Electrification In Sub-Saharan Africa Research Articles

The cost of electrifying all households in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries by 2030

Electrifying sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) requires major investments and policy intervention. Existing analyses focus on the levelized cost of electricity at aggregate levels, leaving the feasibility and affordability of reaching Sustainable Development Goal #7 – access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all – by country unclear. Here, we use the electrification model OnSSET to estimate granular and spatially explicit levelized costs of electricity and costs per person per day (pp/d) for 40 countries in SSA. We find that solar-powered mini-grids and standalone systems drastically lower the cost of electrifying remote and high-cost areas, particularly for lower tiers of electrification. On average, least-cost electrification in SSA at Tier 3 (ca. 365 kWh/household/year), can be provided at 14c USD/kWh or 7c USD pp/d. These results are sensitive to demand assumptions, for example, misguided electrification planning or oversizing due to overestimated demand can lead to substantial cost increases. Our results highlight large variances within countries, which we propose to visualise using electrification cost curves by country. Policymakers should consider such cost curves and use a tailored approach by country and region to reach SDG7 in SSA.

What's new in the drivers of electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa?

This study examines the drivers of electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa in 48 chosen countries from 1995 to 2019, accounting for endogeneity of variables using a new novel xtdpdgmm command that implements two-step system GMM (Generalized Method of Moment) estimators. The findings show that in sub-Saharan Africa, domestic credit to the private sector and the food production index are the two most important factors influencing access to electricity. Domestic credits to the private sector and food production are statistically significant and have a positive impact on increasing regional electricity access. Thus, having access to credit from financial institutions is crucial for many households in order to have access to electricity. The result reveals that agricultural productivity improves food security by increasing access to electricity. Our study recommends that governments in sub-Saharan Africa should boost agricultural production and provide a favorable environment for the banking sector and other microcredit institutions to finance electrification initiatives. In order to improve the region's access to electricity, financial institutions, governments, and donor funding should be encouraged to finance small-scale renewable energy projects. Thus, to lower the cost of electrification in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing off-grid financing should be prioritized. These findings have significant implications for sub-Saharan Africa and other developing countries.

Does financial development improve access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa?

Does financial development improve access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa?

New frontiers of electricity capital: energy access in sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT While recent years have seen the rapid growth of off-grid solar power, ten per cent of the world’s population, the majority in sub-Saharan Africa, still lack access to electricity. Meanwhile, standalone solar home systems using pay as you go (PAYGO) mobile money have been proposed as a key solution to meeting the target of universal access to energy under Sustainable Development Goal 7. These systems are being deployed in various regions of the global South, including East Africa and to a lesser extent West Africa. I investigate how through PAYGO, off-grid solar electricity in sub-Saharan Africa is being transformed into a cash flow, a financial asset and a conduit for consumer debt. In so doing I analyse evolving relationships between some of the key actors and institutions involved in this process, including mobile banking platforms such as M-Pesa, ‘next generation utilities’ such as M-KOPA and BBOXX, and powerful mobile network operators such as Safaricom and MTN. Theoretically I conceptualise energy access as a new frontier of ‘electricity capital’, a developing field from political economy and energy geography, which is concerned with the way in which technological developments in the electricity sector are reconfiguring relationships between different institutions of the state, industry, finance, and users.

Latent demand for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa: a review

Abstract Universal access to electricity is an essential part of sub-Saharan Africa’s path to development. With the United Nations setting Goal 7 of its sustainable development goals to be universal access to clean, reliable and affordable electricity, substantial research efforts have been made to optimize electricity supply based on projected demand in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our study reviews the literature on electricity demand, with a specific focus on latent demand (i.e., electricity demand that would exist if the necessary techno-economic conditions were met) in SSA. We found that out of 57 electricity demand papers reviewed, only 3 (5%) incorporated latent demand in their electricity demand projections. Furthermore, majority of the literature on electricity consumption and demand estimation in SSA use econometric models to identify determinants of electricity consumption and project future demand. We find that population density, urbanization, household income, electricity price, market value of crops and availability of natural resources to be significant determinants of electricity consumption in SSA. We conclude the review by proposing a methodology, and providing an initial proof of concept, for more accurately projecting latent demand in sub-Saharan Africa. Incorporating latent demand in electrification models would help inform energy sector stakeholders (e.g., investors and policymakers) about which sectors and geographic locations hold potential for wealth creation via electricity access.

Impact of official development assistance projects for renewable energy on electrification in sub-Saharan Africa

While the African continent has one of the largest renewable energy potentials in the world, it remains the most deprived region for access to electricity. Official development agencies can provide the funds and experience necessary for the sustainable development of this sector to those countries that suffer from limited domestic resources. We estimate the impact of renewable energy aid projects implemented in 19 sub-Saharan African countries on access to electricity for communities in the region. By combining georeferenced data from aid projects in renewable energy from AidData and survey data from the Afrobarometer, we find, using different propensity score matching methods, a positive and significant impact of these projects on electrification of communities. A comparison with the same sample on non-renewable energy projects shows a better efficiency of eco-friendly projects. However, the effectiveness of these projects is heterogeneous and depends greatly on the type of donor, the location, and the initial level of development. Our results contribute to the scholarly debate on aid effectiveness and provide important political implications. Indeed, they suggest that international donors should favour sending funds for renewable energy projects in countries and regions lacking electrification as these funds contribute to better access to electricity while promoting environmentally friendly technologies.

Evaluating the Impacts of Minigrid Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa

Evaluating the Impacts of Minigrid Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa

Feasibility of PV-Based Islanded Microgrids for Affordable Electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Feasibility of PV-Based Islanded Microgrids for Affordable Electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Role of Political Economy in Energy Access: Public and Private Off-Grid Electrification in Tanzania

Off-grid renewable energy sources are dramatically altering the energy landscape in countries with low energy access. While techno-economic perspectives are already widely discussed, the political economy is largely ignored, particularly regarding the institutions providing electricity. Two of many ways that the task of electrification can be framed are: (1) as the duty of the government to provide a basic service to its people, or (2) as a goods that can be purchased from private players in a market system. Electrification in our country of focus, Tanzania, has developed a promising off-grid market as an increasing number of private players have recently become active there. While grid extension is still a priority for the government, solar home systems, which are estimated to make up more than half of all new connections by 2030, get surprisingly less attention in terms of coordination, political support, and policy frameworks. This is despite the fact that the population is highly dispersed, making grid extension less suitable and more expensive than off-grid, decentralized systems. After an extensive literature review, our method applies a theory-embedded framework of institutional economics to the use of solar home systems for electrification in Tanzania and examines the realizations of the electricity provided. The framework defines key political economy criteria as drivers for energy access and evaluates their respective relevance. We then apply this framework to evaluate 20 selected projects, which have promoted solar home systems in rural off-grid areas in Tanzania since 2000. As a unique contribution to the literature, this research highlights the underappreciated influence of different institutional arrangements on the political economy landscape and on the electricity provided for rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa.

Population cluster data to assess the urban-rural split and electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa

Human settlements are usually nucleated around manmade central points or distinctive natural features, forming clusters that vary in shape and size. However, population distribution in geo-sciences is often represented in the form of pixelated rasters. Rasters indicate population density at predefined spatial resolutions, but are unable to capture the actual shape or size of settlements. Here we suggest a methodology that translates high-resolution raster population data into vector-based population clusters. We use open-source data and develop an open-access algorithm tailored for low and middle-income countries with data scarcity issues. Each cluster includes unique characteristics indicating population, electrification rate and urban-rural categorization. Results are validated against national electrification rates provided by the World Bank and data from selected Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). We find that our modeled national electrification rates are consistent with the rates reported by the World Bank, while the modeled urban/rural classification has 88% accuracy. By delineating settlements, this dataset can complement existing raster population data in studies such as energy planning, urban planning and disease response.

Design of a Photovoltaic Mini-Grid System for Rural Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper presents a detailed design of a photovoltaic (PV) system for use in the rural electrification of remote settlements that are far off from the electricity grid. Since investment in building transmission lines from the grid to these localities is not viable, a good solution is an installation in these areas of standalone photovoltaic systems. The design process comprises the choice and dimensioning of the solar panels, the battery storage, DC-AC inverter, and mini transmission grid to the different homes. The design is for a 15 kW PV system including an economic evaluation and analysis using Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Energy Resources (HOMER) software. Data on the average monthly solar radiation and temperature were obtained from various sources, including, Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS) for Africa. From this data the study area receives a monthly average solar insolation of 6.16 kWh/m2/day with the worst month being August with 5.22 kWh/m2/day. The total daily electrical energy consumption is estimated to be about 72.525 kWh. Simulation results using HOMER software shows that the overall capital cost of the PV system components is $122,337, a replacement cost of $12,889 and an operation and maintenance cost of $29,946 over 10years. A financial analysis of the system showed that the design was both viable and sustainable with low maintenance cost.

Mini-Grids for the Sustainable Electrification of Rural Areas in Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessing the Potential of KeyMaker Models

Solar hybrid mini-grid systems possess the potential to substantially support electrification in sub-Saharan Africa. While their technical reliability has been proven, their financial viability is achieved only by heavy subsidization as of now. Due to the growing importance of results-based financing, we ask whether newly developed business models leveraging on the value added of electricity supply in rural areas (such as the KeyMaker Model) bare the potential to substantially reduce amount of grants required to finance the initial capital investment and thus contribute to a sustainable form of development. The principle of the KeyMaker Model is based on utilizing the locally supplied mini-grid electricity to establish a local agro-processing project, the revenues of which are an additional income stream for the mini-grid operator, while the project creates an end-market for the local farmers to sell their produce. We have developed two scenarios (without and with KeyMaker Model) for four rural villages in Nigeria as a case study to scientifically assess the potential of KeyMaker Models. We simulated and optimized the mini-grid systems using the software tool HOMER. We then assessed their financial viability. Our analysis demonstrates grant finance requirements ranging from 82% to 99% of the total investment for the base-case mini-grid projects without consideration of the KeyMaker Model. We find that a well-selected KeyMaker Model such as cocoa bean processing reduced the grant requirement by 68 percentage points, while processes based on maize, palm oil and cassava processing achieved reductions of 36, 26 and 8 percentage points, respectively. Hence, we conclude that the value added by the introduction of new local business models bares the potential to reduce grant requirements for the socially and economically necessary electrification across the Global South.

When complexity turns into local prosperity: A system dynamics approach to meeting the challenges of the rural electricity-development nexus

The rural electrification-based literature reports a limited modelling knowledge concerning the long-term dynamics of the nexus between electricity access and local development in rural areas of developing countries. This can hinder the achievement of the Agenda 2030 goals related to sustainable access to electricity for all. In order to overcome this literature gap and support the implementation of sustainable long-term rural electrification programmes, this paper builds upon the research on a system dynamics model on the local dimension of the electricity-development nexus developed by the authors by testing it and deriving useful guidelines for supporting future electrification actions in sub-Saharan Africa. All the steps are based on a real case-study as reference, i.e. a hydroelectric-based electrification programme implemented in the rural community of Ikondo, Tanzania, in 2005 by the Italian NGO named CEFA Onlus. The results of the model testing lead to a novel quantitative assessment of the most relevant dynamics affecting the local electricity-development nexus, and it provides a novel discussion on model results when its inputs take on different values, until the extreme ones, and as if the model were tested for different contexts than Ikondo. Policy testing is also performed for exploring model behaviour when subjected to different polices and exogenous decision-making processes. It provides a list of complementary activities to couple with electrification programmes for enhancing their positive impact on rural communities. These results can support the definition of useful guidelines and best practices for rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa, and they advocate an updating of the traditional monitoring and evaluation frameworks commonly used for assessing energy access projects.

Optimal Sizing and Techno-Economic Analysis of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems—A Case Study of a Photovoltaic/Wind/Battery/Diesel System in Fanisau, Northern Nigeria

Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HRESs) have been touted as an appropriate way for supplying electricity to remote and off-grid areas in developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where rural electrification challenges are the most pronounced. This study proposes a two-step methodology for optimizing and analyzing a stand-alone photovoltaic/wind/battery/diesel hybrid system to meet the electricity needs of Fanisua, an off-grid and remote village of northern Nigeria. In the first step, the MATLAB environment was used to run simulations and optimize the system via the genetic algorithm. Then, techno-economic and emissions analysis was carried out in the second step to compare the proposed system to the existing traditional modes of rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa, namely, the grid-extension and diesel generator. The break-even distance parameter was adopted in the comparison with grid-extension. Besides, the hypothetical project of replacing the diesel generator by the optimal system was analyzed using the Simple Payback Period (SPP) and Net Present Value (NPV) parameters. The resulting optimal design architecture included an 89.271-kW photovoltaic array, a 100.31-W diesel generator, and 148 batteries with a total annualized cost (TAC) and cost of energy (COE) of USD 43,807 and USD 0.25/kWh, respectively. The break-even distance found was 16.2 km, while the NPV and SPP of the hypothetical project were USD 572,382 and 2.8 years, respectively. The savings in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the proposed system compared to the grid extension and the diesel generator were found to be 85,401.08 kg/year and 122,062.85 kg/year, respectively. This study highlighted the role that solar PV-based HRESs could play in the sustainable electricity supply in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa.

Satellite Observations Reveal Inequalities in the Progress and Effectiveness of Recent Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa

Summary Ending energy poverty is a necessary condition for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Boosting electricity access levels is, however, insufficient if consumption and reliability indicators stagnate. Previous research has shown that satellite-derived data can complement field surveys in tracking energy poverty but with little consideration for the multi-dimensionality of energy access and the role of demographic dynamics. Here, we process 6 years of high-resolution population, nighttime light, and settlement data for sub-Saharan Africa to derive multi-dimensional estimates of electricity access. Our results, validated against a range of sources, confirm a recent surge in electrification such that >115 million people gained access over the 2014–2019 period. Yet, they reveal wide inequalities in the quality of electrification, which cannot be observed in the existing statistics. The pace of electrification must more than triple to fulfill SDG 7.1.1 by 2030. Efforts could fall short if aimed solely at boosting numbers of national electricity connections.

Leveraging Blockchain Technology for Secure Energy Trading and Least-Cost Evaluation of Decentralized Contributions to Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The International Energy Agency has projected that the total energy demand for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to rise by an average of 4% per year up to 2040. It implies that ~620 million people are living without electricity in SSA. Going with the 2030 vision of the United Nations that electricity should be accessible to all, it is important that new technology and methods are provided. In comparison to other nations worldwide, smart grid (SG) is an emerging technology in SSA. SG is an information technology-enhanced power grid, which provides a two-way communication network between energy producers and customers. Also, it includes renewable energy, smart meters, and smart devices that help to manage energy demands and reduce energy generation costs. However, SG is facing inherent difficulties, such as energy theft, lack of trust, security, and privacy issues. Therefore, this paper proposes a blockchain-based decentralized energy system (BDES) to accelerate rural and urban electrification by improving service delivery while minimizing the cost of generation and addressing historical antipathy and cybersecurity risk within SSA. Additionally, energy insufficiency and fixed pricing schemes may raise concerns in SG, such as the imbalance of order. The paper also introduces a blockchain-based energy trading system, which includes price negotiation and incentive mechanisms to address the imbalance of order. Moreover, existing models for energy planning do not consider the effect of fill rate (FR) and service level (SL). A blockchain levelized cost of energy (BLCOE) is proposed as the least-cost solution that measures the impact of energy reliability on generation cost using FR and SL. Simulation results are presented to show the performance of the proposed model and the least-cost option varies with relative energy generation cost of centralized, decentralized and BDES infrastructure. Case studies of Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Liberia, Mali, and Senegal illustrate situations that are more suitable for BDES. For other SSA countries, BDES can cost-effectively service a large population and regions. Additionally, BLCOE reduces energy costs by approximately 95% for battery and 75% for the solar modules. The future BLCOE varies across SSA on an average of about 0.049 $/kWh as compared to 0.15 $/kWh of an existing system in the literature.

Modelling and management of smart microgrid for rural electrification in sub-saharan Africa: The case of Nigeria

Access to electricity is still a challenge in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. In Nigeria, over 70% of the rural dwellers do not have access to electricity. The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential of a smart microgrid for off-grid rural electrification in Nigeria. A combination of design thinking and model-based design methodology is employed to select a suitable microgrid configuration and to develop a smart microgrid model. A system consisting of a solar photovoltaic array, battery energy storage and a diesel generator is selected, and the model is developed in Simulink. Demand data from 10 rural communities in Nigeria are used to validate the performance of the model and the potential for demand management is considered. The use of energy efficient light bulbs is found to reduce the peak electricity demand of the case study communities by 42 to 76%. Combining the proposed system with the use of LED bulbs makes the system to have 56 to 81% less net present cost than a system with a diesel generator alone and incandescent light bulbs. The proposed smart microgrid is found to be more suitable for off-grid rural electrification in Nigeria than diesel generators which are currently used for off-grid electrification in Nigeria.

Renewable Energy Sources for the Present and Future: An Alternative Power Supply for Nigeria

It is estimated that at least 600 million people in Africa lack access to electricity and three out of five people don’t have access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Though Africa is rich in a wide range of energy resources including solar, bio, natural gas, oil, coal and Uranium, the continent is far from energy self-sufficiency. Addressing climate change will require deep and quick reductions in fossil fuel use so that the systems developed around producing, transporting, and consuming energy are decarbonized by the middle of the century. In the ongoing age, sustainable power source has taken another swing to limelight on the planet, particularly in developed and emerging nations, as it assumes a noteworthy part both in economy and the general job of the world. Significantly, Nigeria an oil-rich country, comes as no surprise that almost all of her energy consumption comes from non-renewable energy sources as coal, natural gas and oil, and as such it is highly vulnerable to shocks due to overdependence on the fossil sources; often time is controlled by the international market. On the whole, the fossil fuel is expected to span only but a millennium (1700-2700) of human civilization while the imperative of an energy shortage situation is felt in every sector of the country considering the poor electricity consumptions in the country, which has reflected on the country’s economy and productivity rate. In revamping the economic sectors in Nigeria, the need for an alternative energy sources that is augmentable in supply keeping in view sustainable development as the hallmark for all sector development. Thus far, Nigeria ought to likewise be opened to universal investments as this would help support the improvement of its assets. This paper, therefore, supports no other sources but renewable energy in promoting the countries productivity at all segments. It further stressed on the implementation of the country’s Renewable Energy Master Plan (REMP) to meet global competitors by the year 2030. Similarly, senior political figures, policymakers and CEOs should engage in a policy dialogue by identifying unique opportunities and best practices for developing and investing in Nigeria and in Africa’s energy markets for “…without this energy supply, the sophisticated skills of the industrial world are merely a burden in the struggle for survival.”

A high-resolution gridded dataset to assess electrification in sub-Saharan Africa

Spatially explicit data on electricity access and use are essential for effective policy-making and infrastructure planning in low-income, data-scarce regions. We present and validate a 1-km resolution electricity access dataset covering sub-Saharan Africa built on gridded nighttime light, population, and land cover data. Using light radiance probability distributions, we define electricity consumption tiers for urban and rural areas and estimate the by-tier split of consumers living in electrified areas. The approach provides new insight into the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of electricity access, and a measure of its quality beyond binary access. We find our estimates to be broadly consistent with recently published province- and national-level statistics. Moreover, we demonstrate consistency between the estimated electricity access quality indicators and survey-based consumption levels defined in accordance with the World Bank Multi-Tier Framework. The dataset is readily reproduced and updated using an open-access scientific computing framework. The data and approach can be applied for improving the assessment of least-cost electrification options, and examining links between electricity access and other sustainable development objectives.

Multinational Enterprises and the Provision of Collective Goods in Developing Countries under Formal and Informal Institutional Voids. The Case of Electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Despite their unprecedented growth, developing countries still face severe problems in the provision of collective goods. Electricity, whose provision is scarce or unreliable in most developing regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, is an emblematic case. The reason for this shortage is not only imputable to the lack of effective formal institutions, but also to the inefficacy of informal institutions in enabling alternative solutions for the production, transmission and distribution of electricity. We claim that in this context of “double institutional void”, foreign direct investment (FDI) and multinational enterprises (MNEs) can play a decisive role. However, their effectiveness depends on both the formal and informal institutional proximity between the home and the host countries. Our empirical analysis relies on panel data models run on a sample of pairs of home-host countries, the latter of which are all from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), observed from 2005 to 2011.