Abstract
To achieve sustainable social development, the Chinese government conducts electric power substitution strategy as a green move. Traditional fuels such as coal and oil could be replaced by electric power to achieve fundamental transformation of energy consumption structure. In order to forecast and analyze the developing potential of electric power substitution, a forecasting model based on a correlation test, the cuckoo search optimization (CSO) algorithm and extreme learning machine (ELM) method is constructed. Besides, China’s present situation of electric power substitution is analyzed as well and important influencing factors are selected and transmitted to the CSO-ELM model to carry out the fitting analysis. The results showed that the CSO-ELM model has great forecasting accuracy. Finally, combining with the cost, policy supports, subsidy mechanism and China’s power consumption data in the past 21 years, four forecasting scenarios are designed and the forecasting results of 2019–2030 are calculated, respectively. Results under multiple scenarios may give suggestions for future sustainable development.
Highlights
With the rapid growth of economy and the increasing consumption of fossil resources, China is facing problems of resource shortage, climate change and environmental governance [1], showing an increasing contradiction between social development and unsustainable energy structure
Market forecasting on electric power substitution projects is conducive to the government energy structure
Combined with cuckoo search optimization (CSO) algorithm, the extreme learning machine (ELM) method is improved, which overcomes the verified through correlation test
Summary
With the rapid growth of economy and the increasing consumption of fossil resources, China is facing problems of resource shortage, climate change and environmental governance [1], showing an increasing contradiction between social development and unsustainable energy structure. In order to mitigate the effects of pollution emissions, it is urgent to develop and promote highly efficient and green energy technologies in order to reach social sustainability. According to China Energy Statistical Yearbook (2017), 50% to 60% of particulate matter 2.5 (PM 2.5) air pollution comes from coal combustion and. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration of China has proposed that, by 2020, the total amount of electricity replacing coal and oil combustion is estimated to reach 130 million tons of standard coal, and the proportion of electric energy in the end-stage energy consumption should be 27%, increasing by about 1.5%. The additional consumption of electricity in the “13th Five-Year Plan” is set to be Processes 2019, 7, 584; doi:10.3390/pr7090584 www.mdpi.com/journal/processes
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