Abstract
Would the results of Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election have differed under preferential voting rules? Observers assume that the split in the opposition virtually guaranteed Lai Ching-te’s victory, but no analysis has aimed to measure ranked preferences across the three presidential candidates. This analysis combines original pre-election survey data that includes preference ordering of candidates with simulation analysis of the actual election results under the alternative vote and Borda count systems. The original survey finds Ko Wen-je would have won under both preferential systems, while simulating preference ordering using the 2024 election results suggests Lai would have won under alternative vote but lost to Hou You-ih under Borda count.
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