Russia’s Regional Parliamentary Elections (2021): Cleavage Structure and Trends of Changes

Abstract

Abstract The article studies the cleavage structures of Russian regions based on the results of elections to regional assemblies in 2021 and analyzes changes compared to previous elections. Factor analysis reveals factors of territorial differences in party voting (electoral cleavages), issue dimensions and sub-dimensions of political space, as well as factors of demographic and socio-economic inter-territorial differentiation. Correlation analysis and multiple regression (OLS) help determine whether electoral cleavages have a political interpretation and a social basis. It demonstrates that the regional elections of 2021 largely reproduced the cleavage structure of 2016, but with some changes. What was common was the almost identical total number of participants and the factors of territorial differences in party voting. The difference was the increase in the number of ‘complete’ electoral cleavages and political subdimensions; the emergence of new actors; expansion of the agenda. It is also noted, that the confrontation between the ‘party of power’ and other participants in domestic politics and the socio-economic sphere constituted the political content of the main electoral cleavage, while the confrontation between market liberals and protectionists in the socio-economic sphere competed for second place with the socio-cultural confrontation. The most common social background of electoral cleavages remained urbanization, which was the main predictor in most cases. At the same time, the importance of economic activity of the population has increased, displacing the factor of demographic characteristics from second place.