Перспективы развития российской нефтегазодобывающей отрасли в контексте энергетического перехода и формирования модели низкоуглеродной экономики

Abstract

The article analyzes the prospects for the development of the Russian oil and gas industry in the context of the energy transition and the formation of a low-carbon economy model. The paper considers the main prerequisites, factors and trends contributing to the transformation of global energy and challenges for the Russian oil and gas industry against this background. A comparative analysis of the energy paradigm of the present time and its evolution in the near future is carried out. The modern energy paradigm is characterized by the dominant influence of the use of hydrocarbons, unidirectional movement of energy flows from producer to consumer, a high degree of vertical integration of supply in the energy market, poor energy efficiency, simultaneous production and consumption of energy. The key factors in the development of the energy of the future are the decentralization of energy production, its intellectualization, the increase in the efficiency and scale of the use of renewable energy technologies, and the increase in energy efficiency in consumption. Against this background, the influence of the oil and gas industry remains unchanged for a number of strategically important areas: sea and air transport for civil and military purposes, energy in remote and hard-to-reach regions. The authors conclude that the strategic importance of the Russian oil and gas industry remains unchanged in the next 100-150 years in the competitive conditions of a volatile market and environmental constraints.