Эффект соседства в Большой Евразии: пространственный автокорреляционный и кластерный анализ

Abstract

The article focuses on the methods of spatial and cluster analysis to study electoral behavior in the states bordering on the Russian Federation. This article aims to determine how electoral preferences of voters are affected by the spatial factor as well as how the proximity to Russia can strengthen the level of pro- or anti-Russia attitude of political forces in the border regions. The study uses Moran’s index to describe the neighborhood effect. Local clusters of spatial association were calculated by means of local Moran’s index, and four types of local clusters were determined. It was concluded that some regional clusters remain stable throughout several electoral cycles, some clusters, however, change. In some cases anomalies of electoral behavior were revealed. To conduct a comparative analysis of trends in electoral behavior in all regions bordering on Russia a two-dimensional matrix was created for comparing parties by ideological spectrum and loyalty to Russia. The spatial analysis revealed significant differentiation between electoral districts regarding anti- and pro-Russian parties’ popularity in 2007–2020.