Abstract
The main aim of models has never been to provide numbers, but insights. Still, challenges prevail for modelers to use the best configuration of their models to provide helpful insights. In the case of energy system modelling, this becomes even more complicated due to increasing complexity of the energy system transition through the potential and need for sector coupling. This paper therefore showcases specific characteristics and challenges for energy system modelling of 100% renewable scenarios. The findings are based on various applications and modifications of the framework GENeSYS-MOD examining different regional characteristics for high renewable configurations in the world, China, India, South-Africa, Mexico, Europe, Germany, and Colombia. The paper elaborates on our experiences of the last years of choosing the best, yet still computable, configuration of GENeSYS-MOD with respect to spatial and time resolution as well as sufficient detailed description of the energy system transition effects. The aim of this paper is therefore twofold, to better understand and interpret existing models as well as to improve future modeling exercises.
Highlights
CLAUDIA KEMFERTc abstract The main aim of models has never been to provide numbers, but insights
Bogdanov et al (2019) presented a sophisticated assessment of a globally 100% renewable power system. They were criticized by Egli, Steffen, and Schmidt (2019) for using globally uniform cost of capital assumptions, as they argue that these assumptions may result in distorted results and policy implications
They were criticized by Egli, Steffen, and Schmidt (2019) for using globally uniform cost of capital assumptions, as they argue that these assumptions may result in distorted results and policy implications. This rebuttal was answered by Bogdanov, Child, and Breyer (2019), who agree with some points, and highlight flaws in the rebuttal by Egli, Steffen, and Schmidt (2019)
Summary
This paper showcases specific characteristics and challenges for energy system modelling of 100% renewable scenarios. The main aim of models has never been to provide numbers, but insights (Huntington, Weyant, and Sweeney 1982)—still challenges prevail for modelers to use the best configuration of their models to provide helpful insights This becomes even more complicated due to increasing complexity of the energy system transition through the potential and need for sector coupling as well as rising international connections. OSeMOSYS is continually developed by a number of researchers worldwide in a decentralized manner and is used in countless scientific and policy advisory publications Based on this model, GENeSYS-MOD was developed for the present analyses. The model result is a cost-minimal combination of technologies to fully meet energy demand at all times Climate targets, such as a CO2 emissions budget, are explicitly specified as a condition for the model calculations. The global budget is hereby broken down to regional shares based on population figures of 2015
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