Electric Power Plants Research Articles

Ultrasonic measurement of temperature distributions in extreme environments: Electrical power plants testing in utility-scale steam generators

Thermal heterogeneities within energy conversion and storage, material processing, nuclear processes, aerospace, and military applications are often inaccessible to characterization by insertion sensors. When sensor deployment is possible, conventional pointwise temperature probes quickly degrade when inserted into harsh environments typical of such processes. We developed spatially-resolved ultrasonic thermometry to noninvasively measure the spatial distributions of thermal properties in such applications, even when sizable thermal gradients are present. Our method divides the path of ultrasonic propagation into segments bound by echogenic features, which create echoes in pulse-echo mode, encoding the information about interior temperature distributions. We use the acquired ultrasonic responses to estimate the internal temperature distributions by solving an inverse problem or concatenating segmental estimates. This work describes the implementation and industrial testing of the developed method at a coal-fired electrical power generation plant. We inserted an echogenically segmented Inconel 625 waveguide into the combustion zone of the utility-scale boiler and continuously acquired ultrasonic data while keeping sensitive components away from the damaging combustion environment. The accuracy of the time-dependent temperature distributions reconstructed from the ultrasonic measurements was comparable to that of thermocouples. The resiliency of ultrasonic thermometry to harsh combustion conditions was far superior to conventional insertion sensors. The measurements obtained during plant operation captured daily steam generation cycles in response to changing customer demand and intermittent contributions of renewable power sources to the power grid. These measurements have revealed new insights into the relationship between the dynamic power generation load and the conditions inside the steam generator. The successful industrial testing of spatially-resolved ultrasonic thermometry in solids indicates that the developed technology has matured to become an attractive alternative to conventional sensing in solving challenging problems of long-term thermal characterizations in extreme environments.

Effects of Rapid Thermal Cycling (Cold Shock) on Fish Health: Evidence from Controlled Laboratory Experiments, Behavior, and Telemetry

Powerplants frequently use river water for cooling, subsequently discharging warm effluent. Some of these plants can cycle on and off rapidly based on electricity demand, resulting in dramatic temperature fluctuations in the receiving waters. To understand the impacts on resident fish populations in the Upper Mississippi River, we (i) assessed the effects of rapid water cooling on three native fish species; (ii) investigated whether smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) behavior favored movement into thermal plumes when given a choice of cooler or ambient water; and (iii) tracked native M. dolomieu with acoustic tags and recorded core body temperature during the thermal cycling process of a steam electric powerplant. In cold shock experiments, mortality was associated with rapid temperature declines and dependent on the final (cold) holding temperature. The species or developmental stage of the tested organism did not affect survival. When given a choice between warm and ambient waters, M. dolomieu exhibited little inclination to acclimate to the warmer water and instead “self-regulated” by moving in and out of the warm water plume. This finding was supported by telemetry data on M. dolomieu. The core temperature of the fish never increased more than 2 °C above the ambient (upstream) Mississippi River temperature, even during warm effluent discharge.

Technical and Economic Assessment of the Use of Alternative Fuels from Waste at Thermal Electric Power Plants in Exchange for Traditional Fuels

Technical and Economic Assessment of the Use of Alternative Fuels from Waste at Thermal Electric Power Plants in Exchange for Traditional Fuels

Financialization, dependence, and state regulation: The accumulation strategies of German energy companies in Hungary

In recent years, geographical scholarship has paid an increasing amount of attention to the accumulation strategies of energy and public utility companies. This article contributes to these debates by emphasizing the multiscalar nature of profit extraction by transnational energy companies through financialization, dependent power relations, and state regulation regarding transnational energy companies. Empirically, this article analyzes German energy companies’ activities in Hungary. These energy giants bought Hungarian gas and electricity providers, networks, and power plants during the privatization waves of the 1990s, and largely left the Hungarian market after the 2010s re-nationalization process. Previous literature emphasized nation-state agency in the Hungarian energy sector’s development. This study—based on an analysis of companies’ annual reports, media coverage, and financial statements—draws attention to firm-level strategies in understanding techniques and strategies of accumulation by German energy companies in Hungary.

Monitoring and Distribution of some Air Pollutants Levels Around Al- Zubaydiah Electrical Power Plant in Wasit Governorate, Iraq

The studies tries to evaluate the gaseous pollutants produced through the AL-Zubaydiah thermal energy station in Iraq. The studies have targeted on carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon oxide (CO), unstable natural compounds (VOC), and decrease explosive limit (LEL) gases, the usage of a gasmet transportable tool to degree fueloline awareness. The top-rated ten webweb sites have been selected close to Al-Zubaydiah energy plants, considering the wind route, which represents the best distribution of contaminants. The researchers investigated air pollutants withinside the contrary route of the wind, the usage of samples out of ten from every season. The samples have been amassed from seasons; the primary turned into on February 26th, 2022, and the second one turned into on May 14th, 2022. The sampling webweb sites have been selected for every season and allotted across the energy plant to assess the ratio of gases withinside the air of the studied location.In this investigation, CO2, CO, VOC, and LEL the usage of the gasmeter positional measurements have been taken best in February 2022 and May 2022 utilising the gadget depicted indicates the variety of CO withinside the iciness recorded for the examine location (0–6 ppm), wherein the very best awareness turned into in station 1 and the bottom awareness turned into in stations 3, 8, 9, and 10. The VOC withinside the iciness recorded for the examine location ranged from 0.1 to 0.five ppm, wherein the very best awareness turned into in station five, and the bottom awareness in station 2.

ABOUT FUNCTIONAL DIAGNOSTICS OF CARS WITH AN ELECTRIC POWER PLANT

The article is devoted to the development of a method of functional diagnostics of cars with an electric power plant on stands with running drums. The necessity of carrying out functional diagnostics of cars with an electric power plant is analyzed. The reasons hindering the development and implementation of the bench method for monitoring the technical condition of cars with an electric power plant are considered. The article presents the results obtained by the authors in previous works. The developed mathematical models are presented, test modes for testing cars with an electric power plant on a stand with running drums are proposed. The results of analytical and experimental identification of interrelations between the parameters of the technical condition of a car with an electric power plant and the main parameters of its functioning are presented. The revealed patterns made it possible to develop a method of functional diagnostics of cars with an electric power plant based on the use of a diagnostic matrix. The developed method of functional diagnostics is implemented by measuring and then comparing with the normative values of the main parameters of the functioning of a car with an electric power plant when monitoring its technical condition on a stand with running drums. A control algorithm is proposed that allows implementing the developed method of functional diagnostics.
 Purpose – development of a method of functional diagnostics of cars with an electric power plant on stands with running drums.
 Methods or methodologies of research – a numerical method based on the finite-difference scheme of the Park method, using a special numerical-iterative method of composing equations of motion; full-scale experimental research.
 Results – a method of functional diagnostics of cars with an electric power plant on stands with running drums has been developed, which, based on the revealed dependencies of the parameters characterizing the traction and dynamic properties of cars with electric power plants on the parameters of the technical condition of their units and systems, is carried out using the developed algorithm and diagnostic matrix allows quantitative control of the technical condition of cars with electric power installation, their power units and systems during the operation of cars with an electric power plant on stands with running drums and is implemented on the developed bench equipment.
 Practical implications. The results obtained in the form of the developed method and the equipment implementing it are advisable to apply when monitoring the technical condition and diagnostics of cars with an electric power plant at service stations, testing at manufacturing plants.

Tuning of Two Sub-Mounts in Mass-Block Integrated Mount Module over Self-Excitation and Basement Input

If an unexpected vibration or force is expected to be generated during operation, a vibration mount must be installed beneath the support system. A mass-block can be considered to reduce the structure basement fundamental frequency of the basement. Thus, the efficiency of a single-mount or mass-block can be enhanced by implementing a single-mount module called a mass-block integrated mount module (MIMM). This study addressed the tuning process of multiple mount modules in a supported system by evaluating the mount module using the proposed total performance index, building on a previous evaluation method comprising the first and second performance indices. This index was subsequently applied to assess the control capability of MIMM concerning both the self-excitation of an electric power plant and basement input. The extended 3-degrees-of-freedom (3-d.o.f.) electric power generator model was applied to determine the best selection of the mechanical properties for the MIMM over the various mechanical parameter settings (ranging between 10 and 1000% of the original parameters) of the two sub-mounts. The simulation results demonstrate a reduction in the total performance index from 8.2, as calculated in a previous study, to 0.2. The novelty of the optimal MIMM conditions is confirmed by the simultaneous enhancement of both performance indices.

Energy, Exergy, and Emissions Analyses of Internal Combustion Engines and Battery Electric Vehicles for the Brazilian Energy Mix

Exergy is a thermodynamic concept that ponders the quality of energy. It evaluates the irreversibilities of a machine, demonstrating its capacity to perform work associated with energy conversion. This article focuses on directing public policies and vehicle development toward their most proper usage worldwide. In the urban mobility scenario, there is an obvious demand to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In addition, the internal combustion engine (ICE) experiences considerable energy losses through heat exchange through the radiator and exhaust flow gases, which are not considerable in battery electric vehicles (BEVs) since there are no exhaust gases subsequent to combustion, nor combustion itself. This work presents longitudinal dynamics simulations of passenger vehicles to understand the magnitude of exergy destruction in ICEVs and BEVs, considering the Brazilian and European Union electric energy mix. Overall, the method can be applied to any other country. The simulation and model parameters were configured to match production road vehicles commercialized in the Brazilian market based on different versions of the same model. Two vehicle dynamic duty cycles were used, one relating to urban usage and another to highway usage, resulting in an overall exergy efficiency of around 50–51% for BEVs considering the exergy destruction in power plants. In contrast, ICE has an average efficiency of 20% in the urban cycle and around 30% in the highway cycle. By comparing the overall equivalent CO2 emissions, it is possible to conclude that EVs in the European energy matrix produce more GHG than ICE vehicles running on ethanol in Brazil. Nevertheless, there are increasing uses of coal, natural gas, and oil thermal electric power plants, raising the question of how the transition may occur with a general increase in electrification since there is an increasing electric expenditure in all sectors of society, and the renewable energy plants may not meet all of the demand.

Analysing Effective and Ineffective Impacts of Maintenance Strategies on Electric Power Plants: A Comprehensive Approach

The maintenance strategy used in an electric power plant plays a crucial role in its overall performance and operational efficiency. An effective maintenance strategy describes the approach to exploiting various forms of maintenance (corrective, preventive, predictive, proactive, etc.) in an electric power plant. In this paper, the effective and ineffective impacts of maintenance strategies on power plants were examined. Also, the distinction between corrective, preventive, and aggressive maintenance was considered. In terms of effective impacts, a well-designed and executed maintenance strategy enhances the reliability and availability of the electric power plant by minimising unplanned downtime. It extends the lifespan of critical equipment, improves safety measures, increases energy efficiency, and contributes to long-term cost savings. However, in terms of ineffective impacts, poorly planned or executed maintenance strategies can result in increased downtime, higher repair costs, safety risks, decreased efficiency, and regulatory compliance issues. Neglecting maintenance can lead to equipment failures, reduced productivity, and potential environmental incidents.

Rapidly Direct Laser 3D Printing of High-Performance Protonic Ceramic Fuel Cells

Fuel cells with a dense ionic conducting electrolyte layer sandwiched between two porous electrode layers are one of the most efficient fuel-to-electricity energy conversion devices. Their reversible operation can also efficiently electrolyze water to hydrogen, reduce carbon dioxide to fuels, synthesize ammonia, upgrade fuels, and store energy on large scales. Compared with the popular low-temperature (~80 oC) proton exchange/polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells and the high-temperature (700-1000 oC) oxygen ion-conducting solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), initially used in electric vehicles, auxiliary powers, power plants, and hydrogen electrolyzers, the rising star of protonic ceramic fuel cells (PCFCs) based on proton conducting oxide electrolytes offers excellent suitability for operating at 400-700 oC, the optimum temperature range for electrochemical energy devices, enabling extensive superiorities (high efficiency and performance, long thermal and chemical stabilities, flexible fuels, and cost-effective compatible materials) compared to their counterparts. In recent ten years, many high-performance PCFCs have been reported. However, most performances were achieved using small-area button cells (<0.5cm2) fabricated using spin coating, drop coating, manual brushing, and screen printing of electrolytes on the dry-pressed anode supports, followed by co-firing. There are challenges to transferring the excellent microstructures and materials chemistries/properties obtained from small-area cells to large-area cells and stacks. Furthermore, the decrease in cell component layer thickness for high volumetric cell performance and the requirement for more efficient, faster, and more cost-effective manufacturing motivated the advanced manufacturing of PCFCs.This work will focus on the direct laser 3D printing (DL3DP) of PCFCs performed at Clemson University. The DL3DP integrated 3D printing (microextrusion and ultrasonic spraying) and laser processing (drying, sintering, and machining), allowing for manufacturing PCFC components, single cells, and stacks with the desired microstructures and geometries irrelevant to the area. The DL3DP could rapidly and cost-effectively manufacture PCFCs without conventional long-term furnace processing. The processing speed could be 2 orders of magnitude faster than the conventional tape-casting and furnace co-firing method. The achieved cells and stacks showed excellent fuel cell performance and less dependence on the effective area. The cells showed peak power densities 1.6-2.6 times that of the conventionally processed samples. The stacks demonstrated a peak power of 7 W and constant power outputs of 0.5-3.1 W for 110-260 hours. This DL3DP can be expanded to manufacturing other heterogeneous ceramics for energy conversion and storage devices. Figure 1

A simulation model for the electrical rotary-wing aircraft (eVTOL) performance estimation for the urban air mobility purposes

The present paper presents a simulation model description developed for the aircraft performance estimation of the most popular electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL) aerodynamic configurations with the electric (hybrid) power plant for the urban air mobility purposes. It focuses on the quadcopter-type eVTOL aircraft aerodynamic configurations using the unshrouded-propellers or ducted fans driven by electric motors. The aircraft performance analysis for aerodynamic configurations of the quadcopter and tilt rotor-quadcopters with the tilt rotors and wing with the all-electric (EP) or hybrid power plant (HP) is given. To compare aircraft performance, the estimation results for a conventional single-rotor helicopter with EP or HP are given. Based on the numerical solution equation of the aircraft existence, feasible structural components mass distributions for various types of eVTOL configurations were obtained. eVTOL aircraft performance, including the estimation of apparent and drag power for the airspeed range, from hovering to the maximum airspeed, as well as for the transition modes (tilt rotor aircraft and quadcopters) were estimated. The eVTOL aircraft flight range and duration with EP and HP at the straight and level flight mode were calculated. Specific mass characteristics of EP and HP components (batteries, generators, electric motors, etc.) to ensure acceptable eVTOL aircraft performance were identified. A comparative evaluation of considered eVTOL configurations for the purpose of their efficiency was performed. Aerodynamic calculations were carried out based on the known analytical techniques of the lifting propeller momentum theory with the data correction capability according to test results. The simulation model, obtained in this paper, can be considered in the phase of the preliminary choice as the first approach of structural parameters and aerodynamic configurations of prospective electric (hybrid) eVTOLs designed for the use as an urban air taxi.

ВДОСКОНАЛЕНА МАТЕМАТИЧНА МОДЕЛЬ ТРИОБМОТКОВОЇ АСИНХРОННОЇ МАШИНИ

In phase coordinates, a mathematical model of a three-winding asynchronous machine with two windings on the stator as a structural element of electric drives and asynchronous generators with inverter and inverter-capacitor excitation for autonomous electric power plants, oriented to explicit methods of numerical integration of the system of differential equations, has been developed. The model takes into account the displacement angle between two stator windings in the range of 360º and other important factors affecting the course of electromagnetic processes occurring in the machine. On the basis of the mathematical model, a program code was developed as a means of computer verification of machine operation modes. The results of computer study performed with the help of the code confirm the suitability of the mathematical model of a three-winding asynchronous machine to take into account the influence of the displacement angle between the stator windings and their simultaneous and single power supply during the operation of the machine in motor mode. References 11, figures 10.

Techno-economic optimization of hybrid-electric power plants onboard cruise ships

This work aims at assessing energy, environmental and economic performances of hybrid-electric plants installed onboard large-size cruise vessels fuelled by Liquefied Natural Gas. Specifically, hybrid-electric power plants coupling combined gas electric and steam plants, reciprocating engines and lithium-ion battery pack are considered. By adopting cogeneration efficiency, carbon dioxide emissions, nitrogen oxide emissions and costs as objective functions, optimal performances were assessed by a Mixed Integer Linear Programming code, following a two-step procedure. First, the MILP code has been applied considering 8-days long, phase-mean operating profiles to identify an optimal design of the engine room. Second, power plant performances have been investigated by applying MILP code to hourly demand profiles, in order to provide more detailed insight on working schedule. Overall, as main outcome of the phase-mean analysis, the potential of combined gas electric and steam plants and lithium-ion batteries in promoting a more efficient energy utilization, reduced environmental impact and enhanced cost savings is proved. Specifically, combined gas electric and steam plant was shown to optimize objective functions during navigation and maneuvering, whereas batteries improved energy and environmental performances in the most demanding ship operating conditions. Furthermore, optimal sizing of lithium-ion battery pack was determined at 40 MWh, despite its economic competitiveness resulted to deeply rely on carbon tax. On the other hand, the hourly analysis showed that controlling the combined gas electric and steam plant and batteries according to a mixed spinning reserve-peak shaving strategy optimizes the performance of power plant even in port conditions, with almost no role played by reciprocating engines. In detail, in comparison to a reference non-hybrid electric power plant, batteries are shown to improve cogeneration efficiency and greenhouse gas emission savings by nearly 2%, whereas nitrogen oxide emissions and costs were reduced by 12% and 2%, respectively.

Climate impact on combined cycle thermoelectric power plant in hot and humid regions

Thermoelectric power plants have been designed to operate in ISO conditions, similar to the temperate climatic conditions of the northern hemisphere. Thus, some equipment used in tropical regions operated outside the ideal conditions, with high relative humidity and ambient temperature. This ends up impairing its efficiency and maximum generation. This paper presents the analysis of 2020 and 2021 hourly electric generation and climatic conditions data for 2020 from the gas based combined cycle Cuiabá Thermoelectric Power Plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, center-west region of Brazil. The main objective is to present and discuss the correlations between meteorological conditions and power generation in the plant. Results show a strong correlation between generation and the wet bulb temperature. They also show that high wind speeds, increase thermal losses and the efficiency of the steam cycle. This paper shows that thermal electric power plants are particularly sensitive to climate conditions in hot and humid regions.

Design of an energy management system applied to an electric power plant based on a biomass gasifier

Biomass gasification plants for electricity generation are an environmentally friendly technology. One of their main problems is their poor responsiveness to load variations when the plant operates off-grid. For this reason, they are usually grid-connected systems.Therefore, as a solution, an energy management system that allows the plant to operate off-grid is proposed. The system has been obtained through the optimal design of unidirectional and bidirectional Z-source converters and their coupling with their series outputs. This approach has been applied to a biomass gasification power plant.To validate the system, the results of an experimental 10 kW gasification plant are presented. With the plant working off-grid, there is a sudden load increase of 2.5 kW, and due to the proposed system performance, there is only an output voltage oscillation of less than 1%, preserving a stable power supply.This proposed system allows the plant to work isolated or coupled to a weak micro-grid of renewable energies. Obtaining a permanent supply of quality and also improving its efficiency. Thus, the gasification technology can be used for electricity generation in isolated areas of many developing countries, where the electrical grid is not totally developed, but there are available biomass sources.

Effect of chemical composition of coal ash used to prepare granulated coal ash on the removal of hydrogen sulfide from water.

Granulated coal ash was prepared by mixing coal ash derived from a coal electric power plant and blast furnace cement, to remove hydrogen sulfide from aquatic environment. In this study, we investigate the effects of the composition of the coal ash used to prepare the granulated coal ash on its hydrogen sulfide removal performance. Manganese, magnesium, and calcium contents in the granulated coal ash were found to be the major factors in controlling the rate of hydrogen sulfide removal. The kinetics of hydrogen sulfide removal by the granulated coal ash were expressed as a first-order equation with a rate constant of 0.0081- 0.080 h-1 . The rate constant for hydrogen sulfide removal obtained in this study corelated well with the manganese content in the granulated coal ash. The increasing surface pH attributed to the hydrolysis of calcium and magnesium on the surface of the granulated coal ash slightly increased the hydrogen sulfide removal rate.

Investigation of the Change of Electric Energy Generation Sources in Turkey by Statistical Methods

It is among the most important regions of the development enclosures of the electrical energy state. It is an important economic indicator for countries, as well as a combination of the development indicator, how the clothes are made. Because how much electricity is produced from which source, how efficiently this production efficiency is used gives serious direction to school economic policies. From this situation, it summarizes how the electrical energy produced in Turkey between the years 2011-2020 has changed on a yearly basis, what the production values are and what share it has in the total production from these sources. Ensuring the results achieved, except for the year 2019. In all other years the electric power plant has always been a series compared to the previous year. In addition, from 2011 to 2017, electricity generation from natural gas was always the leader, while after 2017 this situation was caused by coal.

Designing guiding device of suspension made of aluminum alloys for multi-purpose driverless vehicle using topological optimization method

Introduction (problem statement and relevance). Currently, mobile driverless transport and technological means are widely used for automation of work processes and remote control over a vehicle, excluding immediate human attendance in dangerous areas. Generally, such vehicles feature an electric powerplant while using batteries as energy storage devices. In order to reduce the number of operations during such vehicle driving, it is convenient to use a running gear design that is symmetric relative to its longitudinal and transverse planes. Reducing energy consumption will allow increasing in energy efficiency when performing transport and other technological operations. One of the ways to improve energy efficiency is to reduce the weight of elements of such vehicles. This can be achieved by using materials with high specific strength, such as aluminum alloys, and by developing optimum loading patterns for such element structures. The object of the study is a driverless 4x4 vehicle with the fully loaded weight of 830 kg. The research subject is the methods of optimum designing of vehicle load-bearing structures and their use taking into account the operating conditions. The purpose of the study is to develop the methodology for designing suspension elements for a vehicle with a symmetric design of the running gear made of aluminum alloy taking into account the loading modes.Methodology and research methods. The paper presents a dynamic mathematical model of the wheeled vehicle for determination of loads created in a program for rigid bodies dynamics modeling, the methodology for bringing the loads to one suspension unit (front left wheel), loading patterns for suspension elements obtained with the use of topological optimization and strength calculations performed with application of the finite element method confirming the design functionality.Scientific novelty and results. The paper presents the method for bringing the loads obtained for all suspension elements to the front left point, since the driverless vehicle has a symmetrical running gear design. Taking this into account, a rigid-body dynamic model and an algorithm for processing the obtained loads for a finite element model were developed. Also, typical modes of vehicle loading were selected. The loads were distributed among the following types: operational, extreme and emergency ones. Recommendations were given for the choice of restrictions when conducting topological optimization depending on the mode type. As a result, loading patterns for suspension guiding device elements were obtained. Check calculations were carried out to confirm the design functionality.Practical significance. The obtained results can be used in development of highly loaded elements of wheeled vehicles.

Failures causes analysis of grid-tie photovoltaic inverters based on faults signatures analysis (FCA-B-FSA)

Nowadays, most countries convert conventional electricity power plants to green power generation to limit CO2 emissions and mitigate global warming. Hence, renewable energy sources play a significant role, and Mega-scale Photovoltaic (PV) power plants are widely constructed to use free green solar energy as one of the best practices for using renewable energy sources. The central inverter is considered the most important core equipment in the Mega-scale PV power plant which suffers from several partial and total failures. This paper introduces a new methodology for Failure Causes Analysis (FCA) of grid-connected inverters based on the Faults Signatures Analysis (FSA). Hence, this methodology is called Failure Causes Analysis Based Fault Signature Analysis (FCA-B-FSA). The objective is to link the Fault’s Signatures (FSs) and the correlated Root Causes (RCs). To achieve this objective, this paper discusses many directions starting with reviewing the inverters’ FCA which was investigated in previous publications. As the previous studies of the inverters FCA are limited, this paper focuses on statistical gathering for the FSs of the grid-tie PV inverters and the egalitarian inverters. Then, the investigated work in this paper presents a proposed methodology to link the FSs to the correlated RCs. The investigation outcomes briefly present a proposed validation plan to be considered for FCA-B-FSA of a real incident of a grid-tie PV inverter as a future work.

How Putin's Cyberwar Failed in Ukraine

As Russian military forces surged across the Ukrainian border in February 2022, cybersecurity analysts shared predictions about the ways in which the Russian government would use cyberattacks to thwart Ukrainian defenses. Some government agencies and private sector organizations forecast that the Russians would launch a blitz of devastating electronic attacks against Ukrainian critical infrastructure targets, such as electrical power plants and air traffic control networks, crippling the country. While Russian cyberattacks have played a role in the conflict, their effects to date have been significantly less than what some analysts anticipated. But why? This article examines how analysts’ most extreme predictions about Russia’s use of cyberattacks in Ukraine missed the mark, links these findings to the literatures on military and intelligence forecasting, and offers recommendations for additional research.