Electric Power Substitution Research Articles

Unraveling effects of coal output cut policy on air pollution abatement in China using a CGE model

Recently frequent hazy weather in China caused by PM2.5 is mainly attributed to irrational energy consumption structure, so the policies cutting coal output and promoting electric power substitution were initiated. Facing some resistance in the policy implementation, what the proper target of cutting coal output is, or whether there is a need to cut electricity prices for electric power substitution, are still unknown or debatable. To exploring this knowledge gap, this paper set the eight action plan policy scenarios, in which the coal output cut is set from −3% to −10% respectively. Further, in order to observe whether the policy of cutting electric price will reduce the negative effects of action plan policy scenarios, the eight enhanced action plan policy scenarios were also set, in which the coal output cut is set from −3% to −10% respectively with the hypothetical electric price cut −3%. By using the developed computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the policy scenarios are simulated, and the economic and environmental effects are tested. The results showed that: First, in most policy scenarios, the environmental and economic effects were changing synchronously in inverted U shapes, but the policy to cut coal output would lead to positive environmental effects and negative economic effects. Second, cutting electricity price could contribute to promoting electricity substitution, though it couldn’t be conducive to improving the electricity structure. Third, the reduction of electricity price could also help to reduce the resistance in policy implementation. Consequently, for optimal environmental effects and economic resistance, it is recommended to set the policy target of cutting coal output as −6%, while the moderate reduction of electricity price is needed and set as −3%.

Model helps optimize energy sustainability in China

Researchers use a system-dynamics approach to predict how electric power substitution policy will affect energy supply and demand in China.

The effect of electric-power substitution policy on the energy transformation in China: A system-dynamics approach

Accurate forecasting of regional energy supply and demand is of great significance for exploring alternative energies and promoting a strategic energy transformation. To support this transformation in China, we predict the Chinese energy demand and explore connections between energy substitution and energy structure transformation. To study how the electric-power substitution (EPS) policy affects energy demand in China, we construct a dynamic management model based on the approach of system dynamics and implement it by using Vensim software. This model is used to simulate and assess how, under different scenarios, the EPS policy affects energy demand and CO2 emissions in China for the period 2015–2035. The simulation shows the indispensable role of the EPS policy in promoting the transformation of China's energy structure.

Analysis of Electric Power Substitution Development in Transportation Field and Research on Energy Conservation Efficiency Measurement Method

With the development of electric energy substitution in the field of transportation, related research has been deepened. In this paper, the current situation of electric energy substitution in the field of transportation is analyzed, and the calculation model of charging energy-saving effect of electric vehicles and the calculation model of charging energy-saving effect of ports and shores are constructed. Finally, some suggestions for the future development of electric energy substitution in the field of transportation are put forward. This study can provide theoretical support for further promoting the work of power substitution.

Multiple Scenarios Forecast of Electric Power Substitution Potential in China: From Perspective of Green and Sustainable Development

To achieve sustainable social development, the Chinese government conducts electric power substitution strategy as a green move. Traditional fuels such as coal and oil could be replaced by electric power to achieve fundamental transformation of energy consumption structure. In order to forecast and analyze the developing potential of electric power substitution, a forecasting model based on a correlation test, the cuckoo search optimization (CSO) algorithm and extreme learning machine (ELM) method is constructed. Besides, China’s present situation of electric power substitution is analyzed as well and important influencing factors are selected and transmitted to the CSO-ELM model to carry out the fitting analysis. The results showed that the CSO-ELM model has great forecasting accuracy. Finally, combining with the cost, policy supports, subsidy mechanism and China’s power consumption data in the past 21 years, four forecasting scenarios are designed and the forecasting results of 2019–2030 are calculated, respectively. Results under multiple scenarios may give suggestions for future sustainable development.

Subsidy policy discussion on the hydroelectric power substitution for scattered coal consumption: A case study of Sichuan Province

Scattered coal consumption in China has resulted in severe environmental problems in recent years. In the meantime, the rapid increasing capacity of renewable energy has exceeded the demand and therefore leads to idle capacity problem. In this situation, electric power substitution for scattered coal (EPSSC) has become a good choice in meeting this challenge. However, due to high cost for facility replacement and operation, most of the scattered coal users are not willing to adopt electric power facilities without policy subsidies. In this study, the policies of electricity price subsidy (EPS) and facility investment subsidy (FIS) are evaluated as effective methods to promote the willingness of different industries to implement EPSSC. Firstly, based on the principal of net profit-on-investment rate method, a model is established to describe the quantitative relationship between the amount of electric power substitution and the ratio of net profit over investment. Then, a case study of Sichuan Province is performed to discuss the effect of subsidy policies on the potential of EPSSC in four industries, including coal-fired boiler, self-generation coal-fired plant, coal-fired flue-cured tobacco plant and coal-fired building material kiln. Next, an optimization model combined with scenario analysis is proposed to provide the optimum portfolios of different substitution industries under a specific substitution target under different subsidy policies. The results indicate that, electricity price subsidy given to self-generation power plant is more cost-effective, while facility investment subsidy given to electric boiler and electric flue-cured tobacco plant is more cost-effective than the other industries. When the electric power substitution target is higher than 25%, the economic benefit of facility investment subsidy is superior to electricity price subsidy. If both EPS and FIS are implemented at the same time, the subsidy cost will be further reduced.

Research on Intervention Analysis Model of Medium-to-long-term Electric Power Substitution Policy

In order to study the quantitative impact of electric power substitution policy, a medium-to-long-term electric power substitution policy intervention analysis model is established. Based on the time series analysis model and the intervention function, the model considers the persistence of the impact time, and uses the proportion of China’s electric power consumption as an example for quantitative analysis. The results show that the medium-to-long-term electric power substitution policy intervention analysis model can quantitatively measure the impact of electric power substitution policies.

Simulation analysis of short-term electric energy policy in electric vehicle field

As an important field of electric power substitution process, it is of great significance to study the influence of electric power substitution policy on electric vehicle sales and electric power substitution. This paper establishes an electric power substitution time series intervening analysis model to simulate the sales data of new energy vehicles, and quantitatively analyzes the impact of short-term policies on electric vehicle sales and electric energy substitution. In view of the change of short-term subsidy policy, the sensitivity analysis is carried out, and the influence of the subsidy policy on the sales of new energy vehicles and the substitution of electricity are obtained under different rates of subsidy.

On the Development Strategy of Electric Energy Substitution

Energy substitution is very important for achieving environment-friendly and sustainable economic development. This paper investigates the development strategy of China's electric power substitution thoroughly and comprehensively from a systematic perspective. A model of electric power substitution strategic planning is proposed and a multi-dimensional space is established based on more than 20 kinds of indexes that influence electric power substitution. K-means algorithm is employed to seek the local optimal solution to find an optimized model in the multi-dimensional space. With our optimized mode, the electric power substitution situation of the provinces are divided into four major zones (capturing area, breakthrough area, gradual area, and gas and electric complementary rea). The result may provide an effective support for formulating the strategic development of electric power substitute and strategy implementation in the future.

Research on Energy Conservation Management Platform of Smart Grid Park

The energy conservation management platform of the park includes five parts: contract energy management, electric power substitution, new energy enterprises, local trading market, real-time monitoring of electricity consumption and enterprise energy efficiency analysis. It can help the enterprises improve the degree of mastery of their own electricity consumption while it can also improve the equipment of enterprises, offer new energy to enterprises, provide the electricity consumption guidance for the enterprises from all aspects, build demand response model, guide users to use the electricity scientifically, reduce the enterprise cost of electricity use, reduce the energy consumption of the enterprise effectively, improve the efficiency of energy use, guarantee the enterprise equipment to be operated safely, reliably, economically, promote energy conservation technology, energy efficiency improving technology, renewable energy technology development and application, and finally, promote the sustainable development of social energy conservation and emissions reduction at the same time.

GTAP-E-Power: An Electricity-detailed Economy-wide Model

Global economic analysis of energy and climate policy often uses an aggregate representation of the electricity sector (e.g., GTAP-E). However, disproportionate technological progress and policies across different generating technologies requires a more detailed representation that identifies and allows for substitution between generating technologies. GTAP-E-Power extends the GTAP-E model to include transmission and distribution as well as substitution between nuclear, coal, gas base load, gas peak load, oil base load, oil peak load, hydro base load, hydro peak load, wind, solar, and 'other' power. Electric power substitution is represented with a nested additive constant elasticity of substitution which, opposed to the traditional constant elasticity of substitution, ensures that the sum of demands for generation from each technology is equal to total demand for electricity generation. The primary purpose of GTAP-E-Power is to serve as guidance for implementing the GTAP-Power Data Base in a computable general equilibrium model with substitution between electricity generating technologies to inform economic, energy, and climate policy.

Feasibility Study and Electric Power Substitution Schedule for Photovoltaic Solar Greenhouse in Gansu

In order to overcome the constraints of natural environment for agricultural production, Gansu Province established the photovoltaic solar greenhouse project with the electric power substitution. This paper reviewed the development process of photovoltaic solar greenhouse over the years, and proposed typical substitute model of photovoltaic solar greenhouse combined with the actual situation in Gansu Province. This paper made comparative analysis of the cost between ordinary solar greenhouse and photovoltaic solar greenhouse, and evaluated the economy of photovoltaic solar greenhouse.

The Electric Power Substitution Status of Heat Pump Project and Evaluation of Energy Saving Benefit in Gansu Province

The Electric Power Substitution Status of Heat Pump Project and Evaluation of Energy Saving Benefit in Gansu Province