Emission Reduction Responsibilities Research Articles

Characterization of Industrial Carbon Emission Dynamics and Network Structure Evolution in China

Given that industry is the major source of carbon emissions, clarifying the carbon transfer regularity triggered by industry production linkage is of great importance in realizing the synergistic development of industry to reduce pollution and carbon emissions. Based on the perspective of responsibility allocation, the study accounted for the industry carbon emissions and constructed a carbon transfer weighted directed network model and applied the social network analysis method to explore the structure of the industry carbon transfer network and its evolution characteristics from 2005 to 2020. The results showed that： ① The overall carbon emissions of industries from 2005 to 2020 presented a rapid growth trend and large differences occurred in emissions between industries. ② The scale of the carbon transfer network was expanding rapidly and the characteristics of the small-world network were significant. ③ The community structure of the carbon transfer network was obvious, including four optimal associations： high carbon emission, carbon transmission, carbon endogenous, and high spillover. ④ The construction industry and the metal smelting and rolling processing industry were the core of the carbon transfer network structure, with strong network control. In view of the above characteristics, we proposed countermeasures and suggestions in terms of implementing the allocation of carbon emission reduction responsibilities and differentiated emission reduction measures for associations as well as focusing on the management of core nodes of the network, with the intent of providing cross-sectoral synergistic emission reduction ideas for the development of sustainable low-carbon transformation in China's industry sector.

Analysis of carbon peak achievement at the provincial level in China: Construction of ensemble prediction models and Monte Carlo simulation

As China advances toward its carbon peaking goals, many regions face the challenge of balancing rapid economic growth with sustainable development. Evaluating carbon emissions at the provincial level is crucial for formulating effective strategies to achieve China's carbon peak targets. This study aims to construct an accurate model for predicting carbon emissions and to explore the evolution of these emissions across Chinese provinces, as well as their contributions to national carbon peak targets. Using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory, the 30 provinces were categorized into groups. An ensemble carbon emissions forecasting model was developed by integrating time-series models with multifactor models. Three scenarios were established within the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Monte Carlo simulations were employed to explore potential pathways to achieve carbon peaks. The results indicate that China will reach its carbon emission peak between 2030 and 2031, with peak values expected to range between 11,499.65 and 11,629.51 Mt. Significant differences were observed among the provincial groups in their contributions to carbon peaking. Groups II and III are projected to peak in 2030 and 2022, respectively, while Groups I and IV face greater challenges, with peak years projected between 2032–2035 and 2031–2034, respectively. Four tiers with different emission reduction responsibilities were identified by comparing the peak times of the 30 provinces under the three scenarios, and optimal recommendations for achieving carbon peaks were proposed for each province. The accurate prediction models and Monte Carlo simulations provide reliable results for achieving carbon peak targets across Chinese provinces, offering a scientific basis for optimizing national carbon emission reduction policies.

Reassessment of the Emission Reduction Responsibilities of Wealthy Individuals and Corporations: Considerations based on the Perspective of Resource Availability

Minimizing emissions has become a crucial element in the fight against global climate change. This study will employ resource dependence theory to assess the participation of wealthy individuals and corporations in the worldwide effort to decrease emissions, particularly with regards to natural, human, and capital resources. The objective is to demonstrate the crucial role that affluent individuals and major corporations play in promoting climate action. In conclusion, we recommend enhancing the management of these organizations' resource utilization and implementing stronger environmental protection measures to prevent their economic activities from undermining the attainment of global climate objectives. This study offers fresh insights into comprehending and advancing more efficient worldwide strategies for reducing emissions, emphasizing the substantial influence of affluent individuals and major corporations who exploit resources in global emissions reduction endeavors.

Study on the Initial Allocation of Carbon Emission Rights Applicable to China's National Conditions: from the Perspective of Comprehensive Principles

<p>The scientific and reasonable allocation of initial carbon emission rights is the foundation of establishing and perfecting the carbon trading system, which is directly associated with the completion of carbon emission reduction targets. Guided by the rational distribution of China's carbon emission rights, this paper adopts a multi-index method to investigate the initial distribution of China's carbon emission rights from a regional perspective according to the comprehensive principles of fairness, efficiency, sustainability, and environmental capacity limit. The results show that the use of regional historical carbon emissions or economic factors as a single indicator of carbon emission rights distribution is unreasonable according to historical emissions or GDP, and the results are quite different from the actual demand. Under the overall coordination degree allocation model, it is reasonable for Region 2, Region 3, and Region 4 to undertake higher emission reduction responsibilities, and the emission reduction tasks in these regions are likely to be completed, which shows that the carbon emission rights allocation under the comprehensive principle is more in line with the actual demand and has good operability, robustness, and compatibility. The allocation of carbon emission quota requires the scientific and reasonable formulation of the total national allocation, that all provinces and cities can form a stable quota expectation, effectively design the allocation principle scheme, give consideration to fairness and operability, and do not share the responsibility of regional emission reduction with a one-size-fits-all approach.</p>

Research on Provincial Distribution of Total Carbon Emissions in the Power Generation Industry under Carbon Neutrality Constraints

The power generation industry in China is at the forefront of implementing carbon trading market policies, playing a crucial role in carbon emission reduction. Carbon allocation in each province is pivotal for future economic development and achieving a gradual and orderly carbon peak. By analyzing total carbon emissions from 2012 to 2021 and examining emission responsibilities from a producer perspective, this study extends the STIRPAT model to evaluate factors influencing carbon emissions in the national and provincial power generation sectors. Key findings highlight the urgent need for industrial structure changes in provinces like Xinjiang, Tibet, Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu, which bear significant emission reduction responsibilities. The spatial and temporal distribution of carbon emissions is shifting from the southeast coast to central and western regions. Factors such as energy consumption, electric power intensity, urbanization rate, power structure, economic development level, and industrial composition significantly impact carbon emissions. To achieve carbon peak goals, a multifaceted approach is essential for reducing emissions in China's power generation sector, emphasizing the need for strategic interventions across various perspectives.

Measurement of carbon emissions and responsibility sharing for the industrial sector in Zhejiang, China

Carbon reduction is imperative for achieving carbon peaking and neutrality. Accordingly, it is important to determine which industrial sectors have more responsibility in this matter. Based on data from Zhejiang's input-output tables, this study applies the Input-Output method to measure and compare the carbon emissions of 42 industrial sectors in Zhejiang Province from 2002 to 2017, and then assesses the carbon emission attributes of each industrial sector, and ultimately determines the responsibility for carbon emission reduction from the perspectives of the producers and consumers. The results of the study show that direct carbon emissions and whole-process carbon emissions in Zhejiang increased continuously from 2002 to 2017, with carbon emission intensity first decreasing and then increasing. However, carbon emission intensity was much lower in 2017 than in 2002. Over time, the attributes of carbon emissions by sector changed little. Particularly, high-carbon sectors covered most of the energy supply sectors, low-carbon sectors were mostly tertiary-related, and pseudo-low-carbon sectors were mainly found in the productive services sector. In terms of carbon emission reduction responsibilities, there are large differences in emission reduction responsibilities between sectors, with the electricity and heat sectors bearing the largest responsibilities based on their production, consumption and total carbon emission reductions. The conclusions of this study can provide some data support for the further development of carbon peak and carbon neutral plans.

Carbon Trading and Port Subsidies for Shipping Companies’ Emission Reduction Strategies Research

In the context of a carbon trading mechanism, this study examines the distribution of emission reduction responsibilities between ports and shipping companies. By constructing Stackelberg game models in four scenarios, equilibrium strategies are found from both economic and environmental dimensions, and the impacts of carbon pricing and port green subsidies on the economy and environment are analyzed. The research indicates that, considering both economic and environmental benefits, it is optimal for members of the port and shipping supply chain to undertake emission reduction investments. Furthermore, under the carbon trading mechanism, the profits of ports and shipping companies vary with carbon prices, with the highest profits for ports in the YY scenario. The YN and YY scenarios enhance emission reduction efficiency, while the environmental damage in the NY scenario may be close to that in the NN scenario. Green subsidies improve the profits and environmental performance of port and shipping enterprises, highlighting the critical role of green subsidies in environmental benefits.

Identifying critical transmission sectors by a new approach: Intermediate-based accounting

Identifying transmission sectors that may not be revealed by existing indicators, such as production-based emission (PBE) and consumption-based emission (CBE) accounting, is significant in emission reduction policies and provides insights into novel opportunities for companies and industries to reduce emissions. This study proposed an intermediate-based emission (IBE) accounting approach that considers indirect emissions from intermediate goods production and a case study was conducted using Exiobase 3.8. The highest IBE sector was ‘basic iron’ (1131 Mt-CO2), and the sector’s IBE was higher than its PBE (1052 Mt-CO2). Additionally, the material sector, such as aluminum products (326 Mt-CO2), was identified as a key transmission sector, although PBE (21 Mt-CO2) and CBE (3 Mt-CO2) of the sector is very low. In addition, IBEs were observed to be closely related to overall supply chain emissions in Germany, Japan, and Asia, and cooperation is required to reduce the emissions. The method enables approaching supply chains with large emissions from three perspectives (production-, consumption-, and intermediate-based accounting) and exploration of the emission reduction responsibilities of the three key sectors. The utility and discussion of the approach are consistent with Scope 3 emissions and facilitate fair allocation of emission reduction responsibilities to a larger number of countries and industries.

Medium- and Long-Term Prediction of Airport Carbon Emissions under Uncertain Conditions Based on the LEAP Model

As important nodes in the air transport system, it is of great significance for airports to achieve the carbon-peaking goal before 2030 under the target of peaking carbon emissions in China’s civil aviation industry. However, it remains unknown whether airports will be able to realize this ambitious goal due to a variety of uncertain factors, such as the social economy, epidemic impact, and emission reduction measures. According to the possibilities of uncertain factors, 12 uncertain scenarios were constructed. Using the case of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (CAN), this study predicted medium- and long-term carbon emission trends under 12 uncertain scenarios based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Furthermore, the effects of carbon abatement measures and emission reduction responsibilities were analyzed. The results show that CAN cannot guarantee that it will realize the goal under the established abatement policy. If socioeconomic development is rapid, carbon emissions will peak at about 90 kt tons in 2030, and if socioeconomic development is slow, it will plateau at about 1 million tons between 2030 and 2035. What is more, airlines bear the greatest responsibility for reducing emissions, and technological progress measures have the highest abatement potential. This study provides decision support for airport stakeholders in abatement work so as to ensure that airports can achieve the carbon-peaking goal.

Collaborative management of the energy-water-carbon footprint: analysing the spatial network characteristics

Water and energy consumption and carbon emissions caused by humans have vital impacts on the natural environment. Due to the dramatic global environmental pollution problem, understanding the relationship between these factors is emerging as an important approach to realising sustainable development. However, with the strengthening of interregional trade links, it is difficult to manage and evaluate their relationship. Therefore, from the perspective of regional and industrial sectors, using the multiregional input-output (MRIO) model and social network analysis (SNA), our research explores an innovative analytical methodology to evaluate the characteristics of the energy-water-carbon spatial network, and a scheme is proposed to improve it. The results demonstrate that the characteristics of water scarcity and energy enrichment could lead to a net inflow of the water footprint and a net outflow of the energy and carbon footprints. Moreover, traditional high-energy-consumption industrial sectors contribute significantly to the energy and carbon footprints. The energy-water-carbon spatial network correlation is low and unstable, and it lacks rationalisation and balance in resource-based areas. Network-based energy-water-carbon research provides more insights toward understanding the carbon emission reduction responsibilities of industrial supply chains. Our findings provide a reference for reducing the energy-water-carbon footprint and achieving the carbon reduction goal of China.

Tracking Carbon Flows from Coal Mines to Electricity Users in China Using an Ensemble Model.

Accurately tracking carbon flows is crucial for preventing carbon leakage and allocating responsibility for reducing CO2eq emissions. In this study, we developed an ensemble model to effectively track carbon flows within China's power system. Our approach integrates coal quality tests, individual power plant datasets, a dynamic material-energy flow analysis model, and an extended version of an interconnected power grid model that incorporates transmission and distribution (T&D) losses. Our results not only provide accurate quantification of unit-based CO2eq emissions based on coal quality data but also enable the assessment of emissions attributed to T&D losses and emission shifts resulting from interprovincial coal and electricity trade. Remarkably, for CO2eq emissions from coal-fired units, the disparity between the guideline and our study can be as high as [-95%, 287%]. We identify Guangdong, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces as the major importers of both coal and electricity, responsible for transferring nearly half of their user-based emissions to coal and power bases. Significantly, T&D losses, often overlooked, contribute to 15-20% of provincial emissions at the user side. Our findings emphasize the necessity of up-to-date life cycle emissions and spatial carbon shifts in effectively allocating emission reduction responsibilities from the national level to provinces.

Carbon Inequality Embodied in Inter-Provincial Trade of China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt

Regional trade leads to carbon transfer, which in turn raises the issue of carbon inequality. However, less existing research has focused on carbon inequality within megaregions. Combining multi-regional input-output analysis, carbon Gini coefficients and carbon deviation coefficients, this paper presents a comprehensive analysis of carbon equity in inter-provincial trade in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB) from the perspective of economic benefits and environmental pressure. The results show that: (1) Carbon emissions from the production and consumption sides of the 11 provinces in the YEB vary considerably. (2) Significant carbon inequality exists in the YEB region. This is manifested in the unequal relationship between the transfer of embodied carbon emissions and economic benefits, as well as the difference in carbon deviation coefficients. Based on the results of our research, this paper can help provide theoretical support and decision-making reference for implementing a differentiated carbon emission reduction responsibility mechanism and establishing a coordinated carbon emission reduction responsibility system.

Are tax revenue recycling schemes based on industry-differentiated carbon tax conducive to realizing the “double dividend”?

Carbon tax policies based on industry differences can produce better emission reductions, but their economic losses have not been fully considered. To guarantee the fairness and economic effectiveness of the carbon emission reduction, this paper explores the policy impacts of revenue recycling schemes based on industry-differentiated carbon taxes using a dynamic CGE model. The findings show that revenue recycling schemes can effectively mitigate the negative macroeconomic and industry output impacts of industry-differentiated carbon taxes, but also affects their carbon reduction effects. The indirect carbon tax revenue recycling schemes are more beneficial than the direct recycling schemes in reducing GDP loss, and corporate income tax reduction is most effective in mitigating the reduction in fixed asset investment. The applicability of different carbon tax revenue recycling schemes varies across industries, and in general corporate income tax reduction and subsidies to clean energy industries are more beneficial to carbon emission reduction, and indirect carbon tax revenue recycling schemes that reduce residential and corporate income taxes can achieve stronger “double dividend”. This paper suggests that China should adopt a industry-differentiated carbon tax with a fair distribution of emission reduction responsibilities, while achieving a “double dividend” through appropriate revenue recycling schemes.

Assessment of embodied carbon transfer in China’s interregional gas–electricity–heat trade based on multi-stream and multi-node model

With the implementation of the national ”dual carbon” goal, fully and effectively evaluating the spatial carbon transfer of regional natural gas–electricity–heat trade flows will help to better clarify the regional carbon emission reduction responsibilities and improve the efficiency of regional coordinated emission reduction. Therefore, this paper adopts an accounting system based on production and consumption, constructs a multi-stream and multi-node carbon transfer assessment model of regional natural gas–electricity–heat chain, calculates the embodied carbon transfer of natural gas–electricity–heat trade transmission, and analyzes the path of spatial transfer of implied carbon emissions between regions in China. The results show that the implicit spatial carbon transfer pattern of China’ s gas, electricity and heat cross-regional trade shows that Beijing, Tianjin and coastal developed areas have gradually become the main carbon inflows, and the NWC, NEC and other regions with rich resources but underdeveloped areas have become the main carbon outflows; the path of regional carbon transfer is roughly from upstream underdeveloped regions to downstream regions with better economic development, of which the secondary and tertiary transfers of embodied carbon from natural gas account for 6.1% and 0.8% of the total transfer.

Which industrial path contributed to CO2 transfer and emissions slowing-down of China and the United States most in international trade?

Carbon transfer in international trade has triggered disputes on environmental equity between developed and developing countries. Hence, it is urgent to make it clear the carbon transfer process of international trade between China and the United States, explore the adjustment plan of emission reduction responsibility and formulate targeted emission reduction measures. These will play an important leading and demonstration effect in addressing global warming and coordinating international carbon reduction. This study built a CO2 international trade transfer network model of China and the United States. Based on identifying the carbon transfer path flowing from primary product sector to final production sector, and then to final consumption, we analyzed the industrial association relationship and distribution differences between China and the United States with external countries and regions. Lastly, we put forward emission reduction policy implication in industrial scale. The key paths of China and the United States are concentrated in the two export and import transfer types respectively. Among the key paths of China's bilateral primary production export type, paths from domestic Electricity, Gas and Water to foreign Construction accounted for the largest 40% share. As for the United States, transfer type of bilateral final production import is the most prominent, and path number and flow from foreign Transport to domestic Public Administration both accounted for more than 30%. Based on shared responsibility to adjust the emission reduction tasks under the Paris Agreement, China and the US will allow to emit 10% more and reduce 6% more, reaching 54% and 25% respectively. Taking into full consideration the national economic development level and the differences in the production technology level of industrial sectors, as well as the upstream and downstream related sectors' relationship, the refined emission reduction strategy is proposed from different aspects, such as technical assistance, financial support, import control, technology sharing and consumption transformation.

Modeling forest carbon sink trading with carbon credit using stochastic differential game

Forest carbon sinks integrated into the carbon trading is an important way to solve the funding shortage of carbon emission reduction and is a major measure to achieve carbon sequestration and thereby carbon neutrality. We propose a carbon credit trading mechanism based on forest carbon sinks and build an optimal carbon credit trading model on forest companies and manufacturers. The scale of carbon sink forest and trading price is determined by stochastic differential game method. Reasonable emission reduction responsibilities are set to achieve coordination between forest carbon sequestration and economic development. The results show that farsighted forest company is more likely to participate in carbon credit trade when the total amount of forest carbon sequestration is small, while shortsighted forest company is more likely to participate in carbon credit trade when the total amount of forest carbon sequestration is large. Low emission reduction responsibility in carbon credit trade is conductive to increasing forest carbon sequestration, and improving the enthusiasm of shortsighted forest company to participate in the trade, which reflects the superiority of the proposed carbon credit trading mechanism. This implies that the forest company should undertake low emission reduction responsibilities to achieve a win-win situation for economic and environmental benefits.

Operational decisions of low-carbon supply chains with triple bottom line under carbon tax policy

PurposeUnder the carbon tax policy, the authors examine the operational decisions of the low-carbon supply chain with the triple bottom line.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses the Stackelberg game theory to obtain the optimal wholesale prices, retail prices, sales quantities and carbon emissions in different cases, and investigates the effect of the carbon tax policy.FindingsThis study’s main results are as follows: (1) the optimal retail price of the centralized supply chain is the lowest, while that of the decentralized supply chain where the manufacturer undertakes the carbon emission reduction (CER) responsibility and the corporate social responsibility (CSR) is the highest under certain conditions. (2) The sales quantity when the retailer undertakes the CER responsibility and the CSR is the largest. (3) The supply chain obtains the highest profits when the retailer undertakes the CER responsibility and the CSR. (4) The environmental performance impact decreases with the carbon tax.Practical implicationsThe results of this study can provide decision-making suggestions for low-carbon supply chains. Besides, this paper provides implications for the government to promote the low-carbon market.Originality/valueMost of the existing studies only consider economic responsibility and social responsibility or only consider economic responsibility and environmental responsibility. This paper is the first study that examines the operational decisions of low-carbon supply chains with the triple bottom line under the carbon tax policy.

Study on the Spatial Differences, Dynamic Evolution and Convergence of Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Reducing carbon emissions is essential for global sustainable development and has become a key concern around the world. In this study, we analyzed the spatial differences, dynamic evolution and convergence characteristics of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 92 countries from 1990 to 2021. The Dagum Gini coefficient, Kernel density analysis, Markov chain analysis and fixed effect model were used in this study. The results showed that, from the perspective of overall differences, the overall differences in global CO2 emissions during the study period showed a gradually increasing trend, and the inequality trend became more and more obvious. Based on the perspective of distribution dynamics, there is an obvious spatial disequilibrium of global CO2 emissions. In terms of the evolution law, its distribution dynamic law is relatively stable, the relative position of CO2 emissions is relatively stable, and different groups transfer to themselves with a greater probability. There is no obvious σ convergence in global CO2 emissions, but there is absolute β convergence. This study innovatively analyzed the differential characteristics of carbon dioxide emissions from a global perspective. The research results can provide a reference for clarifying countries’ carbon emission reduction responsibilities and promoting the green transformation of the global economy.

Study on Embodied CO2 Emissions and Transfer Pathways of Chinese Industries

Industries with low direct CO2 emissions downstream in the industry chain have significant carbon emissions upstream, which is similar to how carbon leakage in interprovincial regions and international commerce affects these regions. Due to the interchange and transit of goods, there are intermediate production and consumption processes across industrial sectors. The CO2 emissions produced by each sector are insufficient to satisfy the sector’s ultimate demand. It will also move along with the industrial chain. Investigating embodied carbon transfer across industrial sectors is crucial to strike a balance between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. Locating the key sectors to reduce carbon emissions provides a basis for formulating resource conservation and environmental protection policies. In this study, the industrial sector divides into 24 subsectors, and the embodied CO2 emissions and carbon transfer pathways of each are examined from the viewpoint of the industrial chain using the Economic Input–Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) and the Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM). The indirect CO2 emissions downstream of the industrial chain are higher than the direct carbon dioxide emissions, and the intersectoral carbon transfer constitutes a significant part of the total carbon emissions of the industrial sector. The upstream sector of the industry chain has a significantly higher direct carbon emission intensity than the indirect CO2 emission intensity, while the downstream sector is the opposite. The production and supply of electricity, gas and water, and raw material industries transfer significant CO2 to other sectors. The manufacturing industry is mainly the inflow of CO2. CO2 flows from the mining industry to the raw material industry and from the raw material industry to the manufacturing industry constitute the critical pathway of carbon transfer between industries. A study on the embodied carbon emissions and transfer paths of various industrial sectors is conducive to clarifying the emission reduction responsibilities and providing a basis for synergistic emission reduction strategies.

Study on the characteristics of embodied carbon emission transfer in China’s power sector based on input-output networks

Electricity is an essential factor of production. The trade of goods and services between different industrial sectors in different regions may lead to the transfer of embodied carbon emissions in the power sector, which makes the problem of “carbon leakage” widespread. As the world’s largest CO2 emitter, China’s systematic identification of the patterns and structural characteristics of embodied carbon transfer in its power sector is essential for reasonably defining emission reduction responsibilities and scientifically formulating emission reduction policies. Few studies have focused on interprovincial transfer characteristics of embodied carbon emissions in the power sector. Based on the multi-regional input-output tables of China in 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2017, this paper combined the complex network theory to construct the interprovincial power embodied carbon transfer networks (PECTNs1) of China, analyzed the topological nature, community structure and identified the key provinces in the networks with the help of complex network indicators. The results indicate that both direct and embodied carbon emissions from China’s power sector present an increasing trend during the study period. The scale and scope of power carbon emission transfer between provinces have been expanding, showing an transfer trend from west to east and north to south. China’s PECTNs have small-world characteristics. From 2010 to 2017, the sub-regional phenomenon in China’s PECTNs gradually decreased. In the network community, the provinces with stable relationships are close to each other and have closer carbon correlation. Coal resource-based and large economic provinces with high power demand tend to be the core of the networks. The position of Xinjiang in the networks is gradually prominent. According to the results of the study, differentiated carbon emission reduction schemes are formulated based on the roles played by different provinces to provide ideas for embodied carbon reduction among provinces in China’s power sector.