Research on Provincial Distribution of Total Carbon Emissions in the Power Generation Industry under Carbon Neutrality Constraints

Abstract

The power generation industry in China is at the forefront of implementing carbon trading market policies, playing a crucial role in carbon emission reduction. Carbon allocation in each province is pivotal for future economic development and achieving a gradual and orderly carbon peak. By analyzing total carbon emissions from 2012 to 2021 and examining emission responsibilities from a producer perspective, this study extends the STIRPAT model to evaluate factors influencing carbon emissions in the national and provincial power generation sectors. Key findings highlight the urgent need for industrial structure changes in provinces like Xinjiang, Tibet, Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu, which bear significant emission reduction responsibilities. The spatial and temporal distribution of carbon emissions is shifting from the southeast coast to central and western regions. Factors such as energy consumption, electric power intensity, urbanization rate, power structure, economic development level, and industrial composition significantly impact carbon emissions. To achieve carbon peak goals, a multifaceted approach is essential for reducing emissions in China's power generation sector, emphasizing the need for strategic interventions across various perspectives.