Energy Paradigm Research Articles

Перспективы развития российской нефтегазодобывающей отрасли в контексте энергетического перехода и формирования модели низкоуглеродной экономики

The article analyzes the prospects for the development of the Russian oil and gas industry in the context of the energy transition and the formation of a low-carbon economy model. The paper considers the main prerequisites, factors and trends contributing to the transformation of global energy and challenges for the Russian oil and gas industry against this background. A comparative analysis of the energy paradigm of the present time and its evolution in the near future is carried out. The modern energy paradigm is characterized by the dominant influence of the use of hydrocarbons, unidirectional movement of energy flows from producer to consumer, a high degree of vertical integration of supply in the energy market, poor energy efficiency, simultaneous production and consumption of energy. The key factors in the development of the energy of the future are the decentralization of energy production, its intellectualization, the increase in the efficiency and scale of the use of renewable energy technologies, and the increase in energy efficiency in consumption. Against this background, the influence of the oil and gas industry remains unchanged for a number of strategically important areas: sea and air transport for civil and military purposes, energy in remote and hard-to-reach regions. The authors conclude that the strategic importance of the Russian oil and gas industry remains unchanged in the next 100-150 years in the competitive conditions of a volatile market and environmental constraints.

Model za prognozu trendova u ostvarivanju energetske bezbednosti zemalja i regionalnih kompleksa

The paper describes and illustrates a simple, robust, yet sufficiently detailed model that ensures quick and accurate enough forecast of trends and their possible effect on the processes related to energy security and, accordingly, global security. The heuristic model also takes into account diversity in the understanding of the energy paradigm. It is based on the 4As definition of energy security (Acceptability, Availability, Affordability, Accessibility) and uses the regional security complex theory. It considers four factors of the first and twenty-three factors of the second level. The created model enables considering the factors that are difficult to measure, which makes the forecast comprehensive. The model is applied in the cases of the EU, Serbia and China. The conclusion is that a set of factors acting towards the reduction of energy security of the countries whose strategic aspiration is the "green paradigm" exceeds by far the number of those with positive effects. The results point to the conclusion that China should continue the current energy strategy. The actual application of the model, through the analysis of influential factors, indicates the problems that will have their security-related repercussions. The factors that need to be treated as priorities have been singled out if the actual situation needs improvement for the purpose of increasing and maintaining energy security of a country or a regional complex.

A Taxonomy and Lessons Learned From Blockchain Adoption Within the Internet of Energy Paradigm

A Taxonomy and Lessons Learned From Blockchain Adoption Within the Internet of Energy Paradigm

Achieving Net Zero Emissions in Italy by 2050: Challenges and Opportunities

This paper contributes to the climate policy discussion by focusing on the challenges and opportunities of reaching net zero emissions by 2050 in Italy. To support Italian energy planning, we developed energy roadmaps towards national climate neutrality, consistent with the Paris Agreement objectives and the IPCC goal of limiting the increase in global surface temperature to 1.5 °C. Starting from the Italian framework, these scenarios identify the correlations among the main pillars for the change of the energy paradigm towards net emissions by 2050. The energy scenarios were developed using TIMES-RSE, a partial equilibrium and technology-rich optimization model of the entire Italian energy system. Subsequently, an in-depth analysis was developed with the sMTISIM, a long-term simulator of power system and electricity markets. The results show that, to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, the Italian energy system will have to experience profound transformations on multiple and strongly related dimensions. A predominantly renewable-based energy mix (at least 80–90% by 2050) is essential to decarbonize most of the final energy consumption. However, the strong increase of non-programmable renewable sources requires particular attention to new flexibility resources needed for the power system, such as Power-to-X. The green fuels produced from renewables via Power-to-X will be a vital energy source for those sectors where electrification faces technical and economic barriers. The paper’s findings also confirm that the European “energy efficiency first” principle represents the very first step on the road to climate neutrality.

Single electricity market forecasting and energy arbitrage maximization framework

The rapid deployment of renewable-based generation to meet the net-zero carbon targets has affected the wholesale energy paradigm. In the island of Ireland, the Single Electricity Market (SEM) aims to deliver high levels of supply security, reliability, and transparency through multiple markets with different trading time frames and clearing procedures. This paper proposes a powerful methodology to maximize the revenues from the participation in the SEM. A forecasting model of four successive stages based on neural networks is proposed to predict the demand and system marginal prices of the SEM ex-ante markets. An energy arbitrage optimization framework is proposed for battery energy storage systems (BESS) to maximize the arbitrage profits. The methodology efficacy is validated by achieving 91.1% selling accuracy, 97.9% buying accuracy, and 85.1% energy arbitrage net accuracy of the ideal case where the SEM data is perfectly-known for three consecutive months. Furthermore, the BESS degradation is evaluated and a cost-benefit analysis is introduced to evaluate the economic feasibility of BESS participating in the SEM ex-ante markets. The results reveal that the participation of BESS in the SEM solely is not profitable, however, under stacked revenues arrangement, the proposed methodology can be applied to boost the BESS revenues.

Resilience-oriented schedule of microgrids with hybrid energy storage system using model predictive control

Microgrids can be regarded as a promising solution by which to increase the resilience of power systems in an energy paradigm based on renewable generation. Their main advantage is their ability to work as islanded systems under power grid outage conditions. Microgrids are usually integrated into electrical markets whose schedules are carried out according to economic aspects, while resilience criteria are ignored. This paper shows the development of a resilience-oriented optimization for microgrids with hybrid Energy Storage System (ESS), which is validated via numerical simulations. A hybrid ESS composed of hydrogen and batteries is, therefore, considered with the objective of improving the autonomy of the microgrid while achieving a rapid transition response. The control problem is formulated using Stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC) techniques in order to take into account possible transitions between grid-connected and islanded modes at all the sample instants of the schedule horizon (SH). The control problem is developed by considering a healthy operation of the hybrid ESS, thus avoiding degradation issues. The plant is modeled using the Mixed Logic Dynamic (MLD) framework, owing to the presence of logic and dynamic control variables.

Membrane-Electrode-Assembly Design Parameters and Their Impact on CO2 Reduction

CO2 electrolyzers that operate at high current densities and selectivities are essential for commercializing CO2 electroreduction and for a sustainable, CO2-neutral green energy paradigm. As part of this, membrane-electrode assemblies (MEAs) are critical components that enable industrial-scale electrochemical CO2 conversion to value-added fuels and chemicals. They consist of humidified gaseous feeds at one or both electrodes and a solid, ion-conducting polymer (ionomer) as the electrolyte. Such assemblies can overcome the experimentally observed ohmic and mass-transfer limitations characteristic of aqueous gas-diffusion electrode (GDE) and planar systems, respectively, which limit their maximum achievable current densities and render these systems impractical for industrial implementation.Foundational design parameters that characterize the ionomer-based catalyst layers unique to MEA systems include the ionomer-to-catalyst (I:Cat) ratio, the catalyst loading, and the catalyst layer thickness. In this talk, the results of a comprehensive experimental study on a Ag-cathode CO2 reduction (CO2R) MEA will be reported, where we systematically analyzed the effects of these design parameters on CO2R MEA performance and selectivity. An optimum, intermediate I:Cat ratio was uncovered and rationalized based on electrochemically-active surface area and ionomer distribution arguments. The effect of decreasing the catalyst loading and/or thickness corroborates previous modeling work, resulting in an optimum range for catalyst layer utilization for CO2R. The effect of MEA anolyte/exchange solution concentration on system performance is also explored, yielding an efficient Ag-cathode CO2R MEA that operates at 200 to 1000 mA/cm2, at CO FEs of 78 to 91%, and with an area-specific resistance of 1 Ω*cm2.The scientific and experimental design learnings from our Ag-cathode MEA studies are subsequently applied to a Cu-cathode MEA, which has farther reaching and impactful applications due to its ability to produce value-added chemical precursors like ethylene and ethanol. The Cu-MEA cathodic I:Cat ratio and catalyst loading are fixed based on settings from the optimized Ag-MEA and additional catalyst layer parameters and operating conditions are examined. This systematic exploration provides deeper insights into the underlying interrelationships between physical phenomena in the Cu-MEA system. Overall, these studies provide a fundamental understanding of the relationships between critical design parameters and inherent operating and materials tradeoffs for practical CO2 reduction devices. Acknowledgements The authors gratefully acknowledge Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Grant for funding.

Parametric Study for Thermal and Catalytic Methane Pyrolysis for Hydrogen Production: Techno-Economic and Scenario Analysis

As many countries have tried to construct a hydrogen (H2) society to escape the conventional energy paradigm by using fossil fuels, methane pyrolysis (MP) has received a lot of attention owing to its ability to produce H2 with no CO2 emission. In this study, a techno-economic analysis including a process simulation, itemized cost estimation, and sensitivity and scenario analysis was conducted for the system of thermal-based and catalyst-based MP (TMP-S1 and CMP-S2), and the system with the additional H2 production processes of carbon (C) gasification and water–gas shift (WGS) reaction (TMPG-S3 and CMPG-S4). Based on the technical performance expressed by H2 and C production rate, the ratio of H2 combusted to supply the heat required and the ratio of reactants for the gasifier (C, Air, and water (H2O)), unit H2 production costs of USD 2.14, 3.66, 3.53, and 3.82 kgH2−1 from TMP-S1, CMP-S2, TMPG-S3, and CMPG-S4, respectively, were obtained at 40% H2 combusted and a reactants ratio for C-Air-H2O of 1:1:2. Moreover, trends of unit H2 production cost were obtained and key economic parameters of the MP reactor, reactant, and C selling price were represented by sensitivity analysis. In particular, economic competitiveness compared with commercialized H2 production methods was reported in the scenario analysis for the H2 production scale and C selling price.

ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ РОССИЙСКОЙ НЕФТЕГАЗОВОЙ ОТРАСЛИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОГО ПЕРЕХОДА

The paper describes threats that the Russian oil and gas industry faces due to the transition to a new energy paradigm. It is demonstrated that the level of these threats depends on the time of this transition. Level of these threats will be different for oil and gas industries. Recommendations for adaption of the Russian oil and gas industry to the new energy paradigm. It is demonstrated that the development of alternative energy in our country will be auxiliary.

A new paradigm for civil nuclear energy. Perspectives from energy hierarchy and fundamental safety

A new paradigm for civil nuclear energy. Perspectives from energy hierarchy and fundamental safety

A new paradigm for civil nuclear energy. Perspectives from energy hierarchy and fundamental safety

A new paradigm for civil nuclear energy. Perspectives from energy hierarchy and fundamental safety

Can dark energy be dynamical?

We highlight shortcomings of the dynamical dark energy (DDE) paradigm. For parametric models with equation of state (EOS), $w(z) = w_0 + w_a f(z)$ for a given function of redshift $f(z)$, we show that the errors in $w_a$ are sensitive to $f(z)$: if $f(z)$ increases quickly with redshift $z$, then errors in $w_a$ are smaller, and vice versa. As a result, parametric DDE models suffer from a degree of arbitrariness and focusing too much on one model runs the risk that DDE may be overlooked. In particular, we show the ubiquitous Chevallier-Polarski-Linder model is one of the least sensitive to DDE. We also comment on ``wiggles" in $w(z)$ uncovered in non-parametric reconstructions. Concretely, we isolate the most relevant Fourier modes in the wiggles, model them and fit them back to the original data to confirm the wiggles at $\lesssim2\sigma$. We delve into the assumptions going into the reconstruction and argue that the assumed correlations, which clearly influence the wiggles, place strong constraints on field theory models of DDE.

Methodology for Calculating the Energy Security Index of the State: Taking into Account Modern Megatrends

Energy issue stays a top priority for the national security of most countries. Despite numerous international forums, large-scale geoeconomic research, international and national projects, and the development of appropriate strategies, the issue of energy security assessment and understanding of its terminology is not a universal practice. The presented study has an ambitious goal to develop a methodology that can provide an objective picture of the energy sector on an international scale with cross-country comparisons under the influence of modern megatrends. Based on 29 indicators, according to the World Bank data since 1991, the energy security index is calculated for the set of world states with further analysis of the cluster dynamics of their common trends in energy security. The index showed its objectivity and resistance to existing shocks in geoeconomic dynamics. An important feature of the proposed index is the possibility to compare the energy security index with 1. This value is, in fact, a European average: if a country has an energy security index greater than 1, it means that its energy level is currently better than the European average, and if it is lower than 1, it means that it is inferior to the level of energy security currently achieved on average in Europe. The concept of calculating the index of energy security of the state is based on a unified comparison of all countries, which allows us to move away from the use of signaling approaches and eliminate subjectivity in calculations, as well as provide a basis for dynamic comparison of energy security. The vital aspect of the index is that it takes into account changes in the energy paradigm, the transition to alternative energy sources, and the comprehension of the role of energy efficiency, in particular, of fossil fuels. The study identifies clusters of countries that have consistent similarities in energy security, which can usually be of practical interest in developing energy strategies and understanding the similarity of geoeconomic interests of these states. Thus, this article contributes not only to the development of scientific approaches to the assessment of energy issues, in particular, through the methodological development of a representative index, but also through the presentation of statistically sound results for further effective management decisions at the state level.

Toward a new energy paradigm in geography: revisiting the curriculum and teaching practices

Aim. The aim of the article is to investigate how energy topics are presented in the geography curriculum in Lithuania and how school geography becomes an educational response to the current global challenges related to energy production and consumption.
 Methods. The article presents research using several methods: review of literature on energy geography and energy literacy, analysis of Lithuanian national curriculum for geography, content analysis of 14 geography textbooks for forms 6–12, expert interview with 9 geography teachers.
 Results. The empirical research reveals that the national curriculum and textbooks still represent the old energy paradigm with a profound focus on fossil fuel and nuclear energy resources. Meanwhile, the new energy paradigm is realised in the teaching of experienced and qualified teachers who, in addition to the new green energy economy, emphasise environmental and social issues of energy use.
 Conclusions. The conclusions include observations on necessary changes in teaching energy geography: on the one hand, by revising the formal curriculum and textbooks and integrating concepts of energy literature and new energy developments; on the other hand, by initiating changes in primary and continuous teacher education. Professional development of teachers could include new energy topics, new teaching and learning sources (political debates in media, TV, strategic energy development documents), new teaching and learning strategies and methods.

Robust hierarchical dispatch for residential distribution network management considering home thermal flexibility and model predictive control

In the transactive energy (TE) paradigm, the devices of participative consumers, or prosumers, may be aggregated and employed to drive operational objectives at the network level. Home heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in particular are well-suited to modulate their behaviours based on both home thermal flexibility and requests from the utility grid. This paper develops a robust, hierarchical power dispatch scheme in the context of a residential distribution network. The formulation couples a unique, multiphase linear distribution optimal power flow (OPF) at the upper level with model predictive control (MPC)-based HVAC fleet controllers at the lower level. The proposed approach is tested on nearly 2000 homes with a three-phase distribution network in an intraday market setting, where two major applications are explored and analysed.

A multi-market nanogrid P2P energy and ancillary service trading paradigm: Mechanisms and implementations

In the presence of geographically dispersed distributed energy resources (DERs), the microgrid (MG) can be organized into a number of nanogrids (NGs) which provides an efficient approach to aggregating DERs for the participation of ancillary service with a high level of efficiency and controllability. In this regard, this paper presents a multi-market NG trading paradigm for simultaneous real-time imbalance elimination and frequency regulation procurement, based on the architecture of peer-to-peer (P2P) trading and communication. It comprises three consecutive markets: P2P bilateral energy market, balancing market and ancillary service market. Optimal offering strategies are designed to maximize the profits of producer NGs and meanwhile to tackle the capacity allocation tradeoffs among three markets. When it is approaching to real-time, the market will be closed with completion of balancing, and selected NGs with reserved capacity for the ancillary service will provide the real-time frequency regulation in a fully distributed manner. A parameter so-called engagement factor is designed based on the market clearing results to determine the deployment of frequency regulation service of each participated NGs. Subsequently, the pinning-based distributed secondary control upon P2P information sharing among NGs is implemented to regulate the frequency and ensuring the power sharing. The results of case studies indicate the feasibility of the proposed paradigm and its good performance, while different remuneration mechanisms are compared for discussion of their pros and cons.

A New Decentralized Control Strategy of Microgrids in the Internet of Energy Paradigm

The Energy Internet paradigm is the evolution of the Internet of Things concept in the power system. Microgrids (MGs), as the essential element in an Energy Internet, are expected to be controlled in a corporative and flexible manner. This paper proposes a novel decentralized robust control strategy for multi-agent systems (MASs) governed MGs in future Energy Internet. The proposed controller is based on a consensus algorithm applied with the connected distributed generators (DGs) in the MGs in the energy internet paradigm. The proposed controller’s objectives are the frequency/voltage regulation and proportional reactive/active power-sharing for the hybrid DGs connected MGs. A proposed two-level communication system is implemented to explain the data exchange between the MG system and the cloud server. The local communication level utilizes the transmission control protocol (TCP)/ internet protocol (IP) and the message queuing telemetry transport (MQTT) is used as the protocol for the global communication level. The proposed control strategy has been verified using a hypothetical hybrid DGs connected MG such as photovoltaic or wind turbines in MATLAB Simulink environment. Several scenarios based on the system load types are implemented using residential buildings and small commercial outlets. The simulation results have verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the introduced strategy for the MGs’ various operating conditions.

Стратегии поведения промышленного предприятия на энергетических рынках как инструмент реализации принципа рационального поведения

To ensure the sustainability of their market, energy-intensive industrial companies need to address energy efficiency issues. Companies that are prepared for higher tariffs, structural changes in fuel and energy markets, and shortages of energy resources have a wider range of options for responding to new challenges posed by the external environment and reducing their risks. This challenge becomes especially relevant in the context of the development of closed-loop economy aimed at resource optimization, energy conservation, zero-waste production and business models based on maximum operational efficiency. This research aims to build a comprehensive view of the rational behavior of industrial energy consumers in an effort to maximize the benefits and potential of energy markets to reduce the cost of energy supply, increase the level of electrification of industrial production and use the opportunity of their own energy business, as well as identify the main strategies of manufacturing companies in the energy market and the conditions for their effective implementation. The article describes the basic principles of rational behavior, which serve as a basis for the effective implementation of various strategies (seller’s, buyer’s or combined strategy) for industrial enterprises. The connection between rational behavior and management of the energy market potential in the company, as a combination of technological, economic and organizational actions, performed by the energy consumer in the competitive market, and effective management of market risks is shown. Forms of off-grid power supply and conditions of their application in production were analyzed on the example of mini-CHP. The offered classification of behavior strategies of an enterprise at the power market allows making a rational choice among various variants of behavior corresponding to concrete marketing purposes of the company. The choice can be made by analyzing the technological features of production processes, determining the marketing goals of the company, checking the volume of demand and the structure of demand (supply) for the main products of the company, as well as the amount of energy needed for production. It has been shown that as smallscale generation technologies become more advanced, having an on-site energy source becomes a more attractive option. Along with the penetration of smart technologies into core production practices and the transition to a new energy paradigm, conditions are created for the integrated use of various resource reserves.

The Constrained Air Transport Energy Paradigm in 2021

The increasing relevance of air transport as a contributor to climate change requires the development of emissions reduction technologies in a socio-economic and cultural context, where demand and air traffic have traditionally held sustained growth rates. However, the irruption of COVID-19 in 2020 has had an enormous negative impact on air travel demand and traffic volumes. Coincidentally, during 2020, new technology proposals for emissions reduction based on use of hydrogen and synthetic fuels have emerged from the aviation stake holders. By following a novel approach connecting the analysis of expectations of technology developments and their deployment into the fleet to market constraints, this study discusses how, even considering the new technology proposals and even if the COVID-19 has led to a completely different scenario in tourism and aviation, the air transport energy paradigm will remain unchanged in the upcoming decades as a consequence of market constraints, aircraft complexity, compliance with safety requirements, and extended life cycles. In this frame, aviation needs to keep on pursuing the abatement of its emissions while managing social expectations in a realistic manner and leaning on compensation schemes to achieve emissions contention while new technologies become serviceable in the longer term.

A Low-cost System for High-frequency Solar Imagery and Power Data Acquisition

With advances in solar energy research and increasingly accurate forecast techniques, intermittency no longer stands as a barrier to the adoption of solar energy. Coupling reliable data and knowledge on the inherent variability of the solar resource with advanced learning and forecast models, renewable energy can take an even bigger role in today’s energy paradigm. The objective of this work is to develop and test a low-cost data acquisition system able to provide relevant data for solar energy forecast models. The results yielded from the performed tests indicate high correlation between image derived attributes and power measurements 20 s ahead.