Satellite Observations Reveal Inequalities in the Progress and Effectiveness of Recent Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa

Giacomo Falchetta,Shonali Pachauri,Edward Byers,Olha Danylo,Simon C Parkinson

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.03.007

Abstract

Summary Ending energy poverty is a necessary condition for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Boosting electricity access levels is, however, insufficient if consumption and reliability indicators stagnate. Previous research has shown that satellite-derived data can complement field surveys in tracking energy poverty but with little consideration for the multi-dimensionality of energy access and the role of demographic dynamics. Here, we process 6 years of high-resolution population, nighttime light, and settlement data for sub-Saharan Africa to derive multi-dimensional estimates of electricity access. Our results, validated against a range of sources, confirm a recent surge in electrification such that >115 million people gained access over the 2014–2019 period. Yet, they reveal wide inequalities in the quality of electrification, which cannot be observed in the existing statistics. The pace of electrification must more than triple to fulfill SDG 7.1.1 by 2030. Efforts could fall short if aimed solely at boosting numbers of national electricity connections.

Highlights

In 2019, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the global population without access to electricity had dipped below 1 billion for the first time.[1]
While recent evidence shows that falling costs might soon make electricity an attractive alternative for satisfying cooking needs,[5,6] most cooking activity in the region still relies on solid-biomass[2], contrary to what is targeted by Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7)
The remotely sensed estimates are not dissimilar from the aggregate numbers found in the SE4ALL Global Tracking Framework database, which reports a 6.3 p.p. decline in the share of the population without access between 2014 and 2017, such that the regional electricity access level grew from 38.3% to 44.6%

Summary

Introduction

In 2019, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the global population without access to electricity had dipped below 1 billion for the first time.[1] Yet, the numbers released in the Tracking SDG7: Energy Progress Report 20192 highlight that this progress has been uneven both across and within different macro-regions of the world.[3,4] The bulk of the improvements have been observed in Central and Southern Asia and a few areas of Africa. Nearly two-thirds of those still without access to electricity—about 570 million people—are located in sub-Saharan Africa. While recent evidence shows that falling costs might soon make electricity an attractive alternative for satisfying cooking needs,[5,6] most cooking activity in the region still relies on solid-biomass[2] (with the notable exception of South Africa, where electricity has gained a prominent role7), contrary to what is targeted by Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) The continent is home to 30 countries with electrification levels below 50%.2 At the same time, while recent evidence shows that falling costs might soon make electricity an attractive alternative for satisfying cooking needs,[5,6] most cooking activity in the region still relies on solid-biomass[2] (with the notable exception of South Africa, where electricity has gained a prominent role7), contrary to what is targeted by Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7)

Results

Discussion

Conclusion