Analysis of carbon peak achievement at the provincial level in China: Construction of ensemble prediction models and Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

As China advances toward its carbon peaking goals, many regions face the challenge of balancing rapid economic growth with sustainable development. Evaluating carbon emissions at the provincial level is crucial for formulating effective strategies to achieve China's carbon peak targets. This study aims to construct an accurate model for predicting carbon emissions and to explore the evolution of these emissions across Chinese provinces, as well as their contributions to national carbon peak targets. Using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory, the 30 provinces were categorized into groups. An ensemble carbon emissions forecasting model was developed by integrating time-series models with multifactor models. Three scenarios were established within the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Monte Carlo simulations were employed to explore potential pathways to achieve carbon peaks. The results indicate that China will reach its carbon emission peak between 2030 and 2031, with peak values expected to range between 11,499.65 and 11,629.51 Mt. Significant differences were observed among the provincial groups in their contributions to carbon peaking. Groups II and III are projected to peak in 2030 and 2022, respectively, while Groups I and IV face greater challenges, with peak years projected between 2032–2035 and 2031–2034, respectively. Four tiers with different emission reduction responsibilities were identified by comparing the peak times of the 30 provinces under the three scenarios, and optimal recommendations for achieving carbon peaks were proposed for each province. The accurate prediction models and Monte Carlo simulations provide reliable results for achieving carbon peak targets across Chinese provinces, offering a scientific basis for optimizing national carbon emission reduction policies.