When complexity turns into local prosperity: A system dynamics approach to meeting the challenges of the rural electricity-development nexus

Abstract

The rural electrification-based literature reports a limited modelling knowledge concerning the long-term dynamics of the nexus between electricity access and local development in rural areas of developing countries. This can hinder the achievement of the Agenda 2030 goals related to sustainable access to electricity for all. In order to overcome this literature gap and support the implementation of sustainable long-term rural electrification programmes, this paper builds upon the research on a system dynamics model on the local dimension of the electricity-development nexus developed by the authors by testing it and deriving useful guidelines for supporting future electrification actions in sub-Saharan Africa. All the steps are based on a real case-study as reference, i.e. a hydroelectric-based electrification programme implemented in the rural community of Ikondo, Tanzania, in 2005 by the Italian NGO named CEFA Onlus. The results of the model testing lead to a novel quantitative assessment of the most relevant dynamics affecting the local electricity-development nexus, and it provides a novel discussion on model results when its inputs take on different values, until the extreme ones, and as if the model were tested for different contexts than Ikondo. Policy testing is also performed for exploring model behaviour when subjected to different polices and exogenous decision-making processes. It provides a list of complementary activities to couple with electrification programmes for enhancing their positive impact on rural communities. These results can support the definition of useful guidelines and best practices for rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa, and they advocate an updating of the traditional monitoring and evaluation frameworks commonly used for assessing energy access projects.