Electoral Preferences Research Articles

Динаміка розвитку формальної політичної участі в Україні в період 2014-2019 років

The article examines one of the types of political participation of citizens – formal political participation, which in turn includes voting in elections and referendums, active support for political parties, contacting of citizens with government officials and membership in trade unions. The author's attention is focused on such types of formal political participation as voting in elections and support for political parties in Ukraine in 2014-2019, which allows assessing the ability of institutions of representative democracy to solve problems that were relevant to citizens during this period. The article analyzes the quantitative indicators of turnout in the presidential elections (in 2014 and 2019), parliamentary elections (in 2014 and 2019), regular local elections (in 2015). It is identified that the turnout in this period is minimal for all the years of Ukraine's independence, and the fact of elections in conditions of military aggression affected the ability of citizens to participate in the election. Thus, turnout does not characterize the real willingness of Ukrainian citizens to use this type of formal political participation. Quantitative indicators of membership, activity support and trust in political parties were also analyzed. This led to the conclusion that political parties did not enjoy the support of the population during the research period. Such an attitude of citizens to political parties is explained by certain shortcomings of their functioning in Ukraine: insufficient interaction with the broad segments of society, inability to demonstrate effective solutions to current problems and show independence from large business elites. Indicators of formal political participation of Ukrainian citizens show that the institutions of representative power in the researched period were not fully capable of performing their social functions. This caused a change in the electoral preferences of citizens in the 2019 elections and led to the reform of electoral legislation.

Geopolitical orientation of Ukraine’s population in 2018–2020: dynamics of changes and current state

The article examines the changes in the geopolitical orientations of Ukraine’s population towards to European Union and Russian Federation in 2018-2020. The analysis is based on five representative surveys of the Ukraine’s population. Geopolitical orientations were measured with sociological tests "EU-geopol" and "RF-geopol". Also, based on the results of the 2020 survey, geopolitical orientations towards to the Baltic Assembly, V4, USA, GUAM and Turkey were additionally analyzed. This made it possible to compose a portrait of geopolitical openness / closeness from the point of view of a multi-vector geopolitical model. Obtained results allow us to draw a conclusion about the stable and dynamic aspects of the geopolitical orientations of Ukraine’s population. Dynamic aspect is the gradual improvement of geopolitical orientations towards to European Union. So, in the period from 2018 to 2020, additive index of the sociological test "EU-geopol" increased from –0.1 to 0.7 (the range of possible values for both tests is from –4 to 4). A stable aspect is constant negative geopolitical orientations towards to Russian Federation. The value of additive index of sociological test "RF-geopol" varied in the range from –2.0 to –1.7. It has been established that from the regional point of view, Ukraine is conditionally divided into two large zones: 1) Western and Central regions, characterized by a pro-Western and anti-Russian position; 2) Southern and Eastern regions, as well as Donbass, characterized by mixed views on issues of geopolitical cooperation. In terms of electoral preferences, respondents from all political forces, except for the For Life Opposition Platform, are oriented toward cooperation with European Union and against cooperation with Russian Federation. It is concluded that it is necessary to conduct additional detailed sociological research in the South-East of Ukraine in order to focus on the problem of geopolitical orientations. The corresponding results will make it possible to form adequate principles of information work and implementation of Western partnership programs in the specified region.

Регіональні еліти Донеччини та Луганщини після революції гідності та під час російсько-української війни

The aim of the study is to clarify the qualitative transformations of the regional elite, which took place under the influence of the Revolution of Dignity and the Ukrainian-Russian war, in the context of the strategy of de-occupation of the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. In the Donetsk region, the electoral preferences of the population were shaped by the preferences of local elites, while the preferences of local elites were shaped by the preferences of local businesses, creating a kind of closed political and economic circle. In 2014, after the overthrow of the Yanukovych regime, the regional elites of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions were out of action, inactive because they were afraid to take responsibility for decision-making. Thus, the transformation of the elites took place in a revolutionary way, completely changing the ruling elite to the opposition. At the same time, the transformation of the elite was due to its value reorientation, in particular at the levels of rethinking domestic and foreign policy. The theme of the war and its end was "monetized" in the political struggle of both national and regional elites. In 2015, the renewal of the regional and local elite took place neither quantitatively nor qualitatively, its circulation took place in the form of the rebranding of the Party of Regions. At the same time, the former monopoly of the "regionals" was destroyed in this election. The local elections of 2020, which took place after the reboot of the political system of Ukraine in 2019, were marked by new trends. "Opposition Platform - For Life (OPZZH)" was forced to compete with new political actors, including mayors. Regional elites are involved in solving the problems of the Russian-Ukrainian war, earning, on the one hand, political dividends and, on the other hand, having financial and business interests in the region, trying to maintain a monopoly on influence. The main political players (OPZZH, OP) during 2015-2020 did not actually change their pro-Russian vision of restoring Ukraine's state sovereignty through the Minsk process, the special status of Donbas, direct talks with representatives of the occupation administrations. Pro-Ukrainian representatives of regional elites, promoting their initiatives to improve the legal framework for SDDLR, IDP rights, the economic component of the region, solve both current practical problems and create a theoretical and practical basis for future de-occupation and restoration of statehood in the temporarily occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions. However, each of them has its own vision and promotes its own initiatives in a certain area, which is why there is no single vision of the strategy of de-occupation and reintegration. Keywords: elite, political elite, regional elite, Russian-Ukrainian war, temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, de-occupation.

РЕГІОНАЛЬНІ ОСОБЛИВОСТІ МІСЦЕВИХ ВИБОРІВ 2020 РОКУ: ПОЛТАВЩИНА

The article considers the issue of holding local elections on the example of one of the regions of Ukraine - Poltava region. The research hypothesis is based on the study of the dynamics of party representation in local governments of Poltava region as a central, iconic region to study the evolution of electoral sympathies and features of party building from the standpoint of public administration science. The author conducted a comparative analysis of the electoral preferences of Poltava residents in the local elections in terms of political parties and their dynamics in accordance with the 2015 elections. The development of democratic processes is directly dependent on the mechanisms and procedures for both local and parliamentary elections - the extent to which electoral law allows the majority of voters to understand the wide variety of political parties and candidates, allows opinion leaders to participate in elections. It is pointed out that there is a certain regrouping («political mimicry») of some political parties in the country, as a reestablishment of the «old political elite» and a campaign for local elections in a new composition and with a new name. The article focuses on strengthening the role of regionally influenced political parties in local elections. They allowed the local political elite to be more independent of all-Ukrainian parliamentary parties. Attention is drawn to local political party projects led by charismatic or financially influential politicians. It is noted that the local elections in 2020 continued the positive dynamics of change - from the previous convocation, only a quarter of people entered the Poltava Regional Council, and its membership was renewed by almost 70%. The dominance of the post-Soviet communist and Komsomol elites in the region, which were characterized by exceptional unity, is disappearing, although they retain some of their political electoral influence in the region. It is pointed out the need to further improve the provisions of the Electoral Code where it is necessary to lay down the principle of fairness in the distribution of seats on the main electoral list in accordance with the electoral rating of candidates.

Регіональні соціально-економічні асиметрії та поширення правопопулізму в Німеччині

The article is devoted to the influence of regional socio-economic asymmetries on the spread of right-wing populism in Germany using the example of the electoral preferences of the Alternative for Germany party. The division between East and West Germany is manifested in regional asymmetries that affect all major social, migration and economic indicators. The methods of cluster and graphic analysis were used to test the hypotheses. The results of the empirical study confirmed the hypotheses, firstly, regarding the direct influence on the direct influence of significant differences in socio-economic development between the western and eastern states of Germany and on manifestations in social relations, in particular, regarding the support of right-wing radical movements. Secondly, regarding the direct connection between violence, intolerance and low tolerance for other cultures and the number of votes for the right-wing populist party. The expediency of reducing regional asymmetries between the economic well-being of the eastern and western lands of Germany and the activation of policies aimed at the formation of tolerance and respect for other cultures in Eastern Germany are substantiated.

Эффект соседства в Большой Евразии: пространственный автокорреляционный и кластерный анализ

The article focuses on the methods of spatial and cluster analysis to study electoral behavior in the states bordering on the Russian Federation. This article aims to determine how electoral preferences of voters are affected by the spatial factor as well as how the proximity to Russia can strengthen the level of pro- or anti-Russia attitude of political forces in the border regions. The study uses Moran’s index to describe the neighborhood effect. Local clusters of spatial association were calculated by means of local Moran’s index, and four types of local clusters were determined. It was concluded that some regional clusters remain stable throughout several electoral cycles, some clusters, however, change. In some cases anomalies of electoral behavior were revealed. To conduct a comparative analysis of trends in electoral behavior in all regions bordering on Russia a two-dimensional matrix was created for comparing parties by ideological spectrum and loyalty to Russia. The spatial analysis revealed significant differentiation between electoral districts regarding anti- and pro-Russian parties’ popularity in 2007–2020.

The Republic of Kalmykia residents’ electoral preferences analysis on the eve of the elections to the State Duma of the eighth convocation according to a sociological study in 2021)

The Republic of Kalmykia residents’ electoral preferences analysis on the eve of the elections to the State Duma of the eighth convocation according to a sociological study in 2021)

O gwarancjach realizacji swobód wynikających z zasady wolnych wyborów w systemie prawnym u progu XX-lecia międzywojennego

On the guarantees of realization of freedoms resulting from the principle of free elections in the legal system at the threshold of the 20th interwar period. The principle of free elections is the basis for the functioning of contemporary electoral systems and elections held. The freedoms that nowadays determine the implementation of the principle of free elections, i.e. selecting and nominating candidates (lists of candidates), conducting an election campaign, and the freedom of electoral preferences while ensuring compliance with the directive of a fair election process, have their origins in institutions introduced and practiced shortly after the rebirth of the Polish state.

ЕЛЕКТОРАЛЬНА ІСТОРІЯ ПОПУЛІСТСЬКИХ ПРАВИХ ПАРТІЙ АВСТРІЇ, ФРАНЦІЇ ТА НІДЕРЛАНДІВ (1980-2017 рр.)

The article addresses the electoral history of the right-wing populist parties in Austria, France and the Netherlands in the period from the beginning of 1980s till 2017, as well as features inherent in these parties. Similarities and differences between the nationalist, anti-immigrant parties of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, French Republic and Austria have been shown. Analysis of historical underpinnings of the creation of the nationalistically-oriented parties – French Front National (“National Front”, from June 1st 2018 Rassemblement national – “National Rally”), Austrian Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (“Freedom Party of Austria”) and Dutch Partij voor de Vrijheid (“Dutch Party for Freedom”) has been conducted. Influence of various problems present in these countries’ societies on the electoral performance of the mentioned above parties has been analyzed. Research on the electoral trends and main reasons for the surge in popularity of the right-wing populist parties in Austria, France and the Netherlands has been carried out. Direct influence of the issue of illegal immigration (especially so – from the Muslim-majority countries in the Middle East) on electoral preferences of the Austrians, French and Dutch has been demonstrated. History of the creation of the modern-day leading right-wing populist political parties, as well as their ideological evolution has been thoroughly analyzed. The parties’ differences in terms of political, social and economic aspects have been shown. Reasons for the right-wing populist parties’ popularity in Austria, France and the Netherlands have been identified – among them, the most important ones are the increasing immigration of Muslims to these countries, as well as the growing distrust of the citizens of Austria, France and the Netherlands towards the governing bodies and policies of the European Union. It is demonstrated that the causes of such electoral performances are not only the historical underpinnings that have shaped both countries throughout centuries, but also the differences in Scotland’s and Wales’ economic development and the ideological distinctions within the Scottish and Welsh independence movements. Influence of internal rows and ideological divergencies within the National Rally, Freedom Party of Austria and Dutch Party for Freedom on the parties’ performance has been demonstrated.

ITALIAN WOMEN IN FRONT OF THE BALLOT BOX (ON THE POLITICAL PREFERENCES OF THE FEMALE ELECTORATE)

The paper focuses on the political preferences of the female electorate in the Italian Republic. In particular, the main factors that affect the electoral behavior of women are considered, data on gender preference are given in the last parliamentary elections of 2018 and European 2019. The author concludes that the main trend - the low involvement of women in the political life of the country has remained since the First Republic. Given this, the female electorate represents an unrealized resource that can be used by political forces and Italian parties in the struggle for voter votes.

Terrorism and Migration: An Overview

AbstractThis article provides an overview of the literature on the relationship between terrorism and migration. It discusses whether and how (1) migration may be a cause of terrorism, (2) terrorism may influence natives' attitudes towards immigration and their electoral preferences and (3) terrorism may lead to more restrictive migration policies and how these in turn may serve as effective counter-terrorism tools. A review of the empirical literature on the migration–terrorism nexus indicates that (1) there is little evidence that more migration unconditionally leads to more terrorist activity, especially in Western countries, (2) terrorism has electoral and political (but sometimes short-lived) ramifications, for example, as terrorism promotes anti-immigrant resentment and (3) the effectiveness of stricter migration policies in deterring terrorism is rather limited, while terrorist attacks lead to more restrictive migration policies.

Did Polish Bishops Support Andrzej Duda in the Presidential Campaign in 2020? Analysis of Institutional Messages of the Polish Episcopal Conference

The aim of the article is to increase the cognitive value in the area of political communication of Polish bishops during the presidential campaign in Poland in 2020, in particular to answer the question whether the Polish Episcopal Conference supported President Andrzej Duda politically in his candidacy for re-election. The research applied the analysis and synthesis method supplemented with elements of hermeneutics. The Polish Episcopal Conference remained an entity not politically involved at the level of institutional communiqués and did not support any of the candidates applying for the office of President of the Republic of Poland in 2020. The issue for further political and media research remains that of complementary forms of communication of the ecclesial institution and the way of expressing one's own electoral preferences, for example through the Catholic media.

El voto desde el norte

Using original survey data, we analyze the factors contributing to participation and preferences in the 2018 Mexican election among the Mexican diaspora in the United States. Our empirical analysis of public-opinion data reveals that exposure to Mexican mass media is a significant predictor of voting from abroad among immigrants and US-born Mexicans. Diaspora voters’ feelings of efficacy, their assessments of Mexican democracy, and structural factors yield mixed effects on the vote from abroad and candidate preferences. The study’s design also allows for comparison of the transnational electoral preferences of Mexican emigrants and US-born dual nationals.

<strong>Ciudad de México. Mujeres, política, participación y opinión pública</strong>

Este texto se propone realizar una aproximación general, descriptiva y panorámica de la presencia y participación de las mujeres en la política institucional de la Ciudad de México en las últimas décadas y en la actualidad. En primer lugar, se expone un recuento de su evolución histórico-cuantitativa en cargos políticos. En segundo lugar, se presenta una exposición de cultura política y preferencias electorales, de mujeres y hombres en dicha ciudad en nuestros días. También se analiza la situación de las mujeres en la política y la opinión pública según sexo, en 2012 y 2018. Sobre el primer punto, se observó el incremento progresivo en la participación política de las mujeres hasta llegar a la paridad. Con respecto al segundo, se muestra cómo, para algunas cuestiones, hubo sesgos de género, aunque en muchas características de la cultura política las semejanzas entre los sexos fueron más importantes.

Social Media and Fake News in the Post-Truth Era: The Manipulation of Politics in the Election Process

This article focuses on how virtual social networks affect socio-political life. The main theme of the article is how social networks such as Facebook and Twitter can direct voters’ electoral preferences, especially during election time, through the dissemination of manipulative content and fake news. The use of social media, which was initially thought to have a positive effect on democratization, has been extensively discussed in recent years as threat to democracy. Examples from the 2016 U.S. presidential elections, France, Brexit, Germany, the UK and Turkey will be used to illustrate the risks that social networks pose to democracy, especially during election periods.

Electoral Preferences Among Multiethnic Voters in Africa

Intermarriage is transforming Africa’s ethnic landscape. In several countries on the continent more than a fifth of all marriages now cut across ethnic lines. As a result, there is a growing population of multiethnic citizens who descend from diverse family lineages. The growth of Africa’s mixed population has the potential to affect politics in a variety of potentially far-reaching ways. In this article, we focus on one possible implication by examining the electoral preferences of multiethnic voters in contexts where ethnic bloc voting is commonplace. Drawing on survey data from Malawi and Kenya, we find that mixed individuals are less likely to support the party associated with their stated ethnic group, relative to mono-ethnics. We outline several possible explanations related to identity measurement, the link between identities and preferences, and social networks.

Voice or exit? Political corruption and voting intentions in Hungary

ABSTRACT How does perceived political corruption affect electoral preferences? Scholarship of Eastern Europe addressed this question primarily through the study of observational data. This study contributes to the existing scholarship by addressing the endogeneity problem and allows to causally interpret effects of perceived corruption on voting intentions. It combines hypotheses tested in earlier studies to investigate the impact of perceived political corruption on different electoral choices. A survey experiment in Hungary shows that exposure to political corruption makes respondents more likely to abstain from voting, less likely to support the incumbent party, and more likely to expect the anti-establishment party to win.

Determining Electoral Preferences in Mexican Voters by Computational Intelligence Algorithms

In the context of political activities, electoral processes are of interest for scientists, who usually tackle their research on this field from a social sciences perspective. Computational methods have been applied to predict the electoral preferences of voters in several countries; however, this has not happened in Mexico, at least as indicated by the absence in current scientific literature of computational studies to determine voting intentions of Mexican citizens. The authors of the present work aim at reverting such absence. The proposal of this paper consists of applying Computational Intelligence methods to automatically determine electoral preferences of Mexican voters. For this, data acquired by the Secretaría de Gobernación (Secretary of the Interior), about voting intentions of Mexican citizens in the 2012 elections are used. In the voter classification stage, a modified version of the Gamma Associative Classifier (MGAC) is used, given that this is one of the relevant models of the Associative approach to Pattern Classification. Additionally, Differential Evolution is employed to guide the process of relevant features selection. Results indicate that, when compared over six data sets extracted from the information published by the Secretaría de Gobernación, our proposal exhibits the best performance in three of these data sets, outperforming some of the best similar models present in the state of the art.

Partidos y sistema de partidos en las elecciones mexicanas de 2018

Este artículo analiza los cambios que afectaron a los partidos y al sistema de partidos mexicanos durante el sexenio del presidente Enrique Peña Nieto. Durante el periodo 2012-2018, asistimos a la erosión y, posteriormente, al derrumbe del sistema de tres grandes partidos, formado y consolidado durante el proceso de apertura política en México. Esa transformación puede apreciarse a partir de la evolución de las preferencias electorales, las crisis internas de los partidos y las modificaciones a la legislación electoral.

Do female politicians matter for female labor market outcomes? Evidence from state legislative elections in India

This paper studies the long-term economic consequences of electing women to state legislatures in India. I use data on age cohorts 15–24 between 1980 and 2007 and estimate the causal effect of exposure to female politicians during young adulthood on later life female labor market outcomes. To address the endogeneity of electoral preferences, I use close elections between male and female candidates, won by a woman, as an instrument for female political representation in a district. I find that exposure to female politicians during young adulthood leads to a large increase in the probability of women working in wage employment, specifically from areas with less entrenched gender bias, but has limited effect on self-employment or casual work. There is a corresponding increase in the likelihood of completing higher secondary education and selecting into sales, service, and clerical occupations in the private sector, which require a higher level of education. The evidence suggests that the employment effects are consistent with dual channels of a policy role and changing aspirations of young girls due to role modeling.