Geopolitical orientation of Ukraine’s population in 2018–2020: dynamics of changes and current state

Abstract

The article examines the changes in the geopolitical orientations of Ukraine’s population towards to European Union and Russian Federation in 2018-2020. The analysis is based on five representative surveys of the Ukraine’s population. Geopolitical orientations were measured with sociological tests "EU-geopol" and "RF-geopol". Also, based on the results of the 2020 survey, geopolitical orientations towards to the Baltic Assembly, V4, USA, GUAM and Turkey were additionally analyzed. This made it possible to compose a portrait of geopolitical openness / closeness from the point of view of a multi-vector geopolitical model. Obtained results allow us to draw a conclusion about the stable and dynamic aspects of the geopolitical orientations of Ukraine’s population. Dynamic aspect is the gradual improvement of geopolitical orientations towards to European Union. So, in the period from 2018 to 2020, additive index of the sociological test "EU-geopol" increased from –0.1 to 0.7 (the range of possible values for both tests is from –4 to 4). A stable aspect is constant negative geopolitical orientations towards to Russian Federation. The value of additive index of sociological test "RF-geopol" varied in the range from –2.0 to –1.7. It has been established that from the regional point of view, Ukraine is conditionally divided into two large zones: 1) Western and Central regions, characterized by a pro-Western and anti-Russian position; 2) Southern and Eastern regions, as well as Donbass, characterized by mixed views on issues of geopolitical cooperation. In terms of electoral preferences, respondents from all political forces, except for the For Life Opposition Platform, are oriented toward cooperation with European Union and against cooperation with Russian Federation. It is concluded that it is necessary to conduct additional detailed sociological research in the South-East of Ukraine in order to focus on the problem of geopolitical orientations. The corresponding results will make it possible to form adequate principles of information work and implementation of Western partnership programs in the specified region.