live births. 1122 infants completed follow-up through the first year of life, with 54,768 child-weeks of fieldworker surveillance. Our intention to treat analysis showed no significant difference in birth weight or physician-assessed IMCI pneumonia in either of the intervention arms. Conclusions: Neither intervention reduced pneumonia risk or increased birth weight. Future intervention studies should consider community-level energy system transitions.

Technological innovation system analysis in a follower country – The case of offshore wind in Poland

We assess the offshore wind innovation system in Poland using the Technological Innovation System (TIS) approach. This procedure has been widely used to describe the offshore wind innovation systems in Europe. However, the literature concerned European countries located at the technological frontier, while we examine this issue in a follower country, which is still waiting to deploy first offshore wind installation. The upcoming transition of energy system makes Poland a promising market for renewable technologies, and the geographical location places Poland as the main actor in kick-starting the offshore wind market on the Baltic Sea. However, in our study we identify a number of challenges for offshore wind technology deployment in Poland. Some of them include unpredictable public policies, limited grid infrastructure, rather poor quality of research and weak interactions between science and business. To address these issues, we propose a set of policy instruments. We also outline two main observations resulting from the TIS analysis applied to a follower country. First, the formulation of an appropriate policy decision is a precondition for the adoption of a new technology in a follower country, especially in sectors such as the energy sector. Second, due to the importance of imitation, we identify the relationship between entrepreneurial experimentation and knowledge exchange across geographical borders as critical for the innovation system’s performance in a follower country.

Evaluating grid-interactive electric bus operation and demand response with load management tariff

Electric Vehicles are expected to play a vital role in the transition of smart energy systems. Lots of recent research has explored numerous underlying mechanisms to achieve the synergetic interactions in the electricity balancing process. In this paper, the grid-interactive operation of electric buses is first time integrated within a dynamic market frame using the Distribution Locational Marginal Price algorithm for load congestion management. Since the defined problem correlates the opportunity charging flexibility with the bus mobility over a network, the tempo-spatial distribution of energy needs can be reflected in the dynamic of service planning. The interactions between bus operators and suppliers are quantitatively modelled by a bi-level optimisation process to represent the electric bus service planning and electricity market clearing separately. The effectiveness of the proposed load management has been demonstrated using data collected from an integrated real-world bus network. Experiments show that engagement of electric bus charging load in demand response is helpful to alleviate the network congestion and to reduce the power loss by 7.2% in the distribution network. However, alleviated charging loads have exhibited counter-intuitive capability for load shifting. The restricted electric bus operational requirements leads to a 8.17% loss of charging demand, while the reliance on large batteries has increased by 10.57%. However, the sensitivity analysis also shows that as the battery cost declines, the such discourage implications on grid-interactive electric bus operation will decrease once the battery cost below 190/kWh. The optimal grid-ebus integration have to consider the trade-off between range add-up, reduced battery cost and additional benefits.