Election Results Research Articles

Social Media, Sentiments and Political Discourse ? An Exploratory Study of the 2021 Canadian Federal Election

Social media are widely used for online political discourse. Opinions shared on social media have different sentiments associated with them. Given the very high adoption rates of Twitter (now X) among adults, those who share their opinions on Twitter (X) not only represent a sizable segment of the society, but also influence (through emotion contagion) an even larger segment who are passive (non-contributing) users of the platform. Further, the discourse that is initiated on Twitter (X) typically spreads to other more traditional media. As a result, Twitter (X) is influential, which makes it useful to understand the factors related to the sentiments expressed in tweets. Such understanding can help policymakers to take actions that align with public needs and priorities. This research focuses on identifying the drivers (keywords) of sentiments associated with political discourse on Twitter (X). We also explore virality, i.e., how much a message (the tweet) spreads, and the relationship between sentiments and virality. Finally, we explore whether the clustering of tweets among sentiment and virality groups can improve the potential of social media content for predicting election results. Sentiment Analysis of 764,000 tweets related to the 2021 Canadian Federal election was followed by text clustering to identify sentiment-driving topics. We found some keywords predominantly present within a positive or negative sentiment that are suggestive of entities or ideas to invest in or mitigate by political decision makers. We were also able to find partial evidence for “negativity bias” by detecting a negative relationship between sentiment (positivity) and virality (number of retweets). Finally, we demonstrated that high positivity on the political discourse does not reflect election outcomes and examining Twitter (X) content in more neutral groups can improve predictive power. Our findings have implications for political decision makers and social media analytics researchers.

Political Issues in Social Media Campaigns for National Elections: A Plea for Comparative Research

As ideological, class-based voting has waned, issue-based voting has become more prevalent. Political parties can sway election outcomes by promoting certain topics, particularly on social media, which has become pivotal to political communication. However, our understanding of political actors’ social media strategies remains limited. This thematic issue, based on the international research project Digital Election Campaigning Worldwide (DigiWorld), aims to broaden such understanding. Examining 14 countries across Western Europe, Eastern Europe, North America, Latin America, and Oceania, the 10 articles in this issue reveal diverse approaches to issue-based political communication on social media, emphasizing the significance of comparative research in this field.

Digital Technologies as a Means of Exercising Electoral Rights of Сitizens of the Russian Federation

The paper provides an overview of digital resources used during election campaigns, highlighting their positive and negative sides supported by cases from practice. Electronic democracy is considered as a logical consequence of introduction of information technologies to the life of society. The paper analyzes remote electronic voting as a subsidiary way of implementing active suffrage in the Russian Federation; The author considers a "Mobile Voter" as an alternative to absentee ballots that meets the requirements of the time; digital services provided through the federal state information system "Unified Portal of State and Municipal Services", as well as the possibilities of artificial intelligence in the framework of elections. It is pointed to the promotion of digital resources for the implementation of not only active but passive suffrage, which is expressed in the possibility of collecting signatures by candidates online. We witness an increase in the importance of AI technologies during election campaigns, as well as the need for legislative regulation of the limits of their use due to the risks of spreading fake information that can influence the opinion of voters about running candidates and, as a result, the election results. Since artificial intelligence technologies are new, there are gaps in the legal regulation of the issue under consideration in the Russian Federation. Thus, the paper indicates the impossibility of solving the identified problem by the point adoption of certain norms and, using the example of foreign experience, emphasizes the need for a systematic approach to the development of an appropriate regulatory legal act and highlights the possibility of forming a new branch of law (a digital branch) due to the announcement of the adoption of the digital code.

Estimator Comparison for the Prediction of Election Results

Cluster randomized experiments and estimator comparisons are well-documented topics. In this paper, using the datasets of the popular vote in the presidential elections of the United States of America (2012, 2016, 2020), we evaluate the properties (SE, MSE) of three cluster sampling estimators: Ratio estimator, Horvitz–Thompson estimator and the linear regression estimator. While both the Ratio and Horvitz–Thompson estimators are widely used in cluster analysis, we propose a linear regression estimator defined for unequal cluster sizes, which, in many scenarios, performs better than the other two. The main objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to indicate which estimator is most suited for predicting the outcome of the popular vote in the United States of America. We do so by applying the single-stage cluster sampling technique to our data. In the first partition, we use the 50 states plus the District of Columbia as primary sampling units, whereas in the second one, we use 3112 counties instead. Secondly, based on the results of the aforementioned procedure, we estimate the number of clusters in a sample for a set standard error while also considering the diminishing returns from increasing the number of clusters in the sample. The linear regression estimator is best in the majority of the examined cases. This type of comparison can also be used for the estimation of any other country’s elections if prior voting results are available.

Economic Growth and Development of the Country through EVoting, Free and Fair Elections

Elections are an important means to elect the democratic governments for aspecific period to rule the country and work for the growth and development of thepeople. Voting, in this regard, is used as a tool in this democratic process. Thetraditional voting systems witnessed low turnout of masses, result delays, riggingand formation of handicap governments, litigation, protests and several otherproblems including high cost of this futile exercise. In this scenario, e-Voting(Electronic Voting) seems the ultimate solution to pull the county out of jeopardyand helps in the creation of popular governments duly elected by the majorityvotes of the masses. This study is an attempt to develop a solution model for allsuch countries, including Pakistan, where Elections are of paramount importance,but the outcomes of elections are compromised thereby resulting in weakdemocratic system which remains vulnerable and lacks popular support of massesin general.

THE POLITICAL FUNCTION OF PUBLIC FINANCE. THE POLAND EXAMPLE

The article concerns the function of public finance. The authors attempt to provide an answer as to whether, in addition to the classic functions of public finance – the allocative, redistributive and stabilizing functions – one can arrive at a claim that public finance also plays a political function. These reflections are based on the course of 2023 parliamentary elections in Poland and the analysis of election programs presented by the individual political parties. Extracted from the programs were all the promises which could impact the redistribution of public goods and services and would involve their public funding, as well as those which could impact the tax revenues of the state. The analysis leads to the conclusions that the scope of public spending and the degree of fiscalism were one of the main factors encouraging the voters to vote for a particular political party. Since election promises have a major impact on the election results and they can be turned into legal regulations impacting public budgets, the claim concerning the political function of public finance is justified.

How Would Preferential Voting Have Changed Taiwan’s 2024 Presidential Election?

Would the results of Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election have differed under preferential voting rules? Observers assume that the split in the opposition virtually guaranteed Lai Ching-te’s victory, but no analysis has aimed to measure ranked preferences across the three presidential candidates. This analysis combines original pre-election survey data that includes preference ordering of candidates with simulation analysis of the actual election results under the alternative vote and Borda count systems. The original survey finds Ko Wen-je would have won under both preferential systems, while simulating preference ordering using the 2024 election results suggests Lai would have won under alternative vote but lost to Hou You-ih under Borda count.

ELECTION RESULT PREDICTION

This study utilizes Text Blob for sentiment analysis of social media and news data to predict election results. By analyzing sentiment polarity, a comprehensive understanding of public opinion towards political entities is obtained. Machine learning algorithms are employed to build predictive models using historical election data. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of sentiment analysis in enhancing prediction accuracy compared to traditional methods. This research has implications for political campaigns and policymakers in gauging public sentiment and anticipating electoral outcomes. Keywords— Text Blob, sentiment analysis, election prediction, social media, machine learning.

Political Protestant Party, Protestant radicals in the Dutch electoral and parliamentary arena between 1918 and 2023.

The aim of the article is to analyze the ideological and programmatic evolution of the Protestant Political Party in the Netherlands. A hypothesis was put forward that this party itself does not undergo any major ideological changes, constituting a kind of ideological fossil. The study used a quantitative-qualitative method. Quantitative research is based on statistical analysis of election results and the distribution of seats. Qualitative analysis is based on an attempt to answer research questions based on literature analysis, historical, institutional, legal and systemic comparative studies. The program analysis carried out over the years showed that changes in the party’s political program concerned mainly the language and the addition of contemporary social and political problems. The change in the issue of woman’s political rights is a change forced by external institutions, pragmatic acceptance of the democratic system took place already in 1918.

Президентские выборы как показатель внутриполитической стабильности в РФ: федеральные и региональные аспекты

Subject. Presidential elections as an indicator of internal political stability in the Russian Federation. Purpose. Identification of factors of political stability in the Russian society capable to influence the electoral behavior of citizens, their attitude to various political institutions and actors, as well as affect the results of presidential elections. Results. The processes that took place during the election of the President of the Russian Federation since the beginning of the 2000s were considered. Based on the data of the Central Electoral Commission, the results of voting for the country as a whole and for individual regions were analyzed. It was noted that the ability to overcome difficulties at crucial moments for the state predetermined certain victories of V.V. Putin in elections. Methodology. The article uses general scientific methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, method of comparative analysis, system and structural-functional approaches, statistical method. Scope. The results of the study can be applied in the practical activities of public politicians, state and municipal government bodies, in the development of general and special courses in political science, conflict science, national and regional security, political regionalism. Findings. The stability of the functioning of the structured political system and the high percentage of voters in the presidential elections clearly lie in effective action to ensure the well-being of citizens, the traditions of the national political culture.

Трансформация партийной системы Грузии в начале XXI века

This article consists the detailed overview of the transformations of party system of Georgia at the beginning of the current century, since the time of «Rose Revolution» to present days. It considers the main events of «Rose Revolution» and the results of parliamentary elections in Georgia, between 2003 and 2020. Author also pays attention to the biggest conflicts between the governing party and the opposition, including «Rose Revolution» and the massive protest actions against the policy of the governing party, which have been organized by the oppositional parties. It reveals the political conflict between the governing party and the current president of Georgia, which may affect the party system of Georgia.

RESULTS OF LOCAL ELECTIONS IN HARGHITA COUNTY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2020

The results of the local elections in Harghita County, 27th September 2020. This study aims to faithfully depict the territorial distribution of the electoral decisions taken by the inhabitants of Harghita County at the local elections held on 27th September 2020. Based on official statistical data from the Central Electoral Office (https://locale2020.bec.ro/rezultate), the voting for mayors, local and county councilors, as well as president of Harghita County Council was thoroughly examined. 67 mayors were elected in the 21st Electoral District ‒ Harghita County, their political affiliation being as follows: DUHR (48), SDP (7), HAT (5), IC (5), FHP (1) and NLP (1). Of the 835 local councilor seats, most were won by DUHR (570), followed by HAT (138), SDP (49), NLP (34), FHP (14), CI (13), PMP (8), SRU-LUSP (3), PRO ROMÂNIA (2), while the Magyar Civic Party, National Unity Block, Humanist Power Party (Social-Liberal) and the Liberal and Democrat Alliance won a single seat each. Harghita County Council is comprised of 30 county councilors (with one less seat than in the 2016-2020 legislature), 19 being DUHR members, 4 HAT, 3 SDP, 2 FHP and 2 NLP. Borboly Csaba, the DUHR candidate, received a total of 69 822 votes (64.54% of the votes), thus winning his fourth term as president of Harghita County Council.

Russia’s Regional Parliamentary Elections (2021): Cleavage Structure and Trends of Changes

Abstract The article studies the cleavage structures of Russian regions based on the results of elections to regional assemblies in 2021 and analyzes changes compared to previous elections. Factor analysis reveals factors of territorial differences in party voting (electoral cleavages), issue dimensions and sub-dimensions of political space, as well as factors of demographic and socio-economic inter-territorial differentiation. Correlation analysis and multiple regression (OLS) help determine whether electoral cleavages have a political interpretation and a social basis. It demonstrates that the regional elections of 2021 largely reproduced the cleavage structure of 2016, but with some changes. What was common was the almost identical total number of participants and the factors of territorial differences in party voting. The difference was the increase in the number of ‘complete’ electoral cleavages and political subdimensions; the emergence of new actors; expansion of the agenda. It is also noted, that the confrontation between the ‘party of power’ and other participants in domestic politics and the socio-economic sphere constituted the political content of the main electoral cleavage, while the confrontation between market liberals and protectionists in the socio-economic sphere competed for second place with the socio-cultural confrontation. The most common social background of electoral cleavages remained urbanization, which was the main predictor in most cases. At the same time, the importance of economic activity of the population has increased, displacing the factor of demographic characteristics from second place.

Measuring Political Institutions in the Long Run: A Latent Variable Analysis of Political Regimes, 1810–2018

In this article, latent variable analysis is used to construct hybrid measure of political development based on the plausible common variation between objective and subjective indicators of political institutions. For a sample of 167 countries for the period 1810–2018, we chart long-term paths of political development. Our empirical strategy attempts to overcome the existing potential bias in the measures of democracy in the long run by extracting the institutional characteristics of political regimes, voter turnout, expert-based assessments and electoral outcomes into two latent indices of political development that can be compared both across space and time. The evidence reveals the remarkable persistence of multiple peaks in the world distribution of political development and uncovers contrasting long-term trajectories across countries traditionally featured in the political economy literature. Our findings add to the current debate about measurement of democratic backsliding.

Do Quality Candidates and Incumbents Still Matter in the Partisan World? Comparing Trends and Relationship Between Candidate Differentials and Congressional Election Outcomes, 1900–2022

The increase in elite-level polarization and the changing partisan nature of elections to the U.S. House led scholars to posit that candidate characteristics are minor considerations in determining these election outcomes. However, it is not clear if these trends extend to the U.S. Senate or if candidate considerations have lost the relatively minor predictive power they exhibited during the 2010s, particularly as partisanship continued to rise as a predictor of election outcomes. Using historical data on elections to the U.S. House and Senate from 1900 to the recent 2022 midterm elections, we test whether the incumbency advantage and candidate quality differentials are still salient predictors of congressional elections. We find that the incumbency advantage largely disappeared as a salient component of election outcomes for both chambers as partisanship increasingly shapes these outcomes. By contrast, we find that candidate quality differentials, while waning, still can play a considerable role in shaping congressional election outcomes, particularly in the Senate. We conclude by showing that the declining emergence of quality candidates may have played a pivotal role during the 2022 election cycle by costing Republicans control of the U.S. Senate.

Od zviadistů ke gruzínskému snu: volatilita a parlamentní volby v gruzínskem Džavacheti v letech 1992-2020

This study addresses the longstanding instability of the Georgian party-political scene, which has significantly shaped the nation's electoral dynamics. This instability primarily arises from the organization of parties centered around the popularity of their leaders. Starting with Gamsakhurdia and further strengthened by Shevardnadze and Saakashvili, this trend has begun to wane in the last decade. The consequences of this unstable system, established in the 1990s, are still evident, with Georgian elections often swayed by economic-populist projects led by charismatic leaders. Focusing specifically on Javakheti, this research examines how the Armenian minority's loyalty to the ruling party can be attributed to the party's charismatic leadership and connections with elites in Tbilisi. However, election results indicate a declining support for the ruling party in this region, reflecting a shift in political culture. The study explores the internal structure of voting behavior in Javakheti and highlights the influence of ethnic differences on political preferences. The conclusions drawn provide insights into the social control exercised by patrons, the dynamics of group versus individual rational choice, the impact of ethnic homogeneity and settlement concentration, the spatial influence on politics, and the legal framework governing the political mobilization of the ethnic minority.

India's General Election: Verdict 2024-A Reflection of Public Political Decisions

2024 has been a year of elections around the world, including the developed nations—the USA, the UK, the European Union and the Russian Federation alongside countries like India, Mexico, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran (the Islamic Republic of), South Africa, Republic of Korea (South Korea), Algeria, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Ghana, Mozambique, Madagascar, Venezuela, (the Bolivarian Republic of), Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea), Taiwan, Syrian Arab Republic, Mali, Sri Lanka, Romania, Chad, Senegal, Cambodia, Rwanda, Tunisia, Belgium, Dominic Republic, Jordan, South Sudan, Czechia (Czech Republic), Azerbaijan, Portugal, Belarus, Togo, Austria, El Salvador, Slovakia, Finland, Mauritania, Panama, Croatia, Georgia, Mongolia, Uruguay, Republic of Moldova, Lithuania Botswana, Namibia, Guinea Bissau and North Macedonia. This editorial is devoted to the verdict of India’s General Election 2024. The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have trickled in by defying most of the expectations of the exit polls. The graph of the results projected a different picture, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) grabbing 293 seats in the 543-member Parliament. At the same time, the coalition of opposition parties, collectively known as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), accomplished 234, which is 38 less than the required majority. As a twist in the election results, the regional parties made significant gains in many states. Congress bagged a strong revival, which was hugely attributed to the Bharat Jodo Yatra and Nyay Yatra under the architect of Mr Rahul Gandhi. Nevertheless, with its allies, BJP-led NDA is on board as Modi 3.0 leads the largest democracy.

Political News Framing Approach at Detik.com: Analysis of the 2024 Presidential Election Results Dispute

This research aims to find out the analysis of framing (framing/packaging) political news in online media Detik.com regarding the news of the dispute hearing of the 2024 presidential election results. To answer this problem, the framing method of the Zhongdang Pan and Gerald M Kosicki model was used. This research is included in qualitative. The data analysis used in this study was media text analysis using the framing analysis method using the Zhong Dang Pan and Gerald M. Kosicki model approach. The reserch results show that detik.com, in reporting news uses the inverted pyramid technique. Where the main topic of discussion discussed in the news is stored at the beginning of the news. In addition, there are several data obtained by news writers from the statements of sources to be used as data sources. The news structure uses 5W+1H, and the source does not throw many quotes.

Penerapan Algoritma Support Vector Machine untuk Memprediksi Tingkat Partisipasi Pemilu terhadap Kualitas Pendidikan

Elections are a democratic means of choosing leaders. Public participation in elections is important for a healthy democracy. The quality of education influences public participation in elections. Therefore, the government needs to improve the quality of education in the Pasuruan Regency area. This research aims to predict the level of participation in elections on the quality of education in Pasuruan Regency. This research uses the Education sector dataset obtained from BPS data for Pasuruan Regency in 2022 and the level of election participation obtained from the recapitulation of the 2019 election results. Data analysis was carried out in an experimental stage to determine the variables to be predicted (target variables) and the variables used to predict it (predictor variable) using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm with three kernels, namely linear, rbf, and polynomial. The findings show an accuracy of 88.4% for the linear kernel, 88.5% for the rbf kernel, and 88.5% for the polynomial kernel. The quality of education can influence the level of election participation. This is because high quality education can increase public awareness of the importance of participating in elections.

Analyzing election trends incorporating memory effect through a fractional-order mathematical modeling

This study proposes a new mathematical model to analyze and predict the results of a political election. In general, we predict or analyze the results using statistical methods; however, to minimize the effort of the study, we propose a fractional-order modeling approach. This study proposes a model to analyze and predict general election result trends in India, focusing on the state of West Bengal. To incorporate memory into the model, we consider the Caputo fractional derivative. The model solution’s positivity, boundedness, existence, and uniqueness were tested analytically. Numerical simulations were carried out to investigate the impact of the parameters and evaluate the model’s performance by incorporating the implications of the previous election for realistic situations. Following this, a qualitative analysis of the performance of political parties is discussed, and a prediction of the electoral victory is obtained.